Posted originally on Feb 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Click here to watch the latest interview on 2 Vikings Podcast on Spotify.
A message from Frank Nilsen:
How does Martin believe central bank digital currencies will affect the future of finance, borrowing, and the overall economy? With rising government discontent and predicted collapses in confidence, what indicators should we watch to gauge the stability of government systems? What are the historical precedents for capital migration during times of war or conflict, and how are we seeing this take place today?
Martin A Armstrong is back on the 2 Vikings podcast again. He is a former financial advisor and hedge fund manager who gained prominence for his economic forecasting abilities. He started his career in the early 1970s and quickly became known for his unique approach to analyzing financial markets. One of Armstrong’s notable contributions to the field of economics is the development of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). The ECM is a cyclical model that aims to predict economic and political events based on a series of mathematical calculations. According to Armstrong, these cycles repeat over time and can be used to forecast market trends with remarkable accuracy. Armstrong’s forecasting abilities gained widespread attention in the late 1980s when he accurately predicted the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987. His model also successfully predicted various other major events, including the Japanese asset bubble collapse in the early 1990s and the Russian financial crisis in 1998.
In addition to his economic forecasting work, Armstrong also founded Armstrong Economics, a research firm that provided economic analysis and consulting services to clients worldwide. The company’s clients included governments, central banks, and major corporations. While he gained recognition for accurately predicting major market events, he also faced legal troubles and was convicted of contempt of court. Armstrong spent several years fighting the charges against him and was ultimately convicted of contempt of court for refusing to hand over computer files related to his forecasting models. He was sentenced to prison in 2000 and remained incarcerated until 2011. You can see his story in the documentary “The Forecaster.” During his time in prison, Armstrong continued to write about economics and finance. He gained a following of supporters who believed in his forecasting abilities and viewed him as a victim of government persecution. Armstrong’s writings, which were published on his website, often delved into topics such as market manipulation, government corruption, and the flaws of the financial system. Since his release from prison, Armstrong has continued to publish his economic insights and analysis on his website. He has also been involved in various legal battles related to his case and has become an advocate for reforming the justice system. Armstrong continues to share his economic insights through his website but remains a controversial figure in the field of economics.
We talk about: 00:00 Allegations of election interference and financial corruption. 09:14 Discoveries made by accident, not intentional pursuit. 15:39 Refusing to sell, setting off chain of events. 17:32 Russia’s large natural resource reserves are tempting. 28:15 Congress to vote, circumventing, dangerous power grab, inflation. 31:15 Became largest institutional advisors in the world. 35:03 Historical revolts sparked democracy, not communication speed. 42:48 Urgent need for CBDCs to control debt. 48:12 Decrees make no sense, unsustainable federal spending. 51:20 Shocking dinner conversation at Mar a Largo. 58:18 Rising discontent may lead to stock market pullback. 01:04:21 High priest determined leap year, leading to corruption. 01:10:42 Gold brokers indicative of upcoming restrictions, collapse. 01:17:11 Migration increases traffic, taxes and bribery issues. 01:18:58 Model predicts war but people want peace. 01:24:09 AfD leader supports Brexit model for Germany. 01:32:28 Colombians pay for heart transplant to escape. 01:34:09 Government funds for medical procedures exploited. Enjoy!
Posted originally on the CTH on January 26, 2024 | Sundance
In this brief video below {Direct Rumble Link Here} Former Blackrock portfolio manager, Ed Dowd, explains why every last remnant of human freedom depends on mass resistance to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). “Once the central bank digital currency is linked to all your credit cards and bank accounts, then social controls can be implemented. If you’re a dissenter like me, talking about truth, they shut you down.” WATCH:
I know at first blush a lot of this CBDC discussion seems esoteric, difficult to understand, and there are a lot of other issues happening simultaneously in the background. However, if you contemplate the biggest threat on this overarching power arc of western government, you arrive to understand how serious this seemingly opaque issue really is.
