Emerging Markets & Political Crisis Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

China has asked the Fed to please not raise rates. This has confused many to wonder when China would be asking the Fed not to raise rates. The real reason is the crisis we have in emerging markets and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Emerging Markets are one of the main victims of tightening US monetary policy. Emerging Markets have splurged by issuing more than $3 trillion dollars in US dollar-denominated debt and that was going into 2019 -(private and public combined). The Federal Reserve’s post-pandemic policy to respond to inflation with higher rates is exposing the vulnerabilities in emerging markets with high private external debt, and that includes China.

In order to sell the debt to the West, it has been a standard practice for more than 100 years to issue debt in the currency in which you seek to raise capital. Before World War I, the British pound was the reserve currency of the world and Britain was the financial capital of the world. Hence, we find bonds from around the world, including public and private, issued in British pounds. Today, the emerging markets have issued debt in dollars. They have taken on the risk of both US interest rates as well as the value of the dollar.

So far, China has benefited whereby provinces and companies that issued debt in dollars have seen at least a 15% profit as the dollar has declined against the yuan thanks to the stupid COVID policies that have drastically harmed the global economy.

Of course, the Euro has been under tremendous selling pressure as they have embraced Schwab’s Great Reset and have been deliberately crushing their economy pushing for a Green New World Order decades before they have any replacement for fossil fuels.

The Fed’s position of raising interest rates to fight inflation is a classic Keynesian Textbook, but the problem is Keynesian Economics has utterly failed. Jenet Yellen, the latest to join the Schwab Marxist agenda, has come out and announced that the Fed will do its best to reduce inflation their COVID policies created, and they have little choice with Biden’s polls collapsing.  The public always blames or credits the president for the economic trends and this time the Democrats live in fear that they will be thrown out of office. The January 6th Investigation will desperately try to criminally charge Trump and they think this will save their majority. This is only fulfilling the Panic Cycle our computer projected for the 2022 elections and again in 2024.

So the Fed is not likely to lower rates to help emerging markets. It will be far worse if the dollar starts to rise after February. That will cause a lot of economic problems throughout the emerging markets.

Tucker Carlson Asks Why Does Washington DC Want a War with Russia Over Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 165 Comments

Ukraine is a hot mess and has been ever since the Obama administration stuck their fingers into the internal affairs of the country.  In recent days, the DC administrative state and their corporate stenographers in media have been promoting a position that the U.S. needs to go to war with Russia in defense of Ukraine.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson asks why.  Why does the DC beltway and the crew behind Joe Biden want to create a war with Russia over a nation state that really doesn’t impact U.S. interests?  WATCH:

United Nations and World Bank Predict Increased Global Starvation Due to Fertilizer and Farm Costs


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 170 Comments

It’s easy to ignore the United Nations and World Bank pontificators as Über-leftists and global climate change fanatics.  However, of value to us ordinary peeps, is a recognition that U.N and WB outlooks permeate the World Economic Forum and Davos groups.

The multinational corporations and quasi-governmental entities in/around the World Economic Forum (WEF) are the people who call themselves “elites” and shape global policy.  As a result, when the U.N. and Word Bank start talking about widespread global famine as a result of energy policy impacts to the farming industry, specifically natural gas costs and fertilizer resulting in lower crop yields, it is worth paying attention.

We have already discussed the U.S. impact from higher fertilizer costs HERE.   As a nation we are blessed and fortunate to be living on land that is naturally healthy and fertile enough to grow food in abundance.   However, if our crop yields drop our export ability diminishes.  The world relies on the U.S. as a food basket.  You might have recently heard about foreign countries buying up U.S. farmland? Well….

In this outline from the Wall Street Journal, they note those increased costs mean less crops in all continents especially the third world regions.  That can be catastrophic for nations that already have food insecurity issues.

(Via Wall Street Journal) Christina Ribeiro do Valle, who comes from a long line of coffee growers in Brazil, is this year paying three times what she paid last year for the fertilizer she needs. Coupled with a recent drought that hit her crop hard, it means Ms. do Valle, 75, will produce a fraction of her Ribeiro do Valle brand of coffee, some of which is exported.

There is also a shortage of fertilizer. “This year, you pay, then put your name on a waiting list, and the supplier delivers it when he has it,” she said.

[…] Farmers in the U.S. are also feeling the pinch, with some shifting their planting plans. But the impact is expected to be worse in developing countries where smallholders have limited access to bank loans and can’t pay up front for expensive fertilizer.

