Tag Archives: Big Government

Jun 5 2024

Fed President Says Americans Would Prefer a Recession to Inflation


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Fed Ship in STorm

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.

“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.

3 faces of Inflation Dragon

Vague issues such as rising unemployment or declining wages do not impact everyone. “I lose my job, I lean on my sister or my parents or my friends, and they help me through it. But high inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing,” Kashkari explained. Mass layoffs, for example, would only impact a fragment of the overall population, and people would feel lucky simply to keep their jobs.

“In the US, GDP has been remarkably strong, very strong,” he noted. “The labor market has been resilient. Wage growth has been mostly resilient. And we’re seeing even the housing market has shown signs of resilience. So if I look at this resilience and economic activity, that does not look like an economy that is under pressure of very high, very tight monetary policy.” Yet, inflation is outpacing wage increases and people are watching their savings dwindle while spending less. The average person cares not of the health of the overall economy as they simply want to be able to continue maintaining or improving their standard of living. Most Americans, for example, do not invest and live paycheck to paycheck.

CPI Formula

Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.

Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.

Jun 3 2024

Hillary: If Trump Wins it Will Be the End of All Elections


Posted originally on Jun 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Hillary Red

Hillary Clinton has a new scapegoat for her failed presidential elections – women. Women, or the 50% of the population, that many Democrats refuse even to define or acknowledge. While promoting her book, “The Fall of Roe: The Rise of a New America,” Clinton vocalized that losing the female vote potentially cost her the election.

Hillary stated that women voters expected her to be “perfect,” and that was simply the only reason they chose to vote for a different candidate. “They left me because they just couldn’t take a risk on me, because as a woman, I’m supposed to be perfect. They were willing to take a risk on Trump — who had a long list of, let’s call them flaws, to illustrate his imperfection — because he was a man, and they could envision a man as president and commander in chief,” Times reported.

Then, Hillary claimed that she would have protected abortion rights if elected. Clinton simply does not realize that not all female voters support that measure, which is often a one-issue voter stance that can cause voters to switch parties. She has gone as far as to claim a Donald Trump presidency would lead to the loss of all female reproductive rights. Does she recall that we had him as president for four years, and none of this happened?

Abortion Protests

Clinton has become hysterical in her hatred for Donald Trump. Combining Roe and Trump, Hillary is telling anyone willing to listen that this will lead to the demise of democracy.

“This election is existential. I mean, if we don’t make the right decision in this election in our country, we may never have another actual election. I will put that out there because I believe it,” she said. “And if we no longer have another actual election, we will be governed by a small minority of right-wing forces that are well organized and well funded and are getting exactly what they want in terms of turning the clock back on women.”

MAGA, Conservatives, Independents, and anyone who does not agree with the left is considered the “small minority” of extremists by the media and current establishment. Personally this feels as if it is a threat from the left – vote for me or risk never voting again because we cannot trust the Great Unwashed to promote our chosen candidates.

The media has long forgotten the violence that unfolded in 2020 that was primarily carried out by the left. They were permitted to burn US cities with no consequences. Left-leaning philanthropists who admit to meddling in politics funded these activities openly. Yet, the non-violent protest on the capitol on January 6 has become the paramount issue and everyone involved has been prosecuted to the fullest degree of the law.

“One thing I give the right credit for is they never give up,” Clinton said. “They are relentless. You know, they take a loss, they get back up, they regroup, they raise more money…It’s tremendously impressive the way that they operate. And we have nothing like it on our side.” The media is gas lighting the public to believe that the “small minority” who oppose war, open borders, and an destroyed economy are threatening the very existence of the United States.

The left only has Roe to run on at this point, and not every woman (undefined) does not support the measure. This may very well be the last US Presidential Election we see, but rest assured it will not be solely due to the right. Absolutely no one will accept the outcome this November regardless of who secures the vote. The people no longer trust the election process and have become so extremely divided that they cannot imagine another four years with either candidate.

