Tag Archives: No Random Walks Allowed

Apr 13 2024

Opening Your Eyes or Remain as the Fool on the Hill


Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

65d9f5b61b1918cc45e4724d

COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.

Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.

Jeb

That Post 2/24/24 Was:

The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.

bulls bears Pendulum

ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law traded on the exchange in Amsterdam and came up with the theory of Supply and demand.

Henry VIII Debased Groats

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the floor in Amsterdam, representing the English Crown. He saw how Henry VIII’s debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more. He came up with the idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation.

I invented capital flow analysis because, in the ’80s, I, too, observed how capital was rushing around the world, driving markets up and down. If you do not open your eyes, you will remain nothing more than the fool on the hill.

Gold False Moves

Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.

FT June 27 1998
1998 LTCM Crash
WP IMF Dinner

All the bankers and hedge funds were on the same trade with Russia. I was invited down to the dinner they put on to buy influence in the IMF at the National Gallery.  I told them the market would crash and refused to join. When it crashed, they blamed me rather than admit they were all wrong. If they were so powerful, why do they always blow themselves up with Russia, mortgage-backed securities, you name it?

NO BID

No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. Anyone who claims gold was suppressed because it was manipulated simply was an excuse because their analysis was wrong. That is total BS to claim any market can be manipulated, converting a bull to a bear market.  Everything is arbitraged on a global scale.

The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.

Foucault Pendulum

The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.

NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE

Apr 12 2024

“The FED’s Calling Us Stupid”: Brat On How The FED’s Putting Down Half The Country With Policies


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 11, 2024 at 02:00 pm EST

Apr 11 2024

Paper Bonds – Another Strike Against Govt Debt


Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

1973 E Series US 25 savings Bond

The US Treasury stopped issuing paper savings bonds in January 2012, switching to online platforms. There is a slight exception where a paper Series I may be purchased with proceeds from a federal income tax refund, but they are extremely rare. What they failed to explain is that US banks are NOT required to cash in these bonds.

A friend’s daughter recently ran into an issue on her 30th birthday when she attempted to cash in a number of bonds that had finally matured. Her bank simply told her, “No. We will not cash them.” She called customer service, and the bank explained that they had no legal obligation to cash government bonds.

USBonds

She was told She was told to mail in the paper bonds to with a completed FS Form 1522 to the Treasury directly along with copies of her personal government-issued identifications. Obviously, this does not seem secure as mail is lost all the time regardless of tracking numbers.

There are currently no options to cash paper savings bonds online. The government has made it deliberately difficult to cash in these bonds. She attempted a loophole where you previously were able to redeem bonds at larger institutions if they were worth under $1,000, but still, she her request was declined.

According to Treasury Direct, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” We have seen numerous banks fail and begin to consolidate. Regional banks are struggling with liquidity and larger institutions simply do not want to hand out cash if they’re not required to do so.

Naturally my friend wished those 30-year bonds were invested in equities or anything other than bonds. She would have made far more than the government bonds could ever provide, and now it will be a difficult task to snail mail personal information to the Treasury and await a response. Yet another strike against purchasing government debt.

Apr 9 2024

Strong Jobs Report Does Not Mean Strong Economy


Posted originally on Apr 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Jobs

One thing that analysts fail to explain is that Americans have begun working multiple jobs since the COVID pandemic that wrecked the global economy. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in March, but there are millions of Americans holding multiple jobs who can still not keep up with the cost of living even with wages up 4.1% in the past year.

Around 5.3% of the US workforce held more than one job, on the books, in 2019 but that slowed during the pandemic when businesses were unable to open. In September 2022, 4.9% of American workers (7.7 million people) held more than one job (on the books) as the economy began to slowly recover but that trend did not stay in motion due to rampant inflation and the cost of living. By October 2023, 5.2% of the US workforce (8.4 million people)  held more than one job.

Now Hiring

Women are more likely than men to work multiple jobs. And we wonder why there is a birth rate crisis. Around 6% of US women in the workforce had two or more jobs by October 2023 compared to 4.7% of men.

Now these are simply the figures for those working on the books. The Biden Administration killed the gig economy when Americans relied on it the most by imposing numerous regulations that forced companies to classify contractors as employees. Then we have states carelessly raising the minimum wage, eliminating the number of available jobs, and raising costs for businesses overall.

Only 62.7% of abled Americans are participating in the workforce. This does not include the 7.4+ illegal migrants who cannot obtain working permits but rely on government aid. Then they “revise” the jobs report every month, with January’s overwhelming report of 353,000 new jobs now down by 27,000, and February’s posting shedding 5,000. Then if you read between the lines, the number of part-time workers, who do not have benefits, rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, but this is drastically understated as many people work under the table or in odd jobs.

The jobs report is by no means an indication of a strong economy.

