Raising the Minimum Wage


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 23, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Democrats stuffed into the $1.9 trillion stimulus package a hike in the minimum wage from $7.25 for covered nonexempt employees to $15. Many states also have minimum wage laws. In cases where an employee is subject to both the state and federal minimum wage laws, the employee is entitled to the higher of the two minimum wages.

In Florida, I voted for a hike in the minimum wage over the next six years which will increase gradually to $15 an hour. On November 3, 2020, over 60% of Floridian voters approved Amendment 2, which increases the minimum wage and amends Florida’s Constitution. Under the new mandate, Florida’s minimum wage rate (currently, $8.56) will increase to $10 an hour in September 2021. The minimum wage then will increase by $1 each year until it reaches $15 an hour in 2026. The minimum wage rate applies to all public and private sector employers, regardless of size or number of employees.

Employers must use the following hourly minimum wage schedule for non-tipped employees:

  • Through December 31, 2020 – $8.56
  • January 1, 2021 – $8.65
  • September 30, 2021 – $10.00
  • September 30, 2022 – $11.00
  • September 30, 2023 – $12.00
  • September 30, 2024 – $13.00
  • September 30, 2025 – $14.00
  • September 30, 2026 – $15.00

I voted for it because by 2026 we should see a rise in inflation due to shortages. However, the Federal bill increases the minimum wage to $9.50 an hour as soon as the bill is passed, raising to $11.00 an hour one year later, $12.50 two years later, $14.00 three years later, and $15.00 an hour beginning the fourth year following passage of the legislation.

While I am generally opposed to increasing the minimum wage because that has traditionally been the entry-level for kids in school, I would prefer to see the minimum wage qualified by age. Raising the minimum wage for part-time students will have an adverse impact on employment. Because of all of the extra-costs for an employer and regulations that politicians think will protect workers, this will merely increase the incentive to replace jobs with self-service screens and robots.

Eliminating employees is a dramatic cost reduction up to as much as 70% for most service-oriented businesses especially in hospitality. The danger of these lockdowns, masks, and social-distancing is that it is not merely breaking the bonds of human interaction, we have heard from corporate clients in hospitality that the prolonged lockdown crisis is shifting the business model toward robots rapidly because they cannot afford to pay staff to sit around for nothing.

We held our World Economic Conference in Orlando at the Hilton which is usually jammed-packed. This time, we had the hotel to ourselves and they were so ecstatic that we were even there. The hotel was running at 5% capacity and all but one restaurant was close. Additionally, there was no room service.

If we do not appreciate that rising healthcare costs are seriously impacting small businesses and their ability to hire staff, the trend toward self-service screens, internet-like ordering, and robots will wipe out entry-level jobs. This is such a serious issue that politicians should not be allowed to play with just to win votes and they think it sounds good. Almost 80% of the economy today is service-oriented. Nobody can destroy an economy like corrupt politicians. Increasing the minimum wage should really be differentiated by age as to not deter the youth from getting their first job. It must be looked at as a whole with all the other regulations and costs. When we were advising Japanese companies who wanted to open up in Europe, those in manufacture we put in Britain because the cost associated with employees were 40% less than in Germany back then. We make strategic decisions globally based upon all the inputs – not just one to put on a show.

XRP & the Rise of Barter


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted Feb 19, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Martin,

I wonder if you can comment on the potential of the swift system being replaced by Ripple lab’s XRP as a bridging currency between currency pairs making use of their patented “On-Demand Liquidity” system. If this is the case then it would appear the USD is set to be replaced as the world reserve currency commodities being priced in local currency.

The IMF has stated they want to renegotiate the Bretton Woods agreement. Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England said at the 2019 Jackson hole meeting that the USD is too dominant and proposed it be replaced by a green cryptocurrency such as XRP.

The world economic Forum is touting Ripple lab’s platform as the future.

Without going full conspiracy theory in this. It would seem plausible that something like this is in the offing

The SEC lawsuit against Ripple seems a little sinister given that the DOJ  already found XRP to be a digital asset, not a security, and has the potential to push Ripple offshore to a more friendly jurisdiction. Which the globalists would love.

I’m rambling, I’m sorry, however, could you speak on the swift system and potential replacement and any other topic I’ve touched on if you have the time or inclination even to dismiss.

Thanks, Martin you were born to live through this moment.

Kind regards

TL

ANSWER: XRP is a digital asset built for payments. It is the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger—an open-source, permissionless, and decentralized blockchain technology that can settle transactions in 3-5 seconds. The reason these people are pushing this is not about the dollar, it is to end paper money and thereby they see this as the solution to 6 years of quantitative easing which failed to stimulate the economy because the velocity of money declined as people hoarded their cash instead of spending it. This would also terminate all cryptocurrency.

Either Mark Carney and the IMF are completely ignorant as to why the dollar is the reserve currency that nobody else can displace, or they are deliberately hiding the truth which is a major default on world sovereign debt. The dollar is the reserve currency for three primary reasons.

  1. The US dollar has no restrictions and anyone can issue debt in dollars without controls
  2. The US dollar has never been canceled
  3. The US economy is the largest in the world but with the core consumer market to which the world sells

Europe routinely cancels its currency which introduces risk which prevents it from being used internationally. While they have not canceled the €500 note, few people will accept them for fear of being canceled. Even India canceled its high-end notes which I have from the last time I went to India to meet with our institutional clients there. Only the dollar remains legal tender since 1861 and Trudeau had a law passed in Canada withdrawing the legal tender status of some notes by January 1sy, 2021, which now allows him to cancel all paper money at his pleasure. Canadian dollars now have a risk of cancellation as of January 1st, 2021.

Note that prior to World War I, most bonds issued by foreign countries using in another’s country currency involved the British pound which was the reserve currency prior to World War I. After that, it was the dollar that rose to the status of a reserve currency when Europe decided to blow each other up.

While Germany may be the biggest economy within Europe, the mercantile economic policy and high taxes in fear of hyperinflation since World War II has rendered the Germans near the bottom of the wealth list among the EU. The significance of this is very important. It means that Germany did not develop the same robust economy based upon consumer demand. They relied upon selling things to other countries which was why Kohl was pushing for a single currency to enable Germany to sell even more to the rest of Europe by reducing currency risk.

Pricing commodities in this XRP will by no means eliminate the dollar as the reserve currency. It would require the United States to terminate the dollar and accept XRP. Otherwise, all that will happen is introduce greater volatility forcing American companies into hedging FX risk between the dollar and XRP.

For years, all we ever heard was if they price oil in Euro that will kill the dollar. These people just totally fail to grasp the complexity behind what even makes a currency. Then we have heard how the dollar will crumble to ash because of debt. Yet total sovereign world debt is nearing $200 trillion and the USA is just under 15% of that. These people have no idea of what they are talking about. Other nations are in far worse shape not because of Debt to GDP, but because they lack the underlying consumer-based economy. This is WHY China is diligently following the US model and not that of Germany.  They have turned inward and are moving to generate the world’s largest consumer-based economy which is WHY they will surpass the United States which is being taken over by the same European Marxist agenda which has relegated Europe to the third world status. The Top 10 economies in the world only include three EU countries in nominal terms:

1. United States
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. India
6. United Kingdom
7. France
8. Italy
9. Brazil
10. Canada

If we measure these economies accounting for purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, which relate the exchange rate between currencies to consumer price levels, the picture changes. China is the world’s largest economy since 2017 in PPP terms according to estimates by the World Bank which uses international dollars to make better comparisons among countries. This introduces FX risk. Therefore, in PPP terms, the U.S. is second with about a 15.8% share of world GDP. The European Union was in third place, contributing $19.9 trillion, or 15.3%, of world GDP.

Therefore, the push behind XRP requires 5G communication speed to be able to instantly clear transactions. Without that, you cannot replace paper currency. Consequently, the only way to move to electronic money in order to eliminate non-taxable hidden cash and the underground economy is to move toward the digital world. In the United States, in 2020, it is estimated that the underground economy is about 11 or 12% of U.S. GDP, or roughly $2.5 trillion total. Politicians look at that and see dollar sign visions in their heads.

Politicians blame their fiscal mismanagement and their political failures NEVER on themselves, but always on we the Great Unwashed who are never trustworthy. Even an IRS, SEC, CFTC, or any agent who audits the private sector begins with the assumption everyone is a criminal. They have to find something or else they did not do their job.

As a result, politicians are obsessed with eliminating paper money to end the hoarding of cash and the underground economy. You hire the teenage girl next door to babysit and then pay her cash. OMG, the government laments, where is our taxes? Or you found a $1 bill in the sparkling lot. They can’t sleep at night worrying about how much they are losing in tax revenue.

Hence, XRP is primarily for that purpose. To eliminate the underground economy. This has been going on for thousands of years. Here is an ancient Roman prostitute token. Roman Empire Tiberius (14-27AD) declared that you could not pay a prostitute with a coin that bore the image of the emperor. So they trade coined these tokens. You would buy the token from a money changer and use that to pay the prostitute. She, in turn, would take them back to the money changer and he would swap them out for money.

No matter how politicians try to eliminate the underground economy, all they will do is give rise to the reestablishment of barter. In prison, cigarettes were money. Then packs of mackerel. Who knows what will emerge? USB sticks?

Canada 2021 Report Now Available in the Store


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Feb 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The 2021 Canadian Report is now available. We have gone into the clever change in the law that Trudeau pulled off to allow him to cancel the currency at his discretion as of January 1, 2021. He did withdraw the legal tender status of various notes that are still out there. You can take them to the bank and deposit them in your account, but stripping them of legal tender status means nobody else is now required to honor that currency.

We have covered the political chaos, the debt, the separatist movements, energy, the agricultural crisis, the share market, the Canadian dollar, and gold in terms of Canadian dollars rather than in US dollars with arrays and reversals.

The Strange Events of Chance Behind Economic Revolutions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

This is an engraving with a modern watercolor of machines making cotton thread by performing mechanical versions of carding drawing and roving in a mill in Lancashire England about 1835. What the Great Reset is all about is trying to ACCELERATE this Fourth Industrial Revolution by regulation to save the planet, as they see it. They actually are using the lockdowns to destroy employment and industries that they see as unfit which is why you hear Boris Johnson saying he will provide free education to retain people for a new type of job – John Kerry telling coal miners to learn how to work in a factory to make solar panels. They look down upon the people as just economic slaves. If you do not enjoy what you do, you will never do a good job. They simply do not understand human nature.

When the First Industrial Revolution closed down many of the small craft shops, lace-makers, for example, emigrated to the North of France. When they did, they took their English little bulldogs with them. The popularity of these little dogs spread from Normandy to Paris and soon the English lace-makers/breeders had a lively trade, exporting small bulldogs throughout France where they began to be called Bouledogues Français. They were favorites of ordinary Parisians such as butchers, cafe owners, and dealers in the rag trade. They became notorious as the favorites of the Parisian streetwalkers, les belles de nuit. The famous artist Toulouse Lautrec depicted in several works Bouboule, a Frenchie owned by Madame Palmyre, the proprietress of a favorite restaurant “La Souris.”

By 1896, the French Bulldogs made it back to England and they became the instant most popular breed by 1896 and they made the cover of the 1897 Westminster Kennel Club. By 1908, this photo of Anna Maria Sacher (1859-1930) who was the Austrian hotel heir, prominently displaying her two French bulldogs shows they were the darlings of high society.

The former English lace-makers who were put out of a job by the First Industrial Revolution stumbled upon an entirely new field of employment. That was not something that government could regulate or dream of no less decree. You cannot direct how the Fourth Industrial Revolution will unfold. It is completely absurd of Klaus Schwab to think he can accelerate it and direct it in such a manner to immediately destroy jobs with no idea how to provide new employment. Not everyone can make solar panels and wind turbines.

How I ended up as an adviser was all by chance. My father wanted me to go to law school, by I did not want to be a lawyer. He pushed me into computers which I did to please him. When I returned to trading, which I did love, because I turned down shipping off to Greenland, Guam, or Vietnam at RCA,  I then realized I could write a program to assist me back in the 70s before there was even the first IBM XT. I was a market-maker in precious metals and then was going to retire after 1980 when the government wanted to declare me a bank because gold was still money under the Constitution. I had provided the advice to dealers provided they gave me the business.

When I was going to retire, that’s when my clients offered to pay for the advice. So I gave it a shot and the next thing you know, I became the highest-paid adviser in the world at $2,000 an hour they set the fee – not me. The journalist Joseph Perkins, called me back to say after talking to my clients around the world, he said that they commented that if I charged $10,000 they would pay it. Because I was involved in foreign exchange and there were few people around back then, I became international because of the FX markets. The Wall Street Journal wrote about it back in 1983 but focused only on what I made rather than what I did.

Consequently, there is no possible way the government can direct the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Klaus Schwab just fails to understand that things develop without some grand master plan. He talks about AI but does not have the slightest idea of real AI or how it even functions.

Did Retail Really Make GME Rally? Or where there others behind the trade?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A Re-Posted Feb 4, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You seem to think that the Reddit people were just lucky. Is this the dawn of the little guy beating Wall Street?

GU

ANSWER: Look, this is our Global Market Watch for GME on a Quarterly Basis. The major low took place during the 2nd quarter of 2020. This is a pattern recognition model and while it picked the decline and the rally, most professionals trade technically. I cannot imagine any program that would have been calling for a short position even if you used a simple stochastic. Any technical trader would have been long. I highly doubt that this was simply novice retail people who crated this push. It has all the hallmarks of a professional manipulation and if the SEC does not investigate, you know that means the real hands in the cookie jar are behind the curtain.

Reddit Crowd Boasting too Much?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Feb 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A number of people have commented that somehow the people on Reddit are taking our forecasts and touting them when to buy as in silver now. It appears that way for  I have been warning for months that the gold/silver ratio will collapse and that silver would gain over gold. The danger that whoever is really behind this Reddit forum is will more likely bring the SEC down on free speech because you cannot tell people to buy stuff and then have a position in the same thing you are touting without full disclosure. That can be 20 years in prison and as long as you are not a New Yorker, you do go to prison.

The ratio made a new historical high exceed that of World War II when silver was cheaper than even nickel 1942 to 1945. It was used to replace the 5 cents “nickel” coins during the war. We put out our forecasts recommending silver over gold and that has been a good trade. However, these people behind Reddit are making it appear that if people follow them they can beat Wall Street.

All they have been doing is picking the trade that is in motion. They are NOT capable of manipulating a market insofar as turning a bear market into a bull market any more than Wall Street can. If the Wall Street crowd was all-powerful, then they would not blow themselves up and run to the government for bailouts. What they have been doing is accelerating the move but the timing remains the same. Only the volatility rises.

A word to the wise! You will lose everything if you think these people are never wrong and can beat Wall Street. Taking out billboard signs bragging about GameStop is not going to prevent a crash.

China Becomes #1 Place for Direct Foreign Investment


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Jan 27, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Because the West has decided to commit suicide economically to push this Great Reset and destroy the economy to BUILD BACK BETTER, they are fulfilling precisely what our model has been forecasting – that China will become the Financial Capital of the World post-2032. China has surpassed the United States for the first time as the #1 place for direct foreign investment. We warned last week that our capital flow models were picking up capital pouring out of Europe to China much of it investing in their bonds paying 3% compared to negative yields.

The actions taken by Biden in the first three days seems to be just intent on reversing whatever Trump had done from stopping the pipeline to ordering the end of construction of the wall as hundreds of thousands are now headed to the USA with rumors that Biden will grant citizenship to all illegal aliens inside the USA. They are headed to California in herds of mass migration. Never before in history has any president so drastically altered the direction of the country so unilaterally without any serious consideration for what the consequences will be long-term.

Biden fails to realize that there is a worldwide economy out there. The United States is not unlimited in its power. He has indeed shown that what our computer has been forecasting for years will indeed be absolutely correct. He fails to understand that China is strategically building its own consumer-based economy thereby severing the reliance upon the United States to sell its products. Germany never departed from its mercantile economic model. German citizens pay high taxes and as such, they are near the bottom of the European ladder for wealth. China is well aware that what made the USA great was its consumer-based economy. Germany never figured that out and relied always upon selling to everyone else.

China on the Rise Report where we laid out that it would surpass the United States as the financial capital of the world was published in 2018. We will be doing an update soon, but all the forecasts are on track and the West in committing economic suicide is merely accelerating the trend.

Larry Kudlow to Host New Fox Business Network Program


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 26, 2021 by Sundance

Former White House Chairman of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, will begin a new venture joining Fox Business News on February 8th.

Kudlow joined the wolverine Trump economic team in 2018 and was complimentary to the objectives of the Trump administration with his affable demeanor.  Secretary Ross, Ambassador Lighthizer, Secretary Mnuchin and Peter Navarro were the teeth, while Larry Kudlow was the one who smoothed the edges.  The entire team complimented each-other brilliantly.

Fox News Media announced on Tuesday that Larry Kudlow, former President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, would host a new weekday program on the Fox Business Network.

Kudlow, who served as director of the National Economic Council from April 2018 until the end of Trump’s presidency this month, will also be a contributor across all Fox News Media platforms — providing “expert financial analysis on domestic and global affairs.”

He will begin work on Feb. 8, and details about his upcoming show “will be announced at a later date,” according to Fox News Media.  (read more)

1871 Act making DC a Corporation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Jan 24, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I am finding it hard to find the Act of 1871 in the Constitution.
Can you please help me find it.
Thanks
JS

ANSWER: The Act of 1871 incorporated the District of Columbia – NOT the United States!. Here is an article about it when it passed. Trump did not dissolve the US and Biden is not the president of just DC.  The United States was NOT bankrupt in 1933. Virtually the entire world defaulted in 1931 and the US dollar rose in value so high that it forced FDR to devalue the dollar for trade purposes. The US ended up with 76% of the world gold reserves because Europe destroyed its economy twice with both world wars. These claims are total nonsense! Municipal governments are always corporations.

Trump may start a third party and the name being floated around is the Patriot Party. Unless 17 Republicans vote guilty and then they can join the Democrats and bar5 him permanently from ever running for president. Keep in mind that there are swamp-creatures also in the Republican party like McConnel. Since they too are up there in years and unlikely to be around for 2024, they would have no problem voting against him to save the swamp.

I really do not see why people need to keep making up crazy stories. All I can assume is they are doing so to deliberately flush people out. Others may simply be unfamiliar with what they are even talking about. There were videos going around that the Supreme Court was trying to tell Trump how to file after they dismissed the Texas suit. That was just laughable! They filed under the original jurisdiction of the Supreme Court whereas claiming they needed to file under Article III was already attempted. That is filing in a district court, then the appeals court, and then to the Supreme Court. If they wanted to take the case they would have. There were two dissents. That was a political decision to preserve the swamp – plain and simple.


Here is the full article.

Categories:ConspiracyRule of Law

Is the Federal Government of the USA a Corporation?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Jan 23, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Some have written in and said then explain why the US is a corporation citing 28 U.S. Code § 3002 – Definitions. Perhaps they did not realize that all local governments are corporations right down to your local municipality. A corporation is a group of people authorized to act as a single entity (legally a person) and recognized as such in law. So what? That does not mean that Trump can dissolve the United States. This is just complete nonsense that gets people into trouble.

So you can kill someone and then as your defense, you claim the US is just a corporation and this has no power to prosecute you? I suggest you ask Wesley Snipes how the claim that the Income Tax is illegal because all the states did not ratify it went for him.

We have to deal with the real world. You will NEVER defeat the United States in a court of law with judges appointed by them and argue there is no power. Never going to happen!

.I am not here to tell you what you would like to hear. Sorry – I am not a politician.