Jun 3 2024

Sunday Talks – ABC George Stephanopoulos Claims Trump Prosecution Not Motivated by Politics


Posted originally on the CTH on June 2, 2024 | Sundance

Some of the commentary made by MSM political pundits is so over-the-top biased and fraught with manipulative intent the light from the place where narrative engineering emanates could not reach their bias for a year.  It is infuriating in the extreme.

Entering the game of gaslighting comes one of the most politically conniving narrative engineers in media, George Stephanopoulos.   Today, during an interview with President Trump attorney Will Scharf, Stephanopoulos attempts to claim the Biden administration was not involved in the Alvin Bragg case against President Trump.

Speaking on “ABC’s This Week,” Stephanopoulos claimed, “of course, the attorney general of Manhattan has nothing to do with the Department of Justice.”  Scharf replied: “I vehemently disagree that the district attorney in New York was not politically motivated here, and I vehemently disagree that President Biden and his political allies aren’t up to their necks in this prosecution.”  WATCH:

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Jun 2 2024

Mills: Biden Admin Trying To Get Israel Peace Deal Before Netanyahu Gov’t Collapse


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 1, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Jun 2 2024

Good: House Majority Has Surrendered To Democrats For The Last Year And A Half


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: JUNE 1, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Jun 1 2024

Senator Joe Manchin (WV) Quits Democrat Party, Registers as Independent – Will Likely Caucus With Democrats, So No Change


Posted originally on the CTH on May 31, 2024 | Sundance

U.S. Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia is the modern version of Bill Clinton.  A lying liar who lies and works hard to retain the impression of being ‘aw shucks’ reasonable and affable; but it’s all an illusion targeting a certain West Virginia demographic.

In reality, beyond the mask Joe Manchin belongs to the party of self-importance and DeceptCon politics.  He always ends up supporting the leftist policy he pretends to try and mitigate. {GO DEEP}

With the national spotlight on judicial corruption, weaponized government and the overwhelming majority of the American people outraged at the events in New York City courts, Senator Manchin sees the opportunity to exploit the sentiment for his own interests.  Here’s the audio/visual:

[SOURCE – Via Twitter]

WASHINGTON DC – West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat, officially filed as an independent Friday.

“My commitment to do everything I can to bring out country together has led me to register as an independent with no party affiliation,” Manchin posted on the social platform X.

Manchin announced in November that he wouldn’t be running for reelection this year, after serving in the Senate since 2010. Before coming to Congress, he served as the governor of West Virginia from 2005-10.

“Throughout my days in elected office, I have always been proud of my commitment to common sense, bipartisanship and my desire to bring people together. It’s who I am,” Manchin said in a statement released Friday. “It’s who I will always be.”

He signaled Wednesday that he would not enter the governor’s race this year, shooting down rumors that he may campaign again for the office.

In a statement Friday, Manchin said partisanship on both sides has jeopardized democracy. National politics in America is broken, and neither side is willing to compromise, he said.

“To stay true to myself and remain committed to put country before party, I have decided to register as an independent with no party affiliation and continue to fight for America’s sensible majority,” he said. (read more)

As long as you vote with us, we don’t care how you manipulate the optics of Trump in your favor. You do you. We cool?….

{ Go Deep }

Jun 1 2024

My Letter to President Trump – March 2020 – Dawn of COVID Lockdowns


Posted originally on May 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

ArmstrongEconomicsLogo.AEGlobalLogo

President Donald Trump                                                                                     March 19, 2020

White House

1600 Pennsylvania Ave, NW

Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President,

As an economist with a proven track record, I have been called in by former presidents, world leaders, and central banks around the world during crises since 1985. I was summoned for help during the 1987 Crash. I was perhaps the first American analyst to be invited by the central bank of China and flew to Beijing during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. I have testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. Major political leaders have been guest speakers at our World Economic Conferences, not merely Margaret Thatcher, but your friend Nigel Farage spoke at our Rome Conference in May 2019.

