Posted Originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The New York Federal Reserve reported that American households set a new record after plummeting into $17.69 trillion of debt, a 1.1% ($184 billion) increase from Q4 2023. Worse, the number of delinquencies is rising as households struggle to make ends meet amid the cost of living crisis. Inflation is not waning, taxes are rising, and America’s debt burden has become utterly unmanageable.
Mortgage balances rose by $190 billion and reached $12.44 trillion by March. People are paying far more in interest alone than they have in recent years. Those who bought in the hopes of refinancing are not in a good position. Auto loan debt rose by $9 billion, reaching $1.62 trillion.
Americans have been attempting to pay off their credit card balances, with overall credit card debt declining by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion. Yet, that was close to a record-high for credit card debt and we tend to see balances lowered after the holiday retail spending spree ends. Consumers do not want to pay those 20%+ interest rates on cards but many are forced to do so simply to put food on the table.
Delinquencies are rising – this is a major issue. It is difficult to crawl out of debt once someone is deep within the cycle. “In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, regional economic principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. “An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”
Credit card delinquencies have reached their highest levels since 2012 when America was recovering from the Great Recession. In fact, by the end of Q1 2024, around 3.2% of all outstanding debt was in delinquency. The New York Fed reported a rise in missed payments across all debts, including those 90 days past due.
No foreign nation is coming to offer America a bailout check. The Biden Administration has made it clear that American households are NOT Washington’s priority. We are to continue working and paying taxes in order to fund foreign wars and climate change packages. How else will we house those 7+ million illegal migrants and offer them free healthcare and shelter? How else will we pay off the student loans for millions? How else will we continue to grow the public sector and pay for countless new social programs? Americans are in serious debt, and Washington is all but ensuring this trend continues.
Posted originally on May 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Germany is considering forcing the youngest adults in their population to die in the name of a proxy war that in no way affected Germany, the German people or their way of life. Former President Donald Trump warned Germany that it had become too reliant on Russian energy and they mocked him. Sadly, German leadership had known all along that the ultimate goal was to use Ukraine as their gateway to attack Russia. As I’ve stated countless times, Merkel openly admitted that the Minsk Agreement was merely a ploy to weaken Russia’s defenses and buy time for Ukraine to build its military. Russia has not backed down and now the proxy war is becoming a global conflict.
Everyone criticized Trump for condemning his NATO allies in 2018. At the time, only five nations were meeting their 2% GDP spending requirement on NATO defense, with the US paying around 5%. Trump suggested that everyone contribute 4% to build a stronger alliance. He never wanted to back away from NATO to support Putin; rather, he wanted to back away from NATO because he felt the US had been taken advantage of by its European allies. Trump even threatened to remove the US from the NATO alliance because he simply did not see the benefits to domestic interests.
Trump called Ukraine the wall between Russia and Europe and stated that America had become the “sucker country” by shelling out millions to Ukraine when they received far less in return. He warned Europe that their reliance on Russian imported energy would spell disaster and went as far as declaring that Germany was “totally controlled by Russia.” Instead of looking for energy alternatives, Germany went through with the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and wasted billions as sanctions were implemented before the pipeline was fully functional.
This is yet another reason why they are fearful of a Trump re-election, for he has vowed to remove America from these senseless wars as part of his first plan of action. The globalists and neocons simply cannot allow that to happen.
Perhaps Germany believed they could rely on an alternative supplier for energy. Perhaps they believed Ukraine would have made at least a dent in Russia’s military power. Instead, they are prepared to send their own kids to die for this senseless war. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he is “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.”
Since the West has effectively eliminated genders or the need for a family structure, they plan to draft both men and women. Anyone fit to fight will be sent off to die. Pistorius believes Germany needs 200,000 troops to begin training immediately.
The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) are no longer opposing conscription and now support the “reintroduction of conscription in a step-by-step process,” much to the support of Pistorius. All those virtue signaling with Ukraine flags and cheering each aid package must now acknowledge that their own youth will be sent off to war, and many will never return home. They cheer the “good” guys winning these battles abroad in Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, but fail to understand that there is no “good” guy in the game of war. The people are merely chess pieces to be used as pawns by their governments.
The worst part about all of this is that Germany KNEW they were going to fight Russia. Ten years ago, Germany knew they were going to fight Russia. I discuss this in detail in my book, “The Plot to Seize Russia.” The fact of the matter is that the West could not simply enter Russia without giving the public a reason for warfare and creating countless fake flags, demonizing its opponent through propaganda, and attempting to weaken its military through a proxy war. We are now embarking on the beginning of the third world war thanks to the manipulation of the elites in power who have absolutely no regard for human life.
