Exclusive interview with Martin A. Armstrong by Carlo Alberto Amen, Piero Messina and Lorenzo Maria Pacini.
Economist Martin Armstrong speaks again with SouthFront. In the interview he gave, Armstrong offers some insights into the main issues on the geopolitical and economic agenda. Armstrong’s reflections are based on the interpretative model of economic cycles, the Socrates model. The analysis of economic cycles – according to the model developed by Armstrong – indicates a collapse of Western political systems (the end of democracies) in the coming years. The target set by the economist is 2032, but day after day, citizens of Western communities will be faced with a growing squeeze on subjective and economic freedom. Each evaluation factor is directly linked to the model. The crisis of Western democracies is a historical forecast resulting from the exponential growth of state public debts (which will never be repaid). Looking at what is happening to the markets, Armstrong explains that the value of Gold will continue to grow (precisely due to the weakening of Western economies).
Posted Posted originally on CTH on Mar 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Can you give any details as to how you knew Zelensky was trying to embarrass Trump in front of the world media?
EY
ANSWER: All I can say is that I was told a few days ahead that Zelensky had a plan. About five days before, he demanded that he travel to the White House for a public meeting. Zelensky assumed he could lecture Trump, and since the media is all anti-Trump, he would force the United States into continuing to fund his never-ending war. I’m sure if I knew the scheme, Trump had to have known, and he was prepared for Zeleinsky. This is Trump – not Biden, who has to read from teleprompters. JD Vance demonstrated he is certainly perhaps the best VP I have seen in over 30 years.
The EU has been scheming to replace the United States as the leader of the free world. This, I have been told, has been an agenda started by Macron. This is right on schedule. In 1853, the French defeated Russia in the Crimea War. Add 86 years to that, and you come to 1939 with the start of World War II. Add another 86 years, and you come to 2025. It’s just time, and France wants to conquer Russia because they lost under Napoleon.
After Zelensky’s performance, he sent text messages to all the heads of Europe. The way the European press hates Trump and America, Zelensky probably ended up with more anti-American support, securing his goal – World War III to conquer Russia. Trump should instantly cut off ALL funds to Ukraine and instantly exit NATO. Any domestic Ukrainian who supports Zeleinsky should be asked to level the country as he was. Let them go on the front line to fight for their fictional leader, who clearly takes his instructions from NATO and the Neocons.
Posted Posted originally on CTH on Mar 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Marty, I just want to thank you. I am taking my wife and family to the USA. Every TV show and every newspaper hates America and loves Zelenskyy, and now Trump and Putin are the devils. I would never have believed it a year ago. Right now, it is in your face. Europe has hailed Zelensky as your George Washington, and Macron is offering nuclear weapons to Germany. I wonder what Poland is thinking. You pointed out this is 86 years from the Polish invasion by Hitler. They seem to be eager for war with Russia. I bought a house in Florida, and we will be there next week.
Thank you for bringing sanity to this insane world.
AS
COMMENT #2: You are right. I did not vote for the hateful Neocons. She wants Ukraine in NATO now and to rearm Ukraine with nuclear weapons. I read your report. You are right. The Neocons have taken over Europe. It is time to leave.
Paul
COMMENT #3: I believe God is punishing the Europeans and Ukraine for what they did to the Jews and many others over the years and in WWII. What they did with the colonialism and then the blood baths of WWI and WWII, the Holocaust, and now the woke left WEF is not something that simply goes unpunished. God’s Justice requires that they pay the price and be destroyed. They are therefore, arrogant, misguided, being overrun by Islam and plunging themselves into their own destruction. That is why the computer picks this up, it picks up the patterns by which God governs the world the patterns by which governments and societies sow their own destruction.