I first started to deep dive research into these CBDC datapoints when the Russian sanctions were triggered. You see, nothing about them really makes sense from the way they were structured; additionally, the intensity of the drive to make the sanctions the tip of the western spear was just too pointed, something about it didn’t make sense. That’s what took me to dig deep into the impact and realize nothing said about these financial sanctions makes sense when compared against their actual irrelevance {Go Deep}.
When the White House first started openly saying the Biden administration was reviewing how to implement CBDC’s, yes THAT Announcement ACTUALLY HAPPENED, September 2022, then things from a research perspective really started to get serious. “While the U.S. has not yet decided whether it will pursue a CBDC, the U.S. has been closely examining the implications of, and options for, issuing a CBDC.” Whenever the U.S. govt says they’re “undecided,” pay close attention.
First things first with the Western financial sanctions- specifically the SWIFT exchange. It is true you cannot use VISA, Mastercard or any mainstream Western financial tools to conduct business in Russia; however, the number of workarounds for this issue are numerous. One of those tools is the use of a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin; and within that reality, you find something very ominous about the USA motive against crypto.
“I’ve always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, etc.,” Dimon said in response to a question from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. “The only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers … money laundering, tax avoidance because it is somewhat anonymous, not fully, and because you can move money instantaneously. “If I was the government, I would close it down.” (read more)
Dimon was/is positioning JPMorgan to be a facilitating beneficiary of the financial control system evident within any CBDC process.
Here’s how it really looks from the outside looking at the USA. The same way the Patriot Act was not designed to stop terrorism but rather to create a domestic surveillance system. So too were the “Russian Sanctions” not designed to sanction Russia, but rather to create the financial control system that will lead to a USA digital currency.
The Western sanctions created a financial wall around the USA, not to keep Russia out, but to keep us in. The Western sanction regime, the financial mechanisms they created and authorized, creates the control gate that leads to a U.S. digital currency.
Now, does the exploding debt and seeming govt ambivalence, the stuff Ed Dowd is talking about, take on a new perspective? It should, because that unspoken motive explains everything. It all just makes sense when reviewed through this prism of motive and intent. Again, the western sanctions against Russia are not having an impact against Russia; they are having a quiet impact in the USA and western dollar-based economic system that no one is permitted to talk about.
Bottom line, the non-pretending reasoning. The US Treasury has set the financial system on an almost unreversible path to a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency. As direct consequence crypto currency alternatives are a threat to the establishment of that western objective. This reality also pulls in the explanation around why the USA is so all-in for the banker-driven World War Reddit, the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
How did the Obama administration go from all efforts to be on good relations with Russia 2009 through 2015, then suddenly pivot to the exact opposite with the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy, the Russian election interference nonsense, the expulsion of Russian diplomats in Dec/Jan 2017 and suddenly Vladimir Putin as the archvillain for the world? Apparently, few have ever really asked how that happened.
Here’s the big picture, as seen through the prism of the EU and the non-pretenders in Eastern Europe.
The Marxists in the Obama admin needed a boogeyman in order to pull off their domestic heist and secure the “fundamental change.” The CIA and State Dept were deployed to utilize Ukraine in 2014 to create the boogeyman, Russia. Ukraine would be the stick to poke Russia. The USA needed a proxy; they created one and made the participants rich.
Provoked, Russia fell into the trap and took control of Crimea as they perceived the NATO expansion and likely control of the Black Sea as a threat. The Crimea move gave the CIA and State Dept the exact response they intended.
The Russia boogeyman was created.
But why? Why would the effort of the U.S. Government be to provoke and create this crisis?
In the biggest of big pictures, the domestic fundamental change needed it. We needed a reason to put walls around the U.S – not to keep Russia out, but to keep Americans locked in. Conflict with Russia became the Obama version of Bush’s conflict with Iraq. Putin now cast to play the role of Bin Laden.
The Patriot Act was never intended to stop foreign terrorists from attacking the USA. The Patriot Act was intended to create the DHS surveillance system for domestic control. It succeeded. The Russian sanctions were never intended to sanction Russia (and they don’t). The Western sanctions against Russia were intended to build walls around the U.S. financial system.
