Tag Archives: U. S. Regionalism

Aug 3 2022

Foreboding Data, Second Quarter Credit Card Balances Jump 13 Percent, Largest Increase in Twenty Years


It’s not just the scale of the increase that is surprising; it’s the history of how long it has been since this scale of debt increase happened in a single quarter.

(CNBC) – […] Although average hourly earnings are up 5.1% from a year ago, prices have been rising much faster. The Consumer Price Index, which measures the average change in prices for consumer goods and services, jumped a higher-than-expected 9.1% in June, the fastest pace in over four decades.

To bridge the gap, more consumers are relying on credit cards to get by, which has helped propel total credit card debt to $890 billion.

Overall, credit card balances rose 13% in the second quarter of 2022, notching the largest year-over-year increase in more than 20 years, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (read more)

This doesn’t sound like a good economic omen.

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 2, 2022 | sundance

Aug 3 2022

Job Openings in June Decreased 605,000, Retail Sector Dropped 343,000


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 2, 2022

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces a monthly report of available job openings.  The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS report) shows the number of available jobs at a captured moment in time.  This JOLTS report [DATA HERE] is a summary of the last day in June.

As you can see within modified Table-1, the number of available jobs dropped by 605,000 in this report.

Hires and separations were little changed, so too was the number of people who quit their jobs.  The big change in this JOLTS survey was the removal of available jobs.  Employers cancelling job openings.

BLS – “On the last business day of June, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.7 million (-605,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000), and in state and local government education (-62,000).”

If we monitor the JOLTS report as an indicator of employment strength reflecting the general pattern of consumers, we can see a pullback in both the goods and service sector.

Retail job openings dropping 343,000 as consumer spending tightens even more due to inflation, and now we see the service side with leisure and hospitality dropping 91,000 openings.

Aug 3 2022

Nancy Pelosi Lands in Taiwan After Kirby Reaffirms “we do not support Taiwan independence”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 2, 2022 | sundance 

There was a lot of back-and-forth hostility between the government of China and the administration of Joe Biden in advance of Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.  Some Chinese state media even suggested a possibility that Pelosi’s plane could be shot down.  However, none of the threats materialized.

Yesterday it was obvious the White House was attempting to diffuse the aggressive grievances of Beijing when spokesperson John Kirby, technically the NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications, made a specific statement:

“The world has seen the United States government be very clear that nothing has changed — nothing has changed — about our One China policy, which is of course guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint U.S.-PRC Communiqués, and the Six Assurances.  We have said — and we have repeatedly said — that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.  We have said that we do not support Taiwan independence.  And we have said that we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.”

Those six words, “we do not support Taiwan independence,” was a very deliberate and public assurance to China.  Essentially, the United States will not do anything to support the independence of Taiwan, do whatever you want.  Joe Biden took a knee to Chairman Xi.  As a result, Beijing dropped back their tone to traditional rhetoric saying in a statement Tuesday morning, the visit “seriously infringes upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Arriving late last night, Speaker Pelosi released the following statement: “Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances.  The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo.”

The Biden administration then sought to overwhelm the media coverage of the Pelosi controversy by promoting the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri.

…And that’s the way that went.

Aug 2 2022

Global Recession Spreads, European Factory Activity Contracts in July, Japanese Factory Activity Also Drops


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 1, 2022 | Sundance 

In addition to the contraction in South Korean manufacturing announced last night, European manufacturing and factory activity is also contracting with less output, higher buildup of inventory and fewer orders for finished goods.  The global recession is being measured fast and furious.

Every economic outcome is connected to a purposeful decision by the leaders of western industrialized nations to follow the Build Back Better climate change agenda.  Higher energy costs, an outcome of the collective policy to stop new production of coal, oil and gas, which has transferred into higher food prices, farm prices, gasoline prices, heating and cooling prices as well as electricity rates, is forcing consumers to stop purchasing non-essential products.

The sale of durable goods collapsed in the first half of this year; however, no policymakers or bankers wanted to admit it and they kept saying there was an excess of demand.  Now, with fewer customers for durable goods in the market, global manufacturing and factory outputs are dropping fast.  Eventually the central planners are going to have to admit their pretended demand does not exist.

