Tag Archives: No private weapons of any kind

Aug 11 2023

Bidenomics – Multiple Key Performance Indicators Spell Trouble Ahead


Posted originally on the CTH on August 10, 2023 | Sundance 

Several people have made queries about the current state of our national economic condition against the backdrop of disconnected data points that seemingly conflict. Here’s my review.

July and August are key months to gauge the prior six months of U.S consumer positioning.

Why?

Because all advance purchase orders for the U.S. holiday season are made in May, June and July for inventory builds and delivery schedules for September.  The decisions made by purchasing officers in late spring and early summer, reflect their predictive analysis for the holiday season.

Inventories are evaluated, critical financial discussions are held, and orders are placed for September arrival and distribution.  This predictive activity is what we see in the July and August data that flows from the global, multinational and shipping corporations who facilitate the transfer of the goods.  Check what is happening in distribution, and you can see what eventually creates the boxcar effect in the supply chain that ultimately leads to shuttered manufacturing.

Those who are involved in the business of shipping goods are signaling the flares around the state of the consumer economy and what will happen.  At the same time, the wording is almost hilarious in this era of great pretending.  Instead of saying ordinary words like “poor sales results for durable goods,” the parseltongue calls sales, “destocking.”  Example:  “CEO Vincent Clerc said he saw no sign that the destocking which has curbed global trade activity would end this year.”

Global shipping company Maersk is warning that shipping volume is low because warehouse inventories are high.  The goods are unsold.

(Reuters) – […] CEO Vincent Clerc said he saw no sign that the destocking which has curbed global trade activity would end this year.

“We had expected customers to draw down inventories around the middle of the year, but so far we see no signs of that happening. It may happen at the beginning of next year,” Clerc said at a media briefing.  “Consequently, the uptick in volumes we had expected in the second half of the year has not occurred,” he said. (read more)

The lack of shipping leads to a review of inventory status for the warehouses who would receive the goods.

Bulging Warehouses – […] A review of corporate statements and briefings shows more than 30 U.S. and European companies, including Hugo Boss, Heineken and A.P. Moller-Maersk, 3M Co and Stanley Black & Decker complained that destocking hurt their second-quarter performance.

Retailers particularly have struggled with stocks of clothing and footwear as consumers splurge on holidays rather than goods as they did during pandemic lockdowns.

The downbeat outlook comes amid low expectations for second-quarter results as China’s post-pandemic recovery slows. Refinitiv I/B/E/S data shows U.S. and European companies are expected to report their worst quarterly results in years.

Companies which stockpiled last year are finding it harder to shed inventories when higher borrowing costs and inflation crimp consumer demand, corporate executives and analysts said.

In the euro zone, stocks of finished products hit records in August last year and destocking only started in May, based on latest euro-zone manufacturing data.

In the U.S., an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics by CFRA Research showed business inventories soared by 20% in mid-2022, the biggest jump on record based on data that goes back to 1993. Retailers led the trend – raising inventories by a quarter from a year earlier.

The date in this next paragraph is key:

[…] The U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.4 in May, up from 1.33 a year ago, which means retailers, manufacturers and wholesalers have more inventory than they can sell at a higher rate than a year ago. (link)

When purchase order decisions for the holiday season of 2023 were being made, the inventory levels were higher than 2022.  This is KPI (Key Performance Indicator) data, because the holiday of 2022 was a total mess.

Holiday sales last year were exceptionally weak as wage earners were struggling to pay for higher prices in essential goods and services, fuel, oil, heating, energy, gasoline, food and shelter.  The lack of consumer purchasing for non-essential goods and/or luxury items resulted in poor sales last year, and the inventory levels are actually higher this year than last year when this year’s purchasing decisions were being made.  That reality drops purchase orders.  The dropped purchase orders lead to Maersk saying they are shipping less goods.

Now, let’s get USA domestic…. because it’s all connected.  For that let’s turn to the U.S. Postal Service:

USPS DATA – First-Class Mail revenue increased $221 million, or 4.0 percent, on a volume decline of 678 million pieces, or 5.9 percent, compared to the same quarter last year. Shipping and Packages revenue remained relatively flat while volume declined 41 million pieces, or 2.4 percent, compared to the same quarter last year.

