Deutsche Bank has now been classified as a problem bank by FDIC and has been included in a list of banks to be watched. This is the biggest bank in Europe. It cannot be merged within Germany with Commerce Bank for there is just not enough equity to overcome the derivative losses. The only other candidate is BNP, but that is a French bank. This is where the fairytale of Euroland ends. They wanted to create a single currency, but they were unwilling to actually merge the economies. This is why our sources in Italy argue they are now an occupied country. They are dictated to but and request for help is rejected. This is what the “remain” crowd argue for against BREXIT?
A merger of BNP with Deutsche Bank would mean Germany is subservient to France. That is not “politically” acceptable. The entire “BAIL-IN” scheme was NOT because the government wanted to hold banks “responsible” but because a bailout of banks in one country would be seen as a transfer of money from one country to another. This exposes why the Euro is in serious trouble. There is ONLY the idea of a single currency and then Brussels will dictate what everyone else must do, but Brussels refuses to take responsibility for the debt and banking system of all of Europe.
From the very beginning when the committee in charge of creating the Euro came to our WEC in London, I warned that (1) there would be no single interest rate, and (2) without a debt-consolidation, the Euro would NEVER compete with the dollar and ultimately fail. The success of the USA was primarily (1) a single language, and (2) Alexander Hamilton consolidated all the debts of the member states making it the national debt federally. ONLY federal debt is at reserve status. Whatever California does is on them. Their bankruptcy does not threaten the entire country or the status of the dollar. California is no different from Bangladesh who also can issue debt in dollars. This proves the issue is NOT a single currency. The issue is the STRUCTURE!
In the EU, because the debts were never consolidated, then the failure of one brings down the whole because each member state is RESERVE status. The 50 states and municipalities in the USA can issue whatever debt they want in dollars and their status economically is no different than Bangladesh, Brazil, of Beruit issuing its debt in dollars.
There is the EURO CRISIS as Brussels has tried to be half-pregnant. That is why the Euro is doomed! It is STRUCTURE one for all (sometimes to a point) but one can take down all
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I listened to your interview with Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog. For the first time, I really understand that debt is money that pays interest. That is the real money supply which is leveraged. It is the interest that keeps expanding the debt and forcing taxes higher and higher until it can’t expand anymore. Is this the end game?
I only hope when this house of cards comes tumbling down, you will be there to help.
Please keep up your
PL
ANSWER: We will see interest expenditures exceed military next year in the USA. Only then will people perhaps begin to pay attention to what I have been saying. Can you imagine that the debt of all nations is about to explode with the slightest uptick in interest rates? We will be going over this issue at the WEC. Just look at Italy when rates soared from 0.3% to 2.5% in a single day. When I say interest rates can rise DRAMATICALLY, this is no joke. The Quantitative Easing in Europe and Japan have destroyed their bond markets. The central banks buy everything. The Bank of Japan bragged how they bought 97% of the new debt. Hello! That means there is no market!
People always ask me why I do what I do meeting with political governments around the world and I do not charge them a dime! The answer is simple. If I took money from them, then I would be beholding to them. Strangely enough, they call me because they know I will tell the truth. The research we put out is NOT for sale to the highest bidder to be manipulated to support some agenda like they do in everything else right down to Global Warming. Yes, there are governmental agencies that pay for Socrates. That is different from meeting with me personally.
I am called (1) because there is no conflict of interest and (2) our computer is tracking the entire world and its forecast cannot be manipulated. So do you want to call someone who you pay to fashion studies to support whatever political agenda you have today? Or do you really want to know when the shit will hit the fan?
Paper money used to pay interest during the civil war. Nothing has really changed. Debt is now just money that pays interest. We have returned full circle
I do not know how else to say this. Cryptocurrencies are an ASSET CLASS and they are something to TRADE. All this stupid nonsense that they will revise the world monetary system with no pain and governments will be brought to the knees without firing a shot, I really do not know who makes up this nonsense. They clearly do not look at history nor do they understand human nature. We WILL crash and I hope the BURN then becomes possible where we get reasonable reform without the totalitarianism that is so common.
