Posted originally on May 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
“I don’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘-flation’,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during his Wednesday address.
Powell believed inflation would be “transitory.” He believed that the economy would come down for a “soft landing.” He believed we would enter the year and see numerous cuts due to waning inflation coming closer to the fictional 2% target. Yet again, Chairman Jerome Powell has missed the mark on stagflation.
If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We will see increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the economy of the 1970s, and you’re looking at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.
Chair Jerome Powell said officials are prepared to hike again if price pressures return. He indicated that they were now considering when to cut rates as inflation subsides to their fictional and arbitrary 2% goal. Rate cuts are only sustainable once you see the economy decline. The events that unfold around May 7, primarily regarding war, will highlight what we need to know.
Inflation rising above economic growth is STAGFLATION, which is precisely what the economy experiences during war. Inflation will rise faster than GDP, causing the purchasing power of the USD to decline.
One major factor that is never included in the inflation numbers is TAXATION. Their theory is that taxes are the citizens’ obligation and not part of our cost of living. Yet, those at the top are seeing half or more of their wealth siphoned by Washington. We already know that the jobs reports are grossly distorted. To calculate GDP, they include total personal income and government spending. In March, we saw the public sector multiply, which only causes more of a burden on the taxpayer. The ADP that was released today indicated a spike in hospitality among the private sector, but we tend to see that before the summer months in the US. The public sector contributes absolutely nothing to GDP.
WAR WILL LEAD TO STAGFLATION. Of course, the Fed cannot come out and say that they see a looming escalation of war on the horizon, and Washington certainly would not come out and say to prepare for war. Socrates is impartial to bias and was correct about this inflationary trend into 2024. We are poised for a directional change in Q3 of 2025, implying an escalation in the war cycle post-2024.
Australia is rapidly becoming the most censored “democracy” in the world. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) regulates all media from broadcasting, telecommunications, online search results, video games, to social media platforms. The Classification Board and Classification Review Board decides what information Australians can and cannot see. The government has even appointed an eSafety Commissioner to specifically oversee “online safety” and prohibit Australians from viewing anything the government deems unfit.
Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel is an Orthodox Christian priest with a massive online following. Mari preaches at the Christ the Good Shepherd Church in Wakeley, delivering powerful messages that have been resonating with believers and non-believers alike. Everyone is aware that Australia has a migrant crisis no different from other developed nations. A few weeks ago, Mari was delivering a sermon when an Islamic extremist approached him with a knife. Australia does not want the people to bear arms but that does not deter attacks.
The 16-year-old terrorist, who was clearly motivated by religion, rushed the altar with a knife and attempted to repeatedly stab Mari. The unarmed bishop held his crucifix up to the attacker and miraculously prevented the switchblade from fully opening, saving his life. The video of the attack has gone viral across the internet, met with an outpouring of sympathy from people around the world. The Australian government is angry that this video is painting migrants in a poor light and is demanding that it be scrubbed from the internet.
Australia’s eSafety Commissioner is attempting to remove the video from the internet. X (formerly Twitter) owned by Elon Musk revealed that the eSafety Commissioner contacted them to take down the video. “The Australian eSafety Commissioner ordered X to remove certain posts in Australia that publicly commented on the recent attack against a Christian Bishop. These posts did not violate X’s rules on violent speech,” the company stated.
Julie Inman Grant of the eSafety Commissioner is far within the deep state. She was offered a role with the CIA in the 90s but declined as she wanted the acknowledgement. “I wouldn’t be able to tell my friends and family what I was doing,” Grant stated on turning down the job. She proceeded to find a role in Microsoft as a government affairs manager before moving to Australia in 2000. Grant was awarded the title of national eSafety Commissioner in 2017.
Australia is livid that Elon Musk will not remove the video. “We know, I think overwhelmingly, Australians want misinformation and disinformation to stop. This isn’t about freedom of expression,” said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. “This is about the dangerous implications that can occur when things that are simply not true, that everyone knows is not true, are replicated and weaponized in order to cause division and in this case to promote negative statements and potentially to just inflame what was a very difficult situation.”