Ostracizing the world’s global trade currency, the dollar, from the global trade system was/is a necessary step in controlling domestic currency. If there is a threat, the government needs to respond. That’s how the crisis is created and not wasted.
Yes, what I am saying is there was a longer and deeper play afoot, a ‘trillions at stake’ game by those who control money and power, using foreign threat as the justification for something that just would not be possible without it. That’s why Trump was never allowed to breathe for a moment, whenever Russia or Vladimir Putin was mentioned. The control forces needed Trump to be adversarial to Russia, regardless of whether the threat was real. After all, it was supposed to be a willfully blind Hillary Clinton in place during this phase.
Conflict with Russia created the opportunity for the USA to create a sanctions regime that doesn’t truly sanction Russia, instead it controls the world of USA finance. At the end of that control mechanism is a digital dollar, a Central Bank Digital Currency…. and by extension full control over U.S. citizen activity. The Marxist holy grail.
That moment is closer than most can fathom, and that is exactly why the counterforce of a cryptocurrency, a rebellious mechanism for free people to exchange payment for goods and services, must be stopped by the same USG that is triggering the CBDC. Crypto is a threat. Jamie Dimon, along with all the major banks and financial institutions, is one key beneficiary that CBDC (a transactional player for fees therein) so long as JPMorgan stays on task.
Republicans, really financial beneficiaries of the largesse, oppose crypto currency.
The narrative…. Only criminals, that means those who would be defined as domestic terrorists like pesky remnants of our nation who demand freedom and liberty, would support cryptocurrency. Criminals, tax cheats, bad people support crypto. Don’t be a bad person comrade citizen. Insert vote, pull lever, get pellet, go back to sleep. You will own nothing and be happy comrade.
Yes, that’s the bigger picture.
Can it be stopped? I laugh, look in the mirror, think about the reality of how many people think this is an absurd conspiracy theory, and respond with…. How many people even know about the thing you are asking to oppose?
How many people would believe the Western sanctions against Russia were really the USG building a cage to keep us in. How about we start there. That’s my answer.
During remarks in New Hampshire, President Trump announced he would never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency. WATCH:
Of course, it should be noted….. As if the entire global system didn’t already oppose Donald Trump, this position against CBDC’s just puts an exclamation point on how the multinational financial systems will hate/oppose him even more.
This 2024 election is critical for a variety of reasons. However, high atop that list is this issue of how a dollar based CBDC is a threat to every liberty we cherish.
COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you. I am a converted gold bug. Your comment about how gold was $875 in 1980 and the Dow was 1,000 compared to today cannot be ignored. I can see now that it is more of a religion than reality, like climate change absent the science. I was at Starbucks, and Generation X before me just paid with his phone. They have no idea what money is and have no idea of precious metals.
I just want to say thank you. I now understand they are a hedge when confidence collapses and we are moving closer to that period day by day.
Thank you for the education
Kerry
QUESTION #1: Hello; If a house cost $4,000 in 1930, then it cost 200 x 1930 $20 gold pieces to buy the house. A $20 dollar gold piece @ 33.4 grams of gold today would be $471,000. So not much change except the standard house in 1930 could have used some updates. Wonder if property corellates to gold? Just for fun; Rob
ANSWER #1: You have to be careful, for this is usually a selective analysis put out as a sales pitch. A loaf of Wonder Bread was 10 cents in 1930, and it’s about $5 today. That is the standard long-term inflation. This key is that everything rises and falls.
Yes, it’s good to be diversified. Just be careful with the gold bugs. They often tell you to sell everything, for only gold will rise. That is just not true, and I have seen so many people lose a fortune on that advice.
QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, could you explain how futures markets affect the spot price/the market price? We hear of futures markets manipulating, affecting the market price, but how is i ask? I heard that because of the futures markets we then get a different perception of the market price. Meaning that if the futures are trading lower, than the market price will get lower or if the futures are trading higher than the market price will trade higher. Is this true?? Regards, Pietro
ANSWER #2: It is a fool’s argument to try to explain why gold peaked at $875 in 1980, with the Dow Jones Industrials at 1,000. Today, gold is $2,000, and the Dow is 33,000. So, to explain why gold has not risen, it must be manipulated.
