Posted originally on CTH on December 6, 2025 | Sundance |
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is questioned about the Trump administration strategy or lack thereof. “Yes, there’s a strategy,” Greer says in this new interview. “First of all, you don’t change 70 years of trade policy overnight. And second of all, when some people say, ‘Oh, well, this is chaos. What’s your strategy?’, what they really want to know is can we go back to how it was before? And that’s not going to happen.”
The interview is in an audio file presented by Politico and shared below. This is some really good information on the various free trade agreements and the regions represented by some of our largest trade partners. Well worth listening to as you go about your day and travels today. Embed below:
USTR Greer notes how the tariffs are being used, the upcoming Supreme Court decision, the need for congress to codify the tariff regime in legislation and the various regional strategies for the deployment of countervailing duties.
Posted originally on CTH on December 5, 2025 | Sundance
In the world of Trumpian geopolitical trade stuff, three issues are very interesting to watch. (1) The strategic reset with Russia which could break the official western construct of financial control. (2) The proactive and defensive positioning of Mexico (desperate attempt to retain economic attachment), and (3) the certain dissolution of the USMCA what Canadians call CUSMA.
Canadian media are starting to realize something we have talked about on these pages for years; President Trump intends to end the USMCA because the USMCA was used as a fracture point to eliminate NAFTA.
Wall Street, the U.S. Congress, the massive K-Street lobbying network around the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the entire political apparatus of business and industry would never permit the end to NAFTA; too many trillions at stake. So, President Trump replaced NAFTA with the interim USMCA, which was better but factually more useful in elimination of the original.
Now, as we have discussed by highlighting President Trump’s no-so-subtle words on the issue, the Canadian media is realizing the USMCA will be dissolved in favor of two independently negotiated bilateral trade agreements; one with Canada and one with Mexico.
🚨MAJOR BREAKING
Trump signals that he could EXIT from USMCA entirely.
This is EXTINCTION LEVEL to Canada.
He going to do it. I have a strong feeling about this.
(CTV) – U.S. President Donald Trump could decide next year to withdraw from the Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA), Politico reported on Thursday, citing U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
“The president’s view is he only wants deals that are a good deal. The reason why we built a review period into CUSMA was in case we needed to revise it, review it or exit it,” Greer told Politico’s White House bureau chief Dasha Burns in a podcast episode that airs Friday.
Greer also raised the idea of negotiating separately with Canada and Mexico and dividing the agreement into two parts in the podcast, adding that he spoke with Trump about that possibility just this week.
The White House, Canadian and Mexican governments did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.
Trump on Wednesday said that the CUSMA agreement – which faces an upcoming review- will either be left to expire or another deal will be worked out.
The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020 and was negotiated during Trump’s first term as president, requires the three countries to hold a joint review after six years. (link)
I have talked to a lot of Canadians on the issues of economics and trade. As a result, I can say with complete sincerity that not since the COVID-19 examples of New Zealand (lockdowns) and Australia (vaxx), has a nation engaged in such a level of mass cognitive dissonance as the govt of Canada on the issue of economics and trade – in the past few years. It is stunning.
To understand the reality of the situation Here’s an IN-DEPTH LINK. Apparently, few really understand the full scope of the issues.
For those who have followed along with the U.S-Canada trade positioning, the current status of conflict between the Trump administration and the government of Canada is not surprising. {GO DEEP}
Going all the way back to the replacement of NAFTA, with the USMCA, President Trump always said he did not favor multilateral trade deals with multiple countries; instead, he preferred bilateral free trade agreements.
Some people have construed the bilateral preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements.
While the outcome of the Trump approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.
As a result, the USMCA -or CUSMA as said in Canada- is not in alignment with a bilateral free trade agreement, and the conflicted differences between trade with Mexico and trade with Canada are an outcome of this dynamic. The solution is simply to eliminate the multilateral in favor of the bilateral approach. This is the objective of President Trump as expressed.
There is zero leverage on the Canadian side of the trade negotiation, zero.
There is nothing that Canada provides to the USA that the USA cannot create, produce or secure independently. The nature of the economic relationship is entirely lopsided, with the USA getting nothing in return for the massive outflow of U.S. dollars (USD).
Our trade relationship with Canada is based on the U.S. government simply liking our northern neighbor and giving them terms and conditions for their economy to benefit from proximity. Take the friendship out of the equation, which is key to understanding the polar political ideology of the two nations, and there is simply not much reciprocal trade benefit.
Take away the soft wood lumber, we have our own. Take away the oil, we have multitudes of domestic production options. Take away the minerals, again we have both our own unused capacities and enhanced trade agreements with other Free Trade Agreement nations.
Then look at the possibility of a strategic U.S-Russia economic alliance, and all those contracted icebreakers take on new meaning.
Some may think this is an overly harsh view of our Canadian friends. However, the Canadian majority believes in climate change and unfortunately leftist politicians control their industrial economy. Canada is in the middle of a mass formation psychosis. Canada needs to get hard, dispatch cultural Maxism and put deliberate men in charge.
