Can We Really Last until 2032?

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re- Posted Mar 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Martin,

Since Trump was already not guilty of having the affair (to which Stormy Daniels admitted never took place), does that mean that the New York Court has indicted him on the charges of “being blackmailed”?


QUESTION #2: Bill Clinton committed perjury. That was legal grounds to indict him and remove him from office. Nobody wanted to indict Richard Nixon either. I can now see why Socrates is forecasting the collapse of the United States. I just realized that the Declaration of Independence was approved by the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776, announcing the separation of 13 North American British colonies from Great Britain. What I did not know was it was only a vote of 12 and New York abstained. It seems like New York is at it again. Do you really think we can last until 2032?

ANSWER: What Bragg has done is so undermining to the entire country and he has accepted money from a foreign power seeking to undermine the United States – George Soros. That is treason in my book. He is doing the bidding of a declared enemy against the United States and everything our way of life has stood for.

Yes, the Declaration was designed 1776.506. The United State will exist no more after 2034.50. I am very concerned that the 2024 Presidential election is not going to be fair. By the time we get to 2025.90, this does not look good in the least. It is highly unlikely that we are looking at this lasting as we have known it until 2032. It looks like everything unravels starting in 2027.

US Sent 365 Attack Craft to Confront Russia

Armstrong Economics Blog/Neocons Re-Posted Mar 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; It looks like NATO is preparing to invade Russia. What the hell is going on?


ANSWER: Ads I have explained, the Neocons are in full control of US foreign policy. They are intent on starting a war BEFORE 2024. They have 300,000 troops on the border of Russia in Poland. The US has 365 attack aircraft ready to roll. They have used Ukraine to weaken Russia’s conventional forces. They think they can take Russia in less than one week. They believe that Russia will not push the button. What if they are wrong? They believe in their own propaganda.

They have waged a brilliant campaign. They pretend their warmongering is being patriotic. They do not care about America, its people, or anything honorable. They used Ukraine as cannon fodder and they will do the same with Americans. They are INTERNATIONALISTS and in their view, it is to dominate the world. Who cares about Americans? There are too many of us anyhow. Thin the herd is their view.

Welcome to World War III

The War in Ukraine – The Real Version

Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Mar 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Here is a CNN Report on the Ukrainian Civil War that the US instructed to launch in 2014 by the interim government the West installed with the Revolution. For all the Ukrainian Nazis and the brainwashed people who believe whatever the government tells them, take off your stupid mask, open your eyes, and accept some truth for once.

Here is the leader of the American Neocons who has created ENDLESS wars and has no remorse for all the people they have killed and the carnage they have unleashed upon the world. Even Ron Paul understands the Neocons. The so-called Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), run by Ukraine’s security forces began in 2014 and justified slaughtering civilians in the Donbas by calling all the people there terrorists who have sought a separatist solution because of the Neo-Nazis of Ukraine have reinstituted their ethnic cleansing of all Russians living in the Donbas for hundreds of years.

McCain was openly meeting with the Neo_nazis and encouraging them that the US will support them to wage war on Russia. As soon as Trump was elected in November 2016, McCain ran to Ukraine and promised full support to wage war against the Russians in the Donbas. In December 2016 he was openly meeting with the Neo-Nazis.

Trump was convinced to send lethal weapons to Ukraine. But when he saw what the Ukrainians were doing to civilians, he began to fire all the Neocons that had been stuffed into his cabinet. The press began to run stories that nobody wanted to work for Trump because he was a horrible person. That was the start of the Neocon propaganda against Trump.

I have had employees both from Donestk and Kiev. I am well aware of the hatred that is so deeply rooted it will NEVER be subdued. The Neocons instructed Kiev to immediately attack the Donbas in 2014 to force Russia to come to their aid. This has been an intended war against Russia from the outset. That is why Merkel openly said that they never negotiated with Russia in good faith, it was all a stall tactic to enable Ukraine to raise the largest army in Europe to wage war against Russia.

