Posted originally on Jan 15, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Governor Gavin Newsom fears losing voters ahead of a likely presidential bid. The proposition of a billionaire tax has caused a massive amount of capital to flee California. The Democrats had banked on redistributing the funds generated from that tax to pay for their ever-expanding welfare state. Suddenly, Newsom is strongly against the billionaire tax proposal.
“The evidence is in. The impacts are very real — not just substantive economic impacts in terms of the revenue, but start-ups, the indirect impacts of … people questioning long term-commitments, medium-term,” Newsom said. “That’s not what we need right now, at a time of so much uncertainty. Quite the contrary.” The eat-the-rich governor then stated he will fight to defeat the liberal bill. “I think people understand what it does versus what it promotes to do.”
Instead, Newsom believes the tax should be imposed at the federal level to prevent smart money from fleeing his state. “It’s one thing to have a [tax] of the [nation], and you can talk about all 50 states,” he explained to The New York Times, contrasting this with the current scenario where “you’re [competing] against all the other states.”
Socialist bureaucrats focus on redistribution instead of economic growth. No nation has ever taxed its way into prosperity, no government budget has ever been covered by advancing taxes when spending continues indefinitely. Smart money moves quickly. A federal wealth tax may not cause the rich to flee the United States, as it is the last safe haven, but it would cause capital to move underground.
Europe abandoned wealth taxes not because the rich complained, but because the tax base collapsed. Investment stopped. Entrepreneurs left, jobs disappeared, and governments collected less revenue than before. The models show this repeatedly because capital is mobile, and confidence is everything.
The proposed billionaire tax has caussed $1 trillion in potential tax revenue to flee California. The billionaire taxwould require California residents worth over $1 billion to pay a one-time 5% fee on all assets, including unrealized gains.
Google co-founder Larry Page fled the state and took his $276 billion net worth with him. Page moved his family office, Koop LLC, from California to Delaware and began purchasing property in Florida at the end of 2025. Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, worth around $245 billion, sold his home in San Francisco in favor of Hawaii. Venture capitalist Peter Thiel cut ties with California, taking his $26 billion and counting, opting to relocate in Miami. Craft Ventures co-founder David Sacks fled California and opened an office in Austin, Texas. Sacks wrote on social media that “Miami will replace NYC as the finance capital and Austin will replace SF (San Francisco) as the tech capital.”
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya believes California has lost$1 trillion in billionaire wealth because 50% of billionaire-driven potential tax revenue has left the state. Even if the bill does not pass, the fact that it was proposed and highly considered has unsettled capital and smart money will not remain where it is not welcome.
California heavily relies on top-earners to cover budget deficits. Last January, the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) found that California is facing “double-digit operating deficits in the years to come”as a result of reckless government spending. For the 2025-26 period, the LOA believes the state may have a balanced budget, but calls Newsom’s spending and policies highly unpredictable.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING is to blame for the budget failures. Every analysis says the same thing. The LAO suggests: “Legislature would need to address in the coming years, for example, by reducing spending, increasing taxes, shifting costs, or using more reserves. The magnitude of these deficits also indicates that, without other changes to spending or revenues, the state does not have capacity for new commitments.”
California was banking on billionaires to cover 90% of the state’s health care costs. The 2025-26 budget allocated $188.1 billion in total ($42.1 billion General Fund) to Medi-Cal, representing a steep $4.5 billion General Fund increase from the previous year. Medi-Cal is expected to expand to $222.4 billion in FY2026-27. Administration costs alone account for nearly 17% of health spending, with costs increasing by 23% in 2023 alone. The state was expecting the billionaires’ tax to cover $22.5 billion in annual healthcare program costs. The funds have left the state and will not return.
The state was also planning to redirect $2.5 billion from billionaires’ annual contributions to food and education assistance programs. Governments will never understand that they cannot rob Peter to pay Paul without repercussions. Again, the proposal alone was enough to uproot capital, businesses, jobs, development, and innovation.
Posted originally on CTH on October 8, 2025 | Sundance
Thankfully, people in Washington DC are finally starting to realize the full scale of the Obama surveillance system. All of the evidence and datapoints -released and yet to surface- flow in one direction. Even the professionally reluctant are starting to admit.
What Obama, Biden, Comey, Crossfire Hurricane, Robert Mueller, Arctic Frost and Jack Smith were doing, was using their offices -and govt systems- to watch their opposition, spy on them, then take action based on the results.
Friend of the Treehouse John Spiropoulos put together a series of videos explaining how President Obama, FBI Director James Comey and CIA Director John Brennan constructed a coverup to hide their political surveillance operation. Today, the 5th segment is wrapped into a total video containing all segments in the series.
From the perspective of Obama, Comey and Brennan, expanding Hillary Clinton’s Trump-Russia collusion narrative was the key element to hide the activity of the administration prior to the November 2016 election. That’s the motive for the FBI and CIA to collaborate on the agenda after the shocking outcome of the 2016 election result; but pay close attention to the activity of the primary “at risk” official, James Comey.
The December ’16 Joint Analysis Report (JAR), and the January ’17 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), were fabricated to enhance a spying coverup. Spiropoulos has taken the time to put the deconstruction of the ICA into a simple to follow video format.
From a risk management perspective, initially the surveillance and spying operation was a low-risk endeavor. Obama held power and was going to hand off operations to Hillary. The Clinton administration would retain the officials who were doing the surveillance/spying, and no one would ever know.
Donald Trump was not expected to win the election. When he did, all of the participants were suddenly at risk. President Obama and every member of his cabinet involved in the spying operations, then used Clinton’s “Russiagate” smear to cover up Obama’s “Spygate” activity.
