Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted Feb 19, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
I wonder if you can comment on the potential of the swift system being replaced by Ripple lab’s XRP as a bridging currency between currency pairs making use of their patented “On-Demand Liquidity” system. If this is the case then it would appear the USD is set to be replaced as the world reserve currency commodities being priced in local currency.
The IMF has stated they want to renegotiate the Bretton Woods agreement. Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England said at the 2019 Jackson hole meeting that the USD is too dominant and proposed it be replaced by a green cryptocurrency such as XRP.
The world economic Forum is touting Ripple lab’s platform as the future.
Without going full conspiracy theory in this. It would seem plausible that something like this is in the offing
The SEC lawsuit against Ripple seems a little sinister given that the DOJ already found XRP to be a digital asset, not a security, and has the potential to push Ripple offshore to a more friendly jurisdiction. Which the globalists would love.
I’m rambling, I’m sorry, however, could you speak on the swift system and potential replacement and any other topic I’ve touched on if you have the time or inclination even to dismiss.
Thanks, Martin you were born to live through this moment.
ANSWER: XRP is a digital asset built for payments. It is the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger—an open-source, permissionless, and decentralized blockchain technology that can settle transactions in 3-5 seconds. The reason these people are pushing this is not about the dollar, it is to end paper money and thereby they see this as the solution to 6 years of quantitative easing which failed to stimulate the economy because the velocity of money declined as people hoarded their cash instead of spending it. This would also terminate all cryptocurrency.
Either Mark Carney and the IMF are completely ignorant as to why the dollar is the reserve currency that nobody else can displace, or they are deliberately hiding the truth which is a major default on world sovereign debt. The dollar is the reserve currency for three primary reasons.
- The US dollar has no restrictions and anyone can issue debt in dollars without controls
- The US dollar has never been canceled
- The US economy is the largest in the world but with the core consumer market to which the world sells
Europe routinely cancels its currency which introduces risk which prevents it from being used internationally. While they have not canceled the €500 note, few people will accept them for fear of being canceled. Even India canceled its high-end notes which I have from the last time I went to India to meet with our institutional clients there. Only the dollar remains legal tender since 1861 and Trudeau had a law passed in Canada withdrawing the legal tender status of some notes by January 1sy, 2021, which now allows him to cancel all paper money at his pleasure. Canadian dollars now have a risk of cancellation as of January 1st, 2021.
Note that prior to World War I, most bonds issued by foreign countries using in another’s country currency involved the British pound which was the reserve currency prior to World War I. After that, it was the dollar that rose to the status of a reserve currency when Europe decided to blow each other up.
While Germany may be the biggest economy within Europe, the mercantile economic policy and high taxes in fear of hyperinflation since World War II has rendered the Germans near the bottom of the wealth list among the EU. The significance of this is very important. It means that Germany did not develop the same robust economy based upon consumer demand. They relied upon selling things to other countries which was why Kohl was pushing for a single currency to enable Germany to sell even more to the rest of Europe by reducing currency risk.
Pricing commodities in this XRP will by no means eliminate the dollar as the reserve currency. It would require the United States to terminate the dollar and accept XRP. Otherwise, all that will happen is introduce greater volatility forcing American companies into hedging FX risk between the dollar and XRP.
For years, all we ever heard was if they price oil in Euro that will kill the dollar. These people just totally fail to grasp the complexity behind what even makes a currency. Then we have heard how the dollar will crumble to ash because of debt. Yet total sovereign world debt is nearing $200 trillion and the USA is just under 15% of that. These people have no idea of what they are talking about. Other nations are in far worse shape not because of Debt to GDP, but because they lack the underlying consumer-based economy. This is WHY China is diligently following the US model and not that of Germany. They have turned inward and are moving to generate the world’s largest consumer-based economy which is WHY they will surpass the United States which is being taken over by the same European Marxist agenda which has relegated Europe to the third world status. The Top 10 economies in the world only include three EU countries in nominal terms:
1. United States
6. United Kingdom
If we measure these economies accounting for purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, which relate the exchange rate between currencies to consumer price levels, the picture changes. China is the world’s largest economy since 2017 in PPP terms according to estimates by the World Bank which uses international dollars to make better comparisons among countries. This introduces FX risk. Therefore, in PPP terms, the U.S. is second with about a 15.8% share of world GDP. The European Union was in third place, contributing $19.9 trillion, or 15.3%, of world GDP.
Therefore, the push behind XRP requires 5G communication speed to be able to instantly clear transactions. Without that, you cannot replace paper currency. Consequently, the only way to move to electronic money in order to eliminate non-taxable hidden cash and the underground economy is to move toward the digital world. In the United States, in 2020, it is estimated that the underground economy is about 11 or 12% of U.S. GDP, or roughly $2.5 trillion total. Politicians look at that and see dollar sign visions in their heads.
Politicians blame their fiscal mismanagement and their political failures NEVER on themselves, but always on we the Great Unwashed who are never trustworthy. Even an IRS, SEC, CFTC, or any agent who audits the private sector begins with the assumption everyone is a criminal. They have to find something or else they did not do their job.
As a result, politicians are obsessed with eliminating paper money to end the hoarding of cash and the underground economy. You hire the teenage girl next door to babysit and then pay her cash. OMG, the government laments, where is our taxes? Or you found a $1 bill in the sparkling lot. They can’t sleep at night worrying about how much they are losing in tax revenue.
Hence, XRP is primarily for that purpose. To eliminate the underground economy. This has been going on for thousands of years. Here is an ancient Roman prostitute token. Roman Empire Tiberius (14-27AD) declared that you could not pay a prostitute with a coin that bore the image of the emperor. So they trade coined these tokens. You would buy the token from a money changer and use that to pay the prostitute. She, in turn, would take them back to the money changer and he would swap them out for money.
No matter how politicians try to eliminate the underground economy, all they will do is give rise to the reestablishment of barter. In prison, cigarettes were money. Then packs of mackerel. Who knows what will emerge? USB sticks?