The Power of Siberia


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Jul 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Sanctions strengthened Putin and caused “unfriendly nations” to form a closer alliance against the West. As the West suffers from an energy crisis with no solution in sight, Russia is benefitting from this in more ways than one. You may have heard of the China–Russia East-Route Natural Gas pipeline or the Yakutia–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok pipeline. Construction was approved in 2007, and in 2012, Putin ordered Gazprom to begin construction and renamed the project “Power of Siberia.” China and Russia signed a 30-year deal for $400 billion in 2014, and by December 2019, the pipeline was functional.

The mainstream media focuses on the failure of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline at the hands of German politicians but forgets that Russia has alternative options for exporting fuel. Deliveries through the Power of Siberia have only reached $3.81 billion since December 2019, but China and Russia have plans to ramp up distribution. China received 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas from the pipeline in 2021. The deal has become so lucrative that Beijing and Moscow created a second pipeline – the Power of Siberia 2. This could double exports from Russia to China with a pipeline that would pass through Mongolia as well.

In the first six months of 2022, Gazprom exported 7.5 billion cubic meters of gas to China, marking a 63.4% uptick in volume. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine in early February, China and Russia agreed to ramp up distribution by 10 billion cubic meters. Reuters believes this could increase sales by $37.5 billion in the next 25 years, but this could increase given the high demand and low availability.

The West, namely Europe, needed Russian energy; Russia did not need Europe. President Biden admitted long ago that sanctions do not work, but in this instance, they completely backfired and have left the West with no leverage over Russian energy.

THIS IS INSANE – Ukraine DEMANDS FREE GAS From Brandon


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumble on July 26, 2022 

Is Europe Sleepwalking into its Demise?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When the Allies crossed the border to invade Germany as WWII came to an end, the German population hung white sheets from the windows to signify their surrender. Just a few years before, the German people were told to celebrate the prospect of dominating Europe as retribution for the punishment they endured because of the war waged by the leaders before. The Prince of Savoy, who inspired the 2nd Amendment to the US Constitution, warned that war was inevitable because kings held standing armies, and they wanted to use them to get their money’s worth.

Today, the people of Europe were told that the euro would cure all things, even gout, and would lead to Europe surpassing the United States economically. They said the euro would kill the dollar once and for all. How dare this upstart country think it could surpass the majesty of Europe with centuries of history to support it.

Yet today, there is growing bewilderment within Europe. Even Germany has slipped into a disoriented state, with its leaders sleepwalking into a dark fate for Europe. World leaders seem to have forgotten everything from history class, or perhaps they cut that one to smoke a joint outside on campus. They have turned the economic success of generations to rebuild Europe into a declining trend pockmarked with rising authoritarianism. These leaders lack any sense of future other than the raw power they seem to cling to.

Even the Germans settled into a comfortable life, climbing to the top of the economic status within the EU and rising from the ashes with hard work. They were told to believe in their own accomplishments and their superiority within Europe and that their economic system was working perfectly. Sadly, the people were induced with success into a trend of self-deception. Leaders preached changing everything to a new Green world with intoxicating visions of saving the planet as a noble deed. The future would be one of zero emissions and tempered population control.

The people are starting to awaken while their leaders are still sleepwalking into their own destruction. Klaus Schwab believes this is the Fourth Industrial Revolution of AI and technology. His 8 points for 2030 are all really about the end of the Financial Age of endless borrowing with no intention of paying it back. It takes curiosity for innovation, not dehumanizing authoritarianism. The very cornerstone of civilization is we come together because it is mutually beneficial to all. Once we enter the world of Marxist Socialism, those in power have used it to divide us into classes and proclaim they are saints. The powerful are always concerned about only our welfare, which justifies their exercise of brute force. The very purpose of civilization has ceased to exist, warning that cyclically, we must crash and burn until we remember once again what makes a civilization great.

It is true that Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon on January 10, 49 BC (49.02) to purge the corruption in the Republic, but corruption resurfaced. Because he forgave his enemies, they conspired and assassinated him on the Ides of March 44 BC (44.20), just 4.82 years later (250.6 weeks, 62 months). That resulted in another civil war and then the defeat of Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC. Octavian became emperor officially with the title Augustus on January 16, 27 BC (27.04). The Julian Claudian dynasty ended with the death of Nero on June 9, 68 AD (68.43), lasting 95.47 years. Thus, there is never a permanent new era. There are cycles to everything, and forming the EU was also not something that would endure for 1,000 years and more than the Julio-Claudian Dynasty of Rome.

So while fools really think this New World Order will unfold and the dreams of Schwab will be realized, this idea of perpetual borrowing and kicking the can down the road has already come to an end. This is what Schwab is really saying – you will own nothing and be happy. That is foretelling the end of debt-supported government. They are moving on to the Modern Monetary Theory — print what you need when you need it. However, the sudden rise in inflation currently has caused some to question even this new MMT theory.