Cryptocurrencies are a trading vehicle – that’s it! It will by no means produce sweeping reform without the crash and burn. New ideas are adopted ONLY after a crash and burn. They called Keynes a nutjob and his ideas would be inflationary because the prevailing view was austerity. ONLY after the Great Depression did they turn to Keynes – NOT before.
As for the smartass remark, I am “too old” to understand the new age, I have been a programmer my whole life and what we have developed is still far ahead of the current norm. The last time I heard that remark was when I was an adviser to Temple University. Merrill Lynch was trying to see the way to leverage your returns which ended blowing up Orange County California and resulted in lawsuits of over $2 billion from various sources back in 1994. The scheme was to buy 30-year bonds, short 10-year against them, and capture the difference. Then leverage $1 million into $10 million and the tiny spread would double the interest rate on the original capital. The Temple Board told them I had to approve it. The analysts/salesmen flew in, showed me the scheme, I rejected it and warned them that if interest rates rose, the trade would explode in their face. Their losses would be reversed leveraged. They went back to Chicago, reworked the numbers, flew back and said see it would be a break even. I laughed, told them they assumed they would be able to get out of a trade that went bad without volatility. That was a fool’s game. I explained that this was the trust fund for the university they wanted to speculate with. I would not approve it. They then told the board I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money.
So the last time I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money was when I was 45. Human nature is always the same. When they have to say I’m “too old”, it means they have no legitimate argument to put forth. Such transformations of this magnitude take decades. NOT a single one of the big IT companies are doing ANYTHING with cryptocurrencies. Just trade it and be happy. Why put out this nonsense how it will change the world in a matter of weeks or months why that is absurd. They rejected Keynes. It took the collapse of the world monetary system before that adopted Keynesianism. There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that cryptocurrencies will just change the world without a CRASH & BURN.
Business Insider has published a map of the top 10 most expensive places to live and work and guess what – Seattle is in the list even before they impose this new outrageous tax of $275 per employee for companies that do more than $20 million in business annually. They claim it is for the homeless people which is really nonsnse. It’s like New York City taxing cigarettes to make people stop and when they do, they taxed the electronic cigarettes because their revenue declines. Once a government gets its hand on a tax, it is used wherever they need money and they never let it go. Like tolls on bridges and tunnels that were said to be there just to pay for the construction. The tunnels into NYC made so much money, the Port Authority then used it to build the World Trade Center. Then because it was government, they did not put sprinklers in the stairwells to save money where anyone else would have gone to prison for life.
The number of businesses being hit is not just Amazon. These cities are becoming the place to avoid and they just never stop with the taxes. They go through money like it is water to be flushed down the toilet.
Seattle has certainly reached the top our the list of where NOT to recommend any business establishment. This is how empires, states, and cities die. They just keep imposing more and more taxes without end so it simply becomes less burdensome to pick up and leave. The top states where there is now a net migration out are California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. Cities that are dying rapidly are like Chicago. Seattle’s homeless tax will most likely be the straw that breaks the back of that city as well.
What is astonishing is the fact that Amazon put a hold on its development of offices there, and the city wanted to call this extortion justifying criminally charging Amazon? Clearly, nobody should even consider Seattle as a place for business and the aggressiveness and insanity of taxation in that city will not end here. California is also in the same direction. This “liberalism” is actually totalitarianism for they then justify punitive actions against anyone who disagrees. DO NOT set up businesses in California up to Washington State. It just may be time to leave before it is too late and it becomes a crime to migrate. New Jersey put in an EXIT TAX. You have paid your taxes in that state all your life. You reach the point you cannot afford to retire there. They then impose a tax to leave the stat
Erdogan has asked all the Turkish people to convert their dollars to Turkish Lira. This is a desperate act. The rumors behind the curtain are running wild. Many are concerned that Erdogan’s policies have just destroyed the confidence in his government both internally and externally. Turkey is now on watch for a possible monetary collapse. The key monthly closing resistance stands at 42425.
QUESTION: Martin
Thanks again for all you do.