Marketing Mail revenue decreased $333 million, or 8.8 percent, on a volume decline of 2.6 billion pieces, or 16.0 percent, compared to the same quarter last year. The Marketing Mail decreases were driven by the continued decline in advertising spending due to economic pressures experienced throughout most of the fiscal year, a higher inflationary environment affecting print media production costs. (link)

So, let’s put it all together….

Consumers did not buy stuff.  As a result, spring inventories were high.  Purchasing managers forecast weak sales. Summer purchase orders were very low.  Shipping companies reflect declines in shipping because the purchase orders were low. Advertising and marketing budgets were cut to meet the decrease in consumer spending.  Consumers are not forecast to spend this holiday season.

The economic pie is getting smaller.

Keep in mind, this is all intentional.  This is all part of the outcome from “managing the transition” to a new energy economy.

As you are well aware the various western nation central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are raising interest rates into a global economic contraction, a drop in demand.  Raising interest rates into a contracting economy is counterintuitive, it runs against the expressed interest of government to grow economic conditions.  However, there is a purposeful design to the contradiction.  [A TLDR Version Here]

The central bankers are trying to support western government policy.  Unfortunately, the government policy they are under obligation to support is the fundamental energy shift, or what the World Economic Forum (Davos Group) has called the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda.

Monetary policy can only impact one side of the inflation challenge.  The western bankers (EU central bank, U.S. federal reserve bank, and various banking groups) are raising interest rates in order to “tame inflation” by “taming demand.”  However, as you know the global economic demand has been declining for several quarters.  Raising interest rates into an already contracting economy only does one thing, it speeds up the rate of economic contraction.

Economic contraction is the lowering of economic activity.  Raise interest rates -in a general sense- and businesses invest less, borrowers borrow less, consumers purchase less, employers expand less, and the economy overall slows down. When the economy turns negative, meaning less products and services are produced, we enter a recession. Some businesses and employers do not survive a recession and subsequently unemployment rises.

During recessionary periods people buy less stuff, people have less income stability, and economic activity drops.  When the banks raise interest rates into an economy that is already stalled or contracting, unemployment and general pain on Main Street increases.  Workers are laid-off, incomes shrink, consumer spending drops and that leads to less employment.  Recessions are bad for middle-class and working-class people.

However, that said, there is one benefit from a recession…. Energy use drops.

Aug 10 2023

Homelessness in the US at All-Time High


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Aug 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The housing crisis has become a massive issue in America. People with decent jobs are unable to afford housing, and those who were already down and out have little chance of survival. Then we poured the migrant crisis on top of the fire and have created a situation that is turning America into a second-world nation. Not so coincidentally, most of the homeless population lives in blue cities. The US spent over $51 billion on the homeless crisis last year, but where has the money gone?

Homelessness in the US has spiked by 65% since 2016! The Annual Homelessness Assessment Report said it is common for half a million people to be experiencing homelessness on any given night. The data is not in for 2023 when the migrant crisis really took hold after title 42 came to an end, so these figures I will present are nothing compared to our current reality in 2023. For every 10,000 Americans, 18 do not have a home. Around 72% are single adults, but an alarming 28% are families living with children. Five percent of the homeless population are unaccompanied youth under 25. Our veterans compose 6% of the homeless population as well.

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islanders have the highest rate of homelessness with 121 out of every 10,000 people living in crisis. The Black community has a disproportionate amount of homeless too with 48.2 of every 10,000 experiencing homelessness. Native Americans come in at a close third with 44.9 out of every 10,000 having no place to call home. Sixty-eight percent of all homeless individuals are male.

The US Federal government spent over $51 billion to combat the homeless crisis in 2022, but then our government took measures to worsen the matter, and economic conditions have made it nearly impossible for those with nothing to find shelter. The National Alliance to End Homelessness estimates that a chronically homeless person will cost the taxpayers an average of $35,578 per year. Yet, where is this money going? When the migrants came through, we managed to find housing and convert buildings into temporary shelters until cities became overrun and it was impossible to manage — the federal bill for homelessness in FY22-23 will be astonishing.