Futures provide liquidity to any commodity or market. Liquidity expands the market, and thus, more people get involved. If you closed the futures market, then the only way to trade gold would be in physical bullion. The number of investors would collapse. Moreover, producers need the futures market to sell forward to lock in a profit to produce. If a farmer plants a crop expecting to get the market price when planting and something happens when it goes to harvest, he can lose his shirt and be out of business. Future contracts are selling your crop when you plant it, and you are effectively selling the risk to someone else. Here is a futures contract from Babylon during the 19th century BC. This is the way markets have been able to function for thousands of years.
My mother always told me there is a time and place for everything. Eliminating the futures market would rapidly make gold untradable. Miners will not function if they always have to roll the dice, hoping gold will rise and not decline when they finish refining a lot. This is the same for farmers and even in funds management.
I was offered $60 billion to manage as a stock fund in the USA. Because there is a conflict between the SEC and the CFTC, the rule was I could not HEDGE more than 17% at the time, or that would change the definition to a futures fund from an equity fund. I declined because if I saw a crash coming, I would have to sell the stocks, for I would not be allowed to sell futures to cover the risk. That is why I, along with others, started the hedge fund industry back in the 1980s: when S&P500 futures began to trade, these two agencies were fighting over jurisdiction. It was IMPOSSIBLE to comply with the law under the SEC, for you would go to jail with the CFTC. Hence, it was the OVERREGULATION that created the hedge fund industry by force.
Futures are vital because they provide the liquidity to expand markets. Because gold is an international commodity, it CANNOT be manipulated to turn a bull market into a bear market. Even the manipulation claims against the bankers are standard in trading markets. They would know where all the stops are, and they would gun for them. There is always room for swings within any market, but you cannot take a bull market and make a bear market at will.
And just for the record, I have bought gold over the years. I bought a hoard of $20 gold pieces from a central bank. I have bought gold bars from the SS Central America that went down and caused the Panic of 1857. Gold and silver have their place in a diversified portfolio. NO PORTFOLIO should ever be 100% on one thing!
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The gig economy has exploded in recent years as people seek additional income to keep up with the rising living costs. The government has been attempting to exploit these workers for additional taxes for years. A new law implemented by the Biden Administration will force some businesses to classify gig workers as employees, raising costs for everyone involved.
It costs companies about 30% more to hire someone as an employee rather than an independent contractor. There are state laws regarding independent contract or gig work, but this is the largest piece of legislation to be passed on the federal level.
The legislation is presented in a way that will protect workers from the big bad companies. In truth, the law will raise taxes on these workers who took on these low-skilled positions for extra income. This will prevent some from, say, working for both Lyft and Uber. Trade group Chamber of Progress believes that reclassification will result in $31 billion in lost revenue.
Companies will simply limit their workforce by necessity. When Governor Gavin Newsom approved raising California’s minimum wage to $20 under Bill 1228, countless people found themselves without a job. Pizza Hut fired over 2,000 delivery drivers right before the change was implemented. California Pizza Hut and PacPizza franchises eliminated delivery driver positions entirely.
So, the kid delivering pizzas a few nights a week during college will miss out on that opportunity because the government wants to tax him as an employee. “Gig” is simply a temporary contract intended to produce supplemental income. These positions were never meant to be full-time career paths. The government should explore why so many people are seeking multiple jobs instead of preventing people from seeking out additional sources of revenue.
Posted originally on Jan 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
One piece of analysis commonly misconstrued is the Federal Reserve’s role in the nation’s economic health. Even those who have the ability to piece together other variables that often go unnoticed commonly point their finger at the Federal Reserve. No one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.