The subtext of most of what you talk about is overwhelmingly negative. Inflation, deflation, earthquakes, disease, government default, over taxation….. etc. Am I correct in thinking that despite your advice you anticipate most of your readers, even the most wealthy, will be left with little to hand over to their children and grandchildren by the time we get through to 2032 +/- ?
Regards
P
ANSWER: If someone stands in front of you and says they are going to punch you in the face, do you
(1) just stand there and let me hit you,
(2) move, or
(3) put up a guard and defend yourself?
Yes, the climate is turning back to cold. Yes, a single volcano can result in worldwide famine if it is big enough to block the sun for a few months as was the case with Huaynaputina which is a stratovolcano in Peru that erupted in 1600. Then there was the Year without a Summerwhen it was snowing in New York City during July. This may sound horrible, but it is also an OPPORTUNITY to shift investment money at the right time into commodities to survive. That is aside from the fact that you should be wise and stock up on some supplies and canned food in case that event unfolds. Just look at it as buying fire insurance just in case.
A disease is often a lifeform. Viruses mutate and we can think we are clever and create drugs to kill them, but then they mutate and defend themselves against our defenses with the object of infecting humans or killing us. That is their role in nature and we all have our purpose in this environment. There is the Nipah virus so far confined to southern India for which there is no cure and it kills 75% of the people infected. This is nature out to get us. That is simply who the workd works. We cannot pretend it does not exit. It’s just best we know where it is and stay out of that region.
Sweden has issued a booklet to its people telling them what to do in a crisis or in war comes with Russia. An economic crisis is coming and the question becomes do you only want to hear the nice things and then find out your pension is gone as they are in Illinois, or do you want to prepare for the worst (buying life insurance) but hoping for the best (not collecting on it)? The government employees in Decatur, Illinois may soon find that they have no jobs because the town can’t pay those on pensions sucking up the money that prevents current employees from earning a living.
To me, this like more like Joseph warning the Pharaoh that there is a cycle of 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought. If you know what is coming and prepare for it, you survive. It is as simple as that. We can hide our head in the sand and pretend nothing will every happen or go wong. Then we are unprepared and we will fail. I get called into crisis management problems because the people so close to it are emotionally blinded and cannot see the solution.
What is left at the end of 2032? The British Empire fell but Britain is still there. The fall of the United States may end in the breakup of the country into regions based upon huge cultural differences. One example that illustrated the vast differences in culture between regions of the United States is when California agreed to pay for a sex change of a convicted murderer who is serving a life sentence no less. It is hard to imagine any state in the South or Mid-West agreeing to such a procedure. California is raising taxes because its state employee pensions are underfunded. They have the money to pay for sex changes for people they have no intention of ever releasing? Many in the USA regard California as being just so far left, it should indeed just separate and become its own country.
The monetary system will change. That is beyond question. It is also beyond question that the dollar will rise and the rest of the world begins to crumble from its economic mismanagement of government. That dollar rise will break the back of the monetary system and the NUMBER one thing to survive will be tangible assets – stay away from government bonds. So will you have something left at the end of the day to leave your grandchildren? Yes, if you listen and understand the shifts underway and realize that there is a difference between assets and cash.
The system will break. I am doing what I can for my grandchildren. I have an expiration date so I will not have to be here after 2032. By exposing the problems and showing what the solutions are, just maybe when the money tree comes crashing down, we can all speak up and be heard to make sure what comes thereafter will be a reset in the proper direction compared to totalitarianism. EVERY Republic and Democracy has collapsed because of corruption. If you really care about your grandchildren, then understanding which direction we have to push this falling money tree to create an OPPORTUNITY for them will be extremely important.
This is WHY I have continued to do the WEC events. We have to stay on top of what is happening globally to survive the future. If there is an urgent change in anything discussed at these events I will send an email notifying attendees of what has taken place. These events are never about my OPINION. They are about reviewing the entire world to enable us to see the trend and have CONFIDENCE in acting accordingly.
So what I highlight may seem negative, but we learn from our mistakes, not our victories when we think we can walk on water. Some governments listen and take action, but they are the rising stars not the dominants ones now!
