Posted originally on Jun 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
This is the first installment for our Institutional Clients concerning the two countries at the greatest risk of DEFAULT – Japan and Germany. We have provided the forecast for Japan’s default and explained in detail the internal battle between the Government, the Bank of Japan, and the Private Sector. This report exposes the truth about who holds what and the threat to instability as Japan also tries to cozy up close to NATO as a diversion for its fiscal mismanagement.
Investors have long fretted about the sustainability of Japan’s government debt as other nations, including Germany, are facing unsustainable fiscal mismanagement across the developed world. Japan has garnered the most attention due to its highest debt load relative to economic output and the heaviest debt-service burden. At the same time, the excuse has been that they are mostly self-funded, and as such, appearances are deceptive. Still, all Western nations are on a collision course with a sovereign debt crisis that will bring them all crashing down when the line at the door stops buying the new debt to roll over the old.
Japan’s fiscal mismanagement is not significantly worse than that of others. The pandemic, climate change, sluggish growth, and financial crises, accompanied by a lack of confidence, have led to an increase in government debt for many wealthy countries. At more than 250% of GDP, Japan’s gross debt stands out. Combined with sluggish growth and a shrinking population, many financiers and economists see it as an existential risk. The real question this report addresses is the real story behind the curtain, and when does this come to a head?
Postedoriginally on Jun 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong,
No honest person, whether American or Palestinian believes terrorists should push the US government and its people around. But then why are you so disinterested that Israel and the US created Hamas expressly for the public to witness a TV drama via the fake news of US and Israel’s fake victimization? Trump and Harris are not about peace in the middle east, and Trump while safer for Americans is knowingly instituting the open air concentration camp to annihilate the original native people of that land who were dumped these foreign Israeli aliens in 1948.
The situation is not improved under Trump, and while I have deep respect for your work, you cannot be so heartless as to believe this people should be annihilated like rats all for a terrorist faction that arose when the alien people after 1948 acquired US missiles and began starvation campaigns and massacres of their people. Would it be fine if Americans were put in camps, rounded up into high rise buildings, and then had the buildings demolished with them inside because “a domestic terrorist was on the third floor”?
Palestinians today are living the 2025 Holodomor no different than the Ukrainians did. If you agree (or disagree) you will write a piece on this, because I know that sound-minded people around the world are of the same view on this issue. Shem Tov is a dual citizen by the way. Israeli dual citizens are not loyal to the US, I’m sorry to say, and his story and Trump’s is not a patriotic one.
Best regards
L
ANSWER: I’ve discussed the ongoing tragedies in Gaza at length in other blog posts. My only firm stance–I am against governments that force war and destruction upon their people. I receive backlash from those who are pro-Israel and pro-Palestine for explaining the geopolitical nature of what is occurring in that region. The Hamas terrorists feared a Trump victory, as I noted in the article you are questioning, which equates to increased protection for the United States. Few speak on how the US government uses regime change to maintain dominance throughout the world.
USAID had a budget that surpassed the budgets of the CIA and the State Department. America was directly funding its enemies because intelligence agencies and unelected bureaucrats manipulate global events for geopolitical purposes. USAID is often used as a front for CIA operations, particularly in regions where the US wants to destabilize governments that don’t align with Western interests. Funding is allegedly channeled through NGOs and civil society groups that support uprisings or color revolutions (e.g., Ukraine in 2014, the Arab Spring).
The regime change tactic is not limited to the Middle East. I penned a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi in February 2025, explaining U.S. efforts to fund opposition movements in Russia dating back to 2000. “The Plot to Seize Russia” details the lengths that the neocons have gone through for decades on their quest to conquer Russia, which partially began by a regime change in Ukraine that permitted a comedian to rule over the nation.
Current Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa was installed by the CIA. I explain in the linked article that Syria’s abundance of oil reserves and geographic location make it prime real estate for Western influence. America captured Ahmed al-Sharaa while he was fighting for Al Qaeda in Iraq, and then simply released him, or so we are told. The truth of the matter is that he was almost certainly compromised and turned into a CIA asset during this time period. Equally as important, the US has a new battleground for its proxy war against Russia. Trump signed numerous trade deals in the Middle East with partners who are eager to rebuild Syria and usurp its currently non-existent infrastructure. Again, I explained at length the devastation that the Syrian people experienced after 14 years of war.
Israel is a vassal state. “If there were not an Israel, we’d have to invent one,” Joe Biden admitted back in 1986 when he was a Senator. Israel is a strategic military base for the West. It permitted America to keep an eye on not just oil but opium as well. America did not need to “create” an Israel since Britain basically did back in 1948. Israel is not a charity and the West does not fund it because of religion. Yes, Israel was zoned for those of Jewish faith after World War II, but the true reason it was created was to provide the Allies with power in the Middle East.
