My Letter to President Trump – March 2020 – Dawn of COVID Lockdowns


Posted originally on May 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

ArmstrongEconomicsLogo.AEGlobalLogo

President Donald Trump                                                                                     March 19, 2020

White House

1600 Pennsylvania Ave, NW

Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President,

As an economist with a proven track record, I have been called in by former presidents, world leaders, and central banks around the world during crises since 1985. I was summoned for help during the 1987 Crash. I was perhaps the first American analyst to be invited by the central bank of China and flew to Beijing during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. I have testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. Major political leaders have been guest speakers at our World Economic Conferences, not merely Margaret Thatcher, but your friend Nigel Farage spoke at our Rome Conference in May 2019.

All of the economic stimulus packages will not save the day as long as the people have lost confidence in the future. There must be serious out-of-box solutions, for the catastrophic economic damage the health organizations and media have created is unimaginable.

It is true that if we all stay home every day and just watch TV we can beat the common cold. The damage these people have done when there are less than 200 deaths compared to over 1 million people who die in car accidents each year makes one wonder why we do not prohibit cars. Nearly 500,000 die of smoking each year, why do we allow tobacco companies to continue operating? There are costs that must be weighed and the losses these people have created by yelling fire in a theater is staggering.

The damage that has been done by the CDC in sacrificing the entire economy for a virus, which is minimal compared to the flu, and has already peaked in China and South Korea, amounts to yelling fire in a crowded theater. They have undermined the world economy and the amount of people who have lost jobs worldwide is staggering.

Students and young voters work in restaurants as servers. They have lost their jobs by closing restaurants unnecessarily. They are excluded from the bankruptcy laws and are saddled with worthless degrees that do not guarantee jobs. Most students end up in professions that have nothing to do with their degrees. There is no degree to be President, a Senator, or a Congressman. Student loans should be forgiven if they cannot find a job in which they have a degree. This will force reform in the education system to only offer worthwhile degrees. All student loan payments should also be suspended for the balance of the year.

You should now look at imposing a 9-month moratorium on mortgage and business loan payments, and suspend all interest accrues during this period. There will be a risk of a flood of foreclosures unless we look realistically at the damage this has created. Negative interest rates only destroy the bond market as evidenced in Europe since 2014.

The economy must be supported, but not by handouts that the average person will not spend because they have no confidence in the future. We must look at the small businesses and the average person. They account for 70% of the economy, not big business.

All you need to look at is the Excess Reserves at the Federal Reserve. The banks will not lend money, for they have no confidence in the future. The banks will only park the money at the Fed. There is no amount of money you can throw at the bankers that will ever reverse the economic decline.

I am asking you to request Senate Hearings on this crisis. You will find there are plenty of researchers around the world who are seriously questioning what has been taking place and the advice you have received from the CDC who seek authoritarian powers.

Sincerely,

Martin Armstrong

CC/Tomas Philipson Chief Economic Advisor

CC/ Steven Mnuchin Secretary of the Treasury

CC/Jerome Powell Chairman Federal Reserve

CC/ Mitch McConnell Senator

CC/ Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise House of Representatives

The Problem with K-Waves


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

K Wave MAA

All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.

If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973, which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note that 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.

KONDRATF

There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.

The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.

Consequently, when looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on the current system, he would focus on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.2% of the civil workforce, so we cannot follow K-Waves as the innovator intended.

Commodities Trade Differently


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Wheat1220 1375

All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.

Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.

Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.

WheatWholesaleWWI

War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.

GOLD1560to1991

Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.

Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.

Does an Increase in the Money Supply Lead to Inflation?


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Supply Demand

The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. This would have nothing to do with the quantity of money. So, obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices. Supply and demand.

Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.

When gold was used for money during the 19th century, it fell sharply in value with each new discovery from California, Australia, and Alaska. Inflation rose because of a dramatic increase in the money supply, which is exactly what took place in Europe when Spain brought back ship after ship of gold from the New World. The sudden dramatic rise in the supply of money unleashed inflation, and during both periods, money (gold) failed to provide a store of value.

Steady, slow growth in the supply of money does not lead to inflationary waves. We find that major waves of inflation are often tied to waves of speculation, which differ with each wave moving from real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, constantly rotating over decades within a domestic economy and then this movement of capital takes place internationally.

Inflation is not a single one-dimensional aspect. It moves up and down between the rise and fall in the demand for private assets vs. hoarding and uncertainty.

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They Are Coming for Alito and It Has Nothing to Do With Upside Down Flags


Posted originally on the CTH on May 19, 2024 | Sundance 

You are not going to like this, and most will say I’m nuts. However, with more than a dozen years of crazy “right-wing conspiracy theories” proven out in real time, I hope the long-time readers will adjust their perspectives and affairs accordingly.

The IC is coming after Judge Sam Alito, but not because of his non pretending, general J6 disdain, solid grasp on the fraud that is Joe Biden, or his wife having an upside-down flag (although the non-pretending aspect is very troubling for them). No, the IC has been coming for Justice Alito since Chief Justice John Robert’s internal court counselor’s lead office staff, Sheldon Snook, the husband of Mary McCord, leaked the Alito decision [Dobbs Decision] overturning Roe and sending the abortion issue back to the states.