QUESTION: I am just a little guy who invests in mutual funds and a few stocks. Ever since I started reading your blog, I have felt a sense of comfort in knowing that eventually, everything will work out because all this has happened before. It is also nice not to feel like I am swinging blindly. Thank you for the peace of mind you have given me.
For a guy like me, is there a date that I should pull all my money out of the US stock market and invest in a mutual fund that is specific to China and the far east?
Or is it not that simple?
KB
ANSWER: Not yet. We have to first get through this readjustment through the Monetary Crisis Cycle. China will rise, but it is just not quite ready for prime time. Just stay away from bonds right now. Interest rates can soar faster than anyone can imagine. We see Italian rates rise from 0.3% to 2.5% in a single day. I have tried very hard to explain that sometimes it is the private sector in trouble, and at other times, the crisis is in government. You have the dollar soaring. So be mindful that the US stock market has not broken out in US dollars and the consolidation for the first half is not yet finished. Of course, if you are not US$ based, chances are you are now watching the US share market make new record highs.
COMMENT: I spoke this “pretend” analyst who use to be a goldbug and is now a cryptobug. Boy does he hate you. I really had to laugh for he said your computer is a fraud and your forecast on the euro was only correct because you organized it with central banks. I asked him who write more than 500 reports on every market around the world each and every day? He said you did with staff. I asked him, how many people would it take to do that? He had no answer.
I probably would have lost an equal amount in BitCoin buying it at the high based on his emails. Thank you for opening my eyes to see everything globally. It really has helped.
GHH
REPLY: I know. I use to get real hate mail from the goldbugs. Not it is the crypto people. Here is the S&P500 express in various currencies. You will note that the market is consolidating in US$ terms, but it is starting to breakout and make all time new highs in various currencies. This is what I mean that each and every one of us will act according to our own self-interest. That is Smith’s invisible hand.
I promised I would not leave anyone behind. Nevertheless, we do not do ANY advertising and prefer to keep the individual readership small. Our bread & butter is institutions. They, on the other hand, prefer no interviews with mainstream media and to shun advertising, It is a difficult road to following through the raindrops.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; FX Street named you forecaster of the year for your Swiss franc euro peg forecast that also nobody else saw coming. I remember you were named here in Canada as Economist of the Decade for your calls during the 1980s with the 1987 crash and the crash in Japan. I by no means want to be on the opposite side of Socrates. My question is this. You have said that 2018 is just the beginning. This is all coming unglued very rapidly. Is this the Monetary Crisis Cycle and how the world will be torn apart is just a few years?
EM, Vancouver
ANSWER: Thanks for that magazine article. Can’t believe you saved it that long. Yes, when I say we can see a monetary reset as soon as 2021, this is no joke. There are critical points in a number of markets that I will reveal in Singapore. These are the lines in the sand. Once we cross them, there is no going back. This is a global systemic collapse. I cannot emphasize how serious this is going to be.
As long as you understand what is coming and we can draw that line very clearly without personal OPINION, then you will be just fine. Those who constantly believe in fairytales, well that will be a different story. I am not trying to sell you any investment be it land, gold, cryptocurrencies, or stocks. This is about INDEPENDENT research computer driven by just the facts – no agendas.
This is NOT some new age of KNOWLEDGE or Artificial Intelligence ruling the world. Those are complete nonsense. We have to crash and burn before we every reach some new age of reform.
The Euro Crisis is emerging rapidly. The 2Yr BTP Italy debt has jumped 150bp and is now wider by 2.50%. The ECB has been intervening BECAUSE as we have warned, there is NO BID. Interest rates for Italian debt have almost doubled in a matter of days. Who in their right mind will buy government debt when there is such uncertainty? I have warned that interest rates in Europe can skyrocket beyond anyone’s imagination.
The Euro is now down to 115 zone where critical support now lies. The dollar bears are getting slaughtered as usual for they have had their head in the sand and cannot see anything come from outside the country.
The absolute ONLY way to SURVIVE is to maintain a GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE. Yes, we schedule WECs around the cycles to make sure they are more interesting. Singapore will be no different. Welcome to the Euro Crisis, the fall of the West, and the rise of Asia.
Attendees will be receiving a very special report on the Rise of China
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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