To Those Mocking Safe Havens


Posted 0riginally on Apr 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

A word to individuals who mock those looking for safe havens. We do not realize how lucky we are to live in America, Canada, or elsewhere during this current time period. Those who write in desperately seeking a safe haven are NOT simply greedy people looking to evade taxation. People are looking to evade government oppression.

Zelensky playing Solier 2

Take a look at Russia and Ukraine. I know a woman with family in Russia. She can visit Russia, but her son cannot. Her son was born in Russia but has lived in America since he was a child. If he were to step foot on Russian soil, he would be required to serve in the war. There are countless Ukrainian men hiding out with their families, praying that Zelensky fails so that the war will come to an end. Families with young boys do not want to see their sons go to war when they reach a certain age. Young men in these nations simply do not have a future other than acting as cannon fodder in a senseless war that in no way benefits their people. Ukraine is asking older men to join the war effort now too as the replenishment rate is unsustainable. People may flee overseas, but the government will seek them out and punish them if they dare to return. The place they once called home no longer exists.

The government owns them.

Covid Conspiracy R

We are witnessing all governments diving deeper into tyranny amid this wave of private confidence where all hope in government is lost. Many western governments are now attempting to impose ridiculous taxes that ensure the people are financially owned by the state.

Draft Military

The West is already talking about requiring women to serve as well amid this woke ideology where we live in a genderless society where a “birthing person” has no role in caring for future generations as it is the government’s job. Hence why governments are eliminating parents’ rights to choose what their children learn in schools or believe because, as Joe Biden said, your child is “everyone’s kid.”

Power Grab 2

This goes far beyond merely evading taxation. Militaries are continually failing to meet their annual recruitment standards. Younger readers do not recall the last US draft for Vietnam. Families gathered around the TV and anxiously awaited the government’s lottery drawing. If your birthday was selected by the lottery drawing, you were required to serve in the military and leave your life behind.

The drums of war are beating loudly. The West may only be supplying financial aid and extorting its people for financial aid—for now. Our politicians have control over our lives and our futures, or lack thereof.

Why We Cannot Reach the Fed’s 2% Inflation Target


Posted originally on Apr 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Inflation

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on April 10 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and by 3.5% on the yearly. One must only look at their bills, items in the store, or open their eyes to see that the cost of living in every area has far surpassed this figure. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell released some disparaging comments regarding the data, and we should not expect any rate declines in the near-term. The Fed’s 2% target is simply not possible due to excessive government spending. Inflation was never transitory and we have not had a soft landing. Yet, the Biden Administration insists the “economy is going in the right direction.”

Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has insisted that greedy corporations are to blame for price gouging. He’s repeatedly called on large corporations, more specifically, to pass along their savings on to their customers. We’ve said that. We’ve been very consistent about that.  And that includes rip-offs such as shrinkflation,” she insists.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also voices positive sentiments on inflations, citing how inflation is down two-thirds from its peak in June 2022 when it reached 9.1%. Yellen fails to voice that inflation had peaked due to the entire global economy shutting down due to the pandemic that created the most significant supply chain shortage I have witnessed in my lifetime. This is also why we see “strong” jobs reports in contrast to the lockdown that decimated small businesses and caused thousands to lose their ability to provide for their families.

Remember, inflation was only 1.4% when Joe Biden took office – far beneath the Fed’s target. Inflation has risen as a direct result of fiscal policies under Bidenomics.

Joe Biden mistakenly believes he has helped to tame inflation, and the private sector is solely responsible for the high cost of living. “Today’s report shows inflation has fallen more than 60% from its peak, but we have more to do to lower costs for hardworking families. Prices are still too high for housing and groceries, even as prices for key household items like milk and eggs are lower than a year ago,” according to a statement on the White House website.

Yellen and all those in line with the current administration want the public to believe that Russia and a slow-to-recover supply chain crisis caused inflation. “And I also want to remind you what caused inflation. We know that inflation was caused by supply chains that broke down because of the pandemic. Russia’s war in Ukraine — we know that caused oil prices to skyrocket. Our economy was disrupted by so many ways because of the pandemic.  That’s what caused inflation,” Yellen stated in March.