Apr 8 2024

4.7.24: LT w/ Dr. Elliott: Illegal voting, Bird Flu, SILVER, Central Banks buying Gold, How you can grow. Pray!


Posted originally on Rumble By And We Know on: Apr 7, 2024 at 12:00 pm EST

Apr 6 2024

WarRoom Battleground EP 508: Mainstream Manipulation Of The Job Numbers


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 6, 2024 at 01:00 am EST

Apr 6 2024

Dave Brat Explains The True State Of The Economy And How Bad Bidenomics Is


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 5, 2024 at 10:30 pm EST

Apr 3 2024

Ep 3320a – Is The Fed Preparing A Deep Rate Cut To Keep Economy Propped Up, Alt Currency Will Surge


Posted originally on Rumble By X 22 Report on: Apr 2, 2024 at 7:30 pm EST

Apr 3 2024

Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold?


Posted Apr 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

US20Gold pile 2

Investors’ curiosity has peaked as central banks are increasing their gold purchases. We are not going back to a Bretton Woods type situation and that is not the issue. You must understand that gold is neutral. Central banks are buying gold because the Neocons have weaponized the dollar.

Russia was removed from the SWIFT system, and private citizens’ assets were confiscated. When Russian assets were removed from SWIFT, a threat to the world was issued to say, “Hey, if you don’t do what we tell you to do, we will take you out of SWIFT.”

This is not the end of the dollar. Money continues to pour into US equities, particularly the Dow. Why? When the drum of war is beating, major institutions rush to move their money into a safe haven, which happens to be the US at this point in time. The big money is not purchasing start-up equities on the Nasdaq, for example, as they will not take that risk. Our computer model indicates the Dow will continue rising into 2032 as it remains one of the last safe havens.

The West has become extremely aggressive in its geopolitics. You simply do not buy the debt of your enemy. Central banks are buying gold because the USD is political.

There is a stark difference between short-term and long-term bonds. The central banks have zero control over the short-term and that is how this whole QE fiasco began as central banks began purchasing long-term debt in an attempt to reduce long-term interest. Why would you buy long-term when war, the primary driver of inflation, is looming? This is a serious situation that the neocons who have weaponized the dollar simply do not understand.

Apr 3 2024

How to Destroy a Nation in 2 Generations


Posted originally on Apr 3, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

Inheritance 2

QUESTION: I believe you analyzed inheritance and how altering it had contributed to society’s decline. Politicians here in Australia are talking about when you die; everything should go to the state because it is not fair that one person inherits more than another.

I would greatly appreciate any comments you might have historically on that subject.

Bret

Inheritance Tax

REPLY: Yes, I forgot when I did that analysis. It was a long time ago. Inheritance Taxes are Marxist and highly destructive economically. Suppose you have a company worth $100 million; your children must pay 40% taxes. They have to fire people and sell assets to cover the tax. This has been HIGHLY destructive in farming. Heirs have been forced to sell off farmland to pay the tax. This is how large farming companies and Bill Gates have accumulated farmland. This exploitation of the heir reduces productivity and thus reduces GDP and employment.

Before Marxism, inheritance became the primary reason the first son inherited everything during the Middle Ages, and the second son was donated to the church to become a priest, whether he liked it or not. In ancient times, if you had many children and evenly divided an estate among them, you effectively destroyed society’s productive capacity.

Charlemagne 11

There had previously been two types of marriage in France, temporary and permanent, until the Catholic Church insisted on only permanent marriages. Charlemagne married all his daughters in only a “temporary” marriage, meaning that they possessed no legal right to the throne or property. That was the distinction between the two types. The question of inheritance was a major issue historically.

The ancients knew the consequences of dividing estates (partibility) among heirs. Sparta in Greece rewarded fathers based on the number of children. Sparta wanted soldiers, so the more children, the better. But Sparta undermined its own economy in the process. Production of children was rewarded in Sparta, and the fathers of three or four sons were exempted from military service and other economic burdens. Aristotle is sharply critical of this practice and wrote:

“It is obvious that, if there were many children, the land being distributed as it is, many of them must necessarily fall into poverty.”

If you create a major company like Ford Motors and you die, then the government is only interested in grabbing taxes. They think nothing about the jobs this company creates. The ancients realized that even dividing it up equally among the heirs destroys the productive capacity of the entity. This is why they evolved into the first son who inherited everything to preserve the estate rather than destroy it.

Jefferson Greatest Threat

After 2032, we MUST prohibit any such idea of direct taxation (income/inheritance) as the Founding Fathers of the US Constitution intended. They understood this lesson from the past – Marx was a hateful, jealous person, only concerned with not having as much as his neighbor. This is what has brought us to the brink of disaster. Our government has followed Marx rather than those who created the Constitution out of experience.

Paine on Govt

Thomas Paine was famous for saying: Give me liberty or death. But he also made it very clear why history repeats fro the people refuse to ever learn:

“Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worse state, an intolerable one.”