Tag Archives: The Forecaster

May 2 2018

U.S.T.R. Lighthizer Tells U.S. Chamber of Commerce NAFTA “On Thin Ice”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on May 1, 2018 by

Ambassador Lighthizer comments on NAFTA prior to departing for China.  In the auto sector, Mexico and Canada are still arguing for more Asian/Chinese parts for U.S. automobiles.  The U.S. position is for higher North American content. Loggerheads.

I still find it stunning how many people cannot see the ridiculous side of the Mexican and Canadian position; and how that showcases the insanity of NAFTA. Can/Mex are not arguing for more Canada and Mexico content, they are holding out for more Asian content.  Their economic models are nothing more than brokering the assembly of cheap Asian goods through their NAFTA access to the U.S. market.  Ridiculous.

WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Tuesday that if a deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement cannot be reached with Canada and Mexico in about three weeks, its approval by the U.S. Congress could be in jeopardy.

Lighthizer said at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event that a deal to update NAFTA was needed quickly because of the lengthy notification process for congressional approval of trade deals.

If a deal takes too long, he said approval by the current Republican-controlled Congress may be on “thin ice” without sufficient time for a vote before November elections put a new Congress in control in January 2019.

Lighthizer is traveling to Beijing for trade talks with Chinese officials on Thursday and Friday, but will resume intensive negotiations with Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo on May 7.

“We’re going to meet again on Monday, and we’ll see,” Lighthizer said. “If we can get a good agreement, I’d like to get it done a week or two after that. If not, then you start having a problem.”  (read more)

Regarding China, Lighthizer expanded his comments drawing attention to the inherent differences between a communist “controlled” state policies, and the free market:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s chief trade negotiator said on Tuesday he was not looking to negotiate changes to China’s state-driven economic system in trade talks in Beijing this week but would seek to expose it to more foreign competition.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce he viewed the talks with top Chinese officials on Thursday and Friday as the start of a long learning process for Washington and Beijing to better manage their trade differences.

“It is not my objective to change the Chinese system,” Lighthizer said. “It seems to work for them. … But I have to be in a position where the United States can deal with it, where the United States isn’t the victim of it; and that’s where our role is.”

Lighthizer will be part of a Trump administration delegation that includes U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, White House trade and manufacturing adviser Peter Navarro and new White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow.

Ross said earlier on Tuesday that Trump was prepared to levy tariffs on China if the delegation did not reach a negotiated settlement to reduce trade imbalances.

Speaking to CNBC television before traveling to China for the talks, Ross said he had “some hope” agreements could be reached to resolve the trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

But Ross and Navarro, who spoke to steel company executives in Washington on Tuesday, both said any final decision would be made by Trump.  (read more)

May 2 2018

Beware of Household Income Interpretation


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have warned that one of the clever ways taxes are raised is by changing the definition of the rich. We can see that when FDR came into office, the definition of the rich became $5 million because he was planning to introduce the payroll tax and everyone had to pay. That was a lot of money when a Cadaliac cost $600. After the war, the definition dropped dramatically. Then we see in the ’90s, the definition was raised to $250,000.

However, this is called “household” income. They have already begun to apply this to people with disability. If a parent is disabled and is living with a child, the government wants to reduce the social security benefit because the “household” income is too high, So in a clever way, the government is denying you social security benefits if your combined income with you children exceeds their threshold.

The talk behind the curtain is that since children over 30 are living with their parents, the “household” income should now include all children living with their parents. Of course, they fail to see that they are creating a crisis by forcing children out the door who cannot afford an apartment by sending their parent tax rate higher. They never consider the social impact of taxation.

For the Health Insurance Marketplace, a household usually includes the tax filer, their spouse if they have one, and their tax dependents who are children they claim. Under Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), they have adopted this new definition of household income called Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI). The government is defining households and income for the purposes of determining eligibility for benefits based on everyone in the house.

