The U.S. State Department just issued a warning to all Americans in Ukraine to get out now. Russia says any moves against Crimea will be disastrous for the West. Starbucks closes 16 stores because due to liberal-run city problems. Justin Trudeau just hit a new low. And DHS is caught by ACLU buying millions of dollars in cell phone tracking software to track Americans.
The supply chain crisis is an ongoing disaster that has greatly contributed to inflation. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been touting the idea of “friend-shoring” for over a year. Not to be confused with onshoring or nearshoring, friend-shoring will somewhat limit the supply chain to allied nations. Why on Earth would we want to limit the supply chain to any extent at this time?
Yellen stated that Russia and COVID, the main political scapegoats for anything that goes wrong, are to blame for redrawing “the contours of global supply chains and trade.” Let us be reminded that China is America’s top trading partner, albeit deemed “unfriendly.” Russia, the motherland of energy, also falls on this unfriendly list that is likely to align with what will later become the modern-day axis powers.
BRASILIA, BRAZIL – NOVEMBER 13: (RUSSIA OUT) Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) during their bilateral meeting on November 13, 2019 in Brasilia, Brazil. The leaders of Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa have gathered in Brasilia for the BRICS leaders summit. (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)
“We do not want a retreat from the world, causing us to forgo the benefits it brings to the American people and the markets for businesses and exports,” Yellen said while speaking in South Korea. “In doing so we can help to insulate both American and Korean households from the price increases and disruptions caused by geopolitical and economic risks … in that sense, we can continue to strengthen the international system we’ve all benefited from, while also protecting ourselves from the fragilities in global trade networks.”
Her comments come within the same week that President Biden appealed to Saudi Arabia for help — a country that obviously aligns with US morals. In April, Yellen stated that friend-shoring could strengthen sanctions as the “friendly nations” would act as a united front in ostracizing one economy. Her comments about Russia quickly turned to anti-China sentiments. Yellen stated:
“China has recently affirmed a special relationship with Russia. I fervently hope that China will make something positive of this relationship and help to end this war. Going forward, it will be increasingly difficult to separate economic issues from broader considerations of national interest, including national security. The world’s attitude towards China and its willingness to embrace further economic integration may well be affected by China’s reaction to our call for resolute action on Russia.”
Similar to how those responsible for the failed euro believed it would prevent all European wars, the idea of friend-shoring relies on the belief that trade will become seamless among aligned nations. “Favoring the friend-shoring of supply chains to a large number of trusted countries, so we can continue to securely extend market access, will lower the risks to our economy as well as to our trusted trade partners,” Yellen stated in April before calling on those same nations to implement a global tax.
Yes, this will cause foreign investment to look outside of the US and this Western bloc of trade. What happens when the crucial supplies needed are outside of these territories? Everyone is currently begging “unfriendly nations” for oil and buying it at a premium from neutral nations who sell it to the West at a higher price. Bad business all around. The West is basically telling Russia and China that they are being cast aside from trade with the misconception of having the upper hand.
Yes, the government is tracking your movements. You do not need to have a COVID pass installed on your phone nor do you need to be a criminal. The location data industry has become a $12 billion market that is actively growing.
It recently came to light that the Trump Administration began tracking mobile data on a grand scale. The Department of Homeland Security targeted information on at least 336,000 data points across the country. Biden continued tracking American’s locations and provided the Customs and Border Protection with a $20,000 contract last September.
One company, Venntel, said that it has access to 250 million phones and devices. There are currently no restrictions on this invasion of privacy, and the government may legally track you and your family. This information has been abused by various agencies, such as one that tracked the location of people who visited abortion clinics. The US military even used the technology to identify Muslim populations.
“There are over 350 million mobile devices in the United States in use today, and that number is growing exponentially as more people purchase mobile devices every day. Therefore it is not uncommon to encounter individuals involved with illicit activity taking advantage of mobile technology to further their criminal goals,” a contract between CBP and Venntel said.
You can attempt to turn off your device’s location, but that is extremely difficult considering the number of apps we use on a daily basis. GPS? Tracked! Social media? Tracked! Various search engines? You bet!