As of March 2022, these cities saw the largest populations of unhoused individuals:

  • Los Angeles City & County 65,111
  • New York City 61,840
  • Seattle/King County 13,368
  • San Jose/Santa Clara City & County 10,028
  • Oakland, Berkeley/Alameda County 9,747
  • Sacramento City & County 9,278
  • Phoenix, Mesa/Maricopa County 9,026
  • San Diego City and County 8,427
  • San Francisco 7,754
  • Metropolitan Denver 6,884

We can see a pattern here, given that these are blue cities. Politicians touted many of these areas as “sanctuary cities” and encouraged tens of thousands of people to use the last of their resources to relocate there. And now, these people have nowhere to stay and no resources to leave. Promising sanctuary should have been a crime in itself. Criminalizing homelessness will not solve the solution and will only further burden the taxpayers. Anyone living in a major American city will tell you first-hand that the number of unhoused people has exploded in the past year. This is a SERIOUS and growing problem that is not being addressed. The government is continually throwing more money at the problem, but it is only worsening.

Aug 10 2023

Self-Defense Illegal in Blue Cities


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Aug 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Criminals have the right of way in the US where they are permitted to commit crimes with absolutely no repercussions. I advise you to read my article on the Cloward-Piven Strategy if you want to know the real reason this is all happening. Overburden the bureaucracy to break the system, create controlled chaos, usurp power as civil unrest peaks, and offer government aid as the only solution. This was the basis behind the Cloward-Piven strategy created by sociologists Frances Fox Piven and her husband, Richard Cloward. The couple published their theory in The Nation Magazine on May 2, 1966, entitled “The Weight of the Poor: A Strategy to End Poverty.”

The four steps of the Cloward-Piven Strategy:

  1. Overload and Break the Welfare System
  2. Have Chaos Ensue
  3. Take Control in the Chaos
  4. Implement Socialism and Communism through Government Force

In Chicago, we see mobs of people absolutely destroying small businesses and personal property. It is not safe there. Yet, the mayor refuses to call these groups “mobs” and urges the public to have compassion for the criminals.

In Oakland, California, the police are advising residents to place security bars on their doors and windows due to the uptick in crime. Burglaries have risen over 41% in Oakland and robberies are up 20%. Instead of properly telling residents that their 2A rights may be the only difference between life and death, the police have advised residents to use airhorns. Breitbart reported on a recent incident that went as expected:“On Sunday, July 30, 2023, a 75-year-old Oakland woman was home alone and armed with more than an airhorn when two alleged armed intruders entered her home. The woman had a .357 Magnum revolver, which she used to fire one shot at the alleged intruders, KTVU reported. The alleged intruders fired multiple shots then fled the scene.”

Clearly, the airhorns did not cause the criminals to flee. This woman is lucky that she was armed when criminals, likely career criminals who fail to contribute to society in any meaningful way, broke into her home.

In Stockton, California, a 7-Eleven convenience store owner was robbed by the same man on multiple occasions. The police did not assist the clerk after he pleaded for help numerous times. There are videos showing the same man casually robbing the store. “Look how relaxed he is. That’s the Democratic law in California where the criminal is the victim because, you know, ‘the system is racist‘,” Fox News contributor Leo Terrell commented.

The store owner finally decided to fight back. He did not use lethal force but began beating the career criminal with a broomstick as another man held him down. They can’t cry racism because the store owner is Sikh. The criminal began complaining that he was in pain and cried on camera, causing the tables to turn, and the store owner was placed under investigation. You are permitted to steal up to a certain amount in California; Newsom has ensured it by law. So technically this “criminal” is a law-abiding citizen in the state of California.

Self-defense in Biden’s America is now considered vigilantism. They are following the Cloward-Piven model and ensuring that chaos ensues across the nation. Then they will cry that we need gun control – so that these vigilantes who don’t want to be harmed by criminals cannot protect themselves and must rely on the police who are not permitted to protect them. Blue cities in this country are absolutely ruined and people need to consider this at the polls.