If you got divorced on December 31st, the tax code will be applied to a single person at a higher rate for the entire year. If you claim Head of Household as an unmarried person for tax purposes, the qualifying person is limited to your son or daughter or eligible foster child – not even your parents.

Beware of applying the definition of “household” income to the income tax. That is clearly another thing on the Democrat’s wish list.

May 2 2018

The First Representative Form of Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies

Re-Posted May 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Egyptian Monetary System

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I was discussing the history of money with a professor at our university where they have a display of coins. I asked why were there no Egyptian coins. He referred me to your site and said that you are the expert in the world monetary system. I read your piece on the Egyptian deben monetary system. The Egyptians began with a representative money rather than coins. Is this the oldest civilization with pyramids and paper money?

JY

Tutankamun-Coffin

mycaene-Gold-cup-55ANSWER: From a monetary perspective, the Egyptian monetary system is by far the first representative form of money. In other words, they used a derivative of paper money proving that money also need not be tangible as has been the case in modern times. The central element of any monetary system hinges upon whatever the people “believe” has value. In Egypt, gold was seen as the tears of god and was reserved EXCLUSIVELY for royalty. Gold did not serve as any sort of medium of exchange until about 700 BC. Why? For anything to serve as the medium of exchange it must exist in sufficient quantity. As long as gold was rare, it was exclusively the property of kings and represented a luxury with no PRACTICAL value whatsoever.

Egypt’s monetary system began with barter. It was primarily based on agriculture – grain. This evolved into official Graineries and a farmer would then take his crop to the Grainery and receive a receipt. With time, the monetary system evolved where people would then accept these receipts (paper money) in payment.

The huge difference between Egypt and Mesopotamia can be seen through the monetary system. The earliest use of metal appears to be in Mesopotamia cast in the form of silver rings. In ancient Egypt, silver was probably more expensive than gold which was rather common after the exploitation of the Numbian mines. Evidence supporting this idea comes from a New Kingdom Period wall painting depicting a man weighing big gold rings which were discovered in Thebes. This is the Deben Monetary System.

Eventually, gold rings became customary to carry out trade with the outside world. So we tend to find the beginning of a two-tier monetary system using grain receipts for local small transactions and gold rings for international payments of a higher monetary value. We see this type of two-tier monetary system throughout the ancient world right into modern times. Ancient Athenian Decadrachms are traditionally discovered around the Mediterranean seaport rather than in Greece reflecting they were high denominations used in international trade. Bretton Woods used gold dor international payments and paper money for domestic US transactions when gold was illegal for citizens to possess. The two-tier monetary system lasted in modern times up until August 1971.

To make trade between Phoenicia and Mesopotamia easier they created a system that could have been based on the traditional Egyptian measurement known as deben that was equal to about 86 grams, which would exchange for 12 shekels used by Babylon and Phoenicia of about 7.2 grams per unit. Pictured here is a dishekel of the Phoenician city of Tyre, which is believed to be the earliest known coin circa 450-425BC. The date of the first Phoenician coins is uncertain. The earliest date generally accepted by scholars is about 450 BC and initially, the coins were all silver with weights based on variations of the Babylonian shekel of 7.2 grams. The most interesting aspect is that Phoenicia possessed no precious metal mines. The source of their silver came from trade with distant mines in Spain and possibly Sardinia. The motif is that of a dolphin riding the waves and the reverse with the wisdom of the owl.

Now, just to address your comment that Egypt has the oldest pyramids, that is an incorrect statement. Caral has the distinction of being the oldest known city in the Americas and one of the oldest in the world. In fact, the Caral Pyramids were built approximately 5,000 years ago and they are actually OLDER than the Egyptian pyramids by around 100 years. They predate the Inca Pyramids by some 4000 years. Like other pyramids in history, the Caral pyramids are believed to have religious significance. There are six total pyramids.