While there is a natural lag in the activity, the rate of factory contraction will be proportionate to rate of the drop in demand.  Meaning we have only just begun to see the manufacturing decline that lags a few months behind consumer activity.

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Manufacturing activity across the euro zone contracted last month with factories forced to stockpile unsold goods due to weak demand, a survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the bloc could fall into a recession.

S&P Global’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.8 in July from June’s 52.1, just ahead of a preliminary reading of 49.6 but its first time below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction since June 2020.

An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Wednesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, sank to a more than two-year low of 46.3. In June it was 49.3.

“Euro zone manufacturing is sinking into an increasingly steep downturn, adding to the region’s recession risks. New orders are already falling at a pace which, excluding pandemic lockdown months, is the sharpest since the debt crisis in 2012, with worse likely to come,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. (read more)

The WEF directed politicians are trying to bring energy demand down to match the energy shortage they have created. The various western government leaders, Biden included, want/need a recession to drop energy demand. The central banks and federal reserve are supporting the policymakers by driving up interest rates into the recession.

The combined effort leads to a shrinking of the global economy.

By lowering the economic activity and forcing their western nations into a joint collaborative and intentional recession, the central planners hope to offset the inflation they created by blocking coal, oil and gas production. By intentionally collapsing demand, the prices of excess non-essential goods will drop; however, there will be no one to purchase those goods at any price because global employment in a global recession is tenuous at best. This is the spiral they are trying to manage.

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded at the weakest rate in 10 months in July, as pressure from rising prices and supply disruptions hurt output and new orders, suggesting a solid post-pandemic economic recovery is still some way off.

The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 in July from the previous month’s 52.7 final.

That marked the slowest pace of growth since September last year, and was slightly lower than a 52.2 flash reading.

[…] Manufacturing activity suffered from contractions in output and overall new orders as well as a slower expansion in the backlog of work, the PMI survey showed.

[…] But a government official also warned downside risks for output remained as parts supply delays lingered. That is one of many reasons why the Bank of Japan remains resolutely committed to its ultra-low policies despite a global trend of rising interest rates to fight rampant inflation. (more)

It’s incredible how they various western leaders and bankers can still say there is too much demand, when every single economic indicator clearly shows that all consumer purchasing of non-essential goods and services has stopped.

We are seriously looking at a future employment scenario that might be as bad as it was during the economic lockdowns in the pandemic.  This time all of the unemployment will have been created by intentional climate change policy.

These ideologues are seriously disconnected from the pain they are inflicting.

Jul 31 2022

Uncensored: Martin Armstrong – Hell in 2023, Recession, Civil Unrest but Schwab Will Fail!


Armstrong economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jul 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

World-renowned Economist Martin Armstrong joins Maria Zeee to discuss what he describes as “Hell” in 2023, the recession we are already in, the rise of civil unrest, and more – but he says Schwab WILL fail! Click here to learn more!

Jul 31 2022

One Day After Arresting Political Opposition Voice, an Assassination Attempt on Guatemalan President Giammattei


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 30, 2022 | Sundance 

At first blush I’m inclined to see Jose Ruben Zamora as the Latin version of Jamal Khashoggi; which is to say, he glows CIA.

Yesterday in Guatemala, the government arrested a “journalist” and “businessman” named Jose Ruben Zamora who was the publisher of a national newspaper and strong opposition voice against the conservative government of President Alejandro Giammattei [WSJ link].  Today, Guatemalan President Giammattei is reported to have survived an assassination attempt, leaving people injured as a result of gunfire [details sketchy].

(Via WSJ) – […] Guatemalan police arrested José Rubén Zamora, a businessman and renowned journalist who heads the elPeriódico newspaper, at his house in a tree-lined residential neighborhood in the capital after a judge issued an arrest warrant against him, the country’s attorney general’s office said.

“This is a political persecution,” Mr. Zamora told reporters, flanked by policemen, in front of his house. A group of people gathered at the site, shouting: “You are not alone! You are not alone!”

The head of the anticorruption unit at the attorney general’s office in charge of the investigation, Rafael Curruchiche, said the arrest had nothing to do with Mr. Zamora’s work as a journalist but with his business activities.