So as the West thinks it can wage conventional war and defeat Russia to bring it under the new authoritarian control of the United Nations, they are well aware that Ukraine is the MOST corrupt government in the world. Already, weapons handed to them are being stolen and sold on the black market, as took place in Afghanistan. Instead of people cruising around for five-week holidays, the price of gas is at $10 a gallon in Europe. With the increasing threat of war, the future is anything from comfortable. Europe is awakening to realize that guns and soldiers are once again back in demand. The vast industrial production of Germany that sold its products to consumers is staring at its demise, battling with two foes — climate change and war. Germany can no longer rely upon the industriousness of its people as its leaders try to paint a fairytale version of the future.

We warned at the Europe Conference that those who believed that this New World Order would actually unfold were fools. The consolidation of the world under the authority of the United Nations will never succeed. Unfortunately, a lot of people will die trying to bring this dream to fruition as they did the last time Marxism was attempted.

EU Energy Panic Cycle to Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

On August 1, the European Commission will begin to reduce its demand for gas with no alternative in place. Unsurprisingly, our computer states that a Panic Cycle will begin in August or September and go into Q1 of 2023. Europe must reduce its gas consumption by 15% (45 billion cubic meters). In comparison, Russia delivered 150 billion cubic meters to the EU last year. Russia’s largest gas provider, Gazprom, has threatened to cut off Europe from gas entirely. Europe has no alternative solutions at this time. Therefore, they’re implementing a “Save Gas for a Safe Winter” plan in Brussels.

Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen claims that all member states will suffer from their proxy war with Russia, albeit some more than others (e.g., Germany). “It’s important that all member states contribute in the saving, the storing and are ready to share gas,” she said. Let us see how friendly this bloc really is when it comes to sharing an essential resource in limited supply.

Member states are now required to submit energy plans to the Commission by the end of September and update plans every two months until March 2023. There is proposed legislation that would allow the Commission the authority to declare a “Union alert” and impose mandator gas caps on member states.

The bloc plans to fill its gas storage capacities to 80% by November, but that may be a lofty goal. European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson expressed pessimism in interviews.  “We risk ending this winter with empty storage, which will be impossible to refill in time for the next heating season,” she warned, as this crisis is only beginning.  Simson and others are calling on the public sector to reduce demand.

This will fall back to the citizens, who will be asked to limit their consumption and abandon comforts for a proxy war they never voted on. Frans Timmermans, the Executive Vice-President of the Commission in charge of the European Green Deal, has already suggested people switch off lights and electrical appliances and reduce AC/heater usage. No one will stop these politicians from flying around on their jets, surrounded by bodyguards in numerous SUVs, while they make the people suffer for their poor policies.

Worldwide Inflation in June 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There is a common misconception that the United States has the highest rate of inflation in the world. I see it questioned in numerous emails The United States does have a major problem when it comes to inflation, but its currency has not depreciated to the point where it is weak. Let us compare data on inflation from other nations.

According to data compiled by Trading Economics, the following countries are suffering the most from runaway inflation as of June 2022:

  1. Lebanon 210%
  2. Zimbabwe 192%
  3. Venezuela 167% (last compiled May 2022)
  4. Sudan 149%
  5. Syria 139% (last compiled in August 2021)
  6. Turkey 62%
  7. Argentina 64%
  8. Suriname 55.6% (last compiled May 2022)
  9. Sri Lanka 54.6%
  10. Iran 52.5%

These depreciated currencies are all but useless at the moment. As we have seen throughout history, the prospect of revolution rises when the people are unable to afford basic needs. Numerous countries on this list are already in the middle of ongoing civil wars and political turmoil. Barter becomes essential as trading goods and services are often the only available option.

Here is how the G20 nations rank as of June 2022:

  1. Turkey 62%
  2. Argentina 64%
  3. Russia 9%
  4. Brazil 89%
  5. Spain 2%
  6. United Kingdom 9.4%
  7. United States 9.1%
  8. Euro Area 8.6%
  9. Netherlands 8.6 %
  10. Canada 8.1%
  11. Italy 8%
  12. Mexico 99%
  13. Germany 7.6%
  14. South Africa 7.4%
  15. India 7.01%
  16. Singapore 6.7%
  17. South Korea 6%
  18. France 8%
  19. Australia 5.1% (compiled in March 2022)
  20. Indonesia 4.35%
  21. Switzerland 3.4%
  22. China 2.5%
  23. Japan 2.4%
  24. Saudi Arabia 2.3%

Turkey tried but failed to gain access into the EU and swap its lira for the euro. They would have been in insurmountable debt regardless, but their initial attempt failed. Is it any wonder that Turkey is trying its best to keep diplomatic relations with both the West and Russia amid the proxy war? They cannot afford to lose trading partners and have failed to impose tough sanctions on Russia. Turkey enjoys its NATO status but attempted to block Finland and Sweden from joining. They cited their reasoning as those countries supported Anti-Turkish terrorist groups, but part of the reason was not to anger Russia.