What disinformation? It is a real video of an attack that occurred as a direct result of hatred against Christians. “I’d like to take a moment to thank the PM for informing the public that this platform is the only truthful one,” Musk responded, adding, it is “absurd for any one country to attempt to censor the entire world.”
The World Economic Forum has praised Australia for their extreme censorship efforts, deeming the eSafety Commissioner Grant “the world’s most influential leaders revolutionizing government.”
One must ask – why are they afraid of this particular video circulating? We must recognize the content that the globalists do not want us to see in order to understand the larger agenda.
Posted 0riginally on Apr 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
A word to individuals who mock those looking for safe havens. We do not realize how lucky we are to live in America, Canada, or elsewhere during this current time period. Those who write in desperately seeking a safe haven are NOT simply greedy people looking to evade taxation. People are looking to evade government oppression.
Take a look at Russia and Ukraine. I know a woman with family in Russia. She can visit Russia, but her son cannot. Her son was born in Russia but has lived in America since he was a child. If he were to step foot on Russian soil, he would be required to serve in the war. There are countless Ukrainian men hiding out with their families, praying that Zelensky fails so that the war will come to an end. Families with young boys do not want to see their sons go to war when they reach a certain age. Young men in these nations simply do not have a future other than acting as cannon fodder in a senseless war that in no way benefits their people. Ukraine is asking older men to join the war effort now too as the replenishment rate is unsustainable. People may flee overseas, but the government will seek them out and punish them if they dare to return. The place they once called home no longer exists.
The government owns them.
We are witnessing all governments diving deeper into tyranny amid this wave of private confidence where all hope in government is lost. Many western governments are now attempting to impose ridiculous taxes that ensure the people are financially owned by the state.
The West is already talking about requiring women to serve as well amid this woke ideology where we live in a genderless society where a “birthing person” has no role in caring for future generations as it is the government’s job. Hence why governments are eliminating parents’ rights to choose what their children learn in schools or believe because, as Joe Biden said, your child is “everyone’s kid.”
This goes far beyond merely evading taxation. Militaries are continually failing to meet their annual recruitment standards. Younger readers do not recall the last US draft for Vietnam. Families gathered around the TV and anxiously awaited the government’s lottery drawing. If your birthday was selected by the lottery drawing, you were required to serve in the military and leave your life behind.
The drums of war are beating loudly. The West may only be supplying financial aid and extorting its people for financial aid—for now. Our politicians have control over our lives and our futures, or lack thereof.
Posted originally on Apr 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on April 10 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and by 3.5% on the yearly. One must only look at their bills, items in the store, or open their eyes to see that the cost of living in every area has far surpassed this figure. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell released some disparaging comments regarding the data, and we should not expect any rate declines in the near-term. The Fed’s 2% target is simply not possible due to excessive government spending. Inflation was never transitory and we have not had a soft landing. Yet, the Biden Administration insists the “economy is going in the right direction.”
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has insisted that greedy corporations are to blame for price gouging. He’s repeatedly called on large corporations, more specifically, to pass along their savings on to their customers. We’ve said that. We’ve been very consistent about that. And that includes rip-offs such as shrinkflation,” she insists.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also voices positive sentiments on inflations, citing how inflation is down two-thirds from its peak in June 2022 when it reached 9.1%. Yellen fails to voice that inflation had peaked due to the entire global economy shutting down due to the pandemic that created the most significant supply chain shortage I have witnessed in my lifetime. This is also why we see “strong” jobs reports in contrast to the lockdown that decimated small businesses and caused thousands to lose their ability to provide for their families.
Remember, inflation was only 1.4% when Joe Biden took office – far beneath the Fed’s target. Inflation has risen as a direct result of fiscal policies under Bidenomics.
Joe Biden mistakenly believes he has helped to tame inflation, and the private sector is solely responsible for the high cost of living. “Today’s report shows inflation has fallen more than 60% from its peak, but we have more to do to lower costs for hardworking families. Prices are still too high for housing and groceries, even as prices for key household items like milk and eggs are lower than a year ago,” according to a statement on the White House website.
