The Crisis is Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is finding his dreams of an all-powerful resurrection of the Ottoman Empire are falling apart. Qatar has come to the aid of Turkey offering $15 billion in a loan, but keep in mind that the entire issue with Syria began with Qatar proposing a pipeline through Syria to compete with natural gas with Russia. Therefore, it is in Qatar’s best interest to keep Turkey trying to invade Syria. The price will be the pipeline, which we seriously doubt will ever take place.

Erdogan has sent the Turkish economy into a downward spiral for some time. Its soaring inflation has exceeded 100% and rising debt-to-GDP of about 70% under President Recep Erdogan’s regime has been a growing problem. As central banks pumped money into the system over the past decade, nations like Turkey and other emerging market economies used the opportunity to raise more and more “cheap” debt to boost their productivity. Turkey has attracted capital from Europe seeking higher yields because of the negative interest rates policy of the ECB. Now we have a crisis in Turkey that is also the result of Draghi’s Quantitative Easing that drove capital to Turkey and FAILED to revived the European economy.

Erdogan’s dream of restoring the Ottoman Empire is no joke. It has been European money seeking higher yield that kept him in power. It is curious how those who seek dictatorial power are the ones who dream of restoring the power of empires long since dead. Erdogan has wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire just as the dream of the reestablishment of the old Roman Empire as was the desire behind Napoleon and Hitler. The days of Empire Building are long gone and Erdogan has been living in the past. His goal was to expand his country’s military operations in Syria and this, he hoped, would be the first step as with Hitler’s invasion of Poland.

Nevertheless, the Turkish lira collapse and the expensive dollar have been conspiring against him reflecting his disastrous management of the economy and the collapse in confidence among the Turkish people. There remain serious questions about elections in Turkey being rigged to keep him in power. Therefore, on the one hand, Erdogan is attracted to dealing with Russia who is on the opposite side of the game board with Qatar. Erdogan has the free markets moving against him and he is more likely to turn to Russia than the West to retain personal power and the free markets show what most likely the real sentiment of the Turkish people was for the fake elections. Consequently, Erdogan turned to Qatar because he was desperate for money to retain personal power. If he loses the support of his military, then they will side with the people and Erdogan’s head may end up on a spike. Qatar will discover they are dealing with someone who will not be loyal to them either. Yet, the financial markets are working against Erdogan and as the crisis continues to evolve in the months ahead as $15 billion will not reverse the crisis, Turkey can hardly afford military adventures. Erdogan will be more likely to turn to Russia when he cannot retain power otherwise. He can blame the USA all he wants publicly, but the free markets are conspiring against him and that includes his own people.

Many European institutions rushed into Turkey and bought their bonds at 20%. Many Spanish banks had capital was invested in Turkish bonds to get the higher yield to the tune of on average 20%+. Based on the phone calls, there are way too many institutions who invested into Turkey. They simply assumed that NO government defaults because the powers that be will always bail out the bondholders. This time the IMF is really powerless. They can make some noise and others will say the crisis is subsiding. However, this is just talking. There is nobody who can save Turkey at this point as long as Erdogan remains in power. Qatar will discover that Turkey is a bottomless pit. They will try to now ease the crisis with words because of the extensive foolishness of banks and pension funds who bought Turkey bonds to try to get yield.

The fall in the Turkish lira has also benefited the Syrian Army, which launched an offensive on the last large mercenary fortress in Idlib. Turkey was actually against the offensive because it feared that it would fall to Syria and that is against Erdogan’s dreams of taking more territory. What is not really looked at internationally is the plain fact that Turkey does not have its own arms industry. Erdogan needs arms to be imported and as the lira crisis materialized, his Turkish operation Olive branch and shield of the Euphrates in Syria become rapidly too expensive. Back in January 2018, the Siyasi Haber newspaper reported that an estimated $400 million was being spent on Operation Olive Branch alone. Erdogan has spent over $1 billion so far in his attempt to conquer that region of Syria.

