QUESTION: Marty, at the Orlando WEC, I asked you if your real estate forecasts for residential included condos. I believe you said no. I bought a house when your index elected a monthly bullish reversal in June 2020. Everything seems to have doubled since. Do you think your forecast into 2023 is influenced by the excessive spending of Biden?
Thank you.
KW
ANSWER: Yes, this is the single-family home index. It does not include commercial real estate or condos. It is always a combination of influences. It appears that Biden has provided the straw that broke the back of deflation. Central banks have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2008 without success. This has been largely caused by the collapse in confidence in the future. When people fear the future, they save. Increasing the money supply does nothing until the people decide to spend it.
One of the factors that confirmed to me that we would be heading into progressive inflation long-term was the fact that this Residential Index elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal at the end of 2012. That confirmed the long-term trend had changed. However, urban condo and commercial properties were forming a divergence. I assumed that was being caused by the debt and rising taxes in cities. In that regard, I suppose I was only partially correct, for the rest has been the brain-dead response to COVID.
For example, locking people down and causing them to lose jobs has resulted in a sharp rise in violence. Not just mass shootings, but all sorts of conflicts from domestic disputes to outright feuds. Cities, such as Philadelphia and New York, have sections in which the police have totally lost control. It is debatable if they will ever be able to restore civility to these regions. While Fauci claims to ignore the Constitutional violations, his agenda in helping Gates and Schwab is more than simply preparing society for the Great Reset. He is furthering the collapse of urban civility and this trend is part of what is driving this index.
I would expect to see this escalate and if we make a new high on this index and close above last year’s high, single-family homes outside of urban centers will rise sharply into 2023.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 22, 2021 | Sundance | 208 Comments
This is just about representative of every wolverine mom in the nation. The ridiculous COVID mandates have thrown common sense out the window. During a Georgia school board meeting, this mom passionately speaks for many. She is withdrawing her consent:
..”If the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.”.. ~Sam Adams
The power of government comes from the people; or as we say in the U.S. “from the consent of the governed.” When people lead, the politicians are forced to follow. Without implied consent the municipal or state government has no power. None.
Unfortunately the totalitarian authority might label this mom a subversive dissident voice; consider her defiance a reason for targeting and re-education; and then engage child protective services in the removal of her children. It would not surprise me to see DHS show up at her door with an armed FBI SWAT team to deliver a no-knock warrant for her arrest. She is right. She is petitioning her government and eloquently expressing her grievances; but so far the bureaucracy doesn’t care…. This is why all people need to stand up and support the individuals pushing back.
The power of the local, regional or state authority comes from the expressed consent of the people. As soon as the majority of people deny that consent, those officials and state authoritarians lose all of their power. Yes, it really is that simple.
Those who construct the systems of control need to weaponize fear. Fear of arrest; fear of losing a business; fear of losing liberty or financial security. Local, regional and state officials rely on fear. As soon as We The People are no longer fearful, the control ends.
The overwhelming majority of dictates around COVID-19 mitigation are not laws. There was no debate; no input from representative government; and no option for the public to weigh-in on the decisions.
All unilateral rules are arbitrary, and despite many proclamations to the contrary, they rely upon voluntary compliance. As soon as citizens no longer voluntarily comply, the term of the rules has expired. Liberty is inherent. The removal of liberty requires consent.
If one person refuses to comply government can, and likely will, intervene. However, if tens of thousands rebuke these unconstitutional decrees, there isn’t a damn thing govt can do to stop it… and they know it. This is why some state governors are quickly starting to retract or modify their dictates.
A non-compliant snowball becomes an unstoppable freedom avalanche.
Local, regional and state officials know they can control the behavior of an individual. If one barber shop opens, the owner becomes a target. However, those officials also know they cannot control the behavior of the majority. If every barber shop and beauty salon in town opens… there is absolutely nothing the government can do about it.
The power of the local, regional or state authority comes from the expressed consent of the people. As soon as the majority of people deny that consent, those officials and state authoritarians lose all of their power.
Yes, it really is that simple.
Those who construct the systems of control need to weaponize fear. Fear of arrest; fear of losing a business; fear of losing liberty or financial security. Local, regional and state officials rely on fear. As soon as the people are no longer fearful, the control ends.
The overwhelming majority of dictates around COVID-19 mitigation are not laws. There was no debate; no input from representative government; and no option for the public to weigh-in on the decisions.
All unilateral rules are arbitrary, and despite many proclamations to the contrary, they rely upon voluntary compliance. As soon as citizens no longer voluntarily comply, the term of the rules has expired.
QUESTION: As a programmer and a client of Socrates, I can tell this is not some neural net or deep learning AI program. What you have created goes far beyond that. Do you care to share your design?
HS
ANSWER: No. I fooled around with neural nets back in the 80s. I could see they would never accomplish what was necessary for global analysis. The same was true about Deep Learning. Those are solutions for one-dimensional objectives, in my opinion. IBM spent untold amounts on its Watson. They thought it would be able to cure cancer. It failed.
What makes Socrates unique is that I had to TEACH it how I would analyze. It is not as simple as throwing in all the data and hoping something will create itself, as in neural nets. You can do that with a simple problem like creating an AI program to determine if making a loan will have a higher probability of default or not. You feed in all the past history and sort according to income, purpose, etc. That will work most of the time. However, what happens if there is an economic shock such as shutting down businesses due to COVID? Or perhaps a war emerges. No program created in such a manner will ever be able to forecast those external factors.
Even all the high-frequency trading programs are one-dimensional. The collapse of Archegos Capital is indicative of what happens with a one-dimensional program which inevitably will be used with personal opinion. Even the Long-Term Capital Management collapse was the same problem. They even wrote a book about that – “When Genius Failed.” These one-dimensional programs will work nicely until there is an outside external force that they can not see coming.
To accomplish what Socrates does is far beyond anything you can imagine. The variables are off the charts, and seeing the future even with the arrays involved 72 separate models. We must understand that most AI programs that people write are still very one-dimensional and lack nonlinear concepts.
Unfortunately, 99% of all programs that people claim are Artificial Intelligence are really just expert systems. For example, you could take every disease and list its symptoms. Then you add a query and the program would simply look up the disease based upon the symptom. This would probably be better than seeing most doctors for that is why they always say get a second opinion. This type of program is not AI, for there is no true independent thinking process taking place. Nevertheless, this is what is typically marketed as AI. This has created in and of itself a false impression of what Schwab calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Even facial recognition is simply a pattern comparison. Nothing is truly taking place other than a lookup system with a database.
What is online is a small fraction of what Socrates does. We intend to provide a desktop program that will be able to tap into language and voice capabilities. We can deliver voice via the internet, but trying to accept voice input from the client over the internet is a different problem altogether.
When Schwab boasts about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, he is clueless as to what that would even entail. You will not find even one mainstream media outlet that would dare to write a story that Socrates even exists. The analysis would change everything, for it is not based upon “opinion,” which they love to provide. Additionally, Schwab would block any press on Socrates because it also forecasts that this cabal of his fails in the end. Everything Schwab envisions is still one-dimensional. He has no idea of the complexity of the nonlinear design necessary to really provide a valid methodology for forecasting.
The Democrats are twisting the facts as always by claiming DeSantis is raising taxes on consumers and cutting taxes for business. The bill he just signed is estimated to tax consumers $1 billion a year, with the money first earmarked for the unemployment trust fund, which became depleted because of massive job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Businesses pay taxes that go into the trust fund and, without another source of money, would have faced higher taxes to replenish the fund. But what they do not tell the people is that pushing higher unemployment taxes on business actually means that comes out of your paycheck.
The Democrats just cannot bring themselves to ever tell the truth. While I am not in favor of raising sales taxes on everything I buy online, the net effect is that those with jobs would be paying the tax for those who lost their jobs thanks to lockdowns and COVID. Let’s call this what it really is — a COVID Tax.
QUESTION: Would you cut off a corporate client who is endorsing this WOKE movement?
LD
ANSWER: Any corporation seeking to take out models while joining Schwab’s Stakeholder Corporate Activism can seek forecasting elsewhere. If Big Tech can have guidelines that justify stopping people from speaking or posting, then we too can adopt “community guidelines” because enough is enough. I have NO INTENTION of providing any assistance to any corporation that has joined Schwab in becoming a political activist. I personally think shareholders have a right to bring a lawsuit against the company and to remove all directors using corporate funds for their own political agenda. That, to me, is called FRAUD! Politics has no place in our sports any more than it does in the boardroom. Any company that allows its directors to use corporate funds to further their personal political agenda has no business in our economy.
The only time corporate activism is remotely justified is when some policy directly impacts the business of that corporation. Woke culture has nothing to do with the economy. I believe any public corporation engaged in “stakeholder economics” and political activism is at the personal decision of its directors, which is a violation of their fiduciary duty to their shareholders, and as such, should be DELISTED from any exchange!
Why is this game mentally and physically so hard to learn… normally every trade has a 50:50 chance but if I enter the market everything is going „different“. Just trade against me and you will become even much richer, its crazy!
I think my biggest mistake is to enter a trade way too early … when I read the market could turn (maybe in 2 weeks) my reaction was /is „going short immediately“ – its just so dumb – but that is what brought me the heaviest losses this year. Shorted the DOW from the 30k level again and again.
Socrates is like a market navigation – I know that – and when the navy says right I drove left – always in fear the market could crash like last February.
…
maybe you can wright a bit more on your blog – what were your easiest secrets to become a successful trader. maybe a sample account which etf´s / stocks are promising for the rest of 2021 or some live trading sessions via chat on your socrates platform.
…
Sorry for disturbing you again and again – but I know you are the only man who really know how this game works and you might understand my „little“ problems. BTW: nice call for the top in Bitcoin !!!
THANK YOU
Have a good day and best wishes.
O
ANSWER: The most common problems in trading have been (1) over-trading and (2) anticipation.
Many think they are limiting their risk by trading too frequently. They do not want to risk, say $100, so they continually anticipate a trade and lose $20 ten times in a row. The real secret to trading is recognizing that your opponent is really yourself.
The problem with systems that require human judgment is that they expose your human frailties. Whether it is looking at technical patterns, candlesticks, or wave patterns, all of these forms of analysis require experience and whether you have a natural tendency to be artistic. Those who have an artistic eye can see patterns easier than those that do not. They will see a face in a cloud shape, but others will say they are nuts as it’s just a cloud.
The key is to try to eliminate that human judgment as much as possible. You only need to look at the setup when the price is reached, but during the time target. The monthly Array pinpointed April since the start of this year. Then you look at the Weekly, and it targeted last week with a Directional Change and higher volatility starting this week. Then look at the Daily level. This way, you are not looking at patterns yourself and acting on a hunch. Even the Global Market Watch came up with April as a possible important high, and that is just a pattern recognition model.
With every trade, you must always define where you are RIGHT and when you are WRONG. There are no DEPENDS once you put on a trade. We only have a DEPEND in the setup. Did it reach the time and the price? Other than that, once you are in, some people hate to take the loss because it is acknowledging they were wrong. If you have the setup, then selling against the high on that target week or day with a stop above that high makes sense, and it is a lower risk. If you think it will crash, so you keep selling on a hunch, you will lose.
Consequently, people who are into gold and just blame others because gold has not rallied as they expected are simply people who will never learn how to trade. Mistakes are important. We pay dearly for them, so pay attention. That is how we learn and advance in life. Every parent tells their child not to stick their finger in the flame of a candle. We all do. We have to learn for ourselves.
Remember, you are your real opponent. So make peace with yourself. Come to a truce.
It probably shouldn’t be surprising, but it is disappointing that so many people are eagerly doing whatever a small sliver of humanity tells them to do.
The latter are the ruling oligarchy. They consist of centi-billionaires and perhaps even trillionaires. They own and control most of the valuable land, the biggest banks, our security agencies, our education system, and dutiful politicians who do their bidding. The CIA-controlled corporate media is used to brainwash the public into compliance.
Compliance is achieved through means of fear more than force. The ruling caste and the pharmaceutical industrial complex claim we must voluntarily give up our freedom in exchange for safety. It’s for our own good! You want to save lives, don’t you?
The lever pushers at the top of the pyramid are using science to keep people in lockstep obeisance. We must do as we’re told because they claim to have the logical and scientific high ground. We must take their experimental jabs to prove we’re good humans who care about others. Doing so doesn’t mean there won’t be more lockdowns and social distancing. Masks have become permanent even though their own science shows masks do more harm and good. You see, they suspend science in cases such as mask wearing, rioting, and the number of genders. A man can become a woman and vice versa just because they say it’s science instead of what it really is—insanity. Their experimental gene therapy jabs and vaccines are safe even though thousands experience severe side effects and death. The ruling class says they’re safe and effective, so most of the public ignores hard evidence to the contrary. Too many people are not in touch with reality and fear makes that mental illness possible.
Nearly half the population has succumbed to such brainwashing. They’ve deeply swallowed the lies doled out by the one percent and have done so hook, line, sinker, and globalist rod and reel.
How much longer can they use fear to herd us toward our own demise? Indefinitely. They’ll trot out new viruses—real or imagined—and vaccines will become an annual event. Then perhaps even monthly. Why not? People appear to enjoy getting the jabs. They receive a virtue signaling high from them.
People need to stop participating in their own demise. Tune out CNN. Don’t take the shots—you’re not a lab rat! Stop wearing the masks. Ignore the lockdowns. Support small businesses. They can’t arrest all of us.
Most of all, stop being afraid—is it that difficult?
—Ben Garrison
Tina- How to stop being afraid? Turn off the TV News, Don’t read newspapers, take a break from social media tech tyrants like Facebook who brainwash you with their “fact checkers and disinformation campaigns.”
Reminder if the plannedemic was real they would not spend millions on TV commercials and celebrity endorsements to convince you to get the jab.
The Nuremberg Code is also being ignored (The Nuremberg Code, included a new, comprehensive, and absolute requirement of informed consent (principle 1), and a new right of the subject to withdraw from participation in an experiment (principle 9.)
A must watch video on Bill Gates and his work to transform the world into his vision of what the common man should be; which is nothing more than neutered worker ants doing the bidding of the king of the world Bill Gates!
QUESTION: Do Americans have to be concerned about having money in foreign exchanges in places like London or other European countries if they impose capital controls? Is this as big a risk for Americans and you wrote it is for Europeans?
EM
ANSWER: Yes. They will require you to prove that you are not fronting for someone else. When I was going to work for a few months in Singapore, a friend of mine there asked if he could find me a condo to rent rather than a hotel. He put down the rent deposit, and I wired off $6,000. Two months later, when I got there, he said he never got the wire. I called my bank and told them to put on a trace, and HSBC returned the wire that day. They refused to credit his account because they could not verify I had no ownership in his account. I had to write him a check. Capital controls can be a real problem even for legitimate transfers.
COMMENT: Now we finally have confirmation that global warming is true!
C
REPLY: Well, as Charles Manson is now convinced, we definitely know it is not true.
QUESTION: The Open Letter to Dr. Bonnie Henry from BC Physician re: Moderna Vaccine Reactions is very enlightening. Why nobody ever listens?
ANSWER: This is an agenda. At the very least, it seems to be used as a control mechanism to identify the sheep from the free thinkers.
COMMENT: Michigan this week directed state residents as young as two years old to begin wearing masks in the hopes that doing so will help bring down the state’s coronavirus numbers. It is time to move. It is just insane here.
REPLY: They never read the Washington Post article on all the studies from the Spanish Flu of 1918 that showed that masks were “useless,” and Fauci knew that. This is indoctrinating children for the permanent social distancing they are creating, precisely as was the case in East Germany. Why people listen to anything Fauci says is beyond me. He is part of the WEF cabal against Americans.
COMMENT: Martin,
I believe court packing will put the defining stamp on the end of the last remaining semblances that the US is a constitutional republic. 1A, 2A, 4A, etc will all be quickly done in. States will be added as necessary by congressional dictate to cement permanent ruling class control. It was a good run, unfortunately, those alive today (we) have to face these times and need to figure out how to best move forward. We have to continue to work and to do what it takes and all that we can to do our best to minimize and stymie the authoritarian shift. If people are paying attention they know it’s going to be chaos. If they follow you they know that faith in government is disappearing rapidly. I believe that now more than ever in modern history people need to be involved with the most important level of government, the local one – municipalities, county boards, school boards, sheriff dept, PTA’s, etc. As the country continues to devolve and fracture it will be critical to support the local people that stand for what you do. If you can’t find any people that you can support then you need to be that person…or move to find that person.
Regards,
JJ
REPLY: Yes, where you live is important. The Democratic states up North will only become far more restrictive and taxes will rise as they struggle to cover their expenses because they locked down their economies. Office buildings remain unoccupied but that has no impact on property taxes. This is part of the shift in real estate from URBAN to SUBURBAN, which will dominate the trend from here into 2037.
COMMENT: FYI. I am signed up to receive your blog automatically. I have read them for years. A couple years ago they would intermittently end up in my junk folder. In the last year they went there consistently. Even though I marked them as NOT JUNK. Then for about two months they showed up without issue. Now, nothing. No matter what I do My HOTMAIL account will not even acknowledge anything from your site. Yes you are marked in my safe sender list. I have now switched to protonmail. Thank you for what you do.
GTM
QUESTION: Thanks for delineating the various laws against forced and coerced vaccinations. Perhaps it is time to find experts who will call a crime against humanity a crime against humanity. Refusing evacuation to people fleeing deadly volcanic eruptions is precisely what the Nuremberg protocols were designed to criminalize. In my understanding, it is an active, capital crime, which supersedes all other governmental laws. Admittedly, I come from a very pro-individualist state, Texas, where we are free to personally use deadly force in self-defense, and defense of others, in many circumstances.
Yet the Nuremberg principles also enshrined such rights and duties. If an authority locked unvaccinated people in a burning building, law enforcement would be criminally liable for enforcing that order. In some circumstances, they would have an active duty to use force to free the unvaccinated people, including deadly force. I believe the World is, shockingly, back in the mid 20th Century nightmare where organizations and individuals are, openly and otherwise, engaged in massive crimes against humanity, under the color of laws which are, literally, crimes against humanity. That means they are crimes that cannot be excused, and for which capital punishment is available. That means that, for example, a leader forcing vaccination or death on people would, at Nuremberg, have been convicted of a capital crime, and their minions would have been held to have a duty to stop them, including the use of deadly force.
Now we see private businesses compelling vaccinations with experimental drugs, at risk of losing one’s livelihood, tuition, etc. This is a crime against humanity. There is no immunity, either institutional or personal. I wonder what airline executives, college presidents, multinational corporate officers, petty bureaucrats, and World leaders would do if they realized people with guns could arrest them, take their property, try them in new courts, jail them, and even execute them, for what they are doing?
DB
ANSWER: The so-called “Nuremberg Laws” was a crucial step in Nazi racial laws that led to the marginalization of German Jews and ultimately to their segregation, confinement, and extermination. These were key pieces of evidence in the trials, which resulted in 12 death sentences and life or long sentences for other Third Reich leaders. In the United States, it is only illegal to experiment on humans with chemical or biological weapons. So regardless of prosecuting the Germans at Nuremberg, biological experiments are not illegal in the USA for this reasons (see: 50 U.S. Code § 1520a – Restrictions on use of human subjects for testing of chemical or biological agents). They are already experimenting on even merging human DNA with that of Apes— I suppose that makes the movie “Planet of the Apes” possible. There may also be a bend of human DNA with cats going on. This is all very disturbing.
The United States is not part of the International Court. They refused to join and will not recognize any prosecution of an American for war crimes or medical experiments. So while international law requires the consent of a person for human experimentation, they cannot be prosecuted in the United States under the theory of Nuremberg principles. The US is not a state party to the Rome Statute. The US participated in the negotiations that led to the creation of the court. However, in 1998 the US was one of only seven countries – along with China, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Qatar, and Yemen – that voted against the Rome Statute.
QUESTION: Marty,
The real question is not how Washington works traditionally, but how it is working today until the “Drunken Sailor”. We are in a terrible crisis, which is intent on unalterably changing America. That has not been the agenda of the Republicans and that is the current agenda of the Democrats, even if they point a gun at the heads of the Democratic Congressmen. If they cannot stand up for the Constitution as it was written, than they are evil. If they agree that the Bill of Rights is whatever the Radical Left says it is, they are evil. If they agree what the Woke mob says it means, they are evil. If they desire to destroy the police, who play a vital role in civilized society, they are evil. If they have cannot stand up for the First or any other Amendment in the Bill of Rights, they are evil, whether they are Democrat or Republican.
In short, by your saying, that’s the way Washington works, you are shrugging your shoulders at evil. Take a Stand that requires courage and integrity! Not supporting a viable border is evil. It is not Democratic or Republican, it is evil. The Holocaust was evil. That a Congressional Committee failed left out the word Jew in its statement commemorating the Holocaust of “Six Million” is evil. In Kiev, Ukraine, the Soviet Union put up a plaque commemorating the slaughter of over 33,000 Jews in a single day, but failed to mention that the victims were Jews. That is evil and no different than a Congressional Committee doing the same thing.
Get a backbone!
DS
ANSWER: I am explaining the system. I am not the leader of a revolution. That will come. The computer is objective in its forecasts and I must comply with that position. Everyone can have an opinion. What I do is not about my personal opinion, as opinions are not relevant. People want to know the computer forecasts, for that is the only objective source we have in the middle of this mess.
REPLY: Honestly, we have the dumbest politicians in human history. This is all part of the Great Reset where they know they will destroy the economy so they can then “Build Back Better,” but in the process, they will most likely lead to wars and a reduction in the population which seems to be their obsession.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 