Living in the Past – Stalin v Lenin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Apr 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi,
I live in Finland/Helsinki. The Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939, Stalin was one who arranged a false flag in Manila. A lot of Finnish soldiers and civilians died. But we survived. We Finnish people know Russians extremely well. It is a historical fact that Russians always arrange false flags and try to slave other nations and people. And that is happening just now in Ukraine. Putin attacked Ukraine and he is trying to slave Ukraine.
Best Regards from Finland

JT

REPLY: It is important to not judge a country by its leaders. There are always left and right in every country and no country enjoys 100% approval of its people. Just look at the United States. There are ONLY three presidents who won with 60% or more, FDR 1st term, Johnson following Kennedy’s assassination, and Richard Nixon who promised to end Vietnam. All others won with just a few points over 50%. In the 2008 Election of Obama v McCain score his victory with just 52.9%. Even Lenin warned not to put Stalin in charge.

It is wrong to judge Russia by Stalin and today the powers that be just hate the Russian people and attribute everything to Putin. It is essential to also understand that there is a left and a right in Russia that still prevails today and Putin is a moderate that if ignored by the West, will drive Russia into the hands of the extreme right.

We MUST understand history for there has always been a question of where Russia begins and ends and who constitutes the Russian people. These questions have been debated by Russian thinkers themselves for centuries post-Russian Revolution which ended more than 300 years of tsarist rule. Believe it or not, Putin is NOT trying to resurrect the Soviet Union for that was not even the vision of Lenin – but Stalin.


At first, Lenin was revered as the architect of the new Russia. He was the elder statesman of the Bolshevik revolution. Stalin, on the other hand, was what we would call a Neocon. He was the ambitious party leader with visions of absolute authoritarian control. The two clashed not only over their political vision for Russia but also on a very personal level hurling insults steeped in grudges. It was this battle that actually proved to be too much for Lenin resulting in his premature death.

The conflict between these two Russian leaders reached a climax in the last days of December 1922. This is when 2,000 delegates from all over the former Russian empire gathered together in Moscow to create a new state which would become the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The vision of this new state was starkly different between the two men. There were republics of Ukraine, Belarus, and Transcaucasia, which were formally independent of Russia. When Georgy Chicherin, the Soviet Russian commissar for foreign relations, signed the treaty with Germany where each surrendered their claims against the other for war reparations in July 1918, there was a problem of unity. Ukraine and Belarus were independent before 1919 but were then overrun by the Bolsheviks in 1919. They had objected to forgiving Germany.

Ukraine and Belarus took the position that the Russian authorities had no right to speak on behalf of Ukrainian and Belarus. In Georgia, there too they objected insisting that their rights as the members of an independent republic were violated. This is was ultimately set in motion the birth of the final version of the Soviet Union.

It was in August of 1922 when Joseph Stalin created a special commission to recommend a new political model of relations between the communist Party’s Central Committee, Russia and the republics. Stalin’s proposal was called the “autonomization of the republics” whereby the formally independent republics would be incorporated into the Russian Soviet Federation with rights of autonomy. However, the Russian Federation would become the central authority subordinating the formally independent republics. This resulted in a rebellion with the Georgians led the revolt against Stalin’s model. They were joined by the Ukrainians and Belarusians.

This conflict between Lenin’s vision of a union more akin to the United States model and Lenin’s vision of absolute central power resulted in the heated conversation with Feliks Dzerzhinsky, who was the head of the secret police and a supporter of Stalin. Stalin and many of his supporters, such as Ordzhonikidze and Dzerzhinsky, were actually non-Russians. Stalin was Georgian and Dzerzhinsky was actiually Polish. Interestingly, Felix Dzerzhinsky was remembered in St Petersburg on a Commemorative plaque dedicated him.

But the stroke prevented him from taking any decisive steps against them. Two days later, a commission of party officials, led by Stalin, placed strict limitations on Lenin’s activities, effectively isolating him. They said the restrictions were designed to prevent the worsening of Lenin’s health. But they also served a political purpose.

Lenin could not attend the congress and he certainly did not trust Stalin. Consequently, the paralyzed Lenin dictated his famous thoughts on the nationality question in a document he sent to the party leadership. It was a letter titled “On the Question of Nationalities or ‘Autonomization.’” On December 31st, 1922, he attacked Stalin’s policies criticizing the rights provided to the republics by the Union treaty, deeming them inadequate to stop the rise of Great Russian nationalism. Lenin called this threat as “great-power chauvinism.” To Lenin saw these people as non-Russians who he did not trust and feared for the future of the Russian people.