Instead of building his economy and benefiting the people of Turkey, Erdogan has been more interested in resurrecting the Ottoman Empire. It has been his mismanagement of the economy and his hostile attitude even to Greece that is behind the Turkish Lira Crisis. He has lost the confidence of his own people! August has been our target for the crisis and so far the computer has been correct on that score. However, volatility will remain high going into October and then we see it will return as the new year begins. Qatar coming to the rescue should help support the lira for now. Those who are wise had better sell their Turkish bonds and step oy of this trade. August should prove to be only a temporary low for the lira

Romanians Out Again over Government Corruption

Once again, tens of thousands of Romanians have taken to the streets demanding the end of corruption in government. At least 450 people were injured in clashes with the police who are still defending the government against the people. We are looking at a worldwide epidemic of corruption in government that has known no bounds. This is part of the very reason why Trump was able to beat every career politician. But like Erdogan, those in power refuse to ever admit that they are the reason for the political changes.

Unfortunately, in the United States, we not only have the police defending the government, we also have the press like CNN, Washington Post, and the New York Times. All they do is try to overthrown Trump instead of looking at the system and WHY he was elected to begin with. They are all supporting the inherent corruption because they like things as they are. What we are witnessing in Romania is also unfolding in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Malaysia, and even in Britain. This is a worldwide political change in trend and we really have to begin to look at the trend and not just the face of Trump

Iran and & Turkey Ripe for Revolution?

A Revolution is brewing not just in Turkey, but also in Iran. More than 100,000 people have taken to the streets chanting death to the dictator. The currency has simply collapsed as it moves into hyperinflation. Once again, as we see this take place, CONFIDENCE in the government is collapsing. This is the key to revolution. Once the people lose CONFIDENCE, then the game changes. That does not mean in either the case of Turkey of Iran that the government will just go into the light voluntarily. In both cases, the governments are really dictatorships and they will NOT relinquish power willingly anymore that we see in Venezuela. As long as the police and the army support dictators, then regime change WILL NOT come peacefully. In both cases, they will even resort to creating wars as a distraction to retain power.

The more chaos that unfolds, the stronger the US dollar becomes. Capital will ALWAYS flee from wherever the war unfolds. In this case, do not consider that these governments will simply surrender power voluntarily. They will both turn toward Russia for help and portray their political crisis as a CIA plot. That is rather absurd but it will surface anyway. This is standard behavior whenever a currency moves into hyperinflation as the CONFIDENCE in the immediate government collapses. This is WHY the people need guns. Take the guns away from the people and there is never an ability to defend against a government which is desperately trying to retain power as we see in Venezuela

The German Government Pays for 3 Week Vacation for Refugees to Go Home

You really cannot make up a story like this, because it sounds just so unbelievable. I am in Germany on business and did not see the place overrun with refugees as on my last trip. So I made some inquiries. To my complete astonishment, the German government is actually giving refugees three weeks paid vacations INCLUDING airfare BACK to the very countries that claim they are fleeing because it is unsafe.

So in other words, despite claiming their lives would be at risk if they were forced to return home, the government is paying them for a vacation to the very place they claim to be fleeing. You just cannot make up such a completely insane government policy. I know someone who works with the refugees and they confirm they are on vacation back home. Therefore, asylum seekers are nonetheless returning to their homeland for a “short time”.

I searched to see if I could find any article on the subject. I found how most are trying to cover the practice up. reported that a German Federal Employment Office spokesman said: “There are such cases.” Some stories are trying to deny the issue which was first reported by the leading German newspaper Die Welt am Sonntag, Refugees go on vacation, where they are allegedly persecuted which reinforces the growing problem caused by the fact refugees are allowed to leave the country for 21 days a year but are not obliged to say where they are going. Migrants are protected and are entitled to “privacy”.

My sources in Switzerland have confirmed the same problem, Dozens of asylum seekers who had apparently turned up penniless after fleeing what they said was a war zone were found to have flown home on holiday.

Die Welt reported just how screwed up the government is. There is no communication between government agencies. If an advisor in the Employment Agency gets wind that someone wants to go to Syria, for example, Die Welt reported they are not supposed to pass this information along due to data protection issues.

There is no actual proof that people a person is really persecuted in the home country. Syria was at least a war zone. People have been pouring in from all over North Africa which is not in a state of war. If someone is taking a vacation for 21 days at government expence back to the place they fled, common sense dictates they are not refugees. Government incompetent is just off the charts.

