QUESTION: Hi Martin,

You have mentioned repeatedly that gold is a hedge against political uncertainty. For the past several years the price has hovered at the cost of production and exploration is virtually non-existent as capital has dried up.

Nevertheless, the world is a political mess as far as the eye can see. So, it seems odd that gold is not bid more aggressively.

Regards,

Eric

ANSWER: The only time gold has rallied significantly is when the CONFIDENCE in government declines. That was the case during the post-1976 era for people saw inflation as running away. That was because of OPEC creating STAGFLATION meaning it was cost-push inflation that eventually converted to demand-push inflation by mid-1979. I understand that all of these gold-bug analysts have been preaching hyperinflation for decades. The whole Quantitative Easing (QE) was supposed to create $10,000 gold years ago. Here, after 10 years of QE, gold remains trapped in a consolidation.

Gold will be the hedge against political uncertainty and government ONLY when the people reach that critical point of losing faith in government. We are at the 35% level where people believe the government is the number one problem. When that crosses the 45% mark, things will start to become different. This has nothing to do with the quantity of money. Most millennials use their phones to buy things or credit cards – not cash. The idea of gold as a store of value has faded between generations. The worst thing you could do is judge the world by what you believe. Everyone will act only on their own reasoning and belief system.

The environmentalists have really gutted Alberta which was an economy based upon commodities. With that industry under assault, the economy has been decline. According to the quarterly report released April 1st 2019, Calgary’s downtown vacancy rate is currently at 26.5%, the highest in Canada. Although it decreased slightly from its peak at 27.8% in the second quarter of 2018, it still exceeds the vacancy rate from the economic crisis in the 1980’s which stood at 22%. And although this has been in the 20% range for a few years now, it shows no sign of stopping soon.

With a loss in tax revenues from the downtown core, rising property taxes have shifted onto the shoulders of small businesses. Property taxes for small businesses have increased considerably from 2017 to 2018 and small  business owners were told the bill for 2019 will be even higher. Some businesses have had their property taxes increase by over 400% when they received their assessment, with the first substantial increase due July 1st 2019.

Alberta’s businesses have weathered numerous fiscal storms recently; the recession due to the fall in the price of oil and decreasing property values, the introduction of carbon tax on Jan 1, 2017 with a further increase on Jan 1, 2018 and the spike in minimum wage from $10.20 to $15.00 on Oct 1 2018, but the new property tax increase takes the cake and the already thin margins of struggling businesses will be wiped out completely. Many have reached out through social media and are connecting through a Facebook page called “Sorry, Calgary is closing.”

An emergency council meeting will be taking place Monday June 10th to try to patch things up but the council of Calgary won’t be the only ones there; a massive rally will be taking place before City Hall at 7:30am in protest. Petitions are also circulating as many are calling for the province to step in immediately and remove Calgary’s council members, including Mayor Nenshi himself.

What they don’t seem to realize, is if you raise taxes enough, there won’t be any incentive to work. People will instead be driven away and go where the prospects are more opportunistic for them. Like in Vancouver where the price of gas was at an all-record high last month ($1.789 per litre or $6.772 per gallon CAD) and many drove across the border to Washington State to fill up not only their vehicle, but multiple jerrycans as well. People will
always migrate away from where the prices and taxes are outrageous and Calgary is no different

QUESTION:

Good Sir,

When you say the ‘rich get rich by investments, not wages’ you fail to identify the following wealthy class.
CEO’s of corporations, ‘Hollywood’ movie stars, Sports athletes, Recording artists, etc.

Regards and continued success,

An avid follower

LB

ANSWER: There are always exceptions, but those who receive big bonuses or high wages such as sports and movie stars are a tiny fraction of what they call the “rich.” The “rich” are defined as households with income in excess of $250,000. The “rich” who have built wealth from creating businesses and investment are really 99% of that class. The movie stars and sports figures are paid salaries based upon their draw. Many others in Hollywood get base salaries and a percentage of the box office take. The CEOs get bonuses based upon performance.

The government takes Social Security and places restrictions whereby it can only invest in government bonds. This deprives the average person from making appreciable capital gains.