In Lenin believed that Stalin, who was not Russia, posed a major threat to Russia. He viewed Stalin’s dream of the USSR as a threat to the unity of state which he was correct. Lenin’s idea of a union of independent states would be sustained by local autonomy taking into account their local customes. Lenin was prepared to replace the Union he had originally proposed with a looser association of states with the centralized powers to be confined to matters of defense and international relations exclusively. Lenin also maintained that the republics should retain the right of secession to prevent Stalin’s central dominance of authority.

I highly recommend watching the movie Mr. Jones. While this will NOT show the battle between Lenin and Stalin, it will show the ruthlessness of Stalin that Lenin feared. But Stalin was NOT a Russian, but he has tarnish the reputation of all Russians ever since. It is ironic that Stalin was a Georgian, which is in the Caucuses bordering Turkey where they hate Russians for the very oppression of Stalin.

So, as you can see, this is a very complex subject. Putin is not a follower of Stalin wheras other behind him are. So we should be very care what we wish for when it comes to Regime Change. Just maybe they know this as well and want Regime Change to ensure war. Very interesting indeed. We should NOT judge Putin by Stalin or all Russians for that matter. That is the propaganda of the Neocons who are still fighting against Stalin.

Capital Flows Confirm War is Coming!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow Re-Posted Mar 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Our models have confirmed that Biden’s sanctions against all Russians have undeniably destroyed the global economy unfortunately precisely on time from its birth in 1950. Our capital flow models have confirmed that there has been an unprecedented cash outflow from China following Biden’s sanctions. Not only are we witnessing a withdrawal of Western capital from China realizing that the US has no interest in peace and China will be next, but we are also looking at collapsing confidence in globalization continuing from here on out.

Our models have confirmed a highly unusual change in direction of the global capital flows which is even showing up in the emerging markets. China saw investors pull out from its share markets over concerns that we are clearly headed into World War III. Historically, the capital flows to the dollar during world war under the assumption that tanks will not be landing on the beaches of Virginia or California. This will tend to support the dollar, but not long-term. Biden’s sanctions attacking individual Russians have turned into a nightmare. Besides the Czech Republic seizing ALL assets of any Russian based upon their ethnicity as they were doing to the Japanese during World War II in the United States, now even Switzerland is doing the same thing.

These sanctions are not going to cause regime change and the overthrow of Putin with Russians running into the arms of the West. This is outright hatred of Russians as a people and they will have no choice but bond with China in an all-out war against this outrageous tyranny. I seriously doubt that Biden even understands what he is doing at the directions of these Neocons who have infiltrated the White House.

These Neocons are bringing the entire world to destruction which some argue is all part of their plan to enable the world to BUILD BACK BETTER which necessitates the destruction of the current energy system and reduction of population to make Bill Gates sleep easy at night. So the next season of BUILD BACK BETTER may be the climax.

Our model has ALWAYS picked up the shifts in capital flows that precede war. This time we are witnessing outflows not just from China, but also from ALL emerging markets on a scale that is simply unprecedented. The timing of outflows is clearly linked to Biden’s unprecedented sanctions against the Russian people – not just Russia itself as a political state. This has NEVER taken place in history before with the single exception of the US sanctions imposed on Japan and the freezing of all their assets in the United States which preceded Pearl Harbor.

It pains me to have to even write this today. But clearly, those who understand where this is going is to World War III and make no mistake about it – this is INTENTIONAL! Even the official data has revealed that foreign investors have sold a net $5.5 billion of Chinese government bonds in the last few weeks. Biden stupidly threatened China that if they support Russia, they will suffer the same sanctions. This is just insane and it is DELIBERATELY trying to destroy the entire world economy.

Even from NATO, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference on March 24, “China must not provide economic or military support for the Russian invasion.” The previous day he accused Beijing of spreading “blatant lies and misinformation.” What they are calling “misinformation” is anything that challenges the West’s own propaganda. They want WAR for the demands of Putin are reasonable – Ukraine remains neutral, surrender Donbas and Crimea which are all ethnic Russians when Zelensky passed the language law that Russian is no longer to be an official language in Ukraine. That is the same as telling all Spanish if you do not speak English – get out.

All we can do is write to every political leader and DEMAND accountability for the Biden Administration is out to BUILD BACK BETTER, but that requires total destruction first.

Czech Republic to Seize All Russian People’s Assets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Mar 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Leading Czech politicians are calling for all property within the Czech Republic of all Russians to be indefinitely ‘frozen’ in violation of international law. The onus would be on the victims to “prove” that they are against the Putin regime. There are about 40,000 Russians living in the Czech Republic, plus others who have property or businesses there.