[…] Associations of journalists, human-rights advocacy groups and some legal experts denounced Mr. Zamora’s arrest as an assault on freedom of speech and open intimidation in reprisal for the newspaper’s coverage. (read more)

I’m sorry to say this, but in this new political era – when associations of multinational media organizations and NGO type human rights groups suddenly start protesting the arrest of a journalist suspected of criminal activity, I no longer grant the benefit of doubt.

In this new era, we have passed through the looking glass.  NATO now represents the manipulative globalist bad guys in collusion with corporations; Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is a corrupt grifter and transparent tool of the U.S. State Dept and CIA; WaPo’s Jamal Khashoggi held all the optics and behaviors of a western intelligence agent; and the U.S. media have become narrative engineers who willingly feed on a constant stream of false information by intelligence assets intent on shaping American opinion.

As a result, when all the betters who tell me that J6 was a bigger threat to democracy than 9/11; the same people who call Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro a dictator; the same people who claimed Chairman Kim Jong-Un was a mad man; are also telling me to suspect Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei of being a strong-armed dictator arresting the poor and virtuous journalist Jose Zamora, who uses his hair to knit sweaters for homeless kittens, my suspicious cat crawls atop the tree of cynicism and gives me the side-eye.

Then we overlay how much various central American nations are influenced by the United States government, and, well, we find ourselves being predisposed toward the opposite of what the narrative engineers claim.

Public skepticism is the result of what Senator Grassley recently called “institutionally corrupt” U.S. government behavior.

Jul 31 2022

Not Every Developed Western Nation is Destroying Itself While Chasing the Build Back Better Objective


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 30, 2022 | Sundance 

In fact, there are several western nations who see the ‘climate change” energy transformation as an economic kamikaze mission… and that reality is upsetting those who control the larger western alliance agenda.

When we outlined the ‘biggest problem‘ we noted: Brazil, Mexico, and more recently Japan, have started pushing back against the climate change ideologues.  We must do the same.

So, let’s get everyone up to speed.

Factually, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is not only a nationalist leader for his country, Brazil itself is in an emerging economic relationship within the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).  The BRICS group are not in ideological or geopolitical alignment with the World Economic Forum (WEF) climate change instructions known as Build Back Better.  This lack of ideological synergy is one of the reasons we see a joint effort between the U.S. State Dept and U.S. intelligence group to target Jair Bolsonaro for removal.  [Watch Bolsonaro w/ Tucker Carlson]

Recently, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) visited the White House.  AMLO is basically soft-socialist, a nationalist who does not like the influence of multinational corporations on the economic politics within Mexico.  When he visited with Joe Biden, AMLO’s public comments in the oval office (he actually had them written down so he would not be deterred from his delivery) about the U.S. chasing a short-sighted and dangerous energy policy, were just ignored by media.  However, watching AMLO deconstruct the Biden energy policy was very telling. [Review Outline Here].

In addition to so-called geopolitical adversaries like Russia, China and Iran, there are also geopolitical allies who clearly see that fracturing the global economy based on energy development, the center of the Build Back Better agenda, is going to create major issues for the citizens within the countries determined by ideological quest to change their energy system.   As noted with Brazil and Mexico, not everyone in the “west” is on board with the program.

Even in Germany and the U.K. we see evidence indicating pragmatic discussion is starting to surface.

There will eventually be an inflection point within the EU as the desires of the ideological leaders run into the reality of the situation.  [ex. Dutch farm protests]

The Build Back Better climate agenda is essentially a process to deindustrialize economies, then rebuild them.  Will Germany really accept a lower standard of living, just to be equitable in economic malaise?  If you know any German people, you know the answer to that is an emphatic NO.

Additionally, southeast Asia (ASEAN group) represents an almost impossible region to shift away from traditional oil, coal, gasoline and food derivatives that need fertilizer and natural gas etc.  And everyone knows China is not going to go along with the ‘climate’ nonsense.

Even if Beijing puts a smiley-faced panda mask on the Beijing dragon, they are going to use the climate change suicide mission of the west as a geopolitical advantage toward their own expanded economic influence.  Hell, who wouldn’t.

♦ Which brings me to the recent appearance of Japanese pushback, which comes with a typically Japanese subtlety.