DS
COMMENT #4 (From Scotland)
Hello Mr. Armstrong ,
I could not believe what I was listening to, what a slam dunk from team USA to that scumbag Zelensky! It was surreal watching it. I praise Trump for putting that buster in his place and Vance, who demonstrated he was the right choice for VP, did an excellent job at prodding Zelensky to uncover the ungrateful rat he is. It is actually true, Zelensky has never shown any gratitude to the American people. The fury on his face today was priceless! He just regards the USA as his personal ATM and today his game is over. The arrogance he showed today and the lies he told…If people still support this man after today, those people are absolutely despicable.
Now I wonder what will come next, I have a feeling that it is not going to be a positive outcome.
GR
COMMENT #5: I can’t believe it. The Economist says Trump is acting like Mafia. You are correct. The press is just cheering World War III.
Kirk
COMMENT #6: Babylon Bee got it right. Not the press. The only way to stop these people is to terminate all subscriptions.
F
I was told in advance Zelensky reads his own PR and thinks he walks on water. He thought he could insult Trump because the media hates him. The people no longer listen to every word of the media. They are evil, corrupt, and constantly try to brainwash people. They do not report the news. They shove their opinion down everyone’s throats – not the news. The days of Walter Cronkite are long gone.
They are back to Yellow Journalism to start wars so they can sell more papers, just as Pulitzer and Hearst did to start the Spanish-American War on fake news.
QUESTION: Hi Martin, I follow you with great interest. Please can you make it clear, in ‘Simpleton terms’ ( IE, for those of us who are unable to fully understand), why war is needed so much by the EU? What on earth does Europe gain from this? Observations, from what I’ve read of your posts:
1) Europe needs war so that it can default on it’s debt. (How does that work)? 2) Europe needs war as a distraction, of some form? (Explain)? 3). I fail to understand how war solves anything? (Why)? 4) I understand war is , to a certain degree, is about ‘Money’, IE divide and conquer and reap the rewards.
In short, without an essay on this subject, please explain the above mentioned scenarios , for those of us that want a ‘simple’ explanation! All the best and take care, C ?
ANSWER: War is a great way to default on debts. You get to form a new government, and they always disavow the debts of the previous government. The new United States government claimed it would honor the debts of the previous Continental Congress but never did. This is why you can still buy continental currency even on eBay because it was never redeemed despite the Constitution Article VI, Clause 1 guaranteeing otherwise.
Article VI, Clause 1:
All Debts contracted and Engagements entered into, before the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be as valid against the United States under this Constitution, as under the Confederation.
This provision, known as the Debts Clause, provides that the United States would recognize the debts and engagements of its predecessor governments—namely, the Continental Congresses and the federal government under the Articles of Confederation. This declaratory proposition assured the United States’ foreign creditors, particularly, that adopting the Constitution did not have the magical effect of dissolving the United States’ moral obligations. They defaulted on We the People.
Europe has been committing economic suicide. Between the COVID-19 Lockdowns, the NET-ZERO Climate Change, and then the sanctions on Russia that doubled their fuel costs, you could not ask for a more braindead group of politicians who have ZERO comprehension of even how the economy functions and who see their domain as maintaining power at all costs. Europe refused to consolidate its debts, and all it did was move the volatility from the currency markets to the bond markets. They have the worst economic growth thanks to these policies blended with Marxism, making them the most oppressed economy period.
Everyone sees their obstinant economic agendas and their insane warmongering, and there has been a mass exodus of European investment. Instead of listening and reforming, they are too far left and insist that they are correct. They have been talking about conquering Russia and carving up its $75 trillion in assets, and then Europe will be worth twice that of the US national debt, and then the US will be downgraded to a colony once again. This is why they are patting each other on the back and why Macron and Tusk spoke to Zelensky and said the EU is behind him an “F” Trump.
They need war because they cannot sustain the EU because it was created under false pretenses. I have laid out the wrong plot and decided to say the full truth. Declassified documents have revealed that it was indeed the Neocons and the CIA that funded and created the European Community postwar right into the Treay of Rome.
DISTRACTION
Politicians will always blame their failures on some other entity or person. Biden blamed the rise in gasoline, calling it Putin’s Inflation. He took no responsibility for imposing the sanction on Russia that resulted in energy prices rising. The EU will collapse, and they know it. War will serve as a distraction so they can blame Russia.
CONQUEST MODEL
War has two basic motives. Naturally, the first is national security. The threat of an invasion. The CONQUEST model has been the expansion of one’s territory, which is commonly known as empire building. They all had their designs on conquering China and carrying it up as the spoils. This is now the EU looking at Russia. The EU wants war for profit.
In 1931, Europe defaulted on their debts. They start new governments and they never honor the debts of the previous just as the USA defaulted on the currency of the Continental Congress.
Posted originally on Feb 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
There are calls for Britain to rejoin the European Union, with Parliament expected to debate matters on March 24. Nigel Farage worked tirelessly to protect Britain from Brussels. The latest proposal for Britain to rejoin the European Union is nothing short of economic suicide. This is not about what’s best for Britain—it’s about the EU’s desperate attempt to sustain its failing economic model. Brussels is watching its dream of a federalized Europe crumble under its own weight, and the return of Britain would serve as nothing more than a financial lifeline for a bureaucratic system that is collapsing.
When Britain voted for Brexit, it was a clear rejection of the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels dictating national policy. Now, as the European economy falters under the weight of its own disastrous policies—sanctions on Russia, an energy crisis, unsustainable debt, and declining competitiveness—suddenly, there’s talk of bringing Britain back into the fold. The timing is no coincidence as discussions arose as soon as Donald Trump took office and refused to abide by globalist policies. The EU needs Britain far more than Britain needs the EU.
The British government continued reckless spending, overlooking the migrant crisis, overregulation, and increased taxation while failing to strike meaningful trade deals outside of Europe. Electing Starmer was a nail in the coffin. Britain’s economic hardships are not because of Brexit, but because the government refused to govern in Britain’s best interest. Now, they want to sell the idea that rejoining the EU will somehow fix these problems, when in reality, it would only drag Britain back into a sinking ship.
The EU itself is crumbling and WILL NOT LAST. Germany’s economic dominance has declined and will continue to so, Southern Europe is drowning in debt, and Brussels has resorted to outright economic warfare against its own member states to maintain control. Members no longer have control over their own nations as they must look to the unelected officials in Brussels for approval. The climate change agenda, financial volatility, trade restrictions, open borders, and the growing risk of a World War are pushing capital out of Europe at an alarming rate. On top of it all, they’re keen to embed themselves in Ukraine’s war. Why would Britain willingly tie itself to this disaster?
Britain must recognize that this new push to rejoin is not about British prosperity. Rather, it’s about keeping the European experiment of the EU alive at Britain’s expense. If Britain falls for this deception, it will surrender its last chance at true economic independence.
Posted originally on Feb 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and perhaps the new chancellor of Deutschland has a message for America – the relationship is over. Many have condemned the Russian people for supporting Vladimir Putin which is precisely what Merz has done regarding Donald Trump and conservative Americans. Merz plans to end Germany’s strong alliance with America and has called for “independence from the USA.”
“I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe,” Merz stated after stating European independence is the utmost priority. “For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA step by step.”
His comments are not primarily related to threats of tariffs but rather Trump’s unwillingness to aid Ukraine or attack Russia. Merz insists that Germany must boost its military power, injecting an additional $145 billion into the defense budget annually compared to the $90 billion it currently spends. Now, that $90 billion was only 2% of GDP and Germany remains the top economy of Europe. So certainly it should hold its weight if it no longer wishes to rely on the US military alliance.
If America is unwilling to aid Ukraine or promote the war, then it is no longer in alliance with NATO’s agenda. In fact, European leaders have been questioning America’s position in the alliance since Trump became the GOP candidate. “I am very curious to see how we are heading toward the Nato summit at the end of June,” he said. “Whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly,” Merz stated.
Moreover, European leaders now wish to share nuclear capabilities. France’s Macron, who certainly dislikes Trump more than Merz, is offering to defend the continent with France’s nuclear arsenal. France stands alone as the Union’s only major nuclear power after Brexit and currently stockpiles the world’s fourth-largest arsenal behind Russia, the USA, and China. Germany was the main opponent against the idea of a so-called “Eurobomb,” but that has since changed. There have been ongoing discussions of a German-French-British nuclear defense system, but countless obstacles remain.
It is unrealistic to expect so many individual nations to agree. Some EU members have signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to oppose nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) currently forbids weapons to be transferred to non-nuclear states or organizations such as the European Union. Then, there is the obstacle of ultimate control. Would France have the final say in when and how to use these weapons?
Trump was hoping for a different outcome, praising Merz for his conservative fiscal policies. “Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years,” Trump posted on Truth Social. But Merz perhaps also dismissed the AfD Party for refusing to support Ukraine. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said.
Europe has relied on American defense since the last World War. This sudden pivot will force all members to increase military spending drastically at a time when the Union itself is collapsing due to fiscal mismanagement and a poor foundation from the start. Merz is prioritizing Brussels and NATO and he is NOT going to improve Germany’s economic conditions as a result.
Posted originally on Feb 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit with an aim of 5.4% of GDP in 2025 followed by 3% into 2029. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. France is the largest European economy failing to maintain this goal as they grapple with ever-rising government debt.
“We are going to work with all the political parties … to discuss, to talk with us. We are going, also, to work with the unions, with the employers, in order to reach a consensus on the main policies that are key for the country, and policies on which we can make adjustments that will allow us to spend less in 2026,” Lombard said, later admitting that politics have had a “negative impact on growth.”
The economy experienced a 0.1% contraction during Q4. The Bank of France expects the economy to grow by 0.1% to 0.2% in Q1 of this year, while the IMF predicts the economy will rise by 0.8% for the year.
France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.
The reality is that France, like much of Europe, is caught in a vicious cycle of excessive government intervention, anti-business policies, and high taxation, all of which discourage capital formation. Pension funds are vanishing. Political instability and declining tax revenues have exacerbated the deficit, yet the solution proposed is always the same—more taxes, more regulations, and empty promises of austerity.
Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.
Posted originally on Feb 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Congratulations. Socrates was correct once again. Scholz’s unpopular Social Democrat government has the worst performance since World War II. Merz won, and Afd doubled its support, coming in second. If this was America, Merz’s less than 29% would have been a joke. Here, he will rule Germany and stupidly vow no coalition with AfD. He has not got the memo as you say that the people are shifting.
Thank you for Socrates. This is the only forecaster that is not biased.
Hans
REPLY: Yes, Friedrich Merz’s conservative opposition leader, what would not be even a headline in the United States. When you have so many parties fighting, you get very ineffective governments. That many Italians have told me keeps politicians arguing against each other and leaving the people alone. Indeed, as our computer projected, the Alternative for Germany nearly doubled its support, putting in the strongest showing for an alleged “far-right party” that had been against wholesale immigration since World War II.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his left-leaning Social Democrats. He said it was “a bitter election result.” Perhaps he should listen to the people rather than to Kaus Schwab. Marxism does not work. It has destroyed every economy it has ever been deployed because it is outright against human nature.
Merz vowed to move quickly to put together a coalition government but has vowed not to make a coalition with AfD all because the press has labeled them far-right, asking to be Nazis. Any coalition Merz created without AfD will only doom Germany to a continuation of the never-ending economic stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy thanks to Russian sanctions and the stupid net-zero climate change policies. Merz had pushed hard in recent weeks for a stricter approach, but with opposition to NATO against peace with Russia in order to remain relevant, will Merz fall in line with the EU war objectives?
Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier after the U.S. Therein lies the problem. Scholtz promised Zelensky he would be his biggest supporter. Ukraine only takes. I never give up anything. The Ukraine government is the most corrupt government runs it in the world, and they are like a merchant who takes your money and declares all sales are final and have no returns.
Based on exit polls and partial counting, the projections put support for Merz’s Union bloc came in at around 28.5% and the anti-immigration AfD at about 20.5% — roughly double its result from 2021. Scholz’s Social Democrats collapsed to just over 16%, which was an all-time historic low even under the 20.5% from 2017. The Greens came in at an appalling just over 12%.
Merz made a huge mistake because of the press and dismissed the idea that voters wanted a coalition with AfD. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said. Mertz has ignored the vote and he is just doing as directed by the EU and NATO. This does not speak well for Germany’s’s changing directions.
I do not see Mertz changing Germany’s economic direction. He must reject the EU and NATO and listen to the German people.
Posted originally on Feb 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The German elections are tomorrow, and the polls are touting the failed government of Schultz as the winner. Germany will hold a snap national election on Sunday, February 23, after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition. Currently, the CDU/CSU leads in our polling according to the LEFT-controlled German Press with an aggregate of 9 points over the AfD. They always pretend that the LEFT is somehow centered and that whatever we earn really belongs to the state, and they decide how much we are allowed to retain. The Swiss numbered accounts really took place because Hitler made it illegal to have an account outside the country. Capital had fled because the SPD government confiscated 10% of everyone’s bank accounts and handed them a bond in December 1922, which led to hyperinflation. People got whatever wealth they had out of Germany after that trick.
After Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, the press, which had labeled the AfD the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), gained 3.7 points. The SPD, the current leaders in the national parliament since the average person votes for labels only, has lost 12.3 points since the last federal election and is currently in third place. Germany has no centrist parties other than the AfD, which has stood against migration and war. Scholz’s pretend center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Covid had a significant impact in Germany. Even our staff there fled the country and moved to our Dubai office over mandatory vaccines for children. The AfD first entered Germany’s national parliament eight years ago on the back of discontent with the arrival of large numbers of migrants thanks to Merkel flooding Europe with no public vote nor any EU-wide concensus. It was all about her image, and she undermined Europe as a whole. So now the press calls anyone against migration the far-right. European politicians live in denial. BREXIT took place because the British did not want this flood of immigrants who had no intention of blending into European culture but demanded their own culture dominate. Parts in Sweden saw them declaring Shia Law prevailed – not European. But disagree with the leftists who REFUSE to acknowledge any mistake, and you are a far-right Nazi.
The Afd party has proven that this discontent over the mass flood of non-Christian immigrants, where some have even burned churches, has tapped into common sense. The LEFT press has covered up the rape of girls in Europe by the migrants. As in the USA, the press saw no problem with transgender men competing in women’s sports, setting all the records. Germany’s move away from fossil fuels, restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and support for Ukraine’s orchestrated war against Russia and the prospects of World War III are somehow all far-right. The status quo in politics will be the downfall and destruction of Europe. The Greens have supported war against Russia to end their fossil fuel production. Even the World Socialist website has stated that the “Greens are among the most aggressive warmongers. ” So, risk nuclear war to save the planet? The failure of the AfD to win a majority will doom Germany to World War III.
Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke, and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who are all at risk of missing the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, according to opinion polls. Yet the real problem is the audacity of the EU to overturn the Romanian election and say they might do the same if the AfD wins. Europe is turning not just against free speech but very authoritarian, and it is the LEFT that has become the war party.
Our model has already elected two Yearly sell signals on the German Bunds. The current government is not just pro-war; it is undermining its own economy. The German election has shrunk by 3% thanks to the Green policy and the sanctions it imposed on Russia, undermining its industrial complex and resulting in rising unemployment and protests in the auto industry. Since COVID, the economic growth of the German economy has been steadily declining.
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