BlankCheck

Russia’s war in Ukraine would have had minimal effect on America. In fact, America could have profited on the issue by exporting energy and agricultural goods to Europe. The issue is that the US government has been sending blank checks to Ukraine and digging itself deeper into debt. The national debt has never been higher and shows no signs of stopping. The war shows no sign of stopping and Biden has ignored any calls to curtail funding Ukraine. Then, Biden’s largest spending packages have gone to climate change initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which Yellen herself said was intended to combat climate change.

As for the supply chain crisis, primarily energy, those who read this blog understand what happened with Nordstream. Biden’s first act as president was to eliminate the Keystone Pipeline plans and place countless regulations on the energy sector that caused America to become an energy-dependent nation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been used as a political tool to play with gas prices and removed America’s energy safety net.

Oil Reserves

Jerome Powell stated that the jobs report was unimpressive in comparison to rising inflation. “More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal,” the Fed chief said during a panel discussion this Tuesday. What Powell cannot voice out loud is that government policy has made the Fed’s job impossible. There is absolutely nothing that the central bank can do to curb government spending. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said. The economy is heading in the wrong direction, yet Washington is continually gas lighting the public into believing the economy has recovered. The economy fell with COVID, but the pandemic is no longer the reason that rates are rising.

Are companies price gouging? Some certainly have been. The price of business has also drastically risen in every area. TAXES are through the roof and everyone is forced to raise prices, landlords included, to meet Biden’s tax hikes that are simply unconstitutional. Why are we paying for foreign wars and foreign nationals to live within the US?

It is ridiculous to believe that the private sector is to blame for inflation. Even the Federal Reserve has said that they are at the mercy of the government’s fiscal policy and cannot do anything to prevent excessive, dangerous government spending. Inflation will not go down so long as the government is funding wars, which produce nothing, and thoughtless non-issues such as climate change that are rooted in America Last policies.

Collective Debt – We Must All Pay for Student Loans


Posted Apr 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

NationalDebtNYCVBillboard

Biden is destroying the financial future of generations with his reckless spending in an attempt to buy votes. Fed Chair Powell nearly admitted it in his interview with 60 Minutes in which he urged the government to show restraint when plunging the nation deeper into debt. Biden and the Democrats are cheering that he will “cancel” debt for an additional 277,000 under the SAVE plan. Do people not realize by now that the taxpayer is paying for this debt cancelation?

Biden already “forgave” the debts of 4.3 million borrowers, but the banks have not, and neither have the universities. The liberals believe the Big Guy is magically opening his wallet or waving a magic wand and making the debt disappear. NO – the lenders will receive a repayment, but now WE, the people, must pay for the debts of a few. This would be akin to the president saying that federal funds would be used to forgive personal mortgage loans – people simply cannot afford them at the moment, and it is the socially just thing to do. Forget about the people who chose not to buy a home because it did not fit within their budgets. Perhaps we should forgive all EV car payments, t00, and hey, that money we owe to foreign nations? Well, that will be a discussion for another time since we simply won’t have the money to repay.

2023_01_09_19_31_04_Federal_Debt_Held_by_Foreign_and_International_Investors_FDHBFIN_FRED_St._

Newsflash – the youth do not approve of Joe Biden. They are afraid to fight in a war overseas in which they see no patriotic cause to go. His supporters on the far-left support HAMAS. Not Palestine, but Hamas. A Harvard-Harris poll conducted in October asked, “In general in this conflict, do you side more with Israel or Hamas?” Among Gen Z voters, 48% said they supported the terrorist organization. Those with clarity do not support any war and certainly do not support sending countless aid to Ukraine and Israel.

Tax season caused some of the woke young Americans to question their financial identities, and I reported that one poll found that nearly a quarter of first-time filers actually planned to seek psychological help upon filing taxes. No one explained to them how this sinister system actually works.

We do not live in a Democracy. We did not vote on whether we wanted to spend over $7 billion to dismiss the financial obligations of others. Furthermore, this is a clear and deliberate attempt to BUY VOTES ahead of the election. Biden is simply polling so low that he is desperate to do anything to garner support, be it ushering in a new population of migrants or gaslighting the public into believing they are better off today.

Biden 2024 Lets finish the job

WE the people have spent $153,000,0000,000 on buying votes through student loan bailouts. On June 30, 2023, the Supreme Court declared Biden’s forgiveness programs unconstitutional. The Biden regime has never followed the Constitution and has actively sought ways to dismiss the very documents this nation was founded on. “I believe the Court’s decision to strike down my student debt relief program was a mistake, was wrong. So, we need to find a new way and we’re moving as fast as we can,” Biden was scripted to say after the ruling. Is there an amendment that this man has not dismissed?