Keep in mind that Japanese industry is still the largest investor in U.S. manufacturing and jobs.

Despite Japan signing-on with the western alliance sanctions against Russia, almost assuredly a decision intended to stay in alignment with the G7 politics, recently Japan has refused to join the collective western approach to raise central bank interest rates to facilitate the BBB ‘transition’ (link).

This has caused the Japanese yen to fall rapidly against western currency, specifically against the U.S. dollar.  The dollar has gained 25.5% against the Japanese yen (link).

Now, inflation in Japan is still an issue, but it is less an issue than in the EU and North America (Canada/USA with Mexico excluded).  Part of that lower inflation dynamic is caused by Japan not driving supply-side inflation as a result of the energy transition.

The decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has created some anxiety within the western alliance group of central bankers.  Additionally, Japan is remaining in good standing with Russia for energy resources and continues to purchase all oil and LNG at the lowest rates possible, regardless of origination. Japan is also the top investor and buyer of LNG from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 plant, so they are the most exposed to Moscow’s new demand to pay for energy through a Russian bank.

(Reuters) – SINGAPORE — Russia’s Sakhalin Energy Investment Co has requested its liquefied natural gas (LNG) customers to make payments via a Moscow unit of a European bank and is in talks to change the payment currencies away from U.S. dollars, two sources familiar with the matter said on Friday. (link)

Again, another geopolitical dynamic that breaks Japan away from the collective western suicide mission.

From the perspective of Japan, all of these moves -while not aligning with the demands of the BBB agenda- make perfect sense.

While their currency is suffering from not following the western agenda, they have several upsides.  First, exports from Japan to the United States and the EU now become even cheaper. With a higher dollar value, Japanese imports into the United States come at a discount.  This will help Japan export goods and retain a strong export economy.

Second, with Japan already a massive investor inside the United States, the dollars that are generated in profit from their operations are delivered back to Japan at a higher value.  A higher dollar value, the outcome of their breaking from the western central bank decision to raise rates, does not hurt Japan.  They bring back high valued dollars from their decades in investment into North America, and they continue exporting to the U.S. at a discount.

So, the nationalist outlooks of Japan, Brazil and even our Mexican neighbors are reflecting a pragmatic self-interest that so far has withstood the pressures from the western alliance to fall into line.  This is how those three countries are positioned to push back against the insufferable BBB agenda.

We can use the example of those western industrialized nations to show that not everyone is in alignment with this globalist multinational finance and corporate takeover.

If we can get more people to see how short-sighted and dangerous the agenda of the World Economic Forum is, we can further expose the real nature of the BBB agenda, to accumulate wealth and control amid a very small conglomerate of WEF corporate and banking interests.

The ‘climate change agenda‘ has always been about a small group of multinational interests having more assembled power, influence and affluence.  As they now take their Davos effort onto the world stage, they will encounter resistance and push-back.  Not everyone in the western alliance is on board with the objective.

Stay smart, avoid the shiny things, stay focused, and look for ways to throw sand into the machinery.

There are more of us than them.

Jul 30 2022

MAKE 1984 FICTION AGAIN!


Awaken With JP Published originally on Rumble on July 28, 2022

Jul 30 2022

Argentina’s Economy Collapses


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Argentina’s economy has collapsed. Around 57% of adults in the nation are currently unemployed. The Socialist nation has programs in place to compensate, costing the country around $6 million daily. However, socialism no longer works when you run out of other people’s money. July’s inflation report showed an uptick over 60%.

Harry Lorenzo, chief finance officer of Income Based Research, told The Epoch Times, that the government’s constant spending has exacerbated the problem ten-fold. “The Argentine government has been grappling with a collapsing economy for some time now. The main reason for this is the government’s unsustainable spending, which has been funded in part by generous welfare programs,” Lorenzo stated. This is the same issue we see in the US, Canada, Europe, and elsewhere when governments spend without the intention of ever paying off their debt.

Argentina has defaulted on seven separate occasions since gaining independence in 1816. Speaking more recently, Argentina’s economy was already in ruin in the 1980s when they faced a serious debt crisis, and the currency became worthless. Inflation reached 2,600% in 1989, and the nation experienced hyperinflation into 1990. They decided to peg the Argentine peso against the USD in the late 1990s, which proved disastrous. Never in the history of economics has a peg survived because the economy is not a flat line.