America alone, prior to the Hamas attack, provided Israel with $158 billion since 1948. This money was not a loan but rather an investment. Without Israel, Western forces would have no reason to patrol the seas or surround the region. Power and money are the only aspects that motivate governments. No one is funding this war out of concern for the people.
This is why the West immediately began building up Israel’s military. France provided Israel with the ability to build nuclear weapons near Dimona in the Negev Desert. When this became public knowledge in 1960, Eisenhower feigned shock, and the media began reporting that the factory was being used to create textiles rather than nuclear weapons.
Former French Foreign Minister Maurice Couve de Murville admitted in December 1960 that France assisted Israel in creating a “replica of [the] Marcoule plant.” France needed to protect its colonies in North Africa at the time and relied on Israeli intelligence. France provided the raw materials and arms, while the US aided with financing through tax-deductible charities. Egypt had nationalized the Suez Canal, and France and Britain considered invading to seize the area. Then the former Soviet Union threatened to intervene and the world was ready to use the Middle East as their battleground. Russia is funding a nuclear plant near that area on behalf of Egypt. And yet, Israel’s current policy is to neither confirm nor deny if they have a nuclear program. Look at history and you will see how everything has been unfolding in accordance with the war cycle.
I was criticized for questioning whether America should continue funding Israel. It is no secret that American politicians are beholden to AIPAC lobbyists who have found their way into every niche of the American government. After Hurricane Harvey devastated Texas, one town refused to provide US government aid to residents until they signed a “Verification not to Boycott Israel”clause. Donald Trump has approved of over $12 billion in aid to Israel since he took office. Two wings on the same bird—both sides would be obliged to continue funding and supporting Israel because America does not want to lose its stronghold in the Middle East.
When I visited Mar-a-Lago in March 2020, I admittedly was impressed by Donald Trump’s candor. He explained that he could no longer call mothers and tell them their sons have died fighting a war for the United States. This is why American troops are not yet in Russia. Trump does not support endless wars.
Trump, however, supports America-first policies and does not wish to act as the world’s police. The United States would have supported Israel regardless of who was at the helm because that aligns with US interests. Politics is not pretty. World peace is not attainable because the desires of man never change. Tragedy and destruction are inevitable. Regime change tactics are not limited to the United States, for that matter, as nations have employed this strategy throughout history.
I do not condone war. The computer model indicates that the War Cycle, in general, is expected to gain momentum and peak by 2032. Socrates shows rising risk of regional war involving Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, and potentially Turkey. There is a key turning point on the horizon for 2026. The new geopolitical world order is unraveling, and again, there will be no incentive for peace until 2032.
Posted originally on Jun 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
A doctor could not properly make a decision for his or her patient without undergoing medical training. A lawyer could not represent a client without studying the law. A priest could not lead in worship without a deep understanding of the Bible. Yet, we permit top government officials to make decisions without a thorough understanding of the Constitution.
Those who wish to join the ranks of the “deep state” must now undergo an 80-hour training session to ensure that they understand the basis of America’s foundation. The training will be composed of video sessions and two days of in-person training for the Senior Executive Service (SES). The goal: “Ensure that SES officials uphold the Constitution and the rule of law and effectively serve the American people.”
The SES was created under the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 and implemented in 1979. President Jimmy Carter believed these bureaucrats could restore public trust in government after the Watergate scandal. The stated purpose was to “ensure that the executive management of the Government of the United States is responsive to the needs, policies, and goals of the nation and otherwise is of the highest quality.” Thereby, one personnel system managed the federal government.
These people are NOT elected. They are installed by the government to monitor the government. Top US bureaucrats under the Senior Executive Service (SES) grew to 8,000 under the Biden Administration. These men and women hold key leadership roles beneath the top presidential appointees and act as the middleman between those appointees and the federal workforce.
The Office of Personnel and Management, first obtained by RealClearPolitics, loosely outlines “new Executive Core Qualifications.” The new appointees will not be hired under the premise of DEI. Rather, they must show a commitment to “upholding the principles of the American Founding, including equality under the law and democratic self-government.” Every agency will be required to hire a majority of non-career politicians to their Executive Review Boards. “These requirements ensure that effective implementation of the President’s policies is at the forefront of agency executive management decisions,” the memo says.
Congress enacted a 120-day moratorium period on involuntary reassignments when a new president comes to power. The fact of the matter is that these positions are likely to be granted to a new group that supports whoever is in power. The Department of Justice Inspector General conducted a report in 2000 that found panels of peers judged SES employees of the FBI were less likely to face disciplinary action, serving as an example of how bureaucrats protect their own and have a different tier of justice.
Trump signed the “Restoring Accountability for Career Senior Executives” executive order back in January to increase accountability to SES staff. It is astonishing that these elite bureaucrats who wield tremendous power were not required to study the Constitution. There is no need for unelected bureaucrats in a democracy. Drain the swamp and leave it empty.
Posted originally on May 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, There seems to be a growing trend with States approving gold and silver coins as acceptable payment methods. You have always said that it would be coins and not bars. However Florida now states that the silver must be 99% pure. How will this affect the pre 65 constitutional coins like dimes, quarters and half dollars generally referred to a junk silver? Junk silver coins will of course be worth more if the price of silver increases however it appears that one may not be able to use them for any daily transactions. Would one be better off selling their junk silver and converting it to silver rounds immediately? What does Socrates or Socrates Jr think on this topic as it is certainly a new wrinkle. Thanks ! JimJ
ANSWER: I understand the act, and it only illustrates my point that when it comes to a silver bar, 99% of the people out there would NEVER know the difference between that and a bar of Nickel. That’s what I said; I prefer the pre-1965 silver coins because the average person can easily identify the date. They are ALREADY legal tender. So they are not demonetizing the silver coins.
The Roll of 20 – 2025 $1 American Silver Eagles are 99.9% silver. However, they are denominated as $1. This may be more confusing to the average smuck on the street. Personally, I have bags of silver coins, and I have a hoard of $20 gold coins that came from a central bank, which found them tucked away in the basement vault. They are all uncirculated 1924 Saints. This was a private offering.
Posted originally on May 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Happening now: @GovRonDeSantis is in Apopka to sign HB 999 which “sets in motion #Florida’s full recognition of gold and silver as legal tender, giving Floridians the freedom to use precious metals for everyday transactions alongside traditional currency.”https://t.co/fRkQpDJE7Dpic.twitter.com/dOMajgwAsj
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared gold and silver legal tender. HB 999 maintains that these precious metals may be used in payments if they meet specific purity standards. The bill goes into effect on July 1, 2026, but many are confused as to what this will entail.
As stated in the legislation: “Legal Tender; Revising the sales and use tax exemption for certain coin or currency; specifying that a person who claims the sales tax exemption bears the burden for determining whether the gold coin or silver coin meets a specified definition; providing a presumption regarding the purity requirements of gold coin and silver coin, etc.”
“We are the first large state to step up and to get this done,” DeSantis said. “And this is right out of the Constitution of the United States. So this legislation will authorize money services business like check cashers or PayPal to transmit and accept payment in gold and silver.” State Rep. Bill Bankson sponsored the bill with the goal to “eliminate the tax burden and make it a functional means of transaction between willing parties.”
To begin, Florida is not the first state to declare gold and/or silver legal tender. Utah passed the Utah Legal Tender Act of 2011, which declared coins of either metal legal tender. Oklahoma passed Senate Bill 862 in 2014, recognizing U.S.-minted gold and silver coins as legal tender and exempting them from taxation. Kansas and West Virginia have similar policies. Texas has recognized these coins as legal tender and enacted legislation to protect them from state seizure. Wyoming treats gold and silver as currency and has exempted it from sales tax. South Carolina and Louisiana have similar policies.
Florida’s approach is a bit more structured. Gold coins must be at least 99.5% pure and silver coins at least 99.9% pure to qualify as legal tender. The weight and purity must be imprinted on the metal with the name or symbol of the mint refiner. Both will be exempt from sales tax. The state government may choose to accept silver and gold coins for payments on taxes, dues, charges, and debts. Yet, these transactions must be done electronically, and the coins will be held by a public depository while processing. A regulatory regime will be established to handle coinage, process insurance, record-keeping, licensing, and consumer disclosure agreements, which the Office of Financial Regulation will oversee.
Will Floridians see people using silver coins to check out at the grocery store? No. The law entails that payments in gold and silver coinage are entirely optional, and no person or business is required to accept them in payments. Merchants will not be required to attain knowledge on metal purity or have scales behind the cash register. The difference now is that businesses are allowed to accept them if they choose to do so. There are numerous tax benefits to choosing metal over cash.
If John Doe wants to purchase a boat from a dealership with gold, for example, the dealership must voluntarily accept the coinage but is in no way obligated to do so. Then the dealership has the burden of verifying the spot price of gold or silver rather than the state. However, if you go to a bank to cash a check, the bank will have the ability to offer clients payments in gold or silver coinage rather than cash. Another aspect to consider is that Florida will no longer add a sales tax on transactions in gold and silver, lowering the cost for businesses and consumers by around 6%.
This signals the ongoing loss of confidence in the federal government. States are rebelling against federal mismanagement and offering residents alternatives to move off the grid. People tend to hoard gold and spend paper. Gold and silver are not practical as daily commerce but are a symbolic store of wealth. We are entering a phase where sovereign debt will become toxic, and states will begin to prepare for the inevitable chaos coming from Washington.
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