Washington’s reckless spending comes with a cost to US taxpayers. While the fed may simply roll over their debt and issue new debt to pay off the old, the American public is on the hook for immediate liquidity every single year via taxation. The misconception that Biden would only target the wealthy needs to be dispelled as a recent study reveals that 63% of new audits targeted Americans earning under $200,000.
Now, Biden initially claimed he would send his troop of IRS agents to target Americans earning double that amount. The billionaire class was not targeted, as 80% of all audits were on filers earning under $1 million. Yes, there are far more taxpayers in the middle and lower brackets. However, the IRS merely claimed they would prioritize hunting higher earners; they never explicitly said they wouldn’t come after ALL Americans.
The entire hunt for taxation has been a war on the middle class, who is unable to file massive write-offs and cannot afford to continue paying Uncle Sam on every incoming and outgoing transaction, plus savings, income, and everything else from birth to death. Washington effectively lowered our purchasing power by fueling inflation through absurd fiscal and social policies, and now they are asking people to give them even more of whatever money that remains. Washington continues to spend taxpayer funds on initiatives that the people have never once voted on, and ahead of election season, Biden is going on yet another spending spree with your money to buy off voters.
The highest earners know how to avoid taxes. Trump famously told Hillary during a debate prior to the 2016 US Presidential Election that he obviously used the loopholes in the tax system, as do all financially savvy businessmen. “Her donors took massive tax write offs… and other things that Hillary as a Senator allowed,” Trump stated during the debate. “So do Warren Buffett, so does George Soros, and so do other people Hillary is supported by,” he added. Note that the Democrats in control have never repealed restrictions on these tax loopholes that only help their wealthy donors.
Every new war, aid package, climate change package, social program, and migrant who crosses the border is now the responsibility of the US taxpayer. They wrongly believe that our money belongs to the federal government, with the state also taking out their share. Then, they create new taxes, such as targeting capital gains, to ensure that every American is stretched thin. Did anyone vote for this nonsense? We do not live in a Democracy and anyone who says otherwise is either misinformed or lying.
It will become far easier for governments to extort the people when they introduce CBDC in January 2025. Uncle Sam will think you have hidden any cash on hand from him, cash that belongs to him, once they force us to digitize our dollars. Inflation will continue to rise above GDP and we will enter a period of stagflation. This is why I have warned countless times that private and tangible assets are a safer bet compared to cash as we move into 2028.
Posted originally on May 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Eleven states may face capital gain taxes to comply with theBiden Administration’s 2025 budget, in which the government must hunt the people for taxes to pay for a fraction of their spending. The concept of capital gains was not within the original Constitution. The Founding Fathers established a completely new nation in an attempt to flee government tyranny, but yet again, Democracy has fallen into a Republic where the people have no say.
Capital gains were introduced in 1913, The 16th Amendment granted US Congress the power to levy income via taxation, which remained at around 7% until 1921. Congress quickly determined that they needed to extort citizens for more money and created two brackets. The 7% tax became a standard for income tax, but investors who held for over two years, an insignificant amount of time, were punished for saving and forced to pay 12.5% to Washington. Fast forward to 2025, and we are looking at the top marginal rate rising to up to 57.9%! The current capital extortion rate is around a quarter of one’s capital.
This idea of hunting down the rich is utter nonsense as it becomes an excuse to eliminate the middle class. The big money can take the risk, but the average investor cannot. This will deter small business investment and entrepreneurs who greatly contribute to innovation as they bring creativity and imagination to business.
Naturally, the 11 states are primarily blue. Californians really destroyed their state by voting for Gavin Newsom, and now they may face a top tax of 57.9% to cover the state’s excessive spending and growing deficit. New York and New Jersey, two states that should have stayed red, will face the second-highest capital gain taxation at a rate of 55.5%. These states already pay astronomical taxes on things such as property. Minnesota is looking at a tax of 55.45%, Oregon 54.5%, and Maine 51.75%, with the remaining states (Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Georgia, and Idaho) all facing capital gain extortion rates above 50%.
Why on Earth would anyone want to conduct business in these states? If Biden remains in power, it will be a wonder if major corporations continue to choose to do business in the United States at all. Businesses could go literally almost anywhere else and face lower rates of taxation. Additionally, the American consumer has been stretched so thin through dollar devaluation, inflation, and taxation that they are not spending the way they once did. Capitalism is under attack; success is a punishable offense.
America’s consumer economy will continue to decline while places like China see their middle class grow and the consumer economy rise. China is not creating worthless spending packages on climate change. Remember, they told us clear as day that the goal is to destroy America’s standing as the world’s leading superpower. Klaus Schwab has been aiming for 2030, but the computer has been honing in on 2032 before Schwab released plans for Agenda 2030. Unfortunately, this is all precisely on schedule as America enjoys its final time in the spotlight as the world’s financial capital.