I believe this violates the Fourth Amendment, which is intended to protect citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures by the government.
Two groups that usually overlap are about to come into direct confrontation due to the net-zero carbon culture. Both climate and animal rights activists have been known to make their voices heard through protests that are not always peaceful. Farmers are being unfairly targeted by climate change activists for having cattle that produce emissions, and governments are ramping up legislation to limit farming.
Farmers in Norway have been protesting for months as the government plans to eliminate around 30% of agriculture to reduce carbon emissions. Now, Northern Ireland is considering eliminating over one million cattle and sheep to meet emission targets by 2050. The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) estimates that 500,000 cattle and 700,000 sheep will need to die. In a separate analysis, five million chickens will need to be slaughtered before 2035.
While animal activists to the extreme would like to end farming and create a meatless world, they are not going to be happy when they realize those piloting the climate change agenda plan to kill these animals rather than allowing them to live out their days on taxpayer-funded farms.
Activism aside, we are in the midst of a food crisis. Those in first-world nations have seen the cost of food rise drastically throughout the past year. Perhaps some of your groceries of choice are no longer available or are often out of stock. However, people are starving to death in less developed parts of the world at a rapid rate and there is not enough food or funding to save everyone. In fact, the World Bank estimated that world hunger reached a high in 2021 when 193 million became food insecure, a number that rose by 40 million from 2020. Our model indicates that this cycle will continue to grow.
In the meantime, those championing saving the world with various causes will come into direct confrontation with one another. The left will increasingly divide into left v Socialists and dampen plans for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia did not go as planned. Saudi Arabia will temporarily increase oil production in July and August in exchange for a slew of removed restrictions. Civilian aircrafts from Israel will be permitted to fly over Saudi Arabia. Peacekeepers will be removed from Tiran Island, where US soldiers have been stationed since the late 1970s. Five Americans were killed in a helicopter crash over this region in 2020, but intel swears it had nothing to do with terrorism. Tiran Island will now be redeveloped into a tourist destination, although I am unsure how eager the general public will be to visit.
Per usual, Biden pledged to give a foreign nation tons of money to develop their infrastructure while leaving America in the dust. This will be done through support for the US Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), which was announced at the last G7 summit. The US will also help Saudi Arabia deploy 5G technology and expand internet access.
Humorously, Biden welcomed the Partnership Framework for Advancing Clean Energy to help Saudi Arabia “transition and combat the effects of climate change.” Oil is the Saudi’s bread and butter, and building green energy infrastructure is likely not a promise that will be kept.
Both the left and right are angry with the president for grappling at the feet of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Bernie Sanders slammed Biden for visiting Saudi Arabia. “If this country believes in anything, we believe in human rights, we believe in democracy, and I just don’t believe that we should be maintaining a warm relationship with a dictatorship like that,” Sanders said. Biden maintained that he spoke to the crown prince about the death of Khashoggi at the top of the meeting, but the crown prince maintained innocence and said to tread lightly when interfering in alleged human rights abuses.
Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, explained it well. “The Crown Prince pointed out to President Biden that we the kingdom, the respect for human rights is a core value for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on our Islamic beliefs and our Arab heritage. And that it’s absolutely important that values be spread through dialogue. Trying to impose your values on others is not going to be effective. It will get you a negative reaction. … The right way to try and put your values forward is to show the world that you adhere first of all to those values, that you are respecting your own values.”
Basically, Saudi Arabia is going to continue operating as it sees fit and has the leverage to negotiate lucrative deals since the US is unwilling to drill. “In the end you cannot impose your values by force. … The Crown Prince was quite clear with President Biden, and we have our own values and those are not going to align 100% with US values ever because we are very, very proud of our own traditions, our own values, our own faith,” bin Farhan said.
It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.
Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.
Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.
Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.
Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.
We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.
Yet another shake-up among Schwab’s leaders. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stepped down from her role on a technicality before being reappointed a day later. Kallas’ Reform Party reached an agreement with the Social Democrats and Isamaa Party to form a new three-party coalition.