They never look at the history of central banks and how Congress has been manipulating the law to alter the Fed’s purpose. If there was a single interest rate and one policy set in Washington, why do we even have branches of the Fed if they no longer act independently? When the Fed was created, the branches managed internal domestic capital flows. Each branch was independent, and they would lower or raise the interest rate in their jurisdiction depending on the flow of money. Too much cash? They lowered the rate. Not enough cash? They raised it. This was all before Keynesian Economics when the interest rate became the tool to manipulate our demand.
The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 created the Panic of 1907, which caused capital to rush from East to West. This created a shortage of cash in New York and led to bank failures. Hence, the Federal Reserve was created with branches to manipulate the internal capital flows – not the Quantity of Money Theory or the demand of the people.
Roosevelt usurped all the independence of the Fed and created a Washington monopoly to push his socialist agenda into place. We are hearing the same pitch of equality once again from Biden. The government is supposed to be separate from the Federal Reserve, but the president appoints the chair. The formerly independent central bank that was owned by the bankers to prevent the misuse of taxpayer funds is now under control by the banks only in theory; the reins of power are political.
The Federal Reserve failed to produce inflation while engaging in QE between 2008 and 2019. Most analysts ignore that entirely. If the Fed issued $1 trillion and buys in US Treasuries, I hate to tell you, but it would have ZERO impact. Why? Because debt today is simply cash that pays interest. Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.
Also, consider where the Fed purchases its debt and who purchases US debt. China, for example, is no longer buying US debt due to US-China government relations that the Fed has absolutely no control over. Then, say China sold its debt for cash. The dollar would go offshore, and the domestic money supply would NOT increase. There is a lot more to this game than the simplistic analysis that leads to brainwashing the financial community and investors.
Jerome Powell has no power over fiscal spending or the deficit. Central banks everywhere are trapped. The central banks in Europe are in FAR worse shape right now. When Powell stood before Congress and subtly criticized the Biden Administration by calling their constant spending “unsustainable,” he was attempting to explain that the central bank could not overpower the government here. The central bank can create elastic money, and it will return to doing so. Private capital is fleeing government debt on a global level.
In the end, the globalist agenda is to default on all national debts, and they will no longer need to bail out the bankers. Welcome to the Decline & Fall of Western Civilization.
The late Mark Pittman was a journalist for Bloomberg when, once upon a time, there were still a few actual investigative reporters. Mark did a piece on my operation in Japan. He knew what we were doing, that the accounts were mine, not clients, and that I was buying distressed portfolios. Not one client ever signed a complaint, and there was NO DEFAULT. When they charged me. I met Mark at the Hyatt in NYC across from the Train Station. He knew it was a setup and said: “Marty, we are not going to allow them to do this to you.”
The law says that if you commit fraud, you MUST help the victims get their money back. Further proof of how New York City is a cesspool of corruption: when they realized I was helping my clients go after the bankers, they put a gag order on me to stop me from helping my clients against HSBC/Republic. They have been doing the same to Trump. The Special Prosecutor went as far as to demand a gag order on Trump so that he could not even criticize Biden while campaigning. You cannot make up this stuff. If you wrote a fiction novel with these maneuvers, they would say it is too far-fetched.
I think it is absolutely critical as Trump is put on trial in New York City. I was granted bail in New Jersey. Not a single NY journalist ever reported the Truth no less the courts. I was interviewed by a journalist who asked about the bank illegally trading in my accounts. She asked if they were using my accounts to “launder money for the Russian Mafia as they were doing in Madof?” The banks claimed in Madoff’s case not to have known. That is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE, for you have to know your client rules. They verified every account and the corporate documents behind each one. Madoff pled guilty to an information quickly. He was not indicted and could have defended for a few years. The only reason he did so was clearly to protect his family. Just as in my case, the bank claimed it had no idea where the money was. It is impossible to get $1 billion out of a bank, and nobody knows where it went. There is NO SUCH thing as a fair trial in New York City. Trump is doomed there, and this is all about interfering in the 2024 election.
Mark understood the bankers very well. Bloomberg removed Mark from covering my case and replaced him with David Glovin, who could never praise the government more. It was Mark at Bloomberg who battled in court for years to get the details of those bailouts released to the public. Mark was probably the most professional journalist I ever met. I was told after my case began that Bloomberg purged all the reports Mark had previously written about our firm from their terminals and certainly Japan. It was as if Bloomberg was in on the whole scam.