All of the other G20 nations are experiencing high inflation, none at the common 2% target, but some are faring much better than others as they are not involved in the ongoing proxy war and have maintained strong trade. The US sitting at 9.1% is alarming. As I have warned, other nations will fold before the US as the dollar remains unchallenged.

The White House Changed the Definition of a Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Governments have a way with words. Namely, they can change the definition of a word at the stroke of a pen. The definition of “vaccine” changed under the CDC’s guidance from “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease” to “a preparation that is used to stimulate the body’s immune response against diseases.” This permitted the COVID experimental injection to be called a “vaccine.”

According to some on the top US court, only a specialized biologist can define the term “woman.” “Mothers” has changed to “birthing people,” and words seem to have lost all meaning.

Now, the White House is changing its definition of “recession.” A recession was typically categorized as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, albeit not the best measure. Still, this was the tried and true formula for the government to determine the health of the overall economy. The White House now says that data from every facet of the US economy must be considered and foreshadows what to expect for Q2. The White House will not admit that the US is in a recession under Joe Biden. They will downplay the next GDP reading for Q2 and cite their newly formed definition for a “recession.”

Weber Manufacturing Announces Layoffs Due to Collapsed Sales, U.S. Economy Shrinking, CEO Resigns


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

It is only one U.S. company; however, the makers of Weber Grills and products released their sales data, and the background shows a severe economic contraction that has resulted in their operating loss of $51 million in the quarter that ended March 31, 2022.  NOTE THE DATE.

July 25 (Reuters) – Weber Inc (WEBR.N) on Monday replaced top boss Chris Scherzinger with an insider and warned that mounting inflationary and supply chain pressures could hit the grill maker’s financials and workforce, sending its shares down 20% in premarket trading.

The company withdrew its fiscal 2022 net sales and core earnings forecasts, saying higher consumer prices and geopolitical uncertainty were squeezing store traffic as well as margins.

Weber, which also suspended its quarterly cash dividend, said it was pursuing a number of initiatives, which may include job cuts, reducing expenses and tightening its inventory levels.

The company also forecast a net loss for the quarter ending June 30, citing weak store traffic and higher discounting. In the quarter ended March 31, Weber’s net sales decreased 7% and net loss came in at $51 million compared with a net income last year. (read more)

Weber is a good company with strong fundamental products.  Unfortunately, the layoffs that are likely to soon surface are not going to be isolated to Weber.  The contraction of economic activity is going to start surfacing in the balance sheets of multiple companies this quarter.

We can expect to see a bloodbath of employment layoffs in this quarter (July, Aug, Sept) at the same time as the federal reserve continues to raise interest rates to support the new energy “transition.”

As noted in Weber’s financials, the consumer contraction started escalating more than six months ago.  Companies can only hide a severe drop in income for a short period, and then eventually cost-cutting decisions must be made.

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Ukrainian Blacklist of American Critics, Including Rand Paul, Glenn Greenwald, Tulsi Gabbard and Col Douglas McGregor


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

The non-democratic, socialist and totalitarian Ukraine government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has created a blacklist of western voices that are considered “Russian propagandists” for their criticism of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. [Details Here]

The overwhelming commonality of the people on the list is their advocacy for citizens of nations who are providing support for Ukraine to have a democratic voice on the issue. The Zelenskyy government has stated it will not permit any criticism of their country and demands that all western nations continue to send billions of dollars to provide an appropriate lifestyle for all Ukrainian government officials.

Currently the burden of financing the continuation of the Ukraine government has fallen upon U.S. taxpayers who have provided approximately $60 billion so far for the pay and pension benefits of Ukraine officials and their families. President Zelenskyy says we have a moral obligation to continue this funding, and any voice who would question the process is now blacklisted within Ukraine and labeled a Russian propagandist.

Tucker Carlson discussed the issue with two of the people targeted by Zelenskyy, former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and journalist Glenn Greenwald. WATCH:

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Even CNN Panel Cannot Support the Biden Administration Redefining Terms Because their Economic Policy Sucks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance

No credit to the CNN team for calling out the obvious; I mean, this is the same panel who redefined “insurrection” to fit their needs; however, the Biden administration’s efforts to redefine economics are so pathetic even the narrative engineers at CNN cannot support them.  WATCH:

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Biden Puts His Economic Credibility On The Line Ahead of Thursday BEA Report, I Do Not Think We Will See a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance

The White House is expending a tremendous amount of communication effort over the past 48 hours trying to convince the American public that the economy is good, and we are not in a recession.

Yesterday it was Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Today National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese, White House Economist Jared Bernstein and even Joe Biden himself, all declaring that despite the economic contraction you may feel, see and even quantify, we are not in a recession.  WATCH:

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The action of the recession deniers reminds me of the famous Ralph Waldo Emmerson quote:

The louder he spoke of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons.”

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The Recession Deniers