Hurricane Nicole Expected to Impact Southeast, Southcentral Coast and Central Florida Overnight


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 9, 2022 | Sundance

Hurricane conditions are expected from Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line along the coast in Florida tonight.  However, do not focus only on the center of the storm. Hurricane winds extend 25 miles from center, tropical storm winds 400+ miles from center, and massive rain are anticipated over central Florida with significant flooding north of Lake O.  Residents along coastal and inland waterways should be fully prepared for this storm.  Overnight conditions will deteriorate rapidly.

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 78.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes landfall along the Florida east coast. Nicole is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon. (more)

Many of us have spent the past 36 hrs preparing for this storm; however, my gut is telling me many are not ready for the potential flooding from Nicole.   Toolboxes and supplies are loaded, and relief/recovery supplies staged south of Lake-O are prepared to move north as needed.

Now, is when the southeast and southcentral east coast needs to hunker down in safe, secure and hardened structures away from the water.

Power is likely to be lost along the coastal and near coastal areas of Florida as well as central Florida north of Lake-O.  Stay inside during the storm passing and pay attention to local officials for instructions related to road closures and transit corridors.

East coast of Florida Treepers, if you find yourself in an emergency situation, feel free to reach out in the comment section or email directly.

Keep a good thought, all will be okay.

I know it is unnerving when these storms move in at night, but everything will be okay.  Nicole will hopefully pass through quickly, but the rain, ground saturation and potential for flooding may be problematic for several days.

Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary.  There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.   The sounds are scary. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness. Trees will bend and break; the sounds are dramatic.

If you are near the eyewall, there’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget.  It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar.  It is very unique sound in depth and weight.  Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight.  Stay clear of windows and doors, and within an interior room of the house or apartment if possible.

That scary roar sounds like it won’t ever quit…. it will… eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.

A hurricane wind, even a moderate one, is a constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms. Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts, builds and stays; sometimes for hours.  Relentless, it just won’t let up.  And then, depending on Nicole’s irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, it will stop.

Judging by the forward speed the hurricane force winds will likely last around 2 hours before she lets up.

Meanwhile, tomorrow you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your messed up neighborhood. It will all be cattywampus. Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.

I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e. Stay away from powerlines.

Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours.  Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and relief trucks.

Remember, when it is safe to drive, if the power is out – every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION.  Even the major intersections.

You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit.  You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention.  Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.

Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood.  Don’t quit.  Recovery is a process.  Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days or weeks. Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.

Keep a good thought.  Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.

It might suck a little bit, but it will be okay. Promise.

You got this!

Maricopa County Arizona Has Election Vote Counting and Tabulation Issues Again


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 8, 2022 | Sundance

The counties with ballot counting issues remain consistent over years until someone steps in and fixes the root cause of the problem, democrat election officials.  Nothing destroys election integrity faster than county election problems that repeat in the exact same precincts year after year.

Unfortunately, Maricopa County, Arizona, is one of those regional areas with major election integrity problems each voting cycle, this midterm 2022 election is no different.

According to multiple reports Maricopa County ballot tabulation machines are not working again.  Approximately 20% of the ballot tabulation machines in Maricopa County are not working which is causing delays, frustration and voter concern over the integrity of the election.  Voters have been told to leave their ballots in a box for tabulation later at a central location.  Many voters are not willing to ‘trust’ the process.

ARIZONA – Vote-counting machines weren’t working in about 20% of polling sites in Maricopa County, Arizona, as Election Day voting in the midterms began, county officials said.

The Maricopa County Recorder’s Officer said technicians were called to fix the tabulator machines that weren’t working, Fox10’s TV station in Phoenix reported. It’s not clear how many of the machines were malfunctioning in the state’s most populous county.

“About 20% of the locations out there where there’s an issue with the tabulator … they try and run (completed ballots) through the tabulator, and they’re not going through,” Maricopa County Board of Supervisors chairman Bill Gates said in a video posted on Facebook. Long lines of voters were appearing throughout the county as officials tried to reassure people that all votes would be counted. (read more)

STAY IN LINE and VOTE!

Study finds CO2 lags Temperature


Browse:Home/2022/November/07/New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux

New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux

By Kenneth Richard on 7. November 2022

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Annual carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) change rates lag behind changes in sea ice extent by 7 months and 5 months, respectively. This robust correlation is consistent with the conclusion that CO2 (and CH4) changes are responsive to temperature, not the other way around.

It is commonly believed that the annual “squiggle” of the Mauna Loa CO2 cycle variations are driven by hemispheric seasonal contrasts in terrestrial photosynthesis.

But scientists (Hambler and Henderson, 2022) instead find it is variation high latitude temperatures affecting sea ice extent changes that dominate as drivers of the CO2 (and methane) annual fluxes, not photosynthesis.

They affirm temperature (T) changes lead CO2 change rates by about 7-10 months, suggesting the causality direction is T→CO2, and not CO2→T.