Mark’s wife, Laura, wrote to me about Mark’s death. It was a sad day, for there was NEVER anyone at Bloomberg I ever met who had the integrity of Mark Pittman.
Posted originally on Jan 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
“Could governments seize bitcoin?” That is a common question, and much to the dismay of many, my opinion does not match the typical analysis. I have lost clients due to my honesty regarding crypto. I understand many firmly believe that Bitcoin will one day become the alternative to the USD, but it is unwise to believe that it is a safe haven to park money. I will not sugar-coat the truth, as feelings must be removed from trading. The answer is an astounding YES – governments can seize Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies.
To begin, there is much speculation around the founder(s) — Satoshi Nakamoto – who created Bitcoin (BTC) on June 3, 2009. The mystery person or group (or government agency) has been MIA since 2011. Yet 1 million Bitcoins remain in their original account, untouched. His wallet is estimated to be up to $73 billion, and if this is indeed an individual, he or she is one of the top 15 richest people in the world. They have never moved a fraction of a BTC from their account. So, one wallet contains 5% of all mined bitcoin. Will this person or entity perpetually hold?
Only 2.3% of Bitcoin owners own a full Bitcoin, while 74% own less than 0.01 BTC. Bitcoin was initially a way to remain under the government’s radar, with people using cash to fund their anonymous accounts. The majority no longer use this method and favor platforms that are required by governments to collect and verify all user data.
Bitcoin’s price is akin to the problem that existed when the bubble burst in 1966 with mutual funds because they were listed back then. The value can change at a volatility rate of 10x that of the dollar, making it a highly dangerous instrument as a store of wealth. It is solely a trading vehicle until they weigh it and the value is changed.
In 1966, investors bid the mutual funds up beyond net asset value so during the crash, people lost everything when they thought it was a secure investment. The net underlying assets may have dropped 20%, but they paid 20% over the net asset value and then sold at 50% of the net asset value. Many mutual funds crashed 70-90%, whereas the Dow drop was 26.5%. Ever since, mutual funds have no longer been allowed to be listed. You go in and out at net asset value. Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.
Countries with strong currencies do not want bitcoin in existence. There are numerous ongoing efforts to regulate all cryptocurrencies, as politicians claim people are using it to either bypass taxes or commit crimes. Governments have reached the end of their rope and are actively on the hunt for additional taxes. They will default on all their debts, and the new monetary system they are planning will give them total control.
Those who call Bitcoin “digital gold” are onto something, as governments have seized gold in recent history. Herbert Hoover admitted in his “Memoirs” that the investigation that led to the creation of the SEC was on the back of a phone call where he was told it was a conspiracy against his administration to create the stock market crash.
Governments will impose capital controls as they always do. That will mean that they will have no intention of allowing people to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. They will most likely do that as well when it comes to gold and silver. A black market in precious metals may exist with a supply that cannot be increased. They might even seize gold mines.
Governments are allowing cryptos like Bitcoin to exist because they can trace the transactions far better than paper currency. Bitcoin is a trading vehicle and nothing more. Just follow Socrates. That gives at least an unbiased viewpoint. What goes up comes down, and what goes down eventually goes up. That is just the law of the market.
Every major central bank has said they plan to move to CBDC. The entire purpose of the CBDC is to impose COMPLETE capital controls. So, how will you buy and sell anything that they deem to be a threat to their totalitarian world?
Posted originally on Jan 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Everyone wants to know what the Federal Reserve will do in 2024. Of course, people want to believe that the Fed will slash interest rates in the New Year. The pundits cling to every word except when, at the start of the month of December, Powell boldly criticized the Biden Administration, saying that his outrageous spending is “unsustainable” and central banks do not criticize their governments. They certainly do not criticize each other. I have met with the boards of central banks worldwide because I understand their predicament. Unless you have been behind those closed doors, you will never comprehend the intricacies that are taking place.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates at the 5.25% to 5.5% range at their last meeting in December 2023. Additionally, the committee indicated the possibility of at least three rate cuts in 2024, as their favored gauges for inflation appear to be easing. The “dot plot,” which reflects individual members’ expectations, suggests the potential for four rate cuts in 2025 and three more in 2026, bringing the rate down to between 2% and 2.25%. Now, that is simply what the public has been led to believe.
