2018 Warning of Coming Bond Crisis

Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Feb 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

War & Real Estate

Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Hello from Europe and a hopeful new year.
In WW2 in Athens, people were exchanging their apartments for a few liters of olive oil, hence real estate went really down.
The short question that you can answer even with a yes or no:
If this year’s aggressivity in terms of war actions will rise, what happens? Will real estate fall on the first stage and then – due to governmental actions – will rise again?
It is a bit confusing while I am trying to understand the mechanism… economy is not simple at all.
Thank you.

ANSWER: The real truth about real estate and war, declines the closer you get to the action. When we look at our models for European real estate, it clearly shows 2023 as a directional change and it appears to be heading into a Panic Cycle for 2027. Our leaders project like we should all go charge into Russia and defeat it in a matter of weeks or just days. Besides the fact that they never discuss that civilian deaths are twice as high as military, they also never talk about how the net worth of everyone in Europe will decline. Your house will decline in value for (1) people are not interested in buying a new home in times of uncertainty, and (2) interest rates will rise sharply due to inflation which is also part of the war cycle.

Lydia, in modern Turkey where coins were invented, shows the impact of war. It was Lydia v Person (Cyrus the Great) and we see the very first debasement in recorded history which accompanies war. The coinage was debased showing roughly a 25% devaluation in the purchasing power during the 6th century BC.

The Peloponnesian War in Greece saw the Athenian Owl reduced from silver to bronze and just silver plated. We find the same trend in Rome. There is NEVER any exception to this rule.

Beware, as the West insists upon expanding this war, you are sacrificing all your life savings in real estate for the political nonsense of our leaders in Europe as a whole. They are true war criminals. They could settle this in a day. Just honor the Minsk Agreement.

Is Digital Currency Safe?

Armstrong economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

It turns out that North Korea-backed hackers stole a record $1.7bn of cryptocurrency in 2022, according to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis. It also appears that they had a hand in the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX where the auditors have reported that around $415m of cryptocurrency has been stolen by hackers.  This is becoming a very interesting story with several facets from funding North Korea to laundering money for Zelensky to pay off the Democrats for the Midterm elections.

There is no way they will let this case go to trial. They will have to cut a deal or they are going to need to have some pumped-up loser kill him when on bail, or Judge Lewis Kaplan will have to revoke his bail and put him in MCC where they can kill him easily and blame another inmate and the guards fell asleep once again and, of course, the camera didn’t work.

At the end of the day, North Korea has been making a lot of money hacking into cryptocurrencies. Your crypto is going to a good cause – World War III to achieve Bill Gate’s dream – population reduction since the vaccines did not kill enough people off – yet.

What is Really Behind the Rise in Interest Rates?

Amstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The European Central Bank has just announced its monetary policy statement that the “will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target.

Besides inflation, the other problem that governments are having is that there is a lack of a bid on the long end. That is why Yellen proposed swamping in long-term for the short-term. Furthermore, it is becoming obvious that Western governments are pushing for war with Russia and China. Institutions have been frantically calling us about restructuring their portfolios because war is coming, they see the debt expanding and rates rising further so why buy the long-term only to lose money?

Then we have Klaus Schwab and George Soros who are pushing for world war perhaps because they are so old and do not expect to be here anyway – so why not take a bunch of us with them?  Like an Egyptian Pharoah who has all his servants killed upon his death to travel with him to the next world to serve him.

So we have inflation, war, and the ultimate end game of defaulting on the debt as they did after World War II and creating a new Bretton Woods with cryptocurrency so they can track everything we do. Welcome to the wonderland of Klaus Schwab where you own nothing, and will be a mindless ant in a clever Lenistic world of perfect order and absolute control.

Gold v Digital Fiat & Marxism

Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Feb 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi AE…so gov’t “money” (fiat currency) will become just some abstract floating measurement of value, an electronic entry in an electronic account in the cybersphere. As these various so-called gov’ts become less reliable, even between themselves, do you see the possibility of them simply skipping their phony currencies, & trading directly in gold. Russia could ship a specific quantity of crude to China, for a specific amount of gold bars. Your argument about the impracticality of a gold-backed currency makes sense, but what about large transactions being settled in gold?


ANSWER: The entire problem that people do not grasp with regard to any return to a gold standard is that if the money supply is FIXED in any way, that necessitates the collapse of SOCIALISM. The two are directly linked. Politicians only know how to run with deficits. Vote for me and I will give you this or that!

The Bretton Woods gold standard collapsed because they FIXED the price of gold at $35, but they continued to print money far beyond the supply of gold at that fixed price. In addition, you have a business cycle. There will be times when no matter what the money might be, there will be boom times when the value of money declines and the asset values rise.

This argument over gold v fiat is absolutely just nonsense. The wealth of any nation is the productive capacity of its people. For centuries, the business cycle has existed and that is the entire cause for the “inflation” in assets when money declines in value, and then the “deflation” in assets with the value of money rises. Arguing over what we use for money will NEVER stop the business cycle.

The cycle is also in part driven by all governments. It becomes a drug of power that is abused. It would not matter what we use for money right now, they want to create World War III so they can default, and escape from the abuse of this Marxism that they have turned into a system of borrowing every year with no intention of paying anything back. But we have reached the confrontation between Keynesianism where central banks are expected to prevent inflation by rising interest rates, but that has no impact on the government which has become the biggest borrower in the system.

We are going BUST not because of the money we use, but because of the abuse of power in government which has always existed since ancient times.

Trust me. Forget gold standards. They will never work because all governments act only in their own self-interest. You should have learned that with COVID. They will never admit any mistake EVER! It is far better to keep gold on our side of the table and we can then use it as a hedge against governments. They are seeking to move to digital currencies ONLY so they can track when you hired the 16-year-old girl next door to babysit for you so they can go after her for the government’s 50% share.

Even Bitcoin is fiat. There is no backing. People have dived headfirst into cryptocurrency on the entire proposition that they are limited. All they have done is proven my point. Money, historically, has been everything from seashells and cattle to bronze, silver, and gold. Of all the various forms of money, only bronze and cattle had any real commodity value based on utility.

The Egyptians really invented paper money for the farmers would deposit their grain and receive a receipt which was a bearer instrument used in trade. They also used raw metal, not coins, and traded based on weight, as it stated in the Bible. Here is a piece of pottery from Egypt recording a complaint about taxes written in Greek. It stated the sum amounted to a total of 90 talents of silver with 15 talents of tax on the transfer of land – 16.6%.

For thousands of years, Egypt had no coins until it was conquered by Alexander the Great, and upon his death, his general Ptolemy I (305/304 – 282 BC) took the throne and it was his Greek line from which Cleopatra VIII came – not Egyptian.

Our system is starting to implode. Never in the history of human civilization have governments demanded taxes on income requiring reporting every year. This was the gift of Karl Marx. Just as this Egyptian tax on the transfer of land, we see that property taxes and a form of sales tax were the norms.

The American Constitution was intended to give thenational government greater power to raise revenue because the previous Articles of Confederation had been a fiscal disaster. Nevertheless, most people remained fearful of taxation by governments. Indirect taxes were to be the way to secure our liberty from tyrannical governments. It was generally understood that indirect taxes meant taxes on consumption like a retail sales tax and/or excise taxes on imports. It was believed that indirect taxes did not lend themselves to abuse by tyrannical governments. Consequently, the general belief was that “direct taxes” has to be taken off the table. Incomes taxes, throwing out the window of all the wisdom of the ages, were imposed by the new age of Marxism in 1913.

Our computer warns that 2025 will be the turning point in Marxism.

Interest Rates & the Fed

Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Feb 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark by 25 bps, as expected. The Fed fully understands that the manipulation of the CPI is a necessary aspect both for containing government benefits and understating inflation also results in high tax revenues. The market loves hope, and as a result, they focused on the warning that we’ll be in restrictive territory for just a bit longer. Most still believe that there will be a slowdown in inflation just ahead.

The Fed’s cautionary commentary saying that the “disinflation process” has started triggered shares to jump ending up 1%. This shows how insane the analysis had become that they cheer a recession and think that lower interest rates are bullish for the stock market. Obviously, they just listen to the talking heads on TV and have never bothered to look at reality. When interest rates decline, so has the stock market. Interest rates rose for the entire Trump Rally, and they crashed during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. For the life of me, I just shake my head when the talking heads cheer lower rates and spread doom and gloom with higher rates.

Fox News – “ominous Great Depression warning”

Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Fox Business is reporting that economic conditions are much worse than you are being told.  Unfortunately, this is the conclusion when you have ZERO understanding of the historical trends and economic conditions. It is true that the shortages of COVID have caused prices to rise faster than economic growth and most incomes.  Therefore, they conclude that our standard of living has been rapidly declining.  The number reveals that more than one-third of all U.S. young adults are being supported in part by their parents. Thanks to COVID, this disrupted society far greater than anyone is reporting. In addition to the shortages because of the lockdowns, by the end of 2020, more than half of young adults in America were living with one or both parents. That statistic actually exceeded the record high of the Great Depression.

Here is the worst part of this analysis. Many are jumping on the bandwagon claiming that the decline in real disposable income has been the largest since 1932 and therefore, this is a warning sign of a Great Depression is coming. They seem to be focused on the fact that the GDP report showed a significant decline in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. Now let’s look closer!

First of all, the entire reason why unemployment rise to 25% during the latter part of the Great Depression was the Dust Bowl. Why? At that time, about 40% of the civil workforce was still agrarian. The Dust Bowl meant job loss. If you could not even plant crops, there was no need for people to pick crops.

Service during the Great Depression accounted for 17% of the workforce compared to 44%+ today. Government, federal, state, and local, was 22% of the civil workforce during the Great Depression compared to 33% by 1980. Things have continued to evolve and by 2019, services represent 79.41%. Agriculture is now a tiny fraction of what it once was – 1.41%.

In the USA, at the state level, their share of the civil workforce varies greatly. Florida is at about 11.3% compared to New Mexico which is 22.5% – a government employee’s paradise. The lowest is Michigan at 10.1%.

During the Great Depression, the entire reason for the collapse in disposable income was the collapse in agriculture which created a collapse in income due to massive unemployment. That is totally different from the crisis we have today.

Here we have rising prices due to shortages and then central banks raising interest rates in a fool’s quest to stop inflation when it is not based on speculation. Moreover, the biggest borrower is the government, and rising interest rates will only increase their exposure to keep rolling over the debt. Therefore, governments have been borrowing year after year. What happens when the public no longer buys their debt? Real disposable income has been collapsing for completely different reasons since 1932. Here we have the costs of everything rising and then these people want war with Russia and China. Every war since the start of recorded history has resulted in inflation. Add to this, the total insanity of trying to end climate change by outlawing fossil fuels at a time when the climate is prone to getting colder.

We are already witnessing riots around the world BECAUSE of inflation. During the Great Depression, people were suffering from DEFLATION. So comparing just that statistic of a decline in personal income and projecting we now face a Great Depression, does not even qualify to be classified as analysis. That is no different from someone warning that carrots must be lethal because everyone who has ever eaten a carrot has obviously died.

Job Posting for New Head of Digital Currency UK Government

Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jan 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Head of Central Bank Digital Currency
HM Treasury
Apply before 11:55 pm on Tuesday 7th February 2023
Key Accountabilities

The successful candidate will be responsible for leadership of HM Treasury’s work on a potential digital pound – a UK central bank digital currency (CBDC). This work is important, complex and cross-cutting, and the leadership will involve extensive engagement across and beyond HM Treasury.
Digital innovation is changing the landscape for payments and money. The use of physical money is declining while new forms of private sector digital money are emerging. These changes offer exciting opportunities for UK businesses and consumers, but also present new challenges and risks. This has motivated countries around the world to explore digital versions of central bank money.

Today, the Bank of England issues only physical bank notes. A digital pound would be a new form of digital money for use by households and businesses issued directly by the Bank of England.

Treasury and the Bank of England are working together through the CBDC Taskforce to explore the case for a digital pound. Treasury and the Bank of England have committed to consult jointly on a potential digital pound, and the successful candidate will lead the Treasury team in the wake of the consultation’s issuance, including working with the Bank of England to consider consultation responses. The forward timeline for the work has been set out by Ministers and the Bank of England, and the successful candidate will be responsible for setting strategic direction within Treasury to deliver on that plan.

Military Script – Has it Been Used for Centuries?

Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies Re-Posted Jan 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Limes denarius (Lim-ace) or coins of the borders, may be another example of coins of necessity issued because of a shortage of silver in the border regions. It has also been suggested that they may also be officially sanctioned issues for use in regions where political unrest made it hazardous to ship large amounts of silver. Others have suggested that they were used to pay barbarians on the fringes of the empire for local work.

The most likely reason for their issue is based upon history repeats because human nature and its decision process will lead to the same conclusion no matter what the century. Therefore, it also remains possible that these were military scripts paid to soldiers on the front lines just as they did during World Wars I and II to pay locals. They would have reduced the need for vast amounts of precious metals on the front line. These bronze issues of denarii could have served troops on the front and been redeemable for good coinage when they returned to the stable regions. Whatever the reason, many of these coins exist. They have been often viewed as possibly “coins of necessity” issued during periods of a lack of silver. Some examples may still bear traces of a very thin silver wash.

A “Limes Denarius” were struck from official dies. Thus, these AE denarii official issues use the same dies as those intended for the silver denarii. However, there are also some that appear to be cast from typical clay forgers’ dies and sometimes may have been cast in molds. There are no written accounts of this practice within the official monetary system. However, if troops are paid with real money and they lose a battle, the opponent will then seize whatever money they had and use it to further fund their operations. If the soldiers only have a military script, then there is no financial benefit to the opponent if they should defeat your troops.

The Coming Great Global Default

Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin
Could you please describe more in detail what you are expecting when talking about the breakdown of the monetary system?
Will there be differences between countries like Germany and Switzerland for example? Especially regarding pension systems.
I assume, there might be big differences between countries.
Many thanks and best regards,

ANSWER: The monetary system collapsed with the winning of the American Revolution. The state currencies and the federal Continental Currency were all exchangeable to the new currency which became the U.S. dollar. There was a great disparity among the states with each being rated by the marketplace for the swap. Even when they created the Euro, there were differences between each currency.

The IMF right now is pushing very hard behind the curtain to replace the dollar with an IMF digital currency that they want to become the reserve currency. This would be EXTREMELY dangerous for the IMF is deep in corruption. The complaint of China, for example, is that the dollar is the reserve currency and they see that as a dangerous power in the hands of an adversary.

I have written much on the real problem of the dollar acting as the reserve currency and that this has thrust the Federal Reserve into the default role of the central bank of the world. The problem is all the propaganda against the Fed that is spun by the goldbugs which totally distorts the real crisis. They try to sell gold only on the quantity theory of money which dates back to the 17th century. It is so antiquated it is laughable. It is entirely domestic-focused to the exclusion of the world economy and international capital flows. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve is also living in the past and only sees the economy in domestic terms making it Fed Policy v Fiscal Policy, over which they have no control.

Only when you understand international capital flow movement will you ever even catch a glimpse of the real world. World War I sent the capital fleeing Europe and rushing to America. Because that capital was here, it increased the domestic buying power and the Europeans made the 1920s ROAR. They were participating in the Auto-Stock-Boom.

The first G4 took place in 1927 when the other central banks argued that the US had to lower its interest rates to deflect international capital which was needed in Europe to rebuild. Indeed, the capital inflows peaked in 1927 and began to decline. But it was the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931 that compelled major capital outflows to cover losses at home.

Hoover explained the crisis in 1931 in his Memoirs. So to answer your question will take a major report which I intend to publish. The subject is highly complicated and there will be major divergences that people must be aware of. The bottom line is that all governments intend to default on their prior debts. That is what unfolded even with the collapse of the Continental Government after winning the American Revolution.

We see similar outcomes also in France with their Revolution. We are staring into the eyes of a major global default in debt and we are on schedule cyclically for the next sovereign default period.