Fertilizer demand in sub-Saharan Africa could fall 30% in 2022, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a global nonprofit organization. That would translate to 30 million metric tons less food produced, which the center says is equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people.

“Lower fertilizer use will inevitably weigh on food production and quality, affecting food availability, rural incomes and the livelihoods of the poor,” said Josef Schmidhuber, deputy director of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s trade and markets division.

As the pandemic enters year three, more households are having to cut down on the quantity and quality of food they consume, the World Bank said in a note last month, noting that high fertilizer prices were adding to costs. Around 2.4 billion people lacked access to adequate food in 2020, up 320 million from the year before, it said. Inflation rose in about 80% of emerging-market economies last year, with roughly a third seeing double-digit food inflation, according to the World Bank.

Diammonium phosphate, or DAP, a commonly used phosphate fertilizer, cost $745 per metric ton in December—more than double its 2020 average price. December prices for Eastern European urea, a widely exported nitrogen fertilizer, were nearly four times the 2020 average.

[…] Tony Will, chief executive of CF Industries Holdings Inc., a leading nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer based in Deerfield, Ill., said he expected lower fertilization levels this year to result in reduced agricultural yields. The company has only reopened one of the two U.K. plants it closed in September, citing high natural-gas prices and low availability of truck drivers. Plants in North America, where gas prices are lower, are running at maximum capacity, Mr. Will said.

Industry experts say European production is likely to be constrained as long as natural-gas prices remain high there, with shortages in parts of the developing world amplified by trade restrictions in other major fertilizer exporters. (read more)

Leftism has consequences.  Chase the surfacing issue back to its origin, and you will find the climate change agenda at the heart of changes in energy policy.  The changes in energy policy, as noted above, have consequences like higher prices.  Those higher prices for natural gas, oil, fuel, etc mean higher prices for fertilizer… which leads to less food.

Chasing the climate change agenda actually kills people.  Then again, from the perspective of the climate change cult, less people are not a bad thing.

As we have shared…. “The absence of food will most certainly change things.

GO DEEP ]

On Track


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 159 Comments

What they envision (top) and where they are (bottom).

Right on track…

Prescient.

Biden Administration Confirms Canadian and Mexican Truck Drivers Must Show Vaccination Passport Beginning Tomorrow


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 348 Comments

The preparation window has closed.

Given the destabilized and tenuous nature of the current supply chain, many people wondered if the Biden administration would actually be stupid enough to follow through with a truck driver vaccination mandate.  The answer is yes.  Please conduct yourselves accordingly.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) updated their guidance yesterday [LINK HERE] and put a hard date of tomorrow, January 22nd, for the trucker vaccine mandate at all border crossings and ferry terminals.   Canada put the vaccine mandate into effect last week, January 15th.

[Dept. of Homeland Security] – [..]  “Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-U.S. individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination,” said Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas. “These updated travel requirements reflect the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to protecting public health while safely facilitating the cross-border trade and travel that is critical to our economy.”

These changes – which were first announced in October 2021 and made in consultation with the White House and several federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – will align public health measures that govern land travel with those that govern incoming international air travel.

Non-U.S. individuals traveling to the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals, whether for essential or non-essential reasons, must:

  • verbally attest to their COVID-19 vaccination status;
  • provide proof of a CDC-approved COVID-19 vaccination, as outlined on the CDC website;
  • present a valid Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI)-compliant document, such as a valid passport, Trusted Traveler Program card, or Enhanced Tribal Card; and,
  • be prepared to present any other relevant documents requested by a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officer during a border inspection.

COVID-19 testing is not required for entry via a land port of entry or ferry terminal.

Although these new vaccination requirements do not apply to U.S. citizens, Lawful Permanent Residents, or U.S. nationals, all travelers are reminded to bring a WHTI-compliant document when re-entering the United States.  (more)

Approximately 50% of U.S. Truck Drivers are unvaccinated, they can no longer enter Canada.  Starting tomorrow, Canadian and Mexican truck drivers must be vaccinated, or they will not be able to enter the U.S.

Land shipments of fresh fruits and vegetables into Canada are immediately impacted.  Land shipments of fresh fruits and vegetables into the U.S. from Mexico are impacted starting tomorrow.  In addition to agriculture, lumber and auto-parts are likely to face significant impact.