The Fed’s last decision reflects a cautious approach to policy tightening, considering multiple factors unknown to the public before any further adjustments. The committee’s PUBLIC decision and future outlook are based on the evolving economic conditions in relation to inflation and the labor market.
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet in 2024 as follows:
Jan. 30-31
Mar. 19-20
Apr. 30 – May 1
Jun. 11-12
Jul. 30-31
Sept. 17-18
Nov. 6-7
Dec. 17-18
There are simply things I cannot publish on the public blog. I have posted articles on the Socrates private blog that explain the Fed’s direction for 2024 in further detail. Now, consider the dates above and consider what events align with them. Further details will be provided in the Year-End Report, which should be out by the end of this week.
The Federal Reserve cannot criticize the federal government. The most significant issues facing our economy are simply out of the Fed’s hands: war, taxation, and government spending. Chairman Jerome Powell surprised everyone when he called current government spending “unsustainable.” While not a direct criticism, Powell issued a stark warning that aligns with our Revolution Cycle of 72 years. In 1951, the central bank defied the US government by refusing to purchase debt to prevent rate hikes amid the Korean War.
So, there is bad news for the perpetual bulls who insist rates must decline. There is a HUGE divergence unfolding between short and long-term rates. Institutions are buying up government debt without considering the potential that rates may not fall. Absolutely no one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.
Posted originally on Dec 29, 2023 By Martin Armstrong |
Several US states are considering legislation to reclassify gold and silver as money rather than commodities. Bills filed in Oklahoma and Missouri aim to eliminate state capital gains taxes on the sale of gold and silver, and to treat these metals as currency. Other states like Arkansas and Utah are also considering introducing similar legislation. The proposed laws also include provisions to authorize the state to invest in gold or silver and to prevent state entities from seizing gold or silver bullion.
These measures are seen as steps toward reducing barriers to using gold and silver as money and lowering the investment cost of precious metals. On the plus, gold and silver may be used in transactions without an additional fee. If I purchase something for $100, I am not charged an additional fee for using USD – but let’s not give the government any ideas. Proponents of the bill say the Federal Reserve has a monopoly on our banking system, and deeming precious metals legal tender would prevent the central bank from having total control over fiat currency.
Not so fast – the government will not relinquish their control over the monetary system. They have told us their plan for digital currencies and deeming gold and silver currency will only make it easier for the government to confiscate. The entire problem that people do not grasp with regard to any return to a gold standard is that if the money supply is FIXED in any way, that necessitates the collapse of SOCIALISM. The two are directly linked. Politicians only know how to run with deficits. “Vote for me and I will give you everything!”
The Bretton Woods gold standard collapsed because they FIXED the price of gold at $35, but they continued to print money far beyond the supply of gold at that fixed price. Then there is the largely ignored business cycle. No matter what the money might be, there will be boom times when the value of money declines and the asset values rise. There is a natural course of a business cycle to the economy you cannot flatline or eliminate no matter how many schemes you invent from central banks, Keynesianism, Monetarism, Socialism, or Communism. It just cannot be accomplished.
The problem is not the physical money we use. The problem is that governments continually abuse their power and recklessly dive deeper into debt with each new spending package. Bretton Woods collapsed, as did every attempt to create any monetary system of some fixed value. Yes, they are not considering a gold-backed system here, but deeming gold and silver legal tender misses the mark. Gold and silver were hedges AGAINST government. The people have been able to use commodities to trade amongst themselves since the dawn of civilization. This legislation permits the government to intervene and naturally impose regulations.
The year 2025 will bring a turning point in Marxism as we reach the midpoint of the 224-year cycle (1913-2025).
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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