Yellen and all those in line with the current administration want the public to believe that Russia and a slow-to-recover supply chain crisis caused inflation. “And I also want to remind you what caused inflation. We know that inflation was caused by supply chains that broke down because of the pandemic. Russia’s war in Ukraine — we know that caused oil prices to skyrocket. Our economy was disrupted by so many ways because of the pandemic. That’s what caused inflation,” Yellen stated in March.
Russia’s war in Ukraine would have had minimal effect on America. In fact, America could have profited on the issue by exporting energy and agricultural goods to Europe. The issue is that the US government has been sending blank checks to Ukraine and digging itself deeper into debt. The national debt has never been higher and shows no signs of stopping. The war shows no sign of stopping and Biden has ignored any calls to curtail funding Ukraine. Then, Biden’s largest spending packages have gone to climate change initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which Yellen herself said was intended to combat climate change.
As for the supply chain crisis, primarily energy, those who read this blog understand what happened with Nordstream. Biden’s first act as president was to eliminate the Keystone Pipeline plans and place countless regulations on the energy sector that caused America to become an energy-dependent nation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been used as a political tool to play with gas prices and removed America’s energy safety net.
Jerome Powell stated that the jobs report was unimpressive in comparison to rising inflation. “More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal,” the Fed chief said during a panel discussion this Tuesday. What Powell cannot voice out loud is that government policy has made the Fed’s job impossible. There is absolutely nothing that the central bank can do to curb government spending. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said. The economy is heading in the wrong direction, yet Washington is continually gas lighting the public into believing the economy has recovered. The economy fell with COVID, but the pandemic is no longer the reason that rates are rising.
Are companies price gouging? Some certainly have been. The price of business has also drastically risen in every area. TAXES are through the roof and everyone is forced to raise prices, landlords included, to meet Biden’s tax hikes that are simply unconstitutional. Why are we paying for foreign wars and foreign nationals to live within the US?
It is ridiculous to believe that the private sector is to blame for inflation. Even the Federal Reserve has said that they are at the mercy of the government’s fiscal policy and cannot do anything to prevent excessive, dangerous government spending. Inflation will not go down so long as the government is funding wars, which produce nothing, and thoughtless non-issues such as climate change that are rooted in America Last policies.
Biden is destroying the financial future of generations with his reckless spending in an attempt to buy votes. Fed Chair Powell nearly admitted it in his interview with 60 Minutes in which he urged the government to show restraint when plunging the nation deeper into debt. Biden and the Democrats are cheering that he will “cancel” debt for an additional 277,000 under the SAVE plan. Do people not realize by now that the taxpayer is paying for this debt cancelation?
Biden already “forgave” the debts of 4.3 million borrowers, but the banks have not, and neither have the universities. The liberals believe the Big Guy is magically opening his wallet or waving a magic wand and making the debt disappear. NO – the lenders will receive a repayment, but now WE, the people, must pay for the debts of a few. This would be akin to the president saying that federal funds would be used to forgive personal mortgage loans – people simply cannot afford them at the moment, and it is the socially just thing to do. Forget about the people who chose not to buy a home because it did not fit within their budgets. Perhaps we should forgive all EV car payments, t00, and hey, that money we owe to foreign nations? Well, that will be a discussion for another time since we simply won’t have the money to repay.
Newsflash – the youth do not approve of Joe Biden. They are afraid to fight in a war overseas in which they see no patriotic cause to go. His supporters on the far-left support HAMAS. Not Palestine, but Hamas. A Harvard-Harris poll conducted in October asked, “In general in this conflict, do you side more with Israel or Hamas?” Among Gen Z voters, 48% said they supported the terrorist organization. Those with clarity do not support any war and certainly do not support sending countless aid to Ukraine and Israel.
Tax season caused some of the woke young Americans to question their financial identities, and I reported that one poll found that nearly a quarter of first-time filers actually planned to seek psychological help upon filing taxes. No one explained to them how this sinister system actually works.