EU Regulation Leads to Wholesale Slaughter of Sheep


In Bulgaria, a farmer had one sheep that died unexpectedly and another which grew sick but survived. Both animals returned negative test results for a disease known as ovine rinderpest. The Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Forestry slaughtered the entire herd and paid the farmer below replacement cost to save money for the state and then banned them from having livestock for six months. The government explained in a statement that as an EU member state, Bulgaria can legally institute animal vaccines by FORCE if it is in the essential interests of the community it is affecting. However, if Bulgaria adopts that policy, then the EU automatically imposes a ban on live animal trade and the exportation of meat and dairy products for at least two years following such a decision. Therefore, simply because of an EU regulation, animals are just slaughtered on a wholesale basis even if they do not test positive for a disease but might.

Magnitsky Act & the Strange Backdrop

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong – thanks for your efforts on providing us with links to the Magnitski video. I began watching the video last night and then came back to it this morning and was truly amazed that the link was no longer active.

I’m curious. Was Magnitski ever charged with anything and or why were they holding him? Yes, you are living proof that one can be held without a charge, but in your case, they wanted something. What is it that they wanted from Magnitski? Perhaps it’s obvious and I’m hoping you can fill in that void.

Again, thanks for the efforts to provide us with a different ways to look and understand our world!

Best regards,

ANSWER: The director of the film, Andrei Lvovich Nekrasov, obviously began the film believing Browder. The more he dug into the film, the more the alibi of Browder did not make any sense. What he failed to do was actually investigate Hermitage Capital beyond 2000. If he did, he would discover that Browder was a MINORITY shareholder and Edmond Safra was the MAJORITY through Republic National Bank. Only after Safra was murdered, probably by Putin for allegedly blackmailing Yeltsin, then in the takeover of Republic National Bank, HSBC did not want to have anything to do with Hermitage Capital from an ownership perspective. They became the manager & trustee of the fund, which was very unusual to wear two hats if not unethical. That is when Browder gained his MAJORITY shareholding.

I believe Magnitsky was being held not just simply because of tax fraud in Russia by Hermitage Capital, but also for its involvement in the blackmail of Russia which ended up involving the Bank of New York $7 billion money-laundering case. CNN Money reported on September 1st, 1999 before everyone removed the theft from the IMF: “[They] funnel billions of IMF money meant to help transfer Russia’s communist economy into a capitalist one through a private company called Benex Worldwide Ltd. Eventually, the money went into and back out of Bank of New York (BK) and Republic National Bank, a unit of Republic Bancorp (RBNC), as well as several institutions in Europe, including the Union Bank of Switzerland AG and Deutsche Bank AG and its Bankers Trust Unit.” Nekrasov has had his hands full just trying to get the film shown. He is up against tremendous obstacles to shutting it down by Browder. (let’s see how long it takes them to remove the CNN story which states what I have been saying for years, they got Yeltsin to take funds from the IMF)

This is just the tip of the truth behind the entire case. I believe Magnitsky was being held in hopes that he would give evidence against the entire affair and that went beyond just tax evasion. What is really strange is that Browder resigned his American citizenship to escape worldwide taxation, yet he is able to get John McCain to sponsor his Magnitsky Act trying to get his money back from Russia. The US government has used the Magnitsky Act to demonize Russia and Putin and it has kept adding people to the list who cannot come to the USA even though they have NEVER been tried, charged, and had no connection with Magnitsky whatsoever. There is obviously duel purposes being served here and those in Congress just overlook Browder and his history

Refugees Storming Ceuta Border to Get Free Welfare

The rush to get into Europe for free welfare has led to a land invasion of Spanish territory in Africa. Around 400 African refugees stormed the beautiful Spanish exclave Ceuta on the border with Morocco just on the African side of the Pillars of Hercules. They have climbed over the double barbed wire fence which are over 18 ft tall (6 meters). They attacked guards throwing corrosive Quicklime at them, which of course burns. Quicklime is not a very stable material. Due to lime being an alkaline product, contact with skin can cause full scale burning. Attacking the border guard to get in is certainly not the type of person you want to offer shelter to under these circumstances.