CANADA – […] Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, at a news conference in Calgary, urged the government to extend an exemption that had been in place for truckers since the start of the pandemic.

Kenney made his request on the same day the United States confirmed its own vaccine border mandate for truckers would start on Saturday. Canada’s has been in place since Jan. 15.

“Common sense tells us that we are at the peak of supply chain constraints across North America, around the world, huge inflation,” Kenney said.

This is not the moment “to lose potentially thousands of truckers on our roads, bringing groceries up from the US and who knows maybe (COVID) rapid test kits as well,” he said.

As many as 32,000, or 20 per cent, of the 160,000 Canadian and American cross-border truck drivers may be taken off the roads by the mandate, the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA) estimates. The industry was short some 18,000 drivers even before the mandate, CTA said. (read more)

The bottom line is both shortages and higher prices.  Canada will feel it the worst; however, U.S. stores will feel it also.  The inflation this will drive will be on top of existing price pressure.  We have been warning since October, prices will increase, and shortages will be impactful.

The retail food stores have been reflecting the majority of the price increase from government COVID policy.  This vaccine mandate will make those price increases more as transportation costs will increase again.   However, the second route for fresh food delivery, “food away from home“, will suffer the majority of this price increase.  Restaurants, hotels, cafeterias, bars and institutional settings (hospitals, nursing homes, etc.) will see significant increases in their food costs.

A perfect storm has been created by policy.

Energy policy has driven up oil, fuel, packaging and gas prices.  Transportation costs have skyrocketed. Emission regulations have driven up port costs and delayed transportation fracturing the supply chain.  Vaccine mandates have hit the manufacturing and processing sectors.  Legislative policy and COVID spending have artificially inflated the economy.  Monetary policy has devalued the dollar and driven even higher inflation.

A tenuous economy cannot take these self-inflicted wounds…. and it’s about to get worse.

Into this hurricane of stagflation, the fed is going to raise interest rates.  The stock market could lose half its inflated value.  The NASDAQ is already responding to the storm clouds.  Employment is going to start getting really sketchy.  Congress will eventually announce their remedy, which will be more spending – and the dollar gets worse.

All of this was avoidable.

None of this is caused by COVID-19.

All of this is caused by Joe Biden’s economic, financial, monetary and legislative policy.

The people behind Joe Biden are laughing….

Biden has no idea.

CDC Director States Change to Definition of Fully Vaccinated Likely to Change Soon, Must Be Boosted


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 217 Comments

The White House COVID manipulation team held a presser today [Full Video Here] highlighting the current situation with COVID-19 and their political perspectives on the Omicron variant.

Within the discussion, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky noted the CDC is about to change the definition of “fully vaccinated” to include a mandated booster shot.  WATCH:

Judge Enjoins SCOTUS Decision, Issues Nationwide Injunction Against Vaccine Mandate for Federal Workers and Contractors


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 230 Comments

Earlier today a federal judge enjoined the Supreme Court decision against a federal mandate for private companies and expanded a nationwide injunction against the federal mandate for federal employees and contractors.

WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. judge in Texas issued a nationwide injunction on Friday barring the federal government from enforcing President Joe Biden’s requirement that federal workers without qualifying medical or religious exemptions be vaccinated for COVID-19.

Judge Jeffrey Brown, who was appointed to the District Court for the Southern District of Texas by then-President Donald Trump, ruled that opponents of Biden’s vaccination mandate for federal employees were likely to succeed at trial and blocked the government from enforcing the requirement.

Biden announced in September that more than 3.5 million federal workers were required to undergo vaccination, with no option to get regularly tested instead, unless they secured approved medical or religious exemptions. The requirement kicked in this past November, and White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday that 98% of federal workers are vaccinated.

“We are confident in our legal authority here,” she added.

Those out of compliance with the policy were referred to counseling and could be terminated under an executive order signed by Biden.

Brown wrote that at issue was whether the president “can, with the stroke of a pen and without the input of Congress, require millions of federal employees to undergo a medical procedure as a condition of their employment.” He added, “That, under the current state of the law as just recently expressed by the Supreme Court, is a bridge too far.”

The Justice Department said it would appeal the ruling. (more)

New York Governor Kathy Hochul Equates Masks in School to Children Wearing Shoes, They’ll Get Used to It


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 267 Comments

New York Governor Kathy Hochul is a state leader with few redeeming qualities.  A detached elitist-minded governor who is very easy to dislike.