Those who support Biden and this war, I wish you were on the front line when Americans are drafted. And as for every American company that is joining this war for money, the blood on your hand will not wash off as Pontius Pilate tried. The blood on your hands will stay with you right until your deathbed as your loathful life passes by you in a flash of light.

As soon as Biden took office, the Neocons seize full control. They are back and are prepared to sacrifice every Ukrainian for their own hatred of Russians just as  Lindsey Graham champions. And when the last Ukrainian falls, they are preparing to draft not just American and European young men, but women as well.

Neocons are NOT American, they are Internationalists with a global agenda to also rule the world. They are exploiting the United States as they have always done just as they are doing to Ukraine. They slaughter countless people for their own policy of ethnic cleansing and use the press to pretend this is American policy and then anyone who objects is not a patriot or some Putin supporter. You must be ruthless and want every Russian to be slaughtered or you are not a patriot in their propaganda. They do not care about America, our economic future, and certainly not about you or your family. They are obsessed and consumed by hatred. According to Washington, D.C., clinical psychologist Dana Harron, the things people hate about others are the things that they fear within themselves. They accuse Putin of wanting to resurrect the old USSR, which he has never taken one step in doing since 1999, yet the Neocons have pushed NATO right up to its borders and armed that front with nuclear weapons.

This old film from 1947 serves as a warning — do not allow the government to divide us.

Biden Mocks School Shooting Victims

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Mar 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The POTUS lives in a reality that is far different from ours. His brain has deteriorated to the point that all of his speaking engagements end in utter disaster. Biden delivered the most cold-hearted speech in Nashville following a school shooting that killed six people, including three children. Again, this man received more votes than any president in US history.

Joe Biden said he showed up in Nashville for ice cream–not to comfort the people. The audience roared with laughter as Joe Biden laughed in the faces of fearful parents. “My name is Joe Biden. I’m Dr. Jill Biden’s husband. I eat Jeni’s ice cream — chocolate chip. I came down because I heard there was chocolate chip ice cream,” Biden said with a smile. “By the way, I have a whole refrigerator full upstairs. You think I’m kidding? I’m not,” Biden told the joyful crowd.

Then Biden used the opportunity to condemn Republicans and gun control. Did Joe Biden laugh off the disgustingly cruel murders because they do not coincide with the woke agenda? The disaster occurred at a private Christian school, and Christians are not a protected class in our society.

Strike two against the woke agenda – the shooter identified as transexual. While school shootings are revoltingly common in the US, the murderer is always male. In fact, 98% of mass shootings in general are committed by men. “However, if we look specifically at K-12 school shooting cases in our database, the perpetrators were 100% male. Most were current or former students of the schools they targeted,” the Violence Project said in a statement. Now politicians are fighting on whether the problem is mental health or gun control. “How much hormones like testosterone and medications for mental illness was the transgender Nashville school shooter taking? Everyone can stop blaming guns now.” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on Twitter.

Three children never came home from school that day. This tragedy goes far beyond gun control; politicians should not use a disaster to promote an agenda. As far as Biden, the video of his speech is truly unbelievable. All those people laughing in the audience are the lowest level of mindless sheep our nation has to offer.

What will Become Money Post-2032?

Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies Re-P osted Mar 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Martin,
Been reading your writings with keen interest for over 15 years now since while you were incarcerated.
My question is: The way you paint a picture of the past economies going back hundreds and thousands of years through the discovery of coinage hoards is brilliant. How will a future “Martin Armstrong” from say 500 to 1,000 years from now be able to utilize that methodology of discovering the history of this era when we’re largely a computer digital transaction society? (Especially if government-planned digital currency takes over?)
Thanks. Jerry S.

ANSWER: I know the crypto-people do not like my view that digital currency is entirely dependent upon the power grid and once money is in any official exchange, it will be subject to government regulation. Just look at Tik Tok. The government wants to ban it because they CANNOT get into the data and who is saying what. It has nothing to do with China. They are not interested if you paid the babysitter next door, but Congress is. They have backdoors into everything – not Tik Tok. That has become the hub for many threats to their form of society called the dreaded CONSERVATIVES.