Ceuta and Melilla, also a Spanish exclave, are effectively the only EU external borders on the African continent. Therefore refugees are simply invading like barbarians but want handouts. More than 850 refugees had crossed the border to Ceuta in a single month. Spain has recently overtaken Italy in becoming the number destination for newly arrived boat people. Almost 19,600 people arrived in Spain since the start of 2018, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

The Refugee Crisis – Germany Can’t Find 50% of those They Now Want to Deport

Merkel’s nightmare is simply beyond description. Now that Europe is trying to at least deport some of these pretend “refugee” migrants from North Africa, the shocking reality is starting to surface. Now 50% of the “refugee” migrants cannot be deported from Germany because nobody can find them. According to a report, every second person to be deported is simply not found. By the end of May, of the about 23,900 announced repatriations, Germany could only find about 11,100 who were actually deported. Around 12,800 deportations that the government attempted could not be completed because the people could not be found. They have permanently infiltrated Europe and are not embedded deeply in the underground economy.

The entire movement in Britain where they called anyone who was against allowing wholesale “refugee” migrants into Britain were labeled “racists” and horrible people. There is now absolutely no way to even deport half of the migrants when the governments are absolutely clueless as to their whereabouts. These can be more than just rapists, now you have within this group the clear distinction of possible terrorists just waiting for the right moment.

The images of cute children were used to open the doors to Europe. But more than 70% were not families, but young men. Photos of boats from North Africa of migrants clearly show the lack of women and children. You would think that if this was a legitimate refugee operation, the people would have been limited to Syria and that ONLY families should have been allowed to enter. Was it really that hard to use a little common sense?

The future of NATO

Published on Jul 12, 2018

Arguably the most successful alliance in human history, NATO’s very existence is under attack. Are we about to commit a tragic error, or is it time for a long-overdue restructuring?

The Violence in Northern Ireland is Not Finished

Reuters is reporting that Northern Ireland was hit by a new wave of street violence overnight on the eve of annual parades. This is demonstrating that there remains underlying tensions between pro-British Protestants and Irish nationalist Catholics in the British occupied region. Vehicles were set on fire, petrol bombs were thrown, and roads were closed off in violence in several towns. The parade marks the 1690 victory of Protestant King William of Orange over Catholic King James of England. Therefore, it feeds right into the conflict between the Protestants and Catholics which has existed since the time of Henry VIII’s seizure of the Catholic Church to affect the divorce he was being denied.

The first death in the conflict in Belfast is disputed involving Francis McCloskey (aged 67) who died one day after being hit on the head with a baton by a member of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) during street disturbances in Dungiven, County Derry on Sunday, July 14th, 1968. The official first death was the fatal shooting of a Catholic on Thursday, August 14th, 1969. The person was John Gallagher was shot dead by the Ulster Special Constabulary (‘B-Specials’) during street disturbances on the Cathedral Road in Armagh. John Gallagher is recorded as the first ‘official’ victim of tensions in Northern Ireland. The first Protestant Civilian to be killed took place on Friday, August 15th, 1969 named David Linton (aged 48) who died after being shot by a Republican group during street disturbances in North Belfast. The actual first members of Irish Republican Army (IRA) to be killed took place on Friday, August 15th, 1969. His name was Gerald McAuley (aged 15), who was a member of Fianna Éireann, which was the youth section of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). He was shot dead by Loyalists during street disturbances in the Lower Falls area of Belfast.

From a cyclical perspective, if we begin on August 15th, 1969, then we are concluding a 51.6-year wave on 2021.2219178, which will be March 22nd. It is lining up with the Economic Confidence Model and the Monetary Crisis Cycle. Therefore, the violence will reemerge with a new trend once again driven by economics. Violence has continued sporadically but it has been rising gradually again since 2013.






The violence against Irish Catholics in America erupted in 1844 during the Sovereign Debt Defaults of states and the economic decline in the aftermath of the Panic of 1837 (Dates of ECM Waves). When Andrew Jackson shut down the central bank, the Bank of the United States at that time, all banks began to issue money of their own. The economy was flooded with frauds and nobody knew what banks were real or safe. As banks failed, the States tried to bail out the banks to save their economy and they too were pushed into default. The Depression that followed raised unemployment and violence.