During her press conference today, Governor Hochul was questioned repeatedly about the state mask mandate for kids in school.  After several justifications, she encapsulated her refusal to remove the mask mandate by saying her own kids didn’t like wearing sneakers at first, but they got used to it.  Ergo, New York students will get used to wearing masks.  WATCH (Prompted):

Anyone who doesn’t realize the massive impact on students and kids created by this ridiculous COVID fear and mandates is, at this point in history, oblivious to the outcomes.  Government officials, state officials, education officials, teachers’ unions and the medical establishment have destroyed the lives of young people.  Key word “DESTROYED”.

It is going to take a long time, if ever, for our young people to recover from the selfish and insufferable damage put upon them by dictators like Governor Kathy Hochul of New York.  An eloquent and heartbreaking counterpoint is provided below.

The Manufacturing of a Mass Psychosis – Can Sanity Return to an Insane World?


Posted originally on the Academy of Ideas on April 24,2021

The Creation of Fauciism!


Fauci contemplating what he has done

A band new system of governance has been created over the past two years, as the pandemic of SARS-COV-2 ravaged the world; and I’ll call this new system Fauciism, What follows next is the logic for creating this new word.

Starting long before the emergence of the VOVID-19 virus in Wuhan China in November/December 2019 Anthony Fauci MD was hard at work plotting his new idea on Technocratic rule over the masses. For those not familiar of the Technocratic system one must go back to the 1920’s in America and you will find a movement associated with Columbia University in New York city, that took hold after the 1929 mark crash. The movement was centered in the principle of the best and the brightest meaning scientists and engineers should be the ones to rule the world. The goal was to optimize economics to the highest possible efficiency.

Patrick M. Woods in his book Technocracy Rising gives an excellent summary of the attempted takeover of the entire world by those that believe they were destined to rule us all. This is a very real movement and that book is a must read as it connects a lot of dots. So what we have in Anthony Fauci is the use of medical technology by him to create fear that can then be used to control the masses.

Robert F, Kennedy Jr. has written a definitive book on the evils that Anthony Fauci has done called The Real Anthony Fauci and after the first chapter you will understand why I am writing this.

The process is called Mass Psychosis in which a large segment of a society is conditioned by the use of fear e.g. the COVID-19 and the exaggerated high probability that you will die if you catch it. To avoid dying the citizens are told that they must do certain things. That results in a Totalitarianism form of government. This process was used to great success by Hitler and Stalin and resulted in WW II. There are three books that should be read; the first is The Origins of Totalitarianism by Hannah Arendt, the second in The Gulag Archipelago Vol I by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and the third is Obedience to Authority by Stanley Milgram.

If you read these books, you will understand exactly what is happening in Western civilization today. However, it’s hard to read all of the Gulag as what is described is unpleasant so only read what you can take. The point is that unless we break free of the fear the Gulag explains how in will end.

Fauci is not the one funding this abomination that honor belongs to Bill Gates. And the other one that takes advantage of the fear is Klaus Schwab the creator of the World Economic Forum (WEF) that wants to rule the world. But neither Gate nor Schwab could have pulled this off without Fauci so he is the one that must be given the credit for creating this new system of the tyranny of the Medical system hence forth Fauciism. This system of Fauci is responsible for killing between 70% and 80% of the COVID worldwide deaths and since those deaths aren’t over, he could easily be the holder of the world record in a few more years. The following figures were taken from Our World Data (Oxford University) on January 21, 2022, using 75% preventable. Note: the 70% & 80% come from Kennedy, Dr. Malone and others.

As of January 20, 2022 there were 860,247 COVID Deaths in the US and of that total 645,185 were preventable.

As of January 20, 2022 there were 5,548,704 COVID Deaths in the world and of that total 4,161,528 were preventable.

Fauci is clearly responsible for single handily killing, as of January 21, 2022 (the table is updated daily) 4,161,528 people. Granted others participated in this carnage, but without Fauci, none of this would have been possible so these deaths are 100% on him.

The reason this is true is because he funded and/or directed the “Gain of Function” project and he actively blocked the use of prophylactics for early treatment. That was done so that the mRNA experimental genetic drug could be used. If he had allowed that e.g. Ivermectin, along with a few other prophylactics, be used none of (or most of them) those people would not have died. However the mRNA experimental genetic drug would not have been allowed to be used. So Fauci did this for money for himself and his friends despite the Hippocratic oath that he took.