The national debt crisis should scare you. Biden-Harris and the neocons are borrowing against future generations of Americans. The government believes it can shake down the citizens for additional taxes, but even if they confiscated all of our assets, it would not be enough to cover their continual spending.

Again, I want to state the importance of Jerome Powell’s words. It is unusual for the central bank to break with the government for any reason.

“In the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The US federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path and that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy,” Powell finally warned, later adding, “effectively, we are borrowing from future generations.” He warned that we must begin to prioritize fiscal policy immediately to fix this unending crisis.

Forget rate cuts. Forget a balanced budget or even seeing anything remotely in the green. Not only are we funding 2.5 wars and millions of unemployed migrants, but we are also funding the climate change hysteria that demands we implode our economy. The Inflational Reduction Act was merely the beginning. These spending packages are the greatest threat to our nation’s economy as we simply CANNOT REPAY OUR DEBT. Worse — we have turned our main buyers into enemies and will soon be left holding the bag as no one will come to rescue America.

Categories:CORRUPTIONECONOMICSPOLITICS

Interview on Interest Rates


Posted Apr 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Not Even Central Banks Can Manipulate Markets – NOBODY


Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Louvre Accord Plaza Accord

QUESTION: Can central banks not even manipulate the markets?

FS

PlazaAccord 1

ANSWER: No.  Here is the track record of the central banks when they created the Group of 5 (now G20) in 1985. I warned them they would create a crash within two years. But look at what happened. The fools assumed the central banks could manipulate the dollar. When the Plaza Accord took place, the dollar had already peaked. Because the fools thought the decline was all because of the central banks, when the dollar had fallen too far, they held the Louvre Accord and came out saying the dollar had fallen far enough. When the dollar moved low again, the 1987 Crash too place BECAUSE the central banks were perceived to have no control.

2015_Martin_Armstrong_is_the_Forex_Person_of_the_Year_About_FXStreet

I was named FOREX Person of the year for calling the collapse of the Swiss/Euro Peg. I even met with the Swiss central bank and warned them, They said they would be able to hold the peg and and said now way. I have met with more central banks than probably anyone – ever. I have been in the room when the red phone was ringing between the G5 on manipulating currencies. I need not engage in conspiracy theories. We have first-hand experience.

IBBPUS Y 1985 1.05

Even go back to the US Civil War. The dollar was collapsing, and the price of gold soared regarding greenbacks. Lincoln did everything. He shut down gold trading on the New York Stock Exchange. They then traded on the curb and created the Gold Room. Nothing worked.

1864 Nov 18 Price of Gold Folly to Regulate It

Here is the New York Times from November 18th, 1864. They observed the “folly of attempting to regulate the price [of gold] or any other article of traffic by forcible interference.” Anyone who claims that gold was suppressed because of manipulation made that up because they do not understand that gold DOES NOT rise linked to inflation. Gold soars when there is a collapse in confidence in government and in times of war, just as it did during the Civil War.

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GCNYNF Y 7 7 22

Gold declined for 19 years while inflation rose and the National Debt exploded. Gold has rallied only when the CONFIDENCE in government has declined as we are seeing today. People are getting very tense. In Texas, a guy drove his 18-wheeler into a Texas Public Safety office after being denied a Commercial Drivers License.

Gallup 28 all Institutions 2022

CONFIDENCE has collapsed by about 50% since 1980. The movie coming out tomorrow on April 12th is the Civil War.  Such a movie 20 years ago would have been unheard of.

Opening Your Eyes or Remain as the Fool on the Hill


Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

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COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.

Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.

Jeb


That Post 2/24/24 Was:

The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.


bulls bears Pendulum

ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law traded on the exchange in Amsterdam and came up with the theory of Supply and demand.

Henry VIII Debased Groats

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the floor in Amsterdam, representing the English Crown. He saw how Henry VIII’s debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more. He came up with the idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation.

I invented capital flow analysis because, in the ’80s, I, too, observed how capital was rushing around the world, driving markets up and down. If you do not open your eyes, you will remain nothing more than the fool on the hill.

Gold False Moves

Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.