Temperature also drives sea ice peak melt vs. accumulation rates. This cause-effect directionality can also be clearly seen in analyses of sea ice flux vs. annual CO2 rate changes.

“The phase relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide has been examined to help elucidate the possible direction of causality and the lags we find between timeseries are consistent with carbon dioxide being the response variable.”
“Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere.”
Image Source: Hambler and Henderson, 2022

Head’s Up, STS Nicole Anticipated to Be Hurricane as it Approaches Florida Southeast Coastline – All Coastal Areas, Including GA, Be Advised


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 7, 2022 

There are only two words that come to mind as I write this notice from the Ian impact zone, “mercy” and “uncle.”  Prayers.

STS Nicole is anticipated to become a Cat-1 Hurricane as it approaches the southeast coast of Florida late Wednesday night. A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Northeast Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach. Residents along the Florida east coast should watch for updates [Hurricane Center Link].

If you are on the east coast of Florida, you should begin preparations today and tomorrow for the potential of high winds, power outages, coastal storm surge and inland flooding.  Georgia and South Carolina should also keep an eye on this.

Additionally, on the other side of the state, while Nicole is not anticipated to be a strong hurricane and will hopefully lose strength quickly as it moves over land, any tropical storm winds and rain along the southwest Florida areas (SWFL) previously impacted by Ian could be very troublesome.  Everything is tenuously held together in SWFL and there is massive debris and structural instability present as recovery efforts continue.  This is not good.

(NHC) – At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night. (more)

There is no such thing as an “easy hurricane,” only various degrees of deadly.

All coastal residents are urged to pay close attention to local officials for evacuation orders.  Each locality is different, each coastal locality has a zone of potential flooding and storm surge.  As a general rule, hunker down from wind – but evacuate from water.

Right now, you are in control.  Do not be alarmed – but take every preventative measure your individual situation needs.  Work your hurricane plan and stay focused on what you do control.  Proactive planning prevents piss-poor performance. Work the plan, step by step and focus on what is in front of you.  Ignore the dark imaginings and turn off the national media.  Pay attention to your local officials and local media.

Do your laundry. Sanitize and stage your water storage.  Inventory your supplies.  Organize your tools.  Fill your freezer with water jugs to take up room and freeze.  Test your generator. Stage your extension cords. Stage your battery powered devices. Test your weather radio. Take small steps to prepare.  Secure your home. You are in full control.

The #1 priority is to keep calm. Keep stable.  If other people around you are panicked, do not let it impact your plan.  Stay focused. Stay organized. Stay in control.  I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for everyone around you and your family.

Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets.  Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Everything is replaceable, except you and your family.  We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.

Right now, you are in control.  Have a solid plan, work that plan – stay busy, and don’t get caught up in the hysteria.  Try to avoid national media hype. Stay updated via your local news stations. Reach out to your neighbors; touch-base and check to see if they are okay or need anything.  Community restoration begins before the storm arrives. Look out for each-other.

Regarding any evacuation plan, please pay attention to your local officials who will be coordinating with state Dept. of Transportation.  As the path and impact zone of the storm becomes more predictable your local officials will alert to best route(s) for evacuation.  For those in the cone of uncertainty; remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead.

DAY ONE (Today)

  • Determine Your Risk
  • Make a Written Plan
  • Develop an Evacuation Plan
  • Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
  • Withdraw cash based on plan/need.
  • Get gas and storm supplies

DAY TWO (Tue)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Assemble and purchase any missing Hurricane Supplies
  • Contact Insurance Company – Updates
  • Secure Important Papers.
  • Update/upload your phone data.
  • Strengthen and Secure Your Home
  • Discuss Evacuation Decision with your Family.
  • Fill freezer with 3/4 full water jugs.

DAY THREE (Wed)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update
  • Finish last minute preparation
  • Plan for a minimum of THREE DAYS without power
  • Assist Your Neighbors
  • If Needed – Evacuate Your Family

.

Communication is important.  Update your friends and family contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.

Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.

Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status.  Fill car with gasoline. Review prescriptions, refill if needed.

Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storm’s path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.

Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.

One possible proactive measure is to make a hotel reservation further inland that you would consider evacuating to.  Follow updates of the storms’ progress; make reservations if determined; you can always cancel if not needed.  It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance.  Being proactive reduces stress.  Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go.   Trust me, it’s worth it.  Protect your family.

If you are in the SWFL region where Hurricane Ian cleanup and recovery is still underway, just do the best you can to keep the debris in check as potential tropical storm force winds will be a major pain in the a**!  Heavy sigh::spit::

Cooperate or perish – U.N. chief tells COP27


Reuters Published originally on Rumble on November 7, 2022

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres told leaders gathered at the start of the COP27 summit in Egypt on Monday (November 7) they face a stark choice: work together now to cut emissions or condemn future generations to climate catastrophe.