The Norte Chico civilization flourished between the 4th and 2nd centuries BC. It appears to have been simply a barter civilization, yet there are many mysteries yet to be solved. For instance, there remain some very curious questions unanswered such as why are there no surviving evidence of ceramics? They appear to have used gourds instead of ceramics. Gourds may be good for storage and drinking or eating, but would not function as pots for cooking. There appears to also be missing any evidence of agriculture so it is possible they never eat bread. We do know that they used blue whale vertebrae as stools suggesting that they lived off the sea. It is entirely possible that they eat fish raw like the Japanese.

On some of the gourds, figures have been discovered which may represent a deity. Very few have survived but they may represent some form of a god reflecting a religious belief system that appears to be common to all civilizations. There is also no sign of significant surviving art perhaps because they were made from organic material, which did not survive.

May 1 2018

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Arrives At U.S. State Dept. – Delivers Introduction Speech…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 1, 2018 by

In many regards the transfer of the CIA Director to the Position of Secretary of State is a natural continuum.  Most career foreign office CIA operatives work under the auspices of being State Department personnel.  The CIA and State Department are inherently connected.

[A familiar reference would be, the synergy of Leon Panetta and Hillary Clinton during their Libya and Syria operations in 2010, 2011, 2012.]

Today Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives at Foggy Bottom (State HQ) in Washington DC to meet the diplomatic corps.  He delivered introductory remarks:

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[Transcript] DEPUTY SECRETARY SULLIVAN: Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for being here. It’s a great honor to be here to introduce our new Secretary of State. Before I do so, I wanted to thank all of you, each and every one of you, for your hard work over the last six weeks. The pace of world events doesn’t pause to allow the United States Government to change from one secretary of state to another, but it’s because of your dedication and professionalism that this department has continued to meet its mission for the American people. So thank you to all of you for all you’ve done the last six weeks. (Applause.)

And now it’s my great honor to introduce our new Secretary. You all know his bio; he’s a former three-term member of Congress, former-now director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

I offer my own perspective as somebody who comes from the private practice of law; in looking at his bio, I looked at it through the lens of a former law firm partner, and I imagined how I would assess his bio if I were looking at our opposing counsel, and I had to advise my client on who we were going to be dealing with. And what stood out to me was we have a tank commander who then went to Harvard Law School and was elected to the Harvard Law Review, which is a pretty unusual combination.

So if I were advising my client about who we were going to be dealing with on the other side of the table if we’re in negotiation, or if it were in a court room, I’d say, “Wow. Well, ma’am, we’re dealing with a cross between George Patton and Oliver Wendell Holmes.” (Laughter.)

So that’s a pretty tough combination to face as an opponent, but the good news for us is he’s coming here to lead our team. It’s the adversaries of the United States who are going to be facing that formidable opponent across the table.

So without further ado, I’ll turn over the microphone to the 70th Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. (Applause and cheers.)

SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for those most gracious words, John. And thank you for your service and standing in the gap. You’ve done a remarkable job; the whole team has. I’ve had the chance to work alongside you as the CIA director when you were the acting secretary, and you have done this organization incredibly proud. America should be proud of you, and thank you for this amazing work. (Applause and cheers.)

So I think I have the record for the longest trip to the first day of work. (Laughter.) And I am humbled to be here. I tried to prepare myself for this moment, but to stand here and look at the most important diplomatic corps in the world is enormously humbling to me. I talked in my hearing about the fact that this nation is so exceptional and so incredibly blessed. And the facts that derive from that are that it also creates a responsibility, a duty for America all across the world. And I know for certain that America can’t execute that duty, can’t achieve its objectives absent you all, absent executing America’s foreign policy in every corner of the world with incredible vigor and incredible energy. And I am looking forward to helping you all achieve that. (Applause.)

My remarks today will be relatively brief. Tomorrow the President will be here to do my official swearing-in. I think much of the cabinet will be here as well. It’s an important day for the President’s first trip to this important place, and I’m looking forward to being there with many of you and having the honor to have the President of the United States do my formal swearing-in.

I then will, sometime either later this week or beginning of next, do more to develop my commander’s intent, what it is I hope to achieve with your help. I’ll speak to the entire work force, I’ll lay out for you my expectations and my hopes, and most importantly, share with you my leadership style. And this is very different. Like, one of the first rules is don’t talk down to people, right? (Laughter.) So I’ll speak to you all right up here, exactly.

But alongside that is that I feel like I know you. I’ve worked alongside you as a member of Congress when I traveled. I’ve had the chance to watch when I was traveling around the world and I would go into an embassy and I’d arrive late at night and there were the folks in the political section or the economic section toiling, doing great work on behalf of America.

So I have a great deal to learn about the State Department and how we perform our mission, but as people, I’m confident that I know who you are. I know that you came here. You chose to be a Foreign Service officer or a civil servant or to come work here in many other capacities and to do so because you’re patriots and great Americans and because you want to be an important part of America’s face to the world. My mission will be to lead you and allow you to do that, the very thing you came here to do. (Applause.)

I will get to as many parts of this organization as I can. I said in my testimony that I’ll spend as little time on the seventh floor – I think it’s the seventh floor, right? Yeah. (Laughter.) I’ll go up there in a minute. I’ll be – I’ll travel. I’m going to get out to USAID as quickly as I can to see their important part of our mission as well. I know that every task, every endeavor that each of you undertakes is a critical part of achieving that ultimate objective, which is to deliver President Trump and America’s foreign policy around the world, to be the diplomatic face that achieves the outcomes that America so desperately needs to achieve in the world.

I’ve told this story a couple of times, but it’s worth repeating: The best lesson I ever got was from a fellow named Sgt. 1st Class Petry. He was the first platoon sergeant in my first tank platoon when I was 22 or 23 years old. And I arrived there and he, when I hopped out of the jeep, he said, “Lieutenant, you’ll do well to just shut up for a while.” (Laughter.) And he – and actually, I think he meant that, but – (laughter) – but what I took him to be saying was that it’s important that we listen and learn, and I know that I have an enormous amount to listen to you about and to learn from you. I talked about getting back our swagger, and I’ll fill in what I mean by that, but it’s important. The United States diplomatic corps needs to be in every corner, every stretch of the world, executing missions on behalf of this country, and it is my humble, noble undertaking to help you achieve that.

So I look forward – (applause) – thank you. (Applause.) I look forward to meeting just as many of you as I can get a chance to do, to learning from just as many of you as I can, and to leading that team onto the field. I know that we will deliver for this President and for this country. Thank you. May the Good Lord bless each of you. I’ll see you all around the building. Thanks. (Applause.)

[End Transcript]

May 1 2018

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Discusses China Trade Visit…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 1, 2018 by

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses the ongoing trade initiatives with China ahead of the U.S. delegation departing later tonight.  Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative/Ambassador Robert Lighthizer, Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow and White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro are all heading to Beijing to meet with their Chinese counterparts.

Secretary Ross is like the Babe Ruth of trade-baseball. Wilburine has a way of taking complex issues pitched to him, and knocking them out of the ballpark with an extremely fast common sense bat.  He makes it look effortless.  Watch:

.

Two quick thoughts. First, I think this is the first time every member of Team America (Ross, Mnuchin, Lighthizer, Kudlow, Navarro) has unified into one specific set of trade negotiations. That helps understand the scale of importance of the China trade relationship.

Second, there’s no traveling parallel contingent consisting of outside government members/advisers from of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. This is a significant change from the past 30 years of Wall Street policy manipulation by the CoC. Many people may not be aware but until President Trump the U.S. government didn’t actually write the trade agreements.

For all prior administrations the actual negotiations and agreements were willingly sub-contracted out to U.S. Chamber of Commerce delegations. This is how the multinationals took control of trade policy and eventually the U.S. economy. CoC President Tom Donohue must be apoplectic now that he is facing an administration actually writing the trade agreements.

I cannot emphasize enough how much of a paradigm shift the President Trump trade approach is.  When you understand what was taking place before, you can see why those interests are frothing-at-the-mouth angry about team Trump.

There are trillions at stake.

Previous administrations allowed BIG LABOR and BIG BUSINESS to write all the agreements and rules.  In their backrooms they worked out the details.  Policy was willingly handed over to corrupt Wall Street interests and corrupt Labor Union leadership.

A recent point of reference was within the Obama administration.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce wrote the actual verbiage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP agreement.  Obviously the beneficiaries were those who the U.S. CoC supported; ie. Wall Street multinational corporations.  In return those multinationals give the U.S. CoC hundreds of millions in contributions (payoffs for policy).

In exchange for control over the trade policy, the U.S. CoC pay the politicians.  This is why the U.S. CoC is the biggest lobbyist (by far) in Washington DC.  In essence, for three decades all prior administrations were allowing Wall Street to write the trade agreements.

Now think about that.

In essence, by giving up control over our nation’s trade agreements, all previous administrations were giving away control over the U.S. economy to multinational corporations.

Understanding this former dynamic, is it a surprise why the middle-class was destroyed and Wall Street benefited?

Remember, there are TRILLIONS at stake.

President Trump took the atomic sledgehammer to this process and said NO MORE!

President Trump put the U.S. trade team together that actually makes the deals now. And those deals are independent of consideration for the corporate needs of any individual players, or groups of players, on Wall Street.

Ross, Mnuchin and Lighthizer et al, are only looking out for the U.S. best interests.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been cut out completely; and as a direct consequence Wall Street -and by extension their multinational corporations- no longer has any influence on U.S. trade agreements.

This is a massive economic paradigm shift that most people don’t comprehend.

Understand this dynamic and you understand the opposition to Trump.

Remember, all U.S. media are multinational corporations.

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May 1 2018

Trade Update: Wilbur Ross Joins China Delegation, Trump Extends EU, NAFTA Steel Tariff Exemption 30 Days…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on April 30, 2018 by

President Trump’s MAGAnomic team have announced a 30-day extension for the Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%) tariffs for the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

Also, after a prior agreement with South-Korea, the “KORUS” deal, team U.S.A. has also reached an agreement in principle with Australia, Argentina and Brazil which will be finalized in next 30 days.

Via Wall Street Journal – President Donald Trump has decided to postpone decisions about imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union and other U.S. allies until June 1, a senior administration official said.

In addition to announcing the delay, the White House is expected to say Monday evening that it has finalized a deal to exempt South Korea from the tariffs, mirroring details that have been previously released by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office.

The remaining decisions on tariffs will be decided later, the official said. A White House spokeswoman declined to comment.

The U.S. initially imposed world-wide tariffs of 25% on U.S. steel imports and 10% on aluminum in March, but it temporarily exempted several U.S. allies from the tariffs. Monday’s decisions extend that delay.  (read more)

Additionally, to showcase the importance previously outlined, the team has added ‘big timber’, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, to the trade delegation heading to China.

So the entire MAGAnomic “killers” team appears to be heading to Beijing.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Chairman of National Economic Council Larry Kudlow, WH Trade Adviser Peter Navarro and U.S. Ambassador to China, Terry Branstad.

[Side-Note: hopefully they take AF2]

This diplomatic and strategic geopolitical trade line-up further solidifies the importance of the trip.  As “dufrst” shared earlier:

NAFTA and the trade tariffs on steel and aluminum (major components of cars) are about credibility against China, Japan and the EU. The bulk of the US trade deficit comes from China, Japan, and the EU. China, Japan and the EU all exploit NAFTA to get around US trade barriers that should have balanced trade among these countries.

Trump has signaled that he wants trade renegotiated but the major trade entities- China, Japan and the EU- didn’t take him seriously until he slapped tariffs globally on steel and aluminum. That was a direct strike at their automobile industries that make up the bulk of the US trade deficit between the EU and Japan. The intellectual property tariffs got the attention of China because not only did Trump place them on China but he mobilized support in the EU and Japan for action on intellectual property theft.

So where does the North Korean (NK) negotiations come into play in all of this?

Aside from the possibility that the US sabotaged the last Korean nuclear tests, I believe this Korean peace initiative is more about Japan and South Korea than China. I believe Japan and South Korea will agree to more favorable terms with the US on trade pending the denuclearization and potential reunification of Korea. I believe Japan and Korea will be very grateful to the US when the prisoners are released and will find ways to buy more product (agricultural, energy, military and aerospace) from the US.

China is simply trying to stay on the good side of the US because the intellectual property tariffs are a significant threat to its future. Xi has imagined China dominating industries that primarily rely on intellectual property.

In addition, Xi is trying to build a major trade corridor to the EU to diversity his exports away from the US so that he’s not so dependent on the US but Trump is threatening to bite into the funds he will have to complete OBOR. So China is cooperating on Korea but Korea is not a chip it can bargain with anymore because Trump has already taken that away with the sabotage of the last Korean nuclear test.

Trump is a genius. He knows his leverage very well. He knows that any reduction in the trade deficit is a major win for the US. He is not looking for the immediate balance of the trade deficits with the EU, China and Japan (and Korea). He’s looking for key concessions that will enhance his legacy such as increasing NATO contributions by EU countries in exchange for smaller reduction of the trade deficit. Chinese ending their assault on US technology industries in exchange for a smaller reduction of trade deficit. Japan buying more US autos or opening more car plants in US for a smaller reduction of trade deficit and so on.

NAFTA is all about credibility. Canada and Mexico will agree to terms. Mexico will pay for the Wall and Trump will win his noble prize!

BTW, don’t think Russia escapes this equation or Iran. Trump has all of them wrapped up in this. For Russia, Trump will make EU buy even more American energy and will get EU to fully fund NATO. As we speak, Pompeo is in the Middle East to rally up an Arab force to replace US troops in Syria and Iraq (and pay!). This is not good for Russia. It guarantees Syria will be split unless Russia agrees to a political settlement that has Assad gone from Syria. A stronger NATO and a EU now buying even more US gas and oil means less money for Putin’s military in Ukraine and Syria. And there’s no outlet to China because Trump is putting the squeeze on Xi. Multidimensional chess?

Iran is now in trouble too. That Arab force plus Israel is ready to strike. Trump has put the squeeze on EU (steel/aluminum), China (intellectual prop), and Russia (energy). The Iran deal will be redone and tougher sanctions will be enacted by US and EU for any violations of new terms. And military actions looms over their heads just as it did over North Korea. And BTW, the end of the NK nuclear program is a major blow for Iran since it essentially was continuing work on nukes through NK (Pakistan needs to be watched but it seems Trump is on top of them too).

That Trump has been able to wield this much power in so short of a time is mind blowing. If he’s able to pull all of this off in two years, he’ll already be a top 5 POTUS! MAGA!!

(LINK)

May 1 2018

Poll: Reuters/IPSOS Survey Shows Millennial Support For Democrats Dropped Nine Percent Since 2016…


Re-Posted on The Conservative Tree House on April 30, 2018 by

In an interesting survey of over 16,000 millennial respondents (graphic here) via  Reuters-IPSOS the narrative of a midterm ‘blue wave” evaporates.

According to the large-sample polling, support for Democrats has dropped from 55% in 2016 to 46% now.  That’s a significant decline over 9% from prior surveys, and could be a strong indication the current favored narrative amid DNC media is entirely false.

(Reuters) MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) – Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll.

The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.

That presents a potential problem for Democrats who have come to count on millennials as a core constituency – and will need all the loyalty they can get to achieve a net gain of 23 seats to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

Young voters represent an opportunity and a risk for both parties, said Donald Green, a political science professor at Columbia University in New York City.

“They’re not as wedded to one party,” Green said. “They’re easier to convince than, say, your 50- or 60-year-olds who don’t really change their minds very often.”

Terry Hood, 34, an African-American who works at a Dollar General store in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and took this year’s poll, said he voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

But he will consider a Republican for Congress because he believes the party is making it easier to find jobs and he applauds the recent Republican-led tax cut.

“It sounds strange to me to say this about the Republicans, but they’re helping with even the small things,” Hood said in a phone interview. “They’re taking less taxes out of my paycheck. I notice that.”  (read more)

This is especially bad news for the DNC considering the new era of “Generation Z” is right on the heels of the millennials and Gen-Z is exponentially more in alignment with the MAGA movement as a counter-culture.   More winning…

May 1 2018

South Korea President Moon Jae-in: “President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on April 30, 2018 by

‘Splodey Head Alert !!…

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean President Moon Jae-in said U.S. President Donald Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the standoff with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program, a South Korean official said on Monday.

“President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace,” Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries, according to a presidential Blue House official who briefed media.

Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday pledged at a summit to end hostilities between their countries and work toward the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula.

Trump is preparing for his own summit with Kim, which he said would take place in the next three to four weeks.

The Trump administration has led a global effort to impose ever stricter sanctions on North Korea and the U.S. president exchanged bellicose threats with Kim in the past year over North Korea’s development of nuclear missiles capable of reaching the United States.

In January, Moon said Trump “deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks. It could be a resulting work of the U.S.-led sanctions and pressure”.

Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize just months into his presidency, an award many thought was premature, given that he had little to show for his peace efforts beyond rhetoric.

Even Obama said he was surprised and by the time he collected the prize in Oslo at the end of that year, he had ordered the tripling of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. (read more)

“Complicated business folks… complicated business”...

[Via Gunny66] Our President:

He’s a builder at heart. He speaks to people so that they understand. You can’t speak to construction workers like you are in a tea room / meeting room, with platitudes and statements where they are left with a blank look saying and thinking…..Huh….?

And not just construction workers. His business required him to speak to the truck drivers, the cooks, the designers, the maids, taxi cab drivers, golfers…the entire gamut of individuals who were involved in building his empire. He had to understand their problems and their needs in order to “build” quality hotels and golf courses. And he had to talk to them in the way they understood…talk like us…Americans..

And, he was from Queens….where there is a language all it’s own…Queens…and even from where I’m from…where you gave everyone a name…everyone…you wore glasses you were “four eyes”, you were overweight, you were “Wimpy”, you were smart you were Professor” if you were Polish you were Ski….and if you lied your were Lyin, or Crooked, or Lazy, you were Lazy, or whatever….it comes natural to him..it is were he is from.

And he did not only learn from speaking with other people but by doing himself. His father taught him to get down with them, get down with the workers, and do it himself. As he has stated. His father had him counting nails, driving fork lifts, cooking meals.

And then as he grew to be a billionaire, he was in the meetings, the parties, the society of the high minded and powerful. He heard their conversations…their plans for the world…in the back rooms…he heard the names of the powerful who controled everything. all he had to do was listen…

And he did not like what he heard…

So here we are …with a President who is one of us…did you see any of the video today of him speaking with the Olympians who won medals? Just touched your heart…he gave almost everyone one of them a chance to speak and say whatever they wanted. Joked with them like one of the guys and made them all feel special…from Bronze to Gold.

You can truly say he is one of us. The left hates him because he is just one of us…and…

He saved us…..he saved us all…….We should thank God every moment….

And to be quite honest, he is now also saving the world one country at a time….

God Bless our President and his family.

(LINK)

May 1 2018

Bernie Proposed Everyone Gets a Job & Free Healthcare


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted May 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

You really have to wonder just when will these people stop with the promises of robbing the rich to hand out free everything to everyone else. Bernie Sanders wants to introduce a plan to guarantee everyone a job at $15 an hour. He is clueless that if you raise wages, people spend more and prices rise and will NOT remain the same. You end up back where you started. To begin with, not everyone wants a job. There are plenty of people who have no problem living off of welfare. But he also wants to guarantee healthcare to everyone. That may be a wonderful idea, but you MUST first nationalize all hospitals and then doctors must become government employees. You have to lower the wages of doctors and you have to eliminate the lawsuits or specify how much you will be paid for what injury.

Without a comprehensive structural reform, all these proposals are absolutely worthless and would bankrupt the entire system as is. We simply have to let it burn down to the ground and start from scratch. Healthcare and education will ONLY become affordable when people cannot get insurance and to stay in business, prices will have to drop.

May 1 2018

CURIOSITY that is the key to Everything


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted May 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT:

Sorry, the question being, how could it or could it be possible for, people first-time buyers, and foreign buyers to all happily own houses while supporting growth and the economy. I hope one day and highly think plausible in thousands of years time u will be looked back on as our generations Socrates , only this time hopefully all your information will be saved a spread for education, and s new renaissance, what with information storage, internet, and common sense must prevail common sense from understanding this education.

All the very best will get to one of those conferences, one day enjoy.

Ps best education comes from grieving I reckon sorry for your loss, she’ll be even prouder, all the very best and to your health sir and dedicated staff.

 

 

REPLY: We are all on a journey through this life to gain knowledge. If you do not assume you know everything, then you keep your mind open and you actually learn at all ages. There was a professor at Princeton University who knew Einstein. He would tell me that I reminded him of Albert. I was totally surprised for I certainly did not put myself in his category. I asked how was that possible? He explained to me that it was not the subject matter, but I was always curious and wanted to understand how things worked and why.

It was that CURIOSITY that drove me to put together the world monetary system from coins. It was the ONLY way to definitively understand HOW empires, nations, and city-states rose and fell. The daunting question was always: HOW did Rome fall? Was it like a gradual decline as a 747 plane coming in a for a landing or was it abrupt appearing like a crash out of nowhere?

When I gathered the coins and mapped out both the money supply by studying the dies and the metal content, then and only then was it possible to answer that question. That was the CURIOSITY that reminded the professor of Einstein. It is the pursuit of knowledge that is our purpose in life. It is all we leave behind to prove we even existed. The greatest obstacles to advancing human society are bias, prejudice, and self-interest.

The key to everything is CURIOSITY. If we do not try to figure out how everything works without ASSUMING we know everything so why bother, we just may learn something. Therein lies the seeds to the advancement of human society. Here is a passage from the Last Lion by William Manchester. It really explains what a true genius is. We wrongly assume that such a person just knows everything like an encyclopedia. The true genius is someone who challenges the prevailing school of thought and asks WHY?

This is what Manchester wrote on the subject about genius and Winston Churchill. It is something that is important and we should keep this in mind with our children.

“Samuel Butler defined genius as “a supreme capacity for getting its possessors into trouble of all kinds,” and it is ironic that geniuses are likeliest to be misunderstood in classrooms. Studies at the University of Chicago and the University of Minnesota have found that teachers smile on children with high IQs and frown upon those with creative minds. Intelligent but uncreative students accept conformity, never rebel, and complete their assignments with dispatch and to perfection. The creative child, on the other hand, is manipulative, imaginative, and intuitive. He is likely to harass the teacher. He is regarded as wild, naughty, silly, undependable, lacking in seriousness or even promise. His behavior is distracting; he doesn’t seem to be trying; he gives unique answers to banal questions, touching off laughter among the other children. E. Paul Tor-rance of Minnesota found that 70 percent of pupils rated high in creativ¬ity were rejected by teachers picking a special class for the intellectually gifted. The Goertzels concluded that a Stanford study of genius, under which teachers selected bright children, would have excluded Churchill, Edison, Picasso, and Mark Twain.”

id/pages 158-159

This is also why A students work for C students, and B students work for the government. Critical thinking is the key to everything and it is CURIOSITY that drives the advancement of society. Sadly, the number of people who question their immediate surroundings takes place in less than 10% of the population. People who often write asking what if everyone followed Socrates, the answer is rather simple – that would never happen. It is like saying what if 100% of the people voted for Democrat/Labor or Republican/Conservative?

It is CURIOSITY that is the key to everything