FT June 27 1998
1998 LTCM Crash
WP IMF Dinner

All the bankers and hedge funds were on the same trade with Russia. I was invited down to the dinner they put on to buy influence in the IMF at the National Gallery.  I told them the market would crash and refused to join. When it crashed, they blamed me rather than admit they were all wrong. If they were so powerful, why do they always blow themselves up with Russia, mortgage-backed securities, you name it?

NO BID

No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. Anyone who claims gold was suppressed because it was manipulated simply was an excuse because their analysis was wrong. That is total BS to claim any market can be manipulated, converting a bull to a bear market.  Everything is arbitraged on a global scale.

The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.

Foucault Pendulum

The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.

NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE

“The FED’s Calling Us Stupid”: Brat On How The FED’s Putting Down Half The Country With Policies


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 11, 2024 at 02:00 pm EST

Paper Bonds – Another Strike Against Govt Debt


Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

1973 E Series US 25 savings Bond

The US Treasury stopped issuing paper savings bonds in January 2012, switching to online platforms. There is a slight exception where a paper Series I may be purchased with proceeds from a federal income tax refund, but they are extremely rare. What they failed to explain is that US banks are NOT required to cash in these bonds.

A friend’s daughter recently ran into an issue on her 30th birthday when she attempted to cash in a number of bonds that had finally matured. Her bank simply told her, “No. We will not cash them.” She called customer service, and the bank explained that they had no legal obligation to cash government bonds.

USBonds

She was told She was told to mail in the paper bonds to with a completed FS Form 1522 to the Treasury directly along with copies of her personal government-issued identifications. Obviously, this does not seem secure as mail is lost all the time regardless of tracking numbers.

There are currently no options to cash paper savings bonds online. The government has made it deliberately difficult to cash in these bonds. She attempted a loophole where you previously were able to redeem bonds at larger institutions if they were worth under $1,000, but still, she her request was declined.

According to Treasury Direct, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” We have seen numerous banks fail and begin to consolidate. Regional banks are struggling with liquidity and larger institutions simply do not want to hand out cash if they’re not required to do so.

Naturally my friend wished those 30-year bonds were invested in equities or anything other than bonds. She would have made far more than the government bonds could ever provide, and now it will be a difficult task to snail mail personal information to the Treasury and await a response. Yet another strike against purchasing government debt.

US Failing to Add 1 Million Manufacturing Jobs


Posted originally on Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

manufacturing man 1

I have already criticized the March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. The mainstream media is cheering the 303,000 position boost as proof that the American economy is on the right path. I noted in an earlier blog post that the number of part-time workers rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, as Americans cannot afford the current cost of living even with wages rising 4.1% YoY.

One additional aspect—not a single manufacturing job was added to the US economy in March. The BLS claims that manufacturing jobs held steady at 12,956,000 from February, although 10,000 manufacturing positions were cut in January.

InflationReductionAct.meme_

The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that was intended to expand American manufacturing. As Yellen and others have openly stated, the Inflation Reduction Act, America’s most expensive spending package, was intended to promote the climate change agenda.

Clean energy manufacturing is not profitable and, therefore, not expanding. “According to third-party estimates, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy tax incentives have the potential to drive investment that will support more than 1 million jobs in energy and related manufacturing sectors over the coming decade,” the US Department of Treasury stated in October 2023.

“To receive increased credit and deduction amounts under the Inflation Reduction Act, taxpayers must:

  • Pay workers the local prevailing wage, defined in accordance with Department of Labor standards, for work on facility construction, as well as for alterations and repairs in a five-to-twelve-year period, depending on the credit, after a facility is placed in service.
  • Hire a sufficient proportion of workers from registered apprenticeship programs, including hiring these qualified apprentices for at least 10% of the labor hours spent on facility construction, alteration, or repair work (rising to 12.5% for facilities where construction begins in 2023 and 15% in 2024 and later years)

The prevailing wage and apprenticeship provisions apply to:

  • the Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit (30C)
  • the Production Tax Credit (45, 45Y)
  • the Credit for Carbon Oxide Sequestration (45Q)
  • the Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen (45V)
  • the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z)
  • the Investment Tax Credit (48, 48E)
  • the Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C)
  • the Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction (179D)

In addition, the prevailing wage provision will apply to:

  • the New Energy Efficient Home Credit (45L)
  • the Zero-Emission Nuclear Power Production Credit (45U)”

The private sector does not wish to invest in alternative or renewable energy projects. The tax credits are not enough of an incentive. The US Department of the Treasury mistakenly believed that the act would provide “taxpayers with a strong incