Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies Re-Posted Feb 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I found it fascinating that you were able to calculate the funding of the war that Cleopatra provided Mark Antony. Have you done similar work to look at the funding of Julius Caesar to cross the Rubicon?
ANSWER: Yes. Where the Battle of Actium was a proxy war instigated by Cleopatra to try to seize control of Rome following the assassination of Julius Caesar. The best estimate I could make was that Mark Antony struck at least 25 million legionary denarii up to 35 million. Likewise, the coinage of Julius Caesar provides us with evidence of the cost of revolution as well, which is not recorded among contemporary historians. They were more interested in the reasons and biases of the time, not in the economics of the events.
Julius Caesar struck his Rubicon Coinage with the image of an elephant crushing a dragon-snake which represented the corrupt Senate. Some tried to claim that the snake represented Pompey the Great. Caesar had married Pompey to his daughter. He was greatly upset when the Egyptians beheaded Pompey and gave him his head as a gift. It is unlikely that the snake was ever a personal representation of Pompey. It was, in my mind, the Senate where the instigator of the civil war was none other than the vile and corrupt Cato. It was Cato who was the leader of the Opimates who controlled the Senate and tried to strip Caesar of all power which effectively forced him to cross the Rubicon.
It is most likely that this coinage commenced in Gaul, as part of Caesar’s preparations for invasion, in order to pay his troops. The number of dies suggests that this issue was also huge exceeding 25 million denarii. It most certainly was expanded when he acquired the reserves of the Roman Treasury that were left behind by the panic-stricken Senators, Optimates, when they fled Rome because the people never supported the likes of Cato or Cicero for that matter.
Elephant walking right, trampling on dragon-snake the head of which rears up before him, CAESAR in exergue. On the reverse, we see the emblems of the pontificate — simpulum, aspergillum, axe, and apex.
The coinage opens an economic window that allows us to understand the real motives and costs behind the events in history. This Rubicon Coinage reveals something far more politically significant than what the contemporary writers revealed. Caesar actually took personal responsibility for the production of this coinage which was obviously unconstitutional at the time. Typically, there was a treasurer also known as a moneyer who issued the coins. There is no moneyer on this coinage so Caesar is taking PERSONAL responsibility absent the possession of a qualifying magistracy appointed by the Senate.
This is why I call this the Rubicon Coinage for Caesar was declaring war on the Senate of Rome in this time of national crisis. The very creation of this coinage without a moneyer sanction by the Senate was a declaration of civil war. The symbolism of the obverse can hardly be anything other than the triumph of good over evil, whilst the reverse alludes to Caesar’s possession of the office of pontifex Maximus and he ended the corruption of bribing the high priests to extend the calendar to avoid elections. Hence, today we have the Julian calendar.
This issue of the Rubicon Coinage clearly funded the crossing of the Rubicon. How long this important type remained in issue after Cato and his corrupt Senators fled and the war with Pompey began is hard to say. It was most likely struck right up to the time of the final campaign leading to the Battle of Pharsalus which took place August 9th, 48 BC, and the defeat of Pompey. It was on January 10th, 49 BC when Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon.
It took just 19 months to bring down the Republic or 82.3 weeks from Caesar crossing the Rubicon to the defeat of Pompey at the Battle of Pharsalus in the Greek region of Thessaly. Thereafter, Caesar now consolidated his power He was elected as consul (normally a one-year term) in 48, 46, 45, and 44BC. Because of the political crisis and the corruption of the Senate which did not want to yield any power to the people, the new Senate thus waived the traditional requirement that a consul had to wait 10 years between terms. Caesar was also granted the title and office of Dictator which was a political position in times of crisis during the years 49, 48-47, and 46-44. Traditionally, the office of the Dictator was confined to just six months and he would be granted special powers to one man for a limited period to escape the bureaucracy to get things done. This was the means to deal with an emergency that threatened the state.
To meet the Republic’s urgent need for cash, Caesar resumed coinage of gold, which had not been struck by Rome since the dictatorship of Sulla (82-81 BCE). Most of Caesar’s aurei (about eight grams) are crude in design and workmanship in 46 BC. The moneyer was Aulus Hirtius who was a key supporter of Caesar. He served as one of Caesar’s legates in Gaul from about 54 BC and was an envoy to Pompey in 50 BC. He served Caesar loyally during the Civil War against Pompey and his successors in 48-45 BC. Hirtius was appointed as Caesar’s mintmaster in Rome in 46 BC, and it was at this time as a moneyer when he struck the first truly large issue of gold aurei from the spoils of Caesar’s campaigns. These aurei were poorly designed and executed with a veiled female head on the obverse, often appearing as a male, with priestly implements on the reverse. They were used to pay Caesar’s soldiers after the great triumphal parade.
Following Caesar’s assassination, Hirtius initially supported Marc Antony, but, after taking over as Consul in 43 BC, he raised an army against Antony at the instigation of Cicero and Octavian. His army defeated Antony at Mutina in April of 43 BC, but Hirtius was killed in the fighting. He left that political stage leaving Octavian and Antony masters of Rome. Hirtius was a loyal supporter of Caesar for he preserved and edited Caesar’s Commentaries on the Gallic and Civil Wars.
It was during the latter part of 45BC when this particular series of Aureii was produced for Caesar’s Spanish triumph in October of that year. Indeed, that the obverse type of the winged goddess Victory clearly refers to Caesar’s victory at Munda against Roman adversaries. Caesar was a Populares, a man of the people, who was not shy to express his increasing disdain for the factions of the aristocracy – the Optimates led by Cato. Caesar even celebrated a triumph in the capital, an unprecedented commemoration of victory over other Romans illustrating he regarded the Optimates as the enemy of the people. The presence within the issue of a gold half-aureus, or quinarius, makes it almost certain that this type was minted specially for the Spanish triumph since the denomination was typically associated with the distribution of largess at public celebrations.
Lucius Munatius Plancus, whose name appears on the reverse of this coin, was one of the Urban Prefects appointed by the dictator in 46 BC to administer the capital while he was on campaign. After this prominent issue of aurei was minted under his name, he rose to the position of governor of Transalpine Gaul in 44 BC where he founded the colony of Lugdunum, and later was appointed consul in 42 BC. Although he supported Marc Antony in the tumult which followed Caesar’s assassination, he eventually became an adviser to Octavian and according to Suetonius he dissuaded the princeps from assuming the name of Romulus as a ‘second founder of Rome’ (Suet. Aug. 7) and instead on 16 January 27 BC he formally proposed that the title ‘Augustus’, meaning ‘revered one’ be granted to the young princeps.
It was not until Caesar received the unprecedented title of “Dictator in Perpetuity” (DICT PERPETUO on the coinage) early in 44 BCE, conservative Romans were horrified. To them, this was akin to a monarchy. Here is a coin struck before his assassination with the title DICT PERPETUO issued by the moneyer Macer.
They assassinated Caesar on the Ides of March – the 15th. Therefore, coins with the portrait of Caesar with the legend “DICT PERPETUO” had to have been struck for only a few weeks. He was granted that title between January 26th, 44BC and February 15th, 44BC. It was on February 15th when Rome celebrated the festival of the Lupercal, which we call today Valentines’s Day. That was when Mark Antony twice presents Caesar with a royal diadem, urging him to take it and declare himself king. He refuses this offer and orders the crown to be placed in the Temple of Jupiter. It was most likely at this time when Caesar took the title “DICT PERPETUO” as the alternative. Curiously, it was 30/31 days later when he was assassinated – Pi?
The conspirators who again fled Rome, also began to issue coins pretending they are defending the Republic, championed by the fake news of Cicero,. This is even when Brutus issues silver and gold coinage bragging that he killed Caesar on the EID MAR – 15th of March.
When Caesar was assassinated, that is when we see the coinage change. Mark Antony starts to issue denarii with his picture on one side and Caesar’s on the other.
We also see Octavian issuing even gold aurei with his image on one side and Caesar on the other. They even issued coins announcing their Triumvirate against the corrupt Polulares. We even see Augustus, after he defeats Cleopatra and Mark Antony, issuing coinage showing the comet in the sky that people took as the omen that Caesar was now a god.
The coinage documents events written by contemporary writers at the time. This was the basis of Shakespeare’s play – Julius Caesar. The coinage has both confirmed history but also opened the door to establish answers to important economic trends. One with the coinage was it possible to answer the question of how fast did Rome really fall. By imputing this data, it became possible for the computer to even correctly forecast the fall of communism and the Berlin Wall in 1989. It is fascinating how it takes a finite amount of time to bring down a nation-state. When it starts to fall, it does so in a Waterfall type event. Rome fell in just 8.6 years.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong Economics 101 Re-Posted Feb 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Good afternoon – Will try to make this one quick. Know you are busy. Have you ever asked Socrates how to “defeat” its predictions? Or to reduce volatility/amplitude of projected events?
(Really, you should be recognized alongside Adam Smith, Ricardo, et al. for your discoveries and contributions.)
ANSWER: Because the entire world is connected, it does not appear that it is possible to prevent an event from unfolding. I have come to the conclusion that the best we can ever hope to accomplish is to reduce the magnitude of volatility.
The CFTC had even subpoenaed me demanding a list of all my clients worldwide. I defeated them in court. Their argument was that I had been manipulating the world economy and by turning over my client list, they would prove the magnitude of my influence. These people do not believe in forecasting for they only believe in manipulating society. Even Larry Summers claimed that if you create a model that actually worked, then that would dictate the future.
What these people miss is the fact that we are all connected globally. This is why government IS THE PROBLEM for they think that they can manipulate the future. But since we are all connected globally, it is impossible for one nation to alter the course of the global trend.
The world economy cannot be manipulated. It is far too complex to alter the course of the entire globe. It has been governments that have always created war. Look at every time the bankers thought that they had the guaranteed perfect trade, they have blown up and run to the government for bailouts.
Their allegation against me has never changed. If I say gold will double and it does, it is ONLY because I have too many people as followers rather than the fact that the computer has identified the trend.
So Socrates has confirmed on many occasions – the world economy must travel through these cycles. It is just how society functions.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 5, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
To get the weapons for massive destruction, Zelensky lied and promised that the weapons would not be used to target Moscow. Kiev’s forces will not hold back when it comes to hitting locations inside Russia, according to Fyodor Venislavsky, a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Committee. Speaking to Germany’s Bild tabloid on Saturday, he also described Moscow as a “legitimate military target.” The West is arming Ukraine for long-range missile attacks on Moscow. Putin and the hardliner will now have NO CHOICE and will be fully justified in nuking Ukraine to end the war the same way the United States nuked Japan.
The corruption in the Western media is astonishing. This is not being reported in the USA or Europe. It is being reported in the Middle East and in Russia. The international fake news organization, Trusted News Initiative (TNI), a consortium to control all the mainstream Western Media, is promoting World War III and we are to be told Russia is evil and we must go to war to destroy every individual Russian on the planet. There is no longer any independent journalism left. I had learned in grade school history class that the media created the Spanish American War. Pulitzer later felt guilty and donated his assets to Columbia University to hand out awards for journalists when Pulitzer was the father of yellow journalism and sheer corruption.
This is ABSOLUTELY what our world leaders want to take place. In their view, Gates has convinced them that there are just too damn many of us and they cannot pay for all the pensions. It’s time to thin the herd. They need war to reduce the population and eliminate the debt crisis.
For all of those who support Zelensky and hate all Russians or at least buy the bullshit propaganda about Putin, take a last look at your children and grandchildren You are condemning them to a future that may not even exist. Your stubbornness and refusal to look at the truth have emboldened our World leaders to steer us directly into world war III. I have had Ukrainian employees on both sides from Kiev (Its original Russian spelling) and Donetsk. I have had experience with Ukraine and they are DESPISED by all their neighbors for they are the remnant of Hitler’s Nazis. The wheel of fortune has completed its revolution. We are now supporting the Ukrainian Nazis Ethnic cleansing operation of the Donbas.
Now, former President of France Hollande has come out and confirmed that they negotiated in bad faith to create the Minsk Agreement ONLY to buy time for Ukraine to build its army to start World War III. Hollande has come out and also confirmed there is no interest in peace, this is to destroy Russia – plain and simple. This will end ONLY when Russia fails. There absolutely no reason for China or Russia to negotiate with Europe or the United States when they NEVER keep their word. Treaties mean absolutely nothing anymore and that necessitates World War III for there is no other solution.
I warned before, Zelensky was put in place to start World War III. I publish that Zelensky was intent on creating World War III in February 2022.
Kim Iversen Posted originally on Rumble on: Feb 3, 6:00 pm EST
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 4, 2023 | Sundance
Perhaps I am wrong, but the tone, disposition and presentation of this monologue by U.K. News pundit Neil Oliver, suggests to me that he is under pressure or threat due to his open commentary supporting a resistance uprising against the ruling class.
Within his weekly outline, there is a notable change in tone from Mr. Oliver as he outlines those voices that have been targeted by censorship, deplatforming and ongoing threats by western aligned media doing the bidding of their government overlords. Perhaps Mr. Oliver has finally found himself in the crosshairs of the system which will not permit public dissent. WATCH:
It was not part of their blood,
It came to them very late,
With long arrears to make good,
When the Saxon began to hate.
They were not easily moved,
They were icy — willing to wait
Till every count should be proved,
Ere the Saxon began to hate.
Their voices were even and low.
Their eyes were level and straight.
There was neither sign nor show
When the Saxon began to hate.
It was not preached to the crowd.
It was not taught by the state.
No man spoke it aloud
When the Saxon began to hate.
It was not suddently bred.
It will not swiftly abate.
Through the chilled years ahead,
When Time shall count from the date
That the Saxon began to hate.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Feb 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Sir,
Hello from Europe and a hopeful new year.
In WW2 in Athens, people were exchanging their apartments for a few liters of olive oil, hence real estate went really down.
The short question that you can answer even with a yes or no:
If this year’s aggressivity in terms of war actions will rise, what happens? Will real estate fall on the first stage and then – due to governmental actions – will rise again?
It is a bit confusing while I am trying to understand the mechanism… economy is not simple at all.
ANSWER: The real truth about real estate and war, declines the closer you get to the action. When we look at our models for European real estate, it clearly shows 2023 as a directional change and it appears to be heading into a Panic Cycle for 2027. Our leaders project like we should all go charge into Russia and defeat it in a matter of weeks or just days. Besides the fact that they never discuss that civilian deaths are twice as high as military, they also never talk about how the net worth of everyone in Europe will decline. Your house will decline in value for (1) people are not interested in buying a new home in times of uncertainty, and (2) interest rates will rise sharply due to inflation which is also part of the war cycle.
Lydia, in modern Turkey where coins were invented, shows the impact of war. It was Lydia v Person (Cyrus the Great) and we see the very first debasement in recorded history which accompanies war. The coinage was debased showing roughly a 25% devaluation in the purchasing power during the 6th century BC.
The Peloponnesian War in Greece saw the Athenian Owl reduced from silver to bronze and just silver plated. We find the same trend in Rome. There is NEVER any exception to this rule.
Beware, as the West insists upon expanding this war, you are sacrificing all your life savings in real estate for the political nonsense of our leaders in Europe as a whole. They are true war criminals. They could settle this in a day. Just honor the Minsk Agreement.
Armstrong economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
It turns out that North Korea-backed hackers stole a record $1.7bn of cryptocurrency in 2022, according to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis. It also appears that they had a hand in the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX where the auditors have reported that around $415m of cryptocurrency has been stolen by hackers. This is becoming a very interesting story with several facets from funding North Korea to laundering money for Zelensky to pay off the Democrats for the Midterm elections.
There is no way they will let this case go to trial. They will have to cut a deal or they are going to need to have some pumped-up loser kill him when on bail, or Judge Lewis Kaplan will have to revoke his bail and put him in MCC where they can kill him easily and blame another inmate and the guards fell asleep once again and, of course, the camera didn’t work.
At the end of the day, North Korea has been making a lot of money hacking into cryptocurrencies. Your crypto is going to a good cause – World War III to achieve Bill Gate’s dream – population reduction since the vaccines did not kill enough people off – yet.
Amstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The European Central Bank has just announced its monetary policy statement that the “will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target.”
Besides inflation, the other problem that governments are having is that there is a lack of a bid on the long end. That is why Yellen proposed swamping in long-term for the short-term. Furthermore, it is becoming obvious that Western governments are pushing for war with Russia and China. Institutions have been frantically calling us about restructuring their portfolios because war is coming, they see the debt expanding and rates rising further so why buy the long-term only to lose money?
Then we have Klaus Schwab and George Soros who are pushing for world war perhaps because they are so old and do not expect to be here anyway – so why not take a bunch of us with them? Like an Egyptian Pharoah who has all his servants killed upon his death to travel with him to the next world to serve him.
So we have inflation, war, and the ultimate end game of defaulting on the debt as they did after World War II and creating a new Bretton Woods with cryptocurrency so they can track everything we do. Welcome to the wonderland of Klaus Schwab where you own nothing, and will be a mindless ant in a clever Lenistic world of perfect order and absolute control.