Posted originally on Jun 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The consumer price index rose by 0.1% in May, bringing the annual rate of inflation to 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%.
Energy prices fell 2% last month, with gasoline experiencing a 2.6% decline that marked nearly a 12% year-over-year decrease. Fuel oil is down 9.6% for the year, but rose slightly by 0.9% on the month. Energy services rose 0.7% MoM and 6.2% YoY. Electricity ticked up 0.9% for the month; 3.6% for the year. Utilities have been experiencing a notable downtick after declining 1% in May and 15.7% for the year.
Food prices rose 0.3% on the monthly and 2.8% annually. Eggs, the media’s favorite item to watch, fell 2.7% for the month but still remain elevated by 41.5% compared to May 2024. Meats, poultry, fish, eggs saw a significant annual increase of 7%. Dairy items are up 1.6% in the past 12 months, and nonalcoholic beverages rose 3.2% in the same period. Food away from home rose 3.9% in the past year, with food at home rising 2% in the same time period. Full service meals and snacks are up 4.3% on the annual.
Shelter is the other major pain point for Americans, with costs rising 0.3% for the month and 4% in the past year. Rentals are increasing by 4% annually, with owners’ equivalent rent rising by 4.3%.
Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week to discuss rates, a hotly debated topic. Vice President JD Vance lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering rates. “The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.
Interest rates are not some magic lever to fix job numbers or inflation. Vance, like many in Washington, is using Powell as a scapegoat for economic issues that stem from decades of fiscal mismanagement, overregulation, and government spending. Six months of a new administration cannot undo decades of failed policies. Moody’s downgraded the nation’s credit score for the first time. Powell must signal that US Treasuries remain a safe haven.
Cut prematurely, and we risk capital flight. Jerome Powell is doing his job in the face of real inflation, which isn’t malpractice. It’s what you do when you want the bond market to keep financing US debt.
Posted originally on Jun 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
While domestic small businesses suffered under Biden-Harris, Ukraine saw a boost in their small business thanks to billions in grants that were paid for by the US taxpayer. USAID subsidized Ukrainian businesses through co-investment programs, interest rate compensation on loans, cashback incentives for leading equipment, and direct financial support. All in all, USAID’s “Investment for Business Resilience Activity” provided $100 million in investments.
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics was altering data on domestic jobs while other branches of the government were focused on maintaining Ukraine’s workforce. The aforementioned USAID program supported over 1,050 businesses and allegedly saved nearly 18,000 jobs.
USAID was working directly with Ukrainian banks to help lower borrowing costs to small and medium enterprises. Trump immediately halted this program in January 2025. The average person simply does not understand how much money the Biden Administration was sending to Ukraine.
US taxpayers supported the entire Ukrainian government. Over $30 billion was sent to Ukraine in a two-year period to pay for “essential government operations.” Americans were forced to pay for public servants’ salaries, pensions, healthcare, and more. None of this includes the tens of billions spent on military-related items or humanitarian aid.
Americans did not vote to use their public funds in this manner. The domestic economy was suffering from record inflation post-COVID. Domestic entrepreneurs could not secure business loans. There is a clear pattern of one political party prioritizing foreign entities over its own citizens.
Now, the Trump Administration announced that it needs to make additional cuts to Ukrainian assistance. “This administration takes a very different view of that conflict. We believe that a negotiated peaceful settlement is in the best interest of both parties and our nation’s interests, especially with all the competing interests around the globe,” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explained. The complete 2026 budget has not yet been released by the Pentagon, but Hegseth said it “provides a historic level of funding for military readiness, putting (U.S.) warfighters and their needs first.”
Using American funds to prioritize America—what a novel concept. This is why Trump and Vance had a shouting match with Zelensky during his failed Oval Office visit. Zelensky feels entitled to US funding after years of using US public funds as his personal ATM under Biden.
The European Union now funds around84% of Ukraine’s operations. It is expected that the bloc will spend around $40 billion on external financing needs in 2025. The Ukraine Facility instrument provides €50 billion in “flexible support” for Ukraine over a three-year period. They’re using frozen Russian assets to fund this account since the EU simply does not have the money to prop up a foreign government.
This has been an extremely expensive war and it is nowhere near over. I should add that US assistance was all provided outside the regular defense budget. This occurred during peacetime in a war that in no way involved the United States. This is what happens when a foreign nation blackmails the president of the world’s leading superpower.
Biden’s crime family received over $20 million from Ukraine in “influence peddling” schemes. Hunter Biden secured $11 million for his personal company through Burisma. FBI informant, Alexander Smirnov, said under oath that Burisma selected Hunter to “protect us, through his dad, from all kinds of problems.” The text messages stored on Hunter’s laptop revealed that he openly threatened people using his father’s name while his father was the vice president. Joe Biden accepted bribes and altered US policy to support his son and line his pockets. The CCP also had the Biden family in their pocket.
Decreasing, if not ceasing, funding for Ukraine is long overdue. Imagine if those funds were invested in the domestic economy rather than laundered through under-the-table deals. Americans are not responsible for subsidizing Ukraine.
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