A Canadian conservative is essentially a politically correct Mitt Romney; not strong enough to make a difference.
The best thing President Trump can do for our Canadian friends is to help strategic regions while their overall economy collapses around them. Then we hope guys like this surface to rebuild the Great White North.
Posted originally on CTH on November 1, 2025 | Sundance
On Friday President Trump noted (off-the-cuff) he was ambivalent to the trade interests of Canada and had no intention to restart discussions. However, Trump also said he holds no personal animosity toward Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for the stupid and antagonistic move they made in purchasing a manipulative television ad intended to undermine the Trump trade position.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed he did apologize to President Trump for the Canadian effort.
GYEONGJU, South Korea, Nov 1 (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Saturday he had apologised to U.S. President Donald Trump over an anti-tariff political advertisement and had told Ontario Premier Doug Ford not to run it.
Carney, speaking to reporters after attending an Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea, said he had made the apology privately to Trump when they both attended a dinner hosted by South Korea’s president on Wednesday.
“I did apologise to the president,” Carney said, confirming comments by Trump made on Friday.
Carney also confirmed that he had reviewed the ad with Ford before it aired but said he had opposed using it.
“I told Ford I did not want to go forward with the ad,” he said.
The ad, commissioned by Ford, an outspoken Conservative politician who is sometimes compared to Trump, uses a snippet of Republican icon and former President Ronald Reagan saying that tariffs cause trade wars and economic disaster.
In response, Trump announced that he was increasing tariffs on goods from Canada, and Washington has also halted trade talks with Canada.
When departing South Korea earlier this week, Trump remarked he had a “very nice” conversation with Carney at that dinner but did not elaborate. On Friday Trump still said the United States and Canada will not restart trade talks. (read more)
Carney also noted he had great discussions with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping but did not negotiate any trade deals.
Instead, the Canadian Prime Minister emphasized the release of Canadian citizens detained in China and requested that Beijing not interfere in Canadian domestic politics.
The irony is strong.
The current USMCA (CUSMA) trade pact covers approximately 60% of U.S-Canada trade; it is the remaining 40% is being debated and argued.
President Trump’s position is pragmatic. He would prefer to just deal with 100% of the trade sectors in one bilateral free trade agreement; hence, his ambivalence until the USMCA is dissolved.
Canada, on the other hand, is entirely dependent. They demand all trade conflicts be resolved without opening up the USMCA. Again, another conflict. Canada is like the dependent spouse in a divorce arguing for child support payments when the “children” are in their twenties.
The current status is President Trump pulling back completely from discussions with Canada, while the various provincial Premiers and Prime Minister Mark Carney agonize over the issue.
At a certain point, when the entire national economic plan of Canada is based on “Donald Trump bad”, and all political messaging internally is to proclaim they have no alternative policy positions, the Canadians might not realize it, but they are confirming complete and total dependency on the nation Donald Trump represents.
What took place in last week’s tour of Asia, makes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney look very small.
Posted originally on CTH on October 28, 2025 | Sundance
For those who have followed along with the U.S-Canada trade positioning, the current status of conflict between the Trump administration and the government of Canada is not surprising. {GO DEEP} Going all the way back to the replacement of NAFTA, with the USMCA, President Trump always said he did not favor multilateral trade deals with multiple countries; instead, he preferred bilateral free trade agreements.
Some people have construed the bilateral preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements.
While the outcome of the Trump approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.
As a result, the USMCA -or CUSMA as said in Canada- is not in alignment with a bilateral free trade agreement, and the conflicted differences between trade with Mexico and trade with Canada are an outcome of this dynamic. The solution is simply to eliminate the multilateral in favor of the bilateral approach. This is the objective of President Trump as expressed.
That said, the USMCA covers approximately 60% of U.S-Canada trade, and the remaining 40% is being debated and argued. President Trump would prefer to just deal with 100% of the trade sectors in one free trade agreement; hence, his ambivalence until the USMCA is dissolved.
Canada, on the other hand, continues to demand that all trade conflicts be resolved without opening up the entire USMCA. Again, another conflict. Canada is like the dependent spouse in a divorce arguing for child support payments when the “children” are in their twenties.
The current status is President Trump pulling back completely from discussions with Canada, while the various provincial Premiers and Prime Minister Mark Carney antagonize over the issue.
At a certain point, when the entire national economic plan of Canada is based on “Donald Trump bad”, and all political messaging internally is to proclaim they have no alternative policy positions, the Canadians might not realize it, but they are confirming complete and total dependency on the nation Donald Trump represents.
As the Canadian government continues demanding President Trump pay attention to their needs, U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, informs the Carney administration, and various stakeholders, any trade agreement is no longer possible.
CANADA – The U.S. ambassador to Canada doesn’t foresee a new security and economic deal between Canada and the United States — which could see the reduction or full removal of tariffs amid an ongoing trade dispute — before the new year.
“We have stopped negotiations with Canada,” Pete Hoekstra said in a keynote address to the Coalition of Concerned Manufacturers and Business Canada on Monday. “I don’t see any way that there will be an agreement before American Thanksgiving.”
“I’m not sure what it’s going to take to get people back to the table in a constructive and positive mode,” he added.
Hoekstra’s comments come just days after U.S. President Donald Trump said he is terminating trade talks with Canada and increasing levies on Canadian goods by 10 per cent in response to an anti-tariff ad by the government of Ontario which featured the voice of former Republican U.S. president Ronald Reagan. Ontario has since pulled the ads, effective Monday.
Government sources had told CTV News that Canadian officials were hopeful there could be movement on a steel and aluminum deal by this week’s APEC Summit in South Korea.
[…] Asked by event attendees whether he sees any way to get negotiations back on track, such as an apology for the ad, Hoekstra said: “No.”
Speaking more broadly about the state of negotiations, Hoekstra laid the blame at Canada’s feet for the soured relationship.
Hoekstra has previous expressed his distaste for what he’s called “anti-American” sentiment in Canada, and on Monday pointed to some provinces removing U.S. liquor from store shelves and Canadians being discouraged from travelling south of the border as examples.
He also said the ad amounts to foreign interference, with the U.S. Supreme Court set to start hearing arguments on the legality of Trump’s tariffs on Nov. 5, as well as some gubernatorial and state legislative elections happening next week.
“Canada burnt the bridges with America,” he said. “Donald Trump did not slam the door.”
“Donald Trump could do the only thing that a leader of a sovereign nation could do when a neighbour, another sovereign nation, decided to interject itself into American politics,” he added. “Canada slammed that door shut all by itself.” (read more)
Canada is trying to force President Trump to give them preference, in a similar way the EU demanded special trade privileges.
President Trump is trying to end the Canadian one-way benefits toward the U.S. market.
President Trump is currently touring Asia, gathering up bilateral trade deals with various countries all across the ASEAN network.
In the bigger context, Trump is cutting all the tentacles and tools of China, and isolating them from Southeast Asia, as it relates to trade with the USA.
The bigger strategy of President Trump is very clear now, reduce dependency on China by retracting all of the manufacturing dependency.
All of the surrounding nations in Asia stand to benefit from this approach through bilateral free trade agreements with the USA. Beijing’s influence is being seriously diminished as the lead-up to President Trump sitting down with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping on Thursday.
Inside China, throughout the Chinese Communist Party, there are indications they are recognizing how successful President Trump has been at working around their influence. Some outside observers have even started to believe the “moderates” within China feel empowered over the “hardliners” represented by Chairman Xi. There is a lot going on behind the scenes.
This internal pressure inside Beijing’s politics works to President Trump’s favor, because it makes it even harder for Xi Jinping to be aggressive. Additionally, with the Chinese economy being uncertain, perhaps significantly weak, Chairman Xi might even face a challenge to his power structure. Meanwhile President Trump hops around shaking hands and making deals.
Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.
Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.
A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.
Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.
I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.
I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.
Please do not get discouraged.
Cheers
FDS
REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.
As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.
If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.
Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.
Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”
“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”
I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.
The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.
Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.
Posted originally on Sep 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, marking the sharpest rise since the late 1990s.
Tariffs are certainly part of the problem. Brazil produces around 37% of the world’s coffee, but now faces a 50% tariff on coffee beans. The average price of Brazilian coffee now sits around $6 per pound. Brazil also experienced a depleted harvest in 2024-25 due to drought and unfavorable weather conditions. The harvest was 9% beneath traditional levels. Global production rose by 4.3 million bags, but was offset by lower stocks, and prices remained high. The US spent $1.41 billion last year on Brazilian coffee alone, and a 50% tariff in addition to increased prices is causing grocers and retailers to raise prices.
Brazil and Colombia primarily focus on Arabica beans, with Colombia being America’s second-highest importer. In far contrast to Brazil, Colombia’s tariff sits at 10%. Still, the US purchased $1.4 billion in coffee beans from Colombia last year and any levy will be felt by consumers. Colombia’s 2024-25 coffee harvest was extremely robust at 13.2 million bags, a 23% increase from the previous year. Farmers believe production will fall by 5.3% in the coming harvest due to weakening La Nina conditions and heavy rain.
Vietnam supplies 17% of the world’s coffee, but the US mainly relies on South America for imports. Vietnam’s tariff sits at 20% and many roasters have complained that this is affecting their bottom line. Same with Indonesia, which has a 19-32% levy.
Brazilian coffee exports to the US have fallen by nearly 46% since tariffs were imposed. While the US consumed 15% of Brazilian coffee exports, Germany was close behind at 14% and has surpassed the US to become the top buyer. It is undeniable that tariffs on Brazil have caused a spike in US coffee prices, which has been exacerbated by a weak harvest.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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