Reading historical accounts of things would never provide the real picture. The coinage has been the breadcrumbs that lead to the truth. I can see the real level of debasement, and when put together with historical accounts, we can get a real picture of history. We must also respect that some periods are black holes and the coinage is what turns on the light.

For example, it is the coinage that enables us to confirm much of history and I believe we will see the future follow the past. The wife of Augustus, Livia, the first empress of Rome, was a very powerful woman. The real power behind the thrown. I suggest watching the series – Domina. It is far better than any fictional story. It was his mother, Livia, who pushed him to be Emperor.

Livia was renowned for her intelligence but was also one of the most beautiful women in Rome. Tiberius was not her favorite – that was his brother Drusus. Tiberius had a son with his first wife Vipsania who was born in 14BC. Livia compelled Tiberius to marry Augustus’ daughter Julia as a way to the throne. Augustus was not fond of Tiberius for he was simply unsocial. His marriage to Julia was like a mixture of oil and water. She sought sexual parties and ignored Tiberius and was finally exiled by her father.

Frome the coinage, we can confirm that Tiberius responded to a major earthquake that destroyed much of Asia, modern-day Turkey. Tiberius issued coins for the aid of Asia. We also know that he waived all taxes for 5 years and donated 10 million sesterces for relief. What politicians would ever system taxes as a tool of relief today?

Augustus’ heir was to be Germanicus (15BC-19AD) who was the son of Nero Claudius Drusus, the younger brother of Tiberius, and Antonia, who was the daughter of Mark Antony and Augustus’ sister Octavia. He was married to Agrippina, Sr, who was the daughter of Agrippa and Augustus’ daughter Julia. Agrippina seems to have been the independent-minded woman who blamed Livia for the death of her husband.

Agrippina, Sr. was such a disruption politically that Tiberius was compelled to banish her like her mother in 29AD where she eventually died of starvation in 33AD. Her son, Caligula, seems to have inherited her insanity, and her daughter Agrippina, Jr, as well. She is actually the first woman on Roman coinage displaying her name. Livia’s portrait would be used but always styled as some goddess.

Of course, her son Caligula has warranted films exclusively devoted to his. He is famous for insulting the Senators by making his horse a senator. Caligula was born in 12 AD. He was named as Tiberius’ heir in 37AD and it has been long suspected that Caligula smothered Tiberius to death to take the throne. He was notorious for his depravity and cruelty. He was assassinated by the Praetorian Guard on January 24th, 41AD.

The Praetorian Guard needed an emperor or there was no point in them being the Praetorian Guard. They turned to Claudius and made him emperor. You can see from his coinage the image of the Praetorian Guard camp on the reverse announcing that he was made emperor by the Praetorians.

There is a great series of these events done years ago by the BBC. It was based on the book I Claudius and the series bares the same name – I. Cludius. That too is a worthwhile series that was produced decades ago.

In fact, Agrippina Jr, sister of Caligula, was not only the mother of Nero who ordered her killed for her dominance, but she married he uncle Claudius to secure the throne for Nero. Once again, we find her portrait on coins alongside her son, Nero, which also reflected her dominance and effective rule of the empire. Some have likened her to Hillary Clinton for her cunning and effective rule behind the curtain.

To ensure Nero would become Claudius’ heir, she poisoned Claudius’ son – Britanicus. It shows what a bad apple can do to the whole lot. Many have pointed to the fact that it was the dominance and cunning of the women that brought down the Julio-Claudian Dynasty.

Nevertheless, the coinage not merely confirms history, but also provides a window through time for us to see how human nature never changes, and as such, the future becomes merely a repetition of human contrivances.

To answer the question if future historians will be able to do what I have done if the currency is eliminated and we have just electronic digital currency, I believe the answer lies in the past. We can see something rather astonishing right here during the reign of Tiberius (14-37AD).