The Sheldon Snook leak, hidden by Justice Roberts due to the origination from his office, is the structural compromise within the court that gives the IC leverage over the third branch of government.  In a strange situation, Judge Alito appears to be holding the line and forcing the IC to come out of the shadows after him.  My hunch is he’s just had enough.

There was a recent decision by the Supreme Court to validate the funding mechanism for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a racketeering operation of government created by Elizabeth Warren {GO DEEP – AMY HOWE} {GO DEEP – Background}.

The CFPB is supposed to protect consumers from predatory financial systems.  That was the selling point. However, the CFPB is paid by (read “funded by”) the Federal Reserve to protect the interests of the U.S. dollar reserve system; that’s the deep state motive (you’ll see why later).  The other motive is the CFPB blackmailing the financial sector to support Democrat operations and policies – or else [we’re not supposed to talk about that part].

What few people paid attention to recently, including Amy Howe of SCOTUS blog, was….  the 7-2 decision not only approved the funding mechanism as constitutional (it’s not), but the high court also reversed itself on the 2020 decision about the constitutionality of the CFPB itself.  Why reverse itself in only four short years?  That’s where you need to see the leverage and insert John Roberts hiding the Sheldon Snook leak.

2017 SCOTUS had issues with the CFPB’s constitutional structure.  2020 SCOTUS still has issues with the CFPB’s constitutional structure.  2024 SCOTUS suddenly says ‘all good’ to CFPB funding and constitutional structure.  What changed?  Court is compromised by hiding the Dobbs leak.

However, Justice Alito…. same justice who wrote the Dobbs decision….  wrote the dissenting opinion on the CFPB construct (joined by Gorsuch).

AMY HOWE – In his dissenting opinion, Alito rejected Thomas’ recounting of history, arguing that the drafters of the Constitution “would be shocked, even horrified, by” the CFPB’s funding scheme. Offering his own detailed version of history, Alito concluded that “centuries of historical practice show that the Appropriations Clause demands legislative control over the source and disposition of the money used to finance Government operations and projects.”

But the CFPB’s “unprecedented combination of funding features,” Alito wrote, “affords it the very kind of financial independence that the Appropriations Clause was designed to prevent. It is not an exaggeration to say that the CFPB enjoys a degree of financial autonomy that a Stuart king would envy.”

And that autonomy, Alito continued, “has real-world consequences.” Alito noted several “major” changes to consumer protection law that the CFPB has recently announced, including guidance indicating that financial institutions should not deny credit to consumers based on their immigration status, as well as a proposed rulemaking to cap overdraft fees and remove medical bills from credit reports. “These may or may not be wise policies,” Alito concluded, “but Congress did not specifically authorize any of them, and if the CFPB’s financing scheme is sustained, Congress cannot control or monitor the CFPB’s use of funds to implement such changes.” (MORE)

Alito is correct, but that’s not the core issue.

The CFPB is funded by the federal reserve, and will be a key player in the implementation of the dollar-based Central Bank Digital Currency (D-BCBDC).   Likely, the CFPB will be the authorizing agency for the major banks that will facilitate digital currency transactions; this puts the CFPB in the position of power with the mechanics of central control. This is why Senator Elizabeth Warren is the key player in both the CFPB (she created it) and the currently ongoing legislation against crypto currency.

The D-B CBDC is almost certainly going to happen.  Too much blood and treasure (NATO push + Ukraine use) has been shed to construct the financial walls that support it (Russian sanctions). Additionally, the issues are too complex for the average person to engage in opposition.

In related news, just as Australia was the tip of the spear in the COVID-19 vaccination enforcement effort, so too is the nation down-under the leading organizer of the digital identity that forms the baseline for the digital currency distribution model.

AUSTRALIA – […] The Digital ID Bill 2024 and Digital ID (Transitional and Consequential Provisions) Bill 2024 passed through the House of Representatives on the evening of 16 May in what the Department of Finance is calling a “milestone for the program”.

“This provides certainty for the expansion of the Australian government digital ID system and for providers and services to apply to join the government’s system. An economy-wide digital ID system will provide many benefits to Australians by improving privacy and security when interacting online,” the department said in a statement.

“It will also strengthen the voluntary Accreditation Scheme for digital ID service providers that wish to demonstrate compliance with best practice privacy, security, proofing and authentication standards, providing Australians with more choice of secure and trusted providers.”

Once the act comes into effect, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will be the digital ID regulator, with the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner regulating the privacy aspects of the new system. (read more)

As most will remember, the European Union has already constructed their digital identity via the mandated COVID-19 Passport process.  For the key components, the EU is already digital id compliant thanks to COVID.

The Russian sanctions were not created to block the Russians.  The Russian sanctions were created to wall-in the West.

There are now networks of people who operate in various places that create proactive financial mechanisms for what you might call, “financial preppers.”

These people and groups set up bank accounts in foreign countries for you; they organize addresses (needed), phone numbers (needed), and create accounts that you can access that are outside the control of the dollar-based financial system.  You can even get an official passport in the process.

These people also sell hardware [to support the phone numbers (really digital ids)] that is completely different from what exists behind the wall of the yellow zone.

How many Americans know that an iPhone-15 sold in the USA is completely different from an iPhone-15 sold outside the yellow zone? Meaning, the internal hardware is different.  How many Americans know that?

How many Americans know that an iPhone-15 sold inside the USA has different originating software than an iPhone-15 sold outside the USA?

How many people know that when you purchase one of these “ghost phones”, the data network automatically identifies the disparity when the phone crosses into the yellow zone, and shortly thereafter the cellular network transmits a software update to bring the “ghost phone” into USA (yellow zone) compliance?

How many Americans know phone apps, and internal app functions, can exist on phones outside the yellow zone that do not exist inside the yellow zone?

Example: use a ghost phone, and you can access a digital wallet in Telegram; you can transmit funds to other Telegram users. However, use a USA compliant phone and you cannot.  The function is there, but the service is, “not available in your area.”

Why?

It’s about control.

If you don’t update the software, the function exists inside the yellow zone.  However, update the software, and the function disappears.

This happens.

Another real-life example was recently missed by many people when the story of the Apple Watch Series 9 was found to have violated patent technology and was banned for sale in the USA. {STORY}

To get into legal compliance, Apple transmitted a remote software update disabling the function of the patent technology in the USA.  Again, for emphasis, only in the USA.   Bring your non-compliant Series-9 into the range of a wifi network, and bingo – auto-compliance.  I mention this story only to highlight a modern compliance capability that many people do not know exists.

In essence, your tech devices – and the capability therein – are different than an identical tech device sold outside the Western control zone.

♦ Technology is intertwined with Central Bank Digital Currencies.  Tech companies are regulated by the U.S/Western government, and the tech companies have to comply.  The regulatory compliance is part of the process of control.  There are regulatory walls around us that most do not understand.  The same regulatory principle applies to finance and banking. Hence, the origination motive of the yellow zone wall, built under the auspices of Russian sanctions.

Let me make one big point resoundingly clear. When the WESTERN Central Bank Digital Currency system begins, all forms of cryptocurrency will be blocked and made unlawful inside the Western zone – either by regulation or by legislation.

Let me repeat this.  Cryptocurrency in all forms will be banned.

Crypto is not technically a currency; it is a barter based on trust.  However, at a certain point (origination or end) crypto must have the ability to transfer into currency value. Dollars (or another currency) are needed to purchase BitCoin,…. or BitCoin eventually sold or exchanged for Dollars (or another currency).  [BitCoin only used as a familiar type of crypto.]  This process is where crypto gets blocked.

Ownership of Crypto may not be unlawful, but any effort to use Crypto as an alternate digital currency to exchange value will be unlawful once the dollar based CBDC is launched.

A fully implemented govt controlled central bank digital currency will not allow competition.  Alternate digital currency will be banned.

Ultimately, a dollar-based US-Central Bank Digital Currency, ie a “digital dollar,” is about control.

Every transaction has a unique digital fingerprint, and every digital dollar can be traced by the IRS to the digital id associated with it.

There is a BIG difference between electronic funds (current), and a digital dollar (future).

CFPB Background

CBDC Background

Kash Patel-The Constitutional Guillotine: The End Of The Deep State


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China Dethroned as Germany’s Largest Trading Partner


Posted origially on May 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

GermanFlag

The United States has surpassed China to become Germany’s largest trading partner. Trade between the US and Germany came in at $68 billion (63 billion euros) during Q1, compared to about 60 billion euros between China and Germany.

If we look at these figures, they pale in comparison to the aid packages we are sending foreign nations. It is appropriate to put these numbers into perspective to understand the true economic unruliness of these proxy wars.

Now, the United States has not become more competitive, and there is a known lag in manufacturing. Biden promised to add an additional one million manufacturing jobs to the US but has failed to attract new business. The issue here is that Germany has stated they would like to reduce their reliance on Chinese goods, as does America. Concurrently, Chinese manufacturing has strengthened to where they do not need to export as many goods from Germany.

China US Trade

The IFO, a German economic research institute, found that only 37% of companies stated they were dependent on China in February 2024 compared to 46% in the year prior. The research center noted that the outbreak of Russia’s war with Ukraine was the catalyst for the West decreasing trade with China. “The proportion of German companies that rely on important inputs or goods from China has declined in both industry and trade and is now just under 40% in each case,” the study states.

It is undeniable that Chinese goods come at a lower cost to the consumer. However, smart business does not conduct trade with an adversary, and the West was the first to label China due to its ties to Russia and the West’s desire to dismantle the One China policy with Taiwan. China is also hesitant to conduct business in the West, as they have seen numerous businesses sanctioned or dismantled. People are praising the US and Germany for reducing trade with China, one of the bad guys. They do not realize that this will lead to a higher cost of goods for everyone.