Posted originally on May 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Retail sales in the US fell short of expectations this month, according to data compiled by the Commerce Department. Retail spending decreased 0.6% from April to March, undermining forecasts of a 0.4% decrease. Yet, Americans are spending MORE on the essentials such as groceries. How is this a shocking admittance to anyone?
Even online sales fell by 1.2% from March to April. Americans spent 1.6% less at clothing retailers, and 0.9% less at hobby stores on a monthly basis. Again, of no surprise, gasoline sales rose 3.1%.
The Fed is attempting to smooth over the data, using rhetorical language such as the economy is presenting a “softer tone.”Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who believes monetary policy is “in a good place” albeit “restrictive.” Williams, like Chair Powell, said that there are no indicators stating a need to lower interest rates. “I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on the inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term.”
The Fed held rates loosely for so long that there was not much it could do, in addition to the utter disaster that is America’s fiscal policy. I explained in another post why the Fed simply cannot attain the 2% target.
People do not have the disposable income to spend on retail at this point, and those who do prefer to invest or save those funds as confidence has vanished, leading to a pullback in spending on nonessentials. Bad news for America’s consumer-based economy.
April’s CPI is up 3.4% YoY, slightly down from March’s 3.5% posting. I do not believe they are accurately calculating prices. No one believes them at this point. So, we should expect the Fed to maintain the 5.25% to 5.50% rates at the next FOMC meeting. Inflation is here to stay.
Posted Originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Powell reiterated this week that he does not see any short-term need to lower interest rates. The Fed remains delicate in its speech to the public. They knew that inflation would continue rising due to various factors but had to say they were awaiting incoming data. The data is in for Q1 and nothing indicates that inflation is easing, therefore, expect rates to hold.
The Labor Department noted that the PPI rose to 0.5% in April from May, up 2.2% since the year prior. PCE, the Fed’s primary inflation indicator, rose 2.7% in Match from 2.5% in February. The US economy overall advanced 2.7% from October to December. We are looking at inflation beginning to rise faster than economic growth, which will lead to stagflation.
I have pointed out numerous times that the various measures provided to the public drastically downplay the dollar’s loss in purchasing power. Americans can feel it daily every time they make a purchase or check their bank accounts.
I explained that we already began experiencing stagflation in 2021. Normally, the standard definition of “stagflation” has been explained as slow economic growth with relatively high unemployment/or economic stagnation that takes place with rising prices. Some have also defined it as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).
Stagflation became a term that defined the 1970s because economic growth was still positive, but the rate of inflation was far greater due to the price shock of the OPEC embargo. The Democrats are constantly pushing to raise taxes, and sent corporations fleeing offshore, and it was NOT merely because of the tax rate. Back then, I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee on taxation, and they wanted to know why NO American company got a contract from China to construct the Yellow River Dam. I explained that German companies were NOT taxed on worldwide income, and as such, they were already 40% less than an American company because Americans pay taxes on worldwide income, and the ONLY other country to that was Japan. Thus, American companies moved offshore, NOT because labor was cheaper, but so they could complete.
Now, we have additional regulations that are making it increasingly difficult for American businesses to prosper. The capital gains tax will be a nail in the coffin. The recent tariff slap on Chinawill also cause the price of goods to rise and harm the supply chain.
Remember, inflation was only 1.4% when Joe Biden took office – far beneath the Fed’s target. Inflation has risen as a direct result of fiscal policies under Bidenomics. The government has completely ignored the Fed’s warning that it must curtail spending. We are sacrificing our economy for the interests of the globalists.
Posted originally on May 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Germany is considering forcing the youngest adults in their population to die in the name of a proxy war that in no way affected Germany, the German people or their way of life. Former President Donald Trump warned Germany that it had become too reliant on Russian energy and they mocked him. Sadly, German leadership had known all along that the ultimate goal was to use Ukraine as their gateway to attack Russia. As I’ve stated countless times, Merkel openly admitted that the Minsk Agreement was merely a ploy to weaken Russia’s defenses and buy time for Ukraine to build its military. Russia has not backed down and now the proxy war is becoming a global conflict.