Augustus/Octavian (heir to Julius Caesar) became the first emperor of Rome following the defeat of Cleopatra and Mark Antony in 30 BC. He was granted the title Augustus in 27BC by the Senate for saving Rome from the proxy war of Cleopatra who used Mark Antony to try to conquer Rome. However, because he was the first emperor, it appears that he blanked the empire with coinage to justify his position as emperor, not king, which was really the same thing. There are over 500 different silver denarii types. I have never even heard of a collector assembling each type.

Against that backdrop, being indeed a reluctant emperor and forced into an unhappy marriage, it is understandable that being an unsocial workaholic, the circumstances most likely drove Tiberius deeper into seclusion. He rarely left Rome. In fact, he would not even attend the gladiator games. This is the extent of his coinage – two types. That’s it! Instead of the proliferation of coinage under Augustus, spending was curtailed and we can determine that from the coinage, not contemporary accounts. This led to a SHORTAGE of money, and in such a recession. That became the Financial Panic in 33AD.

Because of the shortage of money, this is where we find the first time that the private sector began to issue its own coinage. Some have claimed they were some sort of token. But they are confined to this period of Tiberius where there was a Financial Panic and a shortage of coinage compared to the reign of Augustus.

During the Great Depression, because there too the austerity measures of the government created a shortage of currency. Thus, over 200 cities in the United States began to issue their own currency for local use.

Likewise, during the Civil War, there was also a shortage of money There is a whole array of private coinage during that event. Then there was the hard time that followed the Panic of 1837, Again we have private coinage surfacing. The same again took place with the Panic of 1873.

In Japan, because of the corruption of the government always devaluing the currency of the previous emperor, the Japanese finally just stopped accepting the coinage of their own government. The economy reverted to one of barter and they used the coinage of China. Japan lost the authority to even issue coinage for 600 years until the Meiji Era.

Cryptocurrency will fade with the collapse of governments. It will be too dependent on a unified power grid. If history is any guide, we will return to a barter system combined with perhaps old identifiable coinage that the average person will recognize. That is one reason why I do not recommend bars of silver or gold, but the old coinage. Bags of pre-1965 silver coins in the US or similar in Europe and Canada where the average person can look at a date and accept it whereas they cannot tell the difference between a var of silver or nickel.

Do not make the mistake of judging others by yourself. You may know was a bar of silver is, but that will not help you if the other person does not. There are videos on YouTube where people are offered a silver bar or a chocolate bar and they take the chocolate. Not everyone knows what you may know. Keep that in mind.

So at the end of the day, we will have to rebuild society from the ground up post-2032. A currency need not be backed by anything. Its value is ALWAYS based upon a belief system. The same is true with gold and silver. They had no utility value, only as jewelry from the outset. They were valued because at first, the kings reserved gold only for their adornment.

Orichalcum, brass, is the legendary metal mentioned in the story of Atlantis in the Critias of Plato. In fact, orichalcum was considered second only to gold in value and it held a greater value than even silver. It was said to have been mined in many parts of Atlantis in ancient times. These ingots of orichalcum were discovered in a shipwreck that had sunk 2,600 years ago, off the coast of Gela in southern Sicily. The ingots are an alloy consisting of 75–80% copper, 15–20% zinc, and smaller percentages of nickel, lead, and iron. In other words, they are brass. Because the color is closer to gold, this was highly prized.

The Greeks rarely used orichalcum for coinage in the Hellenistic world. It was used experimentally by Romans under the reigns of Octavian and Mark Antony. Where we begin to see orichalcum used in the coinage consistently is dated to the monetary reform of Augustus (23 BC). It was then that he introduced sestertii and dupondii were struck in orichalcum (Cu-Zn alloy) rather than silver and bronze.  The sestertius of the Republican era was a tiny silver coin of about 0.7 grams. Later, the monetary reform Nero made during 63–64 AD,  introduced the use of orichalcum to the denomination of the assemis, and quadrantes.