By 2001, the peso was completely devalued. US Treasury bonds and Argentine government bonds rose 5,000 bps – bank runs ensued. There was an immediate freeze on bank deposits that December and the people were left with nothing. The International Monetary Fund simultaneously announced it would no longer support Argentina and cut them off from funding. This is when the nation lost its last tie to any foreign capital. The nation had no choice but to default once again at the end of December.

Various leaders, whoever could stick with the job, promised that the government would provide the people with basic needs. Nearly 60% of the nation was below the poverty line by 2002. By 2010, Argentina restructured 92% of its debt. The nation tried to remove trade restrictions and attract investors – but who would want their debt? The IMF granted Argentina one of the largest bailout packages in history in 2018, which totaled $57 billion. The IMF again agreed to restructure $44 billion for the nation in January of this year.

The problem with social programs is that there is never enough money. Rising inflation has increased the poverty level, and the average person can no longer afford an abundance of basic necessities such as food. The people of Argentina have been on strike for months, many refusing to work. The government promised them social programs in exchange for a cut of their pay. Argentina’s economy minister, Martin Guzmán, resigned at the beginning of the month. The Argentine peso continues to decline against the dollar, pushed down further by recent Fed rate hikes. This is what happens when governments spend recklessly, peg their failing currency, and promise the people security that they cannot provide.

Jul 30 2022

Fed Preferred Inflation Index Jumps 6.8% in June, Largest Increase in Four Decades


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

The federal reserve looks carefully at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index when weighting inflation data.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released the PCE index for June [DATA HERE] and the results show a 6.8% increase in June from a year ago, the largest jump in four decades.

Wage growth in the second quarter (April, May, June) was generally strong, rising 1.6%.  However, it now looks like the consumption index and the wage indexes are creating their own inflationary spiral.  In addition to supply-side inflation, driven by Joe Biden’s energy costs, the labor costs are now increasing substantially which adds costs on the production side of the economy.

As wages go up to keep pace with supply side inflation, the prices of goods and services produced/handled by those workers also increases.  This is the inflation spiral that can get out of hand quickly.  The major concern (not necessarily expressed by pundits) is the inability of any institutional economic response to offset the originating inflation caused by the energy policy.  The economic team is pretending supply-side inflation created by energy policy doesn’t exist. They are only directing attention to demand side inflation.

As long as energy policy keeps driving the price of electricity, gasoline and petroleum products higher, workers need higher wages.  Those wage increases, while significant in scale, still lag the rising originating prices of the goods; and the wage growth adds to the final costs. Inflation then becomes structurally embedded, hyper-inflation begins.  This looks like the current situation.

The monetary policy makers (fed reserve) can only impact the demand side of the inflationary cycle.  Raising interest rates does reduce demand; however, it also reduces labor at the same time.   Monetary policy cannot impact the originating source of inflation that starts this spiral.  The core issue is Joe Biden’s Green New Deal energy agenda.

WASHINGTON – […] An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Fed jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the government said Friday, the biggest such jump in four decades. Much of the increase was driven by energy and food.

On a month-to-month basis, too, prices surged 1% in June, the biggest such rise since 2005. Even excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices climbed 0.6% from May to June.

Employees’ wages, excluding government workers, jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last fall. Higher wages tend to fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor costs on to their customers, as they often do.

Friday’s figures underscored the persistence of the inflation that is eroding Americans’ purchasing power, dimming their confidence in the economy and threatening Democrats in Congress in the run-up to the November midterm elections.

But more persistent drivers of inflation show little, if any, evidence of slowing. The wage data released Friday — a measure known as the employment cost index — indicated that paychecks were still growing at a robust pace. That’s good for workers, but it could raise concerns at the Fed about its effect on prices. Chair Jerome Powell specifically cited this measure during a news conference Wednesday as a source of concern for the the central bank’s policymakers.

“This is a (report) that’s going to keep Fed officials up at night,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights. (read more)

https://youtube.com/watch?v=omEEnl2WTvA%3Ffeature%3Doembed