Posted originally on May 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I do not agree with Donald Trump’s view of the Federal Reserve. I speak on behalf of sound economic policies that benefit the people. I do not blindly support a political candidate for the sake of being on the right side. Now, I criticized Trump during his presidency for constantly pressuring the central bank to lower interest rates. There are rumorsswirling that Trump, if elected, would set the price of interest rates himself without the advice of the Federal Reserve. While this may be an extreme side of the rumor, Trump and every other president would like more power over the Federal Reserve — BAD IDEA!
What we must keep in mind is that the Federal Reserve’s original design, which lasted for about one year, was brilliant. The classic banking model involved borrowing from depositors on a demand basis and lending long-term, making a profit on the spread in interest rates, such as for business loans and mortgages. This was relationship banking, not today’s transactional banking model.
This was fractional banking insofar as about 8% of the money needed to remain free to service demand requirements. The crisis comes during an economic contraction when people run to the bank for a loss of confidence and demand to withdraw their funds. This results in the value of cash rising in purchasing power compared to assets, so asset values collapse.
The idea of “elastic money” was to increase the supply of cash during such a crisis to meet the demand for withdrawals and that would offset the need to sell assets by calling in long-term debts. By increasing the money supply on a temporary basis, the Fed could offset the contraction in theory smoothing out the business cycle.
This was a brilliant scheme. However, it has been Congress, and not the Fed, that corrupted that mechanism. The banks technically owned the Fed as this was supposed to save the taxpayer money. The banks should contribute to their own bailout fund. Furthermore, the Fed’s design was also about buying in corporate paper when banks would not lend money. This was a mechanism used to offset rising unemployment if corporations could not fund their operations. They supplemented this by the management of regional interest rates to balance the domestic economy. Each branch of the Fed could raise or lower their local interest rate autonomously to attract capital when there was a local shortage or deflect capital when there was too much.
Congress began to manipulate the Federal Reserve for their own self-interest when World War I broke out on April 6, 1917. The alteration to the design of the Fed was to direct it to buy government bonds, not corporate. In this first step, they never reverse this decree after the war. They removed the brilliant design to stimulate the economy directly by purchasing corporate paper during a recession. In the last 2007-2009 crisis, the government wrote a check to TARP and hoped that the banks would lend money, but they did not. Removing this first pillar of the independent Fed distorted the entire system. It then made little sense for bankers to own shares in an entity that was no longer privately controlled.
Banks became traders during the 1929 Boom-Bust Cycle. Goldman Sachs became deeply involved in the bull market, establishing numerous trusts and mergers. Goldman Sachs expanded the leverage going right into the eye of the storm that was about to hit starting on September 3, 1929. The crash wipes our 70% of Goldman’s entire market.
The Glass-Steagall Act, also known as the Banking Act of 1933 (48 Stat. 162), was passed by Congress in 1933 and prohibited commercial banks from engaging in the investment business. Around 5,000 banks failed during the Great Depression largely because banks sold trusts and foreign sovereign government bonds to the public in small denominations. Bill Clinton later repealed Glass-Steagall and handed the power back over to the bankers. Disaster strikes every time the government tries to manipulate the free market.
People believe the Fed has the power to create money out of thin air, yet never explain why the Fed was given that power. You cannot have a fixed money supply as the population increases, then you end up with DEFLATION, which is the rise in the value of money. You can double the money supply, but if the people hoard it, as they tend to do during private waves when the public loses all trust in government, you will never create inflation. There was a huge contraction in the velocity of money during the Great Depression for this very reason.
The Biden Administration, as has the Trump Administration, has come after the Fed. Politicians merely want the economy to appear strong under their reign and fail to see the long-term impact of policies. Politicians have no knowledge of economics or the insight to run the Fed. Not to mention that law does not permit Washington to bark orders at the Fed, although Washington does oversee the Fed and can force the central bank to change its policies to align with government spending or repel debt buyers.
Trump is a borrower, not a lender. His bankruptcies were the result of the business cycle and he leverages himself to the hilt so when the recession comes, he gets in trouble and when it is booming he claims to be a fantastic investor. But he is no trader. He could have hedged the business cycle but did not.
Chairman Jerome Powell and Trump clashed repeatedly. Not so coincidentally, Powell and numerous Fed bank presidents have their terms expiring in 2028 – a key year, as indicated by our models. The Biden Administration has already driven the economy off a cliff. The central bank is merely trying to heal an already injured economy with a limited medical kit.
The Fed is INDEPENDENT and will not be bullied by Biden or Trump. The Fed understands that it has become the world’s central bank and its actions in raising rates have had a far greater impact externally particularly in emerging markets because so many other nations issue their debt in US dollars.
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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