The IRS was used to identify targets 2010 through 2012, until discovered in April ’12. Suddenly, President Obama has a problem. President Obama then sends his Chief of Staff, Jack Lew, to run the IRS and block discoveries around the IRS weaponization.
♦ From 2012 through April 2016, the Obama administration was spying on their political opposition using the FBI to conduct surveillance through their access to the NSA database.
♦ In April 2016, NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers was alerted by the NSA compliance officer who noted the uptick in database access activity by the FBI searching the Republican primary candidate field.
♦ Post April 2016, the Obama administration had a problem. Enter FBI operation “Crossfire Hurricane,” July 2016, in an effort to remove the political risk.
♦ October 2016, the FBI rushes a FISA application through the FISC, circumventing the missing ‘Woods File’, with the Chris Steele dossier as evidence.
♦ October 2016, NSA Director Rogers sends the first official notification of the FBI using the NSA database to the oversight body, the FISA Court.
♦ December 2016, worried about Trump now discovering the NSA database spying, the Obama administration wraps the Clinton smear into official policy, blaming the Russians and validating Crossfire Hurricane. That’s where the Intelligence Community Assessment becomes critical.
♦ May 2017, needing to extend the coverup of the FBI activity, special counsel Robert Mueller then takes over Crossfire Hurricane. All FBI evidence and personnel transfers to Mueller.
♦ April 2019, Robert Mueller operation wraps up, prior activity coverup shifts to Impeachment process.
♦ July 2019, John Durham kicks in extending DOJ/FBI control through 2020 election.
♦ Fall 2020, mail-in ballots triggered to facilitate 2020 election outcome.
♦ January 2021, FBI triggers Operation Arctic Frost, targeting Trump supporters and 2020 election researchers. FBI again using NSA database search queries to identify targeting.
♦ March 2021, FBI Arctic Frost results fed to J6 Committee and DHS. TSA trigger “Quiet Skies” targeting via results from Arctic Frost.
♦ August 2022, FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago to retrieve any evidence Donald Trump might have of FBI spying and surveillance activity.
♦ September 2023, Jack Smith targets congressional members who had contact with President Trump.
It’s one long continuum of coverup activity within Main Justice and the FBI, supported by all other various agencies who operate in support. What are they covering up? The 2012 through 2016 political spying operation within the Obama administration, as carried out by the same Main Justice and FBI operations.
Posted originally on CTH on October 1, 2025 | Sundance
Information from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services as they conducted an operation from September 19th through September 28th in Minneapolis, St Paul. Stunning immigration fraud.
MINNEAPOLIS – U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, in coordination with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, conducted Operation Twin Shield, the first of its kind targeted surge of fraud detection and deterrence activities across Minneapolis-St. Paul and surrounding areas Sept. 19 to 28 —immigration officers discovered suspected fraud in 275 cases in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.
The effort focused on site visits and targeted verifications for applicants and petitioners with pending immigration benefits who matched specified risk criteria. The operation aligns with Executive Order 14161, Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threat. The types of applications for immigration benefits investigated included marriage and family-based petitions, employment authorizations, and certain parole-related requests.
Operation Twin Shield was a resounding success: USCIS officers focused on more than 1,000 cases that had fraud or ineligibility indicators, conducted over 900 site visits and in-person interviews, and found evidence of fraud, non-compliance, or public safety or national security concerns in 275 cases—44 percent of cases interviewed. USCIS coordinated with our ICE and FBI partners, who provided valuable assistance during the operation. As of today, USCIS issued Notices to Appear (NTAs) or referred aliens to ICE in 42 cases, and 4 aliens were apprehended. USCIS expects data on NTAs, referrals to ICE, and adverse adjudicative actions to increase as more administrative investigations are completed.
Operation Twin Shield uncovered many lies. For example, one alien admitted to fabricating a death certificate from Kenya for $100 to falsely claim the termination of a marriage—the spouse in question is alive, residing in Minneapolis, and is the mother of five of his children. In another case, an alien is the son of a known or suspected terrorist, he also overstayed his visa, and was previously found to have engaged in marriage fraud that resulted in the denial of several immigration benefit requests. In another case, a petitioner admitted to officers with Operation Twin Shield that she commited marriage fraud; this was only a few hours after swearing that her marriage was bona fide during an interview at our Minneapolis office. In another case, an alien engaged in marriage fraud by taking advantage of an elderly U.S. citizen spouse, including subjecting the spouse to elder abuse and exploitation. This is a small sample of the immigration fraud USCIS officers across the nation combat every single day.
“USCIS is declaring an all-out war on immigration fraud. We will relentlessly pursue everyone involved in undermining the integrity of our immigration system and laws. With help from ICE and the FBI, USCIS’ Operation Twin Shield was a tremendous success—hundreds of bad actors will be held accountable,” said USCIS Director Joseph B. Edlow. “Immigration fraud undermines the integrity of our lawful immigration system, harms those who follow the law, and poses risks to national security and public safety. Under President Trump, we will leave no stone unturned.”
Operation Twin Shield is the first time USCIS dedicated resources on this scale in a single geographical area. Unlike during the Biden administration, USCIS immigration officers are now empowered to thoroughly vet aliens as required by law, and to pursue immigration fraud wherever it’s encountered. (SOURCE)
Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.
Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.
A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.
Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.
I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.
I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.
Please do not get discouraged.
Cheers
FDS
REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.
As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.
If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.
Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.
Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”
“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”
I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.
The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.
Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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