Estonia shares a 180-mile border with Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine before the war began. Estonia is a small nation with a population of around 31 million and a GDP of $36.29 billion USD. Their inflation rate is among the highest in Europe after spiking to 22% in June.
Estonia has a large Russian population but has the comfort of being a NATO nation. The new government is aiming to eliminate their Russian ties by banning Russian from being spoken in school. Russians and Belarusians now have a more difficult time immigrating to Estonia or even traveling there without a visa.
Estonia is cracking down on potential spies or intelligence agencies at the border. The poster above has appeared around the border, with the government encouraging people to turn in anyone who they suspect is involved with Russian intelligence agencies. Kallas also has the epigenetic fear of her neighbor as her mother, grandmother, and great-grandmother were once deported to Siberia. The small nation will use its strategic position to help the West’s proxy war, and Kallas herself said that negotiating a peace deal with Putin is off the table.
“For us, it is important to not make that mistake again like we did in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia,” she said. “We have done the same mistake already three times saying that, you know, negotiations, negotiated peace is the goal. … The only thing that Putin hears from this is that ‘I can do this because no punishment will follow.’”
Renters across the globe are in a bad spot as housing has become unaffordable. The situation is particularly bad in Australia where rentals have reached a high not seen since 2009. As of March, the average rental was A$600 per week, surpassing the mid-2018 high of A$550. The is not enough supply to meet demand.
Housing availability dropped by nearly 50% from December 2021 to March 2022. The situation worsened once borders reopened as visa holders and tourists re-entered the nation. The vacancy rate, according to the CBD, has declined to 1.5% after peaking at 5.7% during the pandemic.
Some estimate that the “economic time bomb” of under-investment in affordable housing will cost taxpayers A$25 billion per year by 2051. Housing All Australians founder Rob Pradolin believes this figure is closer to A$110 billion, and believes a $55 billion investment could deliver a 2:1 cost-benefit ratio. At least 2 million Australian low-income households will be under “housing stress” by 2051. That is an optimistic forecast.
Similar to America, the UK, and many other nations, shelter inflation has caused housing costs to become one of the biggest budget expenses.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been accused of being out of touch by suggesting Australians simply buy a house. That is simply not possible for many, especially after the government-imposed lockdowns and shuttered countless businesses during COVID. Morrison has suggested allowing people to access their super (similar to pensions) early in order to purchase a home. Superannuation Minister Jane Hume said that this would result in rising home prices. Labor leader Anthony Albanese also criticized the plan by calling it a desperate “attack on future savings” and future generations. “If you take super away from people, then you’ll have higher deficits and bills from the government in the future,” he told reporters.
Oddly enough, Mr. Morrison vacated his own home, branded “Squat Morrison,” after losing the election to Albanese and taking his time leaving the property.
Unfortunately, Albanese has a worse plan in mind. Low-income residents will have the opportunity to buy a home, with the help of Big Brother government. The government will pay between 30% to 40% of total housing costs for 10,000 buyers annually. Instead of paying back the banks, the people must pay the government back if they can afford to do so.
You will own nothing and be happy.
COMMENT: I thought you were just a Trumper warning what would happen if Biden won. I have come back to your site because I can see inflation approaching 10% as you said and the dollar is rising which made no sense as gold stalled. I think you also said that real estate will decline perhaps into 2023. Has there ever been such a wild combination of events?
Thanks
Pete
ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to deliver such forecasts. They are NEVER my personal opinion. In all honesty, it truly takes a computer to sort out all the global trends. Personal opinions will not cut it when you enter a period that has not unfolded in a very long time.
I have told the story before that back in 1985 when we were going to open our first office in Europe, I went to lunch with one of the heads of a Swiss bank when I was there. I had a list of names we came up with like European Advisers or something like that because I knew there was a lot of anti-Americanism in Europe. He asked me to name one European analyst. I could not. I was embarrassed but he said there were none.
He then explained that everyone was using our firm on currency because “You do not give a shit if the dollar goes up or down.” He elaborated that in Europe if any analyst ever said their currency would decline it would have been seen as treason since the politicians had used currency to prove they did a good job rebuilding Europe after the war.
I learned many years ago, that the only way to operate was to call the shots as they unfold. My personal opinion means nothing. I cannot make a market rise when its trend is down. I am here to simply deliver what the computer projects. No matter how loud I could scream, it does not matter. What will be – will be.
Real Estate is undergoing three separate trends. First, there has been mass evacuation from cities and high-taxed states thanks also to draconian COVID laws. Secondly, we have the flight of capital to flee banks, etc which is part of just getting capital off the grid. Then thirdly, there has been a flight of international capital fleeing to the United States because of geopolitical instability in Europe.
The standard claim is that real estate will drop by 50% all because of interest rates pointing to some cities declining by 4% in June alone. This is merely confusing the people for they are looking at only the big cities that are already in decline for a separate reason from interest rates.
The claim that interest rate hikes imply that real estate will decline is very old school and once more it presumes everyone is buying on leverage. In 2021, cash sales represented 25% of existing home sales in the key markets that were a level unmatched since 2016. Nationally, buyers paid cash for almost 15% of the homes in 2021 in markets that were booming from migration from other states.
Florida, the Tampa market was even hotter. Single-family homes saw 45.5% more buyers paid cash than in 2020. The number of condo buyers paying cash went up 33.2%. While more people paid cash, the inventory dropped, with 29.2% fewer active listings of single-family homes in the 2021 third quarter than in 2020. Condo listings dropped even more, at 52.2% fewer available. Speaking to a local realtor, houses in excess of $1 million in the Tampa area were 95% cash deals.
This market has been LESS impacted by interest rate hikes than any previous booming market all because of the migration from interstate within the US and the flood of European buyers looking for assets outside of Europe as war keeps getting closer and closer. I have warned that real estate will decline in those states where people are fleeing. It has boomed in places they have been migrating to such as Texas and Florida. Obviously, you can no longer make a blanket forecast in real estate. Then there has been Blackrock which has bought over 20,000 homes in Florida in the lower-end of the market for cash.
I have warned many times that the standard nonsense that gold rises with inflation has been a sales pitch as trustworthy as a used car salesman. Gold rises during the collapse in the confidence of the government. Everyone will respond based on their own currency. As the dollar rises, gold has declined in US$, but the pattern will be different for every other currency.
If I had to hazard a guess about what this was, I’d say it is most likely: (a) part of the massive Ukrainian stores of mortars and landmines in eastern Ukraine that were moved in order to keep the Russians from capturing them; or (b) the actual arms that were captured by Russian and then sold on the world arms market. Either way, somehow, they end up as part of an arms deal from Serbia to Bangladesh.
With the new and improved western weapons provided by the United States, Ukraine is likely upgrading and selling their old weapons to various nefarious arms dealers.
This shipment happened to crash, and that’s the only reason we are hearing about it.
(Via Daily Mail) – Soldiers in hazmat suits searched for signs of nuclear and chemical substances at the crash site of a Ukrainian cargo plane transporting nearly a dozen tons of mortar shells and land mines.
The Antonov An-12 light aircraft, which was transporting the weapons from Serbia to Bangladesh, had eight Ukrainian crew members onboard. They were all killed.
An official at Kyiv cargo operator Meridian told Reuters: ‘Of course they didn’t survive this.’ Eyewitnesses filmed the fireball crash in the early hours today, with explosions continuing for two hours and the charred wreckage burning until morning.
Drone images from the scene showed debris from the bulking aircraft strewn in fields. Serbia’s defense minister said the plane was carrying 11.5 tonnes of products made by its defense industry and the buyer was Bangladesh defense ministry. Greek authorities could not provide any more information on the aircraft’s cargo. (more)
Previously Russia was reporting to have captured a massive Ukranian military weapons cache near Kharkov (northeastern Ukraine). I wrote about it HERE. However, the video (partial screengrab below) was quickly removed by the internet police.
The doomed weapons shipment supposedly originated from Serbia, so the original source could be either Ukraine or Russia. Who knows? Amid all of the propaganda, Ukraine corruption and furious U.S. arms shipments into Ukraine, there are multiple sketchy participants likely involved in selling the arms on the global black market.
FUBAR
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