We do not live in a Democracy. We did not vote on whether we wanted to spend over $7 billion to dismiss the financial obligations of others. Furthermore, this is a clear and deliberate attempt to BUY VOTES ahead of the election. Biden is simply polling so low that he is desperate to do anything to garner support, be it ushering in a new population of migrants or gaslighting the public into believing they are better off today.
WE the people have spent $153,000,0000,000 on buying votes through student loan bailouts. On June 30, 2023, the Supreme Court declared Biden’s forgiveness programs unconstitutional. The Biden regime has never followed the Constitution and has actively sought ways to dismiss the very documents this nation was founded on. “I believe the Court’s decision to strike down my student debt relief program was a mistake, was wrong. So, we need to find a new way and we’re moving as fast as we can,” Biden was scripted to say after the ruling. Is there an amendment that this man has not dismissed?
The national debt crisis should scare you. Biden-Harris and the neocons are borrowing against future generations of Americans. The government believes it can shake down the citizens for additional taxes, but even if they confiscated all of our assets, it would not be enough to cover their continual spending.
Again, I want to state the importance of Jerome Powell’s words. It is unusual for the central bank to break with the government for any reason.
“In the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The US federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path and that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy,” Powell finally warned, later adding, “effectively, we are borrowing from future generations.” He warned that we must begin to prioritize fiscal policy immediately to fix this unending crisis.
Forget rate cuts. Forget a balanced budget or even seeing anything remotely in the green. Not only are we funding 2.5 wars and millions of unemployed migrants, but we are also funding the climate change hysteria that demands we implode our economy. The Inflational Reduction Act was merely the beginning. These spending packages are the greatest threat to our nation’s economy as we simply CANNOT REPAY OUR DEBT. Worse — we have turned our main buyers into enemies and will soon be left holding the bag as no one will come to rescue America.
Germany was once a safe nation.Violent crime has reached a 15-year high, with homicides, knife assaults, and rapes drastically increasing. Crime rose by 5.5% last year alone, with 6.6 million incidences reported. Other nations like the UK, US, Canada, France, Sweden, Finland, and everywhere else that permitted, if not encouraged, open border policies have also seen an uptick in crime but no one wants to point out the obvious.
Migrants were responsible for around 40% of violent crimes in Germany last year, but the non-German national population only composes 15% of the population. Angela Merkel sold off Germany in 2015 when she urged all refugees to come to Europe to seek a better life. The migrants never stopped showing up. Germany handled over 350,000 asylum applications in 2023, and that only accounts for those who went through the judicial process.
The left refuses to hold migrants responsible for crimes and will not acknowledge that different cultures simply do not integrate well into Western societies. Lamya Kaddor, a Green Party MP, said that migrants are simply over-represented in crime statistics. “The crime rate is higher among socio-economically disadvantaged groups, which very often include foreign nationals,” she stated. Politicians like Kaddor do not care about the safety of their constituents and will never back away from open border policies.
The migrant crisis is deliberate and apparent in all Build Back Better nations. These people are living off of the government, are unvetted, and have no allegiance to their new homebase. Southern European nations are in an even worse state as boatloads of new migrants wash upon their shores daily. Merkel humiliated Greece during the bail-out process, and now the European Union as a whole has its foot on the necks of all nations under its control. No one voted to allow these migrants into their hometowns. It is hard to say that Europeans live in a democracy as they are under the control of the European Union, which is following orders from the World Economic Forum these globalists do not merely want a one-European government but a one-world government where the few rule the masses.
Posted originally on Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I have already criticized the March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. The mainstream media is cheering the 303,000 position boost as proof that the American economy is on the right path. I noted in an earlier blog post that the number of part-time workers rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, as Americans cannot afford the current cost of living even with wages rising 4.1% YoY.
One additional aspect—not a single manufacturing job was added to the US economy in March. The BLS claims that manufacturing jobs held steady at 12,956,000 from February, although 10,000 manufacturing positions were cut in January.
The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that was intended to expand American manufacturing. As Yellen and others have openly stated, the Inflation Reduction Act, America’s most expensive spending package, was intended to promote the climate change agenda.
Clean energy manufacturing is not profitable and, therefore, not expanding. “According to third-party estimates, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy tax incentives have the potential to drive investment that will support more than 1 million jobs in energy and related manufacturing sectors over the coming decade,” the US Department of Treasury stated in October 2023.
“To receive increased credit and deduction amounts under the Inflation Reduction Act, taxpayers must:
Pay workers the local prevailing wage, defined in accordance with Department of Labor standards, for work on facility construction, as well as for alterations and repairs in a five-to-twelve-year period, depending on the credit, after a facility is placed in service.
Hire a sufficient proportion of workers from registered apprenticeship programs, including hiring these qualified apprentices for at least 10% of the labor hours spent on facility construction, alteration, or repair work (rising to 12.5% for facilities where construction begins in 2023 and 15% in 2024 and later years)
The prevailing wage and apprenticeship provisions apply to:
the Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit (30C)
the Production Tax Credit (45, 45Y)
the Credit for Carbon Oxide Sequestration (45Q)
the Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen (45V)
the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z)
the Investment Tax Credit (48, 48E)
the Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C)
the Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction (179D)
In addition, the prevailing wage provision will apply to:
the New Energy Efficient Home Credit (45L)
the Zero-Emission Nuclear Power Production Credit (45U)”
The private sector does not wish to invest in alternative or renewable energy projects. The tax credits are not enough of an incentive. The US Department of the Treasury mistakenly believed that the act would provide “taxpayers with a strong incentive to meet high labor standards as they build projects” and “expand well-paying union jobs and support proven pathways into the industry that allow workers to earn while they learn.”
Manufacturing is in fact not expanding. The regulations in place have made it difficult for existing factories to expand or bring on more workers.
Comment: Thank you Martin Armstrong to take time to write on 15 min cities and accessory dwelling units or the ADUs. I must reach out and ask you to share my personal story on how ADU is destroying my once charming neighborhood. I believe everyone should have access to shelter, and I do not want these people on the streets. My heart goes out to those without and I felt bad for their situations until I witnessed what permitting legal squatting brought. Permitting people to live in huts in the backyard is not the solution as I have seen firsthand over the last year or so.
A few of my neighbors built ADUs units behind their homes. They built them themselves and they look like tiny wooden sheds and are eyesores. How anyone can manage to live there is beyond me, as they have less space than most garages. All the renters are single men without consistent employment who probably would not qualify for an apartment since they do not seem to be going to work but lurk around the neighborhood instead. Strange men are scattered around my neighborhood and their friends are not the type of people I would want in my town. One man died inside his unit from drugs. My neighbor replaced him with a new renter within the month, another single man who lurks around. I have a teenage daughter and two little ones. I was never worried about their safety in this neighborhood, but there is now riff-raff in this neighborhood and I do not feel safe. My husband will not let them play outside alone. The people who believe these shelters are a solution are mistaken.
Reply: Your concerns seem valid. Depending on the zoning laws in your area, anyone can build and rent out an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU). There are no requirements for the tenants or background checks. The shelters themselves need only be 375 sq ft and may not exceed 40% of the primary property’s floor area or 1,000 sq ft.
Proponents of these shelters say they are a great way to assist family members, but that is not the intention. I personally would not allow my family members to live in a shed outside my primary residence. The fact of the matter is that these units largely do not look or function as “in-law suites.” People are becoming desperate for additional income in this economy, and renting out a sliver of their land is now an option. Primary homeowners are also now qualifying for loans to build these structures, and contractors specializing in ADUs are becoming commonplace. In Florida, for example, many cities require ADUs to be rented out by low-income individuals. Again, they do not need to pass a background check or register with any agency. You must ask yourself who would want to live in these conditions.
So you are correct in your fears that anyone could be living in those units. Your neighbors cannot easily evict a tenant once they move in as they are now protected by tenant rights. These men could have used a fake name or identification (neither are requirements) and your own neighbor may not know who is living on their property. They do not need to be citizens of the United States either.
It is up to individual counties and cities to prohibit these ADUs, which are simply a step above homelessness. They will lower the neighborhood’s value as no one wants this sort of thing in their community. I am sorry you have to deal with this situation that is spreading across the Build Back Better countries.
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