Posted originally on the CTH on November 25, 2023 | Sundance

Speaking to our CTH audience following direct conversations in the EU, I can assure you that privately it is well known that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is at a designed stalemate. Russia has solidified the western frontlines in Ukraine in exactly the position originally intended. Additionally, the fortifications are of such strategic scale no one in the Western alliance would dare to propose any effort for direct confrontation.

This is the reality on the ground in Ukraine, and if you look carefully at western reporting, you will see indications of the unspoken truth.

Bild reported that inside the German govt, there are leaks about conversations between U.S and German officials. “While outwardly expressing full support for Ukraine, behind closed doors in Berlin and Washington plans are being hatched to force Ukraine into talks with Russia to freeze the war on its current front lines, German newspaper BILD said in a report published on Nov. 24.” {link}

The Biden administration, specifically the Dept of State and CIA are now managing the narrative. The Eastern EU bloc (NATO realists) well understand the dynamic, although you will see opaque indications from traditional western media. However, if you look carefully, you will note one of the indications of this dynamic can be found in the unwillingness of the U.S. to provide logistical support for advanced M1A2 tanks to engage the Russian lines {link}.

[…]  Since receiving its first batch of Abrams in September, Ukraine has likely mixed them with the US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Cancian told BI.

Bradleys arrived sooner and have made their presence felt on the battlefield already.  For now, because of winter conditions, sending small Bradley-and-Abrams groups would be “inefficient” and “hard to support” logistically, he said.

Sumlenny cited the July offensives by the 47th Mechanized Brigade in the Zaporizhzhia region, where he said Ukrainian troops suffered heavy losses of Bradley armored vehicles against Russian defenses.  At the time, 34 of the 100 Bradley tanks the US had provided had been destroyed, according to Oryx, an open-source military research group. {link}

The Russian military have long ago positioned their strategic assets to take out any advanced armored columns.  All of the primary routes for U.S. provided Ukrainian tank deployment have been field targeted by proactive artillery placement.  Any advancing U.S/Ukraine armor would be walking directly into previously sighted positions.  It is a literal stalemate with air combat as the only solution to break the hardened fortifications.  The Russian air defenses are also positioned against this approach.

You cannot gather a comprehensive understanding of this dynamic without traveling to the epicenter of the discussion; so, that’s what I did.  From those discussions, and from discussions with actual Russians who know the strategic intent of the front line (Russian) fortifications, you can easily see how the Western alliance is having to face the reality of a stalemate yet needing to save face given the nature of the prior expenditures.

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not a matter of “if”, but “when”, and that means politics drives the decision making.

This is the reality of the situation.

The overwhelming majority of the Russian people stand in support of the efforts by Vladimir Putin.  They do not necessarily align with the man, but they do align with the intention of national defense against western/NATO encroachment.

Winning is not the western/NATO objective.  Saving face is the priority.

Everything else is World War Reddit!