All of the economic stimulus packages will not save the day as long as the people have lost confidence in the future. There must be serious out-of-box solutions, for the catastrophic economic damage the health organizations and media have created is unimaginable.

It is true that if we all stay home every day and just watch TV we can beat the common cold. The damage these people have done when there are less than 200 deaths compared to over 1 million people who die in car accidents each year makes one wonder why we do not prohibit cars. Nearly 500,000 die of smoking each year, why do we allow tobacco companies to continue operating? There are costs that must be weighed and the losses these people have created by yelling fire in a theater is staggering.

The damage that has been done by the CDC in sacrificing the entire economy for a virus, which is minimal compared to the flu, and has already peaked in China and South Korea, amounts to yelling fire in a crowded theater. They have undermined the world economy and the amount of people who have lost jobs worldwide is staggering.

Students and young voters work in restaurants as servers. They have lost their jobs by closing restaurants unnecessarily. They are excluded from the bankruptcy laws and are saddled with worthless degrees that do not guarantee jobs. Most students end up in professions that have nothing to do with their degrees. There is no degree to be President, a Senator, or a Congressman. Student loans should be forgiven if they cannot find a job in which they have a degree. This will force reform in the education system to only offer worthwhile degrees. All student loan payments should also be suspended for the balance of the year.

You should now look at imposing a 9-month moratorium on mortgage and business loan payments, and suspend all interest accrues during this period. There will be a risk of a flood of foreclosures unless we look realistically at the damage this has created. Negative interest rates only destroy the bond market as evidenced in Europe since 2014.

The economy must be supported, but not by handouts that the average person will not spend because they have no confidence in the future. We must look at the small businesses and the average person. They account for 70% of the economy, not big business.

All you need to look at is the Excess Reserves at the Federal Reserve. The banks will not lend money, for they have no confidence in the future. The banks will only park the money at the Fed. There is no amount of money you can throw at the bankers that will ever reverse the economic decline.

I am asking you to request Senate Hearings on this crisis. You will find there are plenty of researchers around the world who are seriously questioning what has been taking place and the advice you have received from the CDC who seek authoritarian powers.

Sincerely,

Martin Armstrong

CC/Tomas Philipson Chief Economic Advisor

CC/ Steven Mnuchin Secretary of the Treasury

CC/Jerome Powell Chairman Federal Reserve

CC/ Mitch McConnell Senator

CC/ Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise House of Representatives

May 29 2024

The Problem with K-Waves


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

K Wave MAA

All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.

If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973, which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note that 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.

KONDRATF

There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.

The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.

Consequently, when looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on the current system, he would focus on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.2% of the civil workforce, so we cannot follow K-Waves as the innovator intended.

May 29 2024

Commodities Trade Differently


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Wheat1220 1375

All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.

Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.

Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.

WheatWholesaleWWI

War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.

GOLD1560to1991

Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.

Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.

May 29 2024

Does an Increase in the Money Supply Lead to Inflation?


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Supply Demand

The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. This would have nothing to do with the quantity of money. So, obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices. Supply and demand.

Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.

When gold was used for money during the 19th century, it fell sharply in value with each new discovery from California, Australia, and Alaska. Inflation rose because of a dramatic increase in the money supply, which is exactly what took place in Europe when Spain brought back ship after ship of gold from the New World. The sudden dramatic rise in the supply of money unleashed inflation, and during both periods, money (gold) failed to provide a store of value.

Steady, slow growth in the supply of money does not lead to inflationary waves. We find that major waves of inflation are often tied to waves of speculation, which differ with each wave moving from real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, constantly rotating over decades within a domestic economy and then this movement of capital takes place internationally.

Inflation is not a single one-dimensional aspect. It moves up and down between the rise and fall in the demand for private assets vs. hoarding and uncertainty.