Following the Civil War with the death of Nero, orichalcum was replaced in the coinage with bronze. It is highly likely that someone figured out how to make orichalcum and its premium just collapsed. Counterfeiters had long figured out how to mix wrap a coin in silver and strike it to make it appear it was silver, but also to use chemicals to cause the silver to appear on the surface. We cannot rule out that someone had figured out how to make brass and thus it lost its premium.

The value of any currency is entirely based on belief. Once the ancients figured out that orichalcum was just an alloy and could be made, then it no longer seems as more valuable than silver. Even cryptocurrency is worthless. Its entire valuation is simply based that others believe it has some value. Money at its most basic core during a financial crisis is predicated upon its utility value. Hence, in Japan, bags of rice became money. It is unlikely that even cryptocurrency will survive the transition post-2032. Precious metals ONLY in the form of some recognizable coin will be accepted like the Japanese accepted Chinese coins. Barter will return as it always has. That will most likely be in the form of food.

Paris on Verge of Revolution?

Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Mar 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We have been getting readings in France keeping us up to date in this huge Pension Protest and many see this as rising tension toward Revolution. While politicians dump money into Ukraine with no accountability whatsoever, they turn on their own cities and tighten the economic screws.

There is no question that Socrates has correctly forecast the rise in civil unrest. But this is just the first quarter. Things are going to get much worse. From April on, we are looking at rising volatility in many areas. The mega protest in Paris over the Pension Crisis has not even touched on the war that these people are planning as a distraction from the fiscal mismanagement.

The government will always paint protesters are violent. In the USA, the Democrats called the January 6th protest an “insurrection” when there were no guns. The prosecutors who are always against the people, want to imprison anyone in the building for 5 years just for being there. In Canada, the government called the truckers terrorists, and again they had no weapons. In Paris the government instructed the police that they ate there “to destroy, to injure and to kill” to make sure the police do not switch sides. When the police join the protester, as in Ukraine in 2014, the government falls. The same took place in Moscow during the coup and the military refused to shoot the people so the coup collapsed.

There is always a pattern where the government at the end of the day will always view the people as the ultimate enemy. As long as we remain quiet, pay our taxes, and go off to war when they order us to die on foreign soil, then they are happy. When people rise up, then there is a problem. Revolution is ONLY successful when the police/military support the people.

Leaked Texts – Liberal Govt Plotted to De-Bank Freedom Convoy Protestors Before Invoking Emergencies Act

Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Mar 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Tyrant Justin Trudeau gave the green light to the Western world to begin de-banking citizens based on political beliefs. New text messages emerged that show the Liberal government pressured banks to freeze accounts long before the Emergencies Act (EA) was invoked amid the Freedom Convoy (also known as the Trucker Convoy).

Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act on February 14, 2022, but plans to punish protestors began weeks prior. Senior advisers at the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) Ben Chin and Tyler Meredith began discussing plans to de-bank protestors on February 7. “But we are talking with banks and insurance companies about how they can act on their own and what helpful signals we might be able to send,” one text message stated.

The Liberals wanted to “keep the heat off the bank branches,” as many were reluctant to freeze accounts. The government was also concerned that people would retaliate directly against the banks. So how could they “safely” lock out hundreds of people from the economy? “One thing I should add- from what we hear most of the big banks are actually doing a lot of work already within the terms and conditions of existing account agreements to manage flow of funds if they suspect someone or something. That’s an angle we are looking at,” another text exchange stated. They looked at every angle possible to justify their actions.

The day that the Emergencies Act was invoked, Canadian Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland happily froze C$8 million from 267 people, as well as 170 crypto wallets. She was able to act quickly because the plan was already in place. Freeland demanded an “economic incentive” to end the peaceful protests. Freeland also ordered the blacklisting of over 200 trucking companies. Not only did she blacklist companies, but she shared their personal data with foreign entities:

“According to the Inquiry, the RCMP shared this blacklist with Canadian contacts at foreign banks, including the Bank of China, BNP Paribas of France, State Bank of India, Habib Bank of Pakistan, Citibank of New York, ICICI Bank Limited of India, Hana Financial Group of South Korea, Mizuho Financial Group of Japan and Wells Fargo & Company of San Francisco.”

Yes, she even shared information with China. This was the first time in Canadian history that the EA was invoked to freeze bank accounts. Since his government experienced zero backlash as there are no checks and balances, other governments have since begun freezing the bank accounts of protestors, journalists, average citizens, and anyone who dares to disagree with Big Brother. This is yet another reason why people do not trust the government or banks. Our computer model indicates that the volatility in the banking sector is far from over.

Pfizer and EU Corruption Out of Control

Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re- Posted Mar 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The confidence in the entire EU government is rapidly collapsing. They desperately need a war with Russia to retain power. Here is a video of the speech on the floor of Parliament by the Croatian MEP Mislav Kolakušić with respect to the EU contract with Pfizer. It was done in secret and nobody was allowed to even vote on this issue – so much for our FAKE NEWS which sois hand-in-hand with our FAKE DEMOCRACY. They then ordered that we could even leave out home or work without a Pfizer vaccine. There will be a special place reserved in hell for both Urlsula von der Leyen and Albert Bourla – who is not even a doctor. He is only a vegetarian. I would let him even pet my dog.

Back in 2021, I warned that Socrates was suggesting that Pfizer would peak out and begin a serious decline. Many people wrote in and said I would be wrong. How can that happen when they bought every government on the planet? Even in August 2021, I warned, despite the criticism, that Pfizer would peak out and it did not look like the stock would continue a rally.

I’m sorry, but Socrates does not listen to MSNBC the most extreme left-wing propaganda machine destined to ruin every life in America if not the planet by supporting vaccines from Pfizer and of course war against everyone a Neocon can think of. Socrates was right. The glory days for Pfizer are over. I think whatever vaccines are left over, Pfizer should refund the money to all the taxpayers of the world and close the doors. It has become a corrupt organization and I for one would NEVER now agree to ANY vaccine produced by this evil empire. Senior management belongs in prison for life. Bankers may hurt people financially, but Pfizer, in my opinion, killed people to make money and physiologically damaged people forever. I still see some people wearing a mask in a car and driving by themselves.

TikTok Blamed for Ukraine Ammunition Shortage

Posted originally on the conservative tree house March 27, 2023 | Sundance

Put this in the ‘how far can we stretch a narrative’ file.

According to multiple sources, Ukraine is running out of ammunition in the war against Russia.  However, according to Newsweek who is pushing the message from the Nordic Ammunition Supply Company, TikTok cat videos are to blame.   Yes, you read that correctly…

(Newsweek) – One of Europe’s largest ammunition manufacturers has said it’s unable to expand to meet new quotas and respond to Ukraine’s increased demand because a nearby data center is using up all the electricity in the central Norway region to store TikTok videos.

The Norwegian group Nordic Ammunition Company, better known as Nammo, told the U.K. newspaper Financial Times that there’s no surplus of energy for its Raufoss plant, where the new factory was planned.

The electricity of the region is being used up by a data center whose bigger client is TikTok. The embattled social-media platform has come under increased scrutiny in the U.S. for its ties with China. “We are concerned because we see our future growth is challenged by the storage of cat videos,” Nammo chief executive Morten Brandtzæg told the newspaper.

Local energy provider Elvia confirmed to the Financial Times that the network has no electricity to spare, and that the energy is allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. Should Nammo require more energy, it will take time to make this available to the ammunition manufacturer. (read more)

Europeans must immediately stop watching cat videos, in order to protect Ukraine.

ZeroHedge has more information about the ammunition shortage:

[…] The very fact that Ukraine is out of ammunition proves that the West’s defeat in its self-declared “race of logistics” with Russia might already be a fait accompli by this point since it’s clear that Kiev can’t keep pace with its opponent despite being backed by all of NATO’s military-industrial capacity. Zelensky almost certainly didn’t realize that his candid admission essentially amounted to this, but it’s presently unclear whether the MSM will inform their audience about this or not.

On the one hand, doing so could contribute to his forthcoming begging campaign, but it could also backfire if taxpayers start asking whether it’s worth ponying up even more money if Ukraine already ran out of ammo despite the over $100 billion in aid that it’s received thus far. After all, if that astronomical sum wasn’t enough to keep their guns firing, then there’s no telling how much will be needed for Kiev to reconquer more of its lost territory like it intends to do. (more)

Are Markets Irrational or Analysts?

Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts Re-Posted Mar 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Who is being irrational? The markets or the analysts?


ANSWER: That’s simple. It is the analysts. The markets are ALWAYS correct. When you have bank failures unfolding, people will withdraw money out of caution. It is the very same reason there are ancient hoards of coins. You find coins in times of economic stress and uncertainty. This is a purely RATIONAL human response to uncertainty. It consistent for thousands of years. For any analyst to claim the markets are acting “irrationally” only proves they should look for another profession.

Sir Thomas Gresham began his career in 1543 working at Mercers’ Company at the age of 24 years old. He left England for Antwerp/Amsterdam which was the financial center of the day much like Wall Street. That was where he became a merchant businessman which was where banking existed in those days. He became an agent for King Henry VIII in the Antwerp/Amsterdam market. He became a trader and in so doing, he began to observe how capital moved.

The interesting aspect was that he was called in as a sort of crisis manager as I have been during financial upheavals. In 1551, Sir William Dansell, who was King’s Merchant there in the markets, ended up putting the English Government into a financial crisis thanks to his mismanagement.  The English turned to Gresham for advice since he became quite astute at trading. They adopted his proposals. It was then that Gresham proposed a very ingenious tact. He advocated a FOREX intervention to push the pound higher on the Antwerp change. His intervention proved so successful that in just a few years King Edward VI had discharged almost all of his debts. By pushing the pound higher, he was able to repay the previous debts by devaluing them.

Therefore, the English Crown sought Gresham’s advice in all their finances until Mary came to the throne in 1553. Gresham was instantly pushed aside for  Alderman William Dauntsey, who lacked trading experience and quickly sent the Crown into financial stress. Gresham was called back to deal with the mess once again.

Under Queen Elizabeth’s reign (1558–1603), he continued as a financial agent of the Crown and also became the Ambassador Plenipotentiary to the Governor of the Netherlands. This was the period of civil unrest in Antwerp which compelled him to return to England in 1567. This is also when the English had the founding of the Royal Exchange to compete with the Netherlands. It was Gresham who made the proposal to build, at his own expense, a bourse or exchange. This demonstrated that Gresham was a trader and understood how capital flowed.
Apart from some small sums to various charities, Gresham bequeathed the bulk of his property (consisting of estates in London and around England giving an income of more than 2,300 pounds a year) to his widow and her heirs, with the stipulation that after her death his own house in Bishopsgate Street and the rents from the Royal Exchange should be vested in the Corporation of London and the Mercers Company, for the purpose of instituting a college in which seven professors should read lectures, one each day of the week, in astronomy, geometry, physic, law, divinity, rhetoric and music.[1] Thus, Gresham College, the first institution of higher learning in London, came to be established in 1597.

Gresham’s Law (stated simply as: “Bad money drives out good“). He concluded this from his observations that foreign exchange back then was based on the metal content and weight of the coinage. Therefore, as debasement took place, people would hoard the old coinage of higher quality and spend the debased.  Thus, the bad money drove out the good and actually shrunk the money supply in circulation.

He urged Queen Elizabeth to restore the debased currency of England. In so doing, you got to repay old debts with debased currency. Governments to this day practice that same trick. Repaying a 30-year bond today the bondholder cannot buy what the money was once worth 30 years ago. The interest does not really compensate for the loss of purchasing power over long periods of time.