Posted originally on Feb 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
This interview is also available on X and Spotify:
X
Rumble
Spotify
Tag Archives: Central Bank Digital Currency
European Outlook & German Elections
Posted originally on Jan 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, thank you because you are the lone voice calling to us in Europe, where free speech is dying quickly. Others are afraid to say what you point out, even if they see it themselves. Some try to dismiss you but never address what you say, only who you are.
Many of us in Europe greatly respect your courage and independence. You will be remembered by history when this all comes to an end.
RVH
REPLY: Thank you. I learned back in 1985 when I went to lunch with one of the heads of a major bank in Geneva. He explained to me back then why everyone was using my firm. He said you do not care if the dollar goes up or down. He explained there were no European FX analysts because it was a political issue in Europe since politicians used the rise in the currency to validate their performance. Saying the currency would decline became a political statement.
Today, if an analyst at a major bank said the euro would crash, the ECB would be on the phone instructing that institution to fire them. That was explained to me back in 1985. It has only progressed since then, and now it is becoming criminal to simply oppose the government under the label of far-right or hate speech. An AfD victory will help to push the euro over the edge and threaten the WOKE agenda of the EU leadership.
Estonia’s economy was booming, but after several years of GDP growth at or close to 10%, the expansion rate collapsed and caused a negative contraction. The 2007-2010 economic recession was not such a soft landing. The sharp slowdown in the Estonian economy that began in 2007 is now undeniable. They jailed an economist for saying it would turn down. If I went to London today, Starmer would probably throw me in prison for something I said 10 years ago.
This is merely a reflection that the economy is turning down, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis is starting to come to a head. Trump at least understands debt. He may be called many names, but the issue will come to light, and he at least comprehends a debt crisis, whereas our politicians assume this is how they run the government, and someone will always buy their debt. When they can’t sell the new debt to pay off the old, everything will come crashing down. This is starting to come to a head this year, going into 2026. They will impose capital controls in Europe. They are trying speech controls first.
Olaf Scholz assumed office in December 2021. Just look at the German bond market. It went into a panic decline in 2022. Europe is going to have a debt crisis really beginning to surface next year. But more and more people are going to take notice this year.
The polls still show that the Union (CDU/CSU) is leading with an average of 30%, while the second strongest is the AfD, running about 21%. The next election will be on February 23rd, 2025.
We can see that we do have a Panic Cycle the week leading into the election that weekend. Then, there is choppiness for the following 3 weeks with a string of Directional Changes.
Alice Weidel of the AFD delivered a speech that hit home in Germany, exposing Scholz and his left-green authoritarian seizure of Germany. She explained that while migrants were attacking our people, Scholz had tried to silence the opposition and had even attempted to ban the AfD. She said: “Someone who thinks so authoritarian should not be the Chancellor of Germany.”
We show a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle due in February that lines up with the German election. An AfD victory can send the dollar higher and start to unwind the Euro. It is now 26 years since the birth of the euro. Cyclically, this is just time for the stress to emerge since it is unlikely that the euro will still exist by 2030 – 31 years from its creation.
Free Speech in Germany Only if You Agree With Government
Posted originally on Jan 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. made it clear what Free Speech was in Schenk v. U.S., 249 U.S. 47 (1919) (1919), ruling that a restriction is legitimate only if the speech in question poses a “clear and present danger”—i.e., a risk or threat to safety or to other public interests that is serious and imminent. Yelling fire in a crowded movie theatre is not free speech. There have been many cases involving freedom of speech and of the press over the years, and what is taking place in Europe is a rejection of free speech. In Britain, they sentenced a man to 20 months in prison for saying he was tired of paying taxes to support migrants who then raped their children. They are defining much that simply disagrees with government policy as “hate speech,” which is expressing a political opinion.
In Everson v. Board of Education, 330 U.S. 1 (1947), Justice Hugo L. Black on the Supreme Court traced the origins of the First Amendment to a bill establishing religious freedom that Jefferson drafted and introduced in the Virginia General Assembly in 1779, but was finally passed only in 1786 demanded by James Madison. This had three main sections prohibiting compulsory religion requirements of any kind, maintaining that men were free to express their opinions on religion and choose how or if to worship. That was a fundamental right as citizens and it was the foundation as a natural right of mankind. Justice Black wrote:
“Yet we are free to declare, and do declare, that the rights hereby asserted are of the natural rights of mankind, and that, if any act shall be hereafter passed to repeal the present or to narrow its operation, such act will be an infringement of natural right.”
Justice John Marshall Harlan, whose grandfather had been on the Supreme Court from 1877 to 1911, delivered the decision in Cohen v. California, 403 U.S. 15 (1971) where the state criminalized the word “f–k” being used in political protests against the government. He made it clear that the State may not, consistently with the First and Fourteenth Amendments, make the simple public display of this single four-letter expletive a criminal offense. Starmer in Britain imprisoning people for merely saying migrants raped their children was a criminal offense and sentenced a man to 20 months in prison.
Freedom of speech includes the rights to:
- Not to speak (specifically, the right not to salute the flag).
West Virginia Board of Education v. Barnette, 319 U.S. 624 (1943). - Of students to wear black armbands to school to protest a war (“Students do not shed their constitutional rights at the schoolhouse gate.”).
Tinker v. Des Moines, 393 U.S. 503 (1969). - To contribute money (under certain circumstances) to political campaigns.
Buckley v. Valeo, 424 U.S. 1 (1976). - To engage in symbolic speech (e.g., burning the flag in protest).
Texas v. Johnson, 491 U.S. 397 (1989); United States v. Eichman, 496 U.S. 310 (1990).
What you MUST understand is that the EU is collapsing. The failure to ever consolidate the debts has led to (1) disparity among members, and (2) the Euro has never been able to replace the dollar, lacking a unified debt market to attract capital. The more desperate the financial crisis unfolds in Europe between war and debt, the more authoritarian the government will become. This is why Scholtz has the audacity to claim Germany has free speech as long as you are not their opposition. You cannot have free speech and ban the political speech of your opposition.
With all the talk of war in Europe, we are starting to see a massive exodus of European investment by foreigners. The Japanese dumped a record $53 billion worth of Euro investments, and we see the same from European investors trying to get out before capital controls coincide with the first bullet fired. The European leaders are braindead. They cannot grasp that the harder they beat their war drums, the more smart money will get out of the EU before it is too late. The Euro has been in an overall bear market decline since 2008.
Has the World Lost Its Collective Mind?
Posted originally on Jan 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
What is astonishing is all the outrageous forecasts about global warming and how the entire earth will be destroyed. We will all be forced to flee to Antarctica was so absurd, yet the press loved to push this nonsense out so our government would panic, raise taxes, and shift money to fake analysis to pretend they are doing something all because it was in the press. Here are two stories on that pretend theory from 2004 and 2015. You would think it has been 20 years, and we would have seen something. Instead, we have the coldest winter in more than 50 years, so they claim it is all caused by driving to work or the kids to school.
I am surprised that Biden didn’t hand Klaus Schwab the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his to get the virus going and tell us how wonderful lockdowns were because they were quiet. The objective was to shut down small local businesses and end commuting, so now we have an office space crisis that will hit the economy as people have been forced to work virtually. This was all part of the climate change agenda.
The German Greens now want war to conquer Russia to shut down its fossil fuel production, which is the largest in the world. The Greens now want bloodshed to save the planet from climate change. What used to be up is now down, and it seems like the entire world has lost its collective mind. NATO bombed the hell out of former Yugoslavia to bring peace. Napoleon and Hitler sought to conquer Europe to end all wars. It’s incredible how people justify taking the opposite action to create some fictional noble cause.
UK Council Tax Hike – Britain’s Glory Days are Gone
Posted originally on Jan 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Revolutions have begun over less. UK lawmakers plan to raise taxes on over four million households to cover a portion of their fiscal mismanagement. Homeowners may see their bills raise by a full 25% in certain areas as councils plan to use a loophole in the law to exploit the people.
Local government is not allowed to raise taxes over 4.99% without an election and approved referendum. To bypass the law and will of the people, councils plan to invoke Section 114 to declare themselves bankrupt. Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Angela Rayner of the Labour Party would need to approve the measure. Rayner has been pushing to eliminate local government authority. Rules for thee but not for me apply to Rayner as she managed to avoid paying taxes on her own home sale by looking for a loophole and simply feigning or, more likely, admitting stupidity.
The Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead in Berkshire, Lib Dem-run, is naturally pushing for the largest increase of 25%. They claim it is a wealthy area and the people can afford to pay over five times the usual maximum. The party’s North Somerset Council believes homeowners should face a 15% penalty as well. Labour-run Bradford council pleaded with the UK government last year for a bail out worth £220 million, but even that was not sufficient as they are seeking to increase taxes by 15%. The party’s authority in Birmingham would like to raise taxes for a second consecutive year to 9.99%. Eight authorities in total are seeking to abuse the legal loophole of Section 114 to rob citizens.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government attempted to deflect any responsibility. “Councils are ultimately responsible for setting their own council tax, and we will put taxpayers at the forefront of any decision,” they told the Daily Mail.
Did I mention that these tax hikes will NOT cover each council deficit? Governments are absolutely ravenous for funding and do not care how hard the people are hit.
I recall when Maggie Thatcher was under fire for proposing a poll or head tax whereby each taxpayer would pay the same fixed sum dictated by the local authority. I warned Maggie about imposing a poll tax. She thought the people would take the supervisory role as a check on the government if they had skin in the game. But I knew from history it would not unfold as she had hoped.
In Britain overall, aside from this proposal, the tax hike as a percentage of gross domestic product to a record 38.2% will be the highest in modern British history, resulting in government spending not seen outside an emergency or war. While he claims that the additional £40 billion ($80 billion) is to invest in the future, it will undermine the future of Britain.
Our computer has been projecting that the British pound will collapse and penetrate the 1985 low as we move into the years ahead. Last year saw a Double-Directional Change on the yearly level for the pound, and we are looking at an unprecedented economic decline into 2026. This is what the LEFT refuses ever to comprehend. They are Marxists until the end – Britain’s glory days are gone.
Tariff Threats Successful – Colombia to Accept Returned Citizens
Posted originally on Jan 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Tariffs never work, but threats often do when it is known they will be carried out. Donald Trump threatened Colombia with massive tariffs, sanctions, and travel bans if the nation refused to take back thousands of illegal Colombian migrants. Within ONE HOUR, Colombia agreed to all terms and conditions.
Two repatriation flights to Colombia were denied entry, leading Trump to take action. The initial threat would have raised tariffs by 25% instantly, with tariffs doubling to 50% within a week if the order was not restored. Trump threatened to place numerous sanctions on Colombia and certain politicians. Colombian officials and allies would have had their visas removed immediately. “These measures are just the beginning. We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the criminals they forced into the United States,” Trump warned.
The Colombian government responded within an hour. “The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay. Based on this agreement, the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement,” the White House reported. Visa sanctions will remain in place “until the first planeload of Colombian deportees is successfully returned.”
Colombia’s President Petro replied to Trump’s initial threats by claiming the US president would attempt to invoke a coup against him. Petro called the US “boring” and Trump a racist who considered him “an inferior race.” Petro spoke of seeing “blacks and Latinos” in Washington fighting and urged them to ban together. Clearly, he was hoping to invoke a racial war when that was NEVER the premise. Why do you not want to accept back your own people, President Petro? Why are you unable to control the drug cartels who rule your nation? He knows that those who fled under Biden are some of the worst the nation had to offer.
“You can try to carry out a coup with your economic strength and your arrogance, like then did with Allendale. But I will die in my law, I resisted torture and I resist you. I don’t want slavers next to Colombia, we already had many and freed ourselves,” Petro continued, saying Trump does not want Colombia to be free and he would not “shake hands with white slavers.” He then threatened to force 50% tariffs on the US in retaliation.
Democrats in the US sided with Petro immediately and claimed that asking illegal residents to return home was undignified. These politicians are demanding that American citizens pay for illegal migrants. There is no ongoing war in Colombia, and they did not come here for asylum. America has a legal immigration process that people can follow if they’d like to reside here.
Petro’s tantrum ended in defeat. We now have a president who is not afraid of confrontation. Trump has been thrown to the wolves so many times that any attempt to villainize him is met with apathy. America will no longer be made to feel like an antihero for its economic success nor will its people be subject to the sins of their forefathers. America finally has a leader who demands respect and is not afraid to raise hell for America First policies.
Germany’s AfD Calls for “Remigration”
Posted originally on Jan 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Party is prepared to break with the European Union’s policy of open borders and implement a mass deportation operation. This is yet another reason why the establishment is attempting to ban the party and brand it as “far-right.”
Europe’s open border policies began in Germany under former Chancellor Angela Merkel who urged Syrians to flee and seek asylum within Germany in 2015. That same year, Germany experienced a massive uptick of 2.14 million arrivals. Other figures believe the number is far higher. There are now an estimated 14 million immigrants in Germany, most of whom are not there legally.
It became brutally apparent that there was major difference in cultures, and migrants, primarily single men, were unprepared for the Western world. Women in once safe cities feared walking alone. The German government created pamphlets and courses on how to properly flirt with a woman without sexual harassment. The continual rise in crime was not enough to deter the globalist government who insisted the rest of Europe adopt open border policies as well.
Violent crimes in Germany reached a 15-year high last year, a 5.5% YoY rise, and MIGRANTS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR 40% OF THOSE CRIMES. It is not racist or xenophobic to state FACTS – these unvetted migrants from a completely different social background are ruining Germany. Lamya Kaddor, a Green Party MP, said that migrants were simply over-represented in crime statistics. “The crime rate is higher among socio-economically disadvantaged groups, which very often include foreign nationals,” they coldly said. None of the Build Back Better leaders are concerned with the welfare of their own citizens.
The cost on the welfare state is astounding. Germany spend at least 23.2 billion euros on supporting refugees last year after spending 29.7 billion euros the year prior. In fact, the government as admitted to spending over 20 billion euros each year since open borders were implemented. We are talking about over 5% of the federal budget going directly toward illegal residents.
The AfD would like to reclaim Germany, with leader Alice Weidel coining a new term, “remigration.” Migrants would be redirected back to their country of origin. She also called many of Germany’s migrants “un-assimilated” residents which is precisely the problem. Thousands have protested in favor of keeping the borders wide open. Will they pay the price to support these people? Migrants committed 40% of all violent crimes last year, are draining social programs, yet people are fighting for them to stay? Perhaps there are some citizens who have also failed to assimilate to German culture.
Hungary May Not Renew Russian Sanctions
Posted originally on Jan 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Brussels has been eager to oust Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. The prime minister has grown bolder in his battle against Ukraine regarding the nation blocking gas imports from Russia. Orban has not declared that he may not renew the European Union’s required sanction on Russia unless Ukraine renews the Russian pipeline deal. A final decision will be made today.
“Now the issue of extending sanctions is on the agenda, I have put on the handbrake and asked European leaders to understand that this cannot continue,” said Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, speaking to state broadcaster Kossuth Radio. “Hungary cannot be made to pay the price of sanctions in such proportions.”
Current EU criteria demand that all 27 EU nations increase penalties against Russia every six months so long as the war continues. The bloc has already frozen €200 billion in sovereign assets and nearly eliminated all trade. The problem is that neighboring nations are more reliant on Russian energy and have been disproportionately affected by these sanctions. Ukraine’s Zelensky recently failed to renew a critical pipeline deal that all but halted Russian gas imports to the EU.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has also spoken out repeatedly, citing the need for Russian energy and warning that his nation will face an energy crisis if Ukraine prevents the flow of gas. “There is no EU legislation or system of sanctions that would hinder Ukraine from continuing the gas transit,” Fico said earlier in the month. “We can’t ignore this topic because everyone knows ignoring it means escalating tensions in the EU and in bilateral relations.”
“The Ukrainians, while it is in their interests to impose sanctions, are now poking their nose into the flour and tampering with the Hungarians, even on the energy side, because they are not allowing gas to flow from Russia to Hungary,” Orbán said.
The Hungarian government asked to delay the penalty renewal process until after the US election. Trump’s decision to threaten Russia with sanctions boldened EU leaders to call out Hungary and demand they follow the lead.
The European Union cannot possibly act in the best interest of all member states. The entire premise of this alliance was doomed from the start. Members are growing increasingly frustrated as Brussels hinders their individual economies and this political instability will be one of the many reasons the EU will cease to exist.
Germany Considers Banning AfD Party
Posted originally on Jan 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Democracy has no place in the European Union. Brussels has complete control and each nation must present a puppet leader who adheres to the EU agenda. We saw it in Romania as they simply dismissed the election results. Now, Germany is considering a ban on one of the most influential parties that is growing in popularity.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has grown in recent years. Recent polls suggest that the AfD is the second most supported party in all of Germany. There is a correlation with AfD’s growing support and number of undocumented migrants infiltrating the German welfare state and causing crime to skyrocket. AfD has vowed to restore Germany for the people of Germany and implement mass deportation campaigns. The group does not want to adhere to the EU’s open border policy.
The party acknowledges the economic challenges facing the nation, like the ongoing housing and energy crises, and does not want their tax funds spent on climate change or war. In fact, the group is entirely skeptical of Germany’s place in the European Union. The party has repeatedly questioned Germany’s place in the alliance. Brussels cannot afford to lose its top economy.
Therefore, the establishment is considering an outright ban on the AfD party and 124 of 733 members of Bundestag support the application. Article 21 of the German constitution forbids political parties that “seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order or to endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany shall be unconstitutional.”
Article 21 [Political parties] (1) Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people. They may be freely established. Their internal organisation must conform to democratic principles. They must publicly account for their assets and for the sources and use of their funds. (2) Parties that, by reason of their aims or the behaviour of their adherents, seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order or to endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany shall be unconstitutional. (3) Parties that, by reason of their aims or the behaviour of their adherents, are oriented towards an undermining or abolition of the free democratic basic order or an endangerment of the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany shall be excluded from state financing. If such exclusion is determined, any favourable fiscal treatment of these parties and of payments made to those parties shall cease. (4) The Federal Constitutional Court shall rule on the question of unconstitutionality within the meaning of paragraph (2) of this Article and on exclusion from state financing within the meaning of paragraph (3). (5) Details shall be regulated by federal laws.
So despite nearly 20% of the country supporting this political party, the establishment believes they need to dissolve. Critics consistently make the claim that the party is the next Third Reich and will produce the next Hitler.
AfD co-head Alice Weidel has recently come under fire for mentioning Hitler in an interview with Elon Musk published on X. “[The National Socialists] nationalized the entire industry. … The biggest success after that terrible era in our history was to label Adolf Hitler as right and conservative. He was exactly the opposite. He wasn’t a conservative. … He was a communist, socialist guy. “I don’t deviate from this either: Adolf Hitler was a leftist,” she further added. Hitler was a crazed totalitarian dictator who came to power after Germany was left in shambles in the wake of World War I. He was neither a socialist nor a communist. Regardless, absolutely no one is attempting to revive the party of Nazis. The current path Germany is on will leave their economy in a destitute state once again as they are heading into a recession that will pull down all of Europe.
The people of Germany would like to abandon the initiatives set by Brussels that have contributed to the cost of living crisis. Olaf Scholz has fallen out of favor and left Germany with a massive hole in its budget. He is doing everything in his power to assist the neocons in creating the next world war that is certain to lead to inflation and worse conditions for the people. The establishment can ban a political party but it cannot ban ideologies. People will STILL continue to support anti-progressive policies and they’ll simply need to ban the entire democratic process of voting if they want to eliminate dissent.
Baron Glasman Breaks Down The History Of The Labour Party In The United Kingdom
Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Jan 21, 2025 at 7:00 pm EST
Centinel2012 