The EU is increasing being viewed as an evil, lawless, government. However, the Eastern European EU members are now even worse than the Western ones. They seem to go further violating international law trying to prove to the West that they are good little obedient vassals. Fischer is violating every principle of what the EU was supposed to stand for – human rights. The Czech Republic has clearly begun a new cycle which began with the COVID  Crash.

Blackrock CEO Advances Proposal for Global Digital Payment System and Digital Currency


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 24, 2022

When CTH outlined the ‘Destination Handbasket’ framework {Go Deep}, we had no idea Blackrock CEO Larry Fink was essentially going to confirm the premise of our prediction.  Keep in mind, any digital currency can only work if there is a digital identity attributed to it – what some have called a digital passport which then creates a crypto wallet.

I have based the framework, of what appears to be over the horizon, on a set of inevitable geopolitical outcomes if the current path is continued.  The letter by Blackrock CEO Larry Fink [LINK] seems to affirm the strongest likelihood of a western-inspired digital currency eventually replacing the dollar.

NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) – BlackRock Inc’s (BLK.N) chief executive, Larry Fink, said on Thursday that the Russia-Ukraine war could end up accelerating digital currencies as a tool to settle international transactions, as the conflict upends the globalization drive of the last three decades.

In a letter to the shareholders of the world’s largest asset manager, Fink said the war will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, and that BlackRock was studying digital currencies and stablecoins due to increased client interest.

“A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption”, he said.

[…] In the letter on Thursday, the chairman and CEO of the $10 trillion asset manager said the Russia-Ukraine crisis had put an end to the globalization forces at work over the past 30 years.

[…] “While companies’ and consumers’ balance sheets are strong today, giving them more of a cushion to weather these difficulties, a large-scale reorientation of supply chains will inherently be inflationary,” said Fink.

He said central banks were dealing with a dilemma they had not faced in decades, having to choose between living with high inflation or slowing economic activity to contain price pressures.  (read more)

You see that problem, that “dilemma” Fink mentions in the last paragraph above.  That is what we have been talking about on these pages for more than two years.   It is a dilemma western government created when they all joined together and followed the exact same financial path during the pandemic.

When western governments used the justification of the global pandemic to shut down their economies, enforce lockdowns and all of the subsequent rules, restrictions and economic pains as a direct result of those decisions, they put us on a crisis path that was always going to bring us to this “dilemma.”  Quite frankly, I do not see that unity of action as accidental, nor do I see it as organic.

All of the western leaders followed the same monetary and financial policy that was being advanced by the World Economic Forum.  They all spent like crazy, and provided tens-of-trillions in bailouts, subsidies and cash payments to cover the economic losses created by their COVID lockdowns.  They all did exactly the same thing, and that collective action is why we have ‘global inflation.’

Perversely, while inflation crushes the working class, global inflation works to their benefit by lowering the cost of the debt the politicians created, which the central bands and federal reserve facilitated.  We the citizens are suffering under inflation, but the governments that created the inflation actually benefit from it.

I will say with great deliberateness, these western governments want inflation.  Sure, it provides a political challenge for those who need to get reelected by voters, but in the bigger of big pictures, they need inflation.  Think about it in very simple terms.  If they did not want inflation, those same central banks and federal reserve policy makers would have raised interest rates six to eight months ago.

None of what is happening in supply chains and inflation is a surprise to them; they might pretend not to know, but these are not stupid people.  This is by design.  Media covers for them because, well, I’ll accept the PR firms for the regimes are idiots. However, the people who constructed these policies to take advantage of COVID-19 are not dummies.  They knew what all that intervention, manipulation and govt spending would lead to.

Where we are going now is a self-fulfilling prophecy, a destination that is a result of specific action the guided policymakers have taken.

Yes, in hindsight, all of it does seem planned to a long-term eventual conclusion.  However, I’m not going to make that specific affirmation just yet; there are still strong elements of ‘not letting a crisis go to waste’ as the leading driver.  Did these governing bodies create the underlying crisis?  We can debate that, but the point is essentially moot.  We are where we are.

The vaccination protocol created the Vax-Passport.  That has opened the door to the digital identity, “digital id.”   Any government created digital currency is going to need a digital id from the outset.

There are a lot of people asking where this is going, and what can be done to stop it.  I’m pretty certain we have accurately identified “Where This is Going,” and I’m a lot more confident now about that aspect than I was even just 24 hours ago.  However, knowing that, now we need to look closer at what they would do to stop us from disrupting it.

Comments & Free Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Mar 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.

But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.

So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.

EM

COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.

All the best from Poland

and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw

VA

REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.

Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.

There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.