Everyone criticized Trump for condemning his NATO allies in 2018. At the time, only five nations were meeting their 2% GDP spending requirement on NATO defense, with the US paying around 5%. Trump suggested that everyone contribute 4% to build a stronger alliance. He never wanted to back away from NATO to support Putin; rather, he wanted to back away from NATO because he felt the US had been taken advantage of by its European allies. Trump even threatened to remove the US from the NATO alliance because he simply did not see the benefits to domestic interests.
Trump called Ukraine the wall between Russia and Europe and stated that America had become the “sucker country” by shelling out millions to Ukraine when they received far less in return. He warned Europe that their reliance on Russian imported energy would spell disaster and went as far as declaring that Germany was “totally controlled by Russia.” Instead of looking for energy alternatives, Germany went through with the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and wasted billions as sanctions were implemented before the pipeline was fully functional.
This is yet another reason why they are fearful of a Trump re-election, for he has vowed to remove America from these senseless wars as part of his first plan of action. The globalists and neocons simply cannot allow that to happen.
Perhaps Germany believed they could rely on an alternative supplier for energy. Perhaps they believed Ukraine would have made at least a dent in Russia’s military power. Instead, they are prepared to send their own kids to die for this senseless war. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he is “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.”
Since the West has effectively eliminated genders or the need for a family structure, they plan to draft both men and women. Anyone fit to fight will be sent off to die. Pistorius believes Germany needs 200,000 troops to begin training immediately.
The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) are no longer opposing conscription and now support the “reintroduction of conscription in a step-by-step process,” much to the support of Pistorius. All those virtue signaling with Ukraine flags and cheering each aid package must now acknowledge that their own youth will be sent off to war, and many will never return home. They cheer the “good” guys winning these battles abroad in Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, but fail to understand that there is no “good” guy in the game of war. The people are merely chess pieces to be used as pawns by their governments.
The worst part about all of this is that Germany KNEW they were going to fight Russia. Ten years ago, Germany knew they were going to fight Russia. I discuss this in detail in my book, “The Plot to Seize Russia.” The fact of the matter is that the West could not simply enter Russia without giving the public a reason for warfare and creating countless fake flags, demonizing its opponent through propaganda, and attempting to weaken its military through a proxy war. We are now embarking on the beginning of the third world war thanks to the manipulation of the elites in power who have absolutely no regard for human life.
The problem with people’s attitudes toward the national debt is that everyone has forgotten why we borrowed in the first place. The theory was that if you borrowed rather than printed money, you were NOT increasing the existing money supply, and therefore, in theory, it would not be inflationary.
However, the Democrats forgot how to run for government without their Marxist agenda of bribing the people to vote for them. This led to always creating deficits. Add to this the NEOCONS who have done nothing but wage wars ever since World War II to defeat Communism and have spent money lavishly on trying to conquer the world.
During the Presidential Third Debate of 1960, the question about the outflow of gold from the USA reserves arose. This sparked a Gold Panic in the London gold market, whereby gold rallied to $40 for the first time, showing that the Bretton Woods System was beginning to collapse. The United States’ outflow of gold was not really from a trade deficit but from the fact that the USA was defending the world with its military establishing bases everywhere. That meant capital was leaving. Gold rallied again to $40 in the late 1960s, and finally, it forced the collapse of the convertibility of gold under the Bretton Woods System in 1971. Kennedy’s words were:
“Now, on the question of gold. The difficulty, of course, is that we do have heavy obligations abroad, that we therefore have to maintain not only a favorable balance of trade but also send a good deal of our dollars overseas to pay our troops, maintain our bases, and sustain other economies. In other words, if we’re going to continue to maintain our position in the sixties, we have to maintain a sound monetary and fiscal policy. We have to have control over inflation, and we also have to have a favorable balance of trade. We have to be able to compete in the world market.”
The dollars were being spent not to benefit our economy but to fulfill the dreams of the Neocons; when Communism fell, they refused to accept any real change.
Rome takes care of widows and orphans.
We borrow, which is worse than printing because we have to pay interest on constantly rolling the debt. This year, we will spend about $1 trillion on interest, the total national debt when Reagan took office in 1981. At times, 70% of the national debt is accumulative interest. That means it went nowhere to improve society or care for widows and orphans, at least as the Romans did. Had we printed the money instead of borrowing, it would have been less inflationary and the capital would have created more jobs instead of investing in government debt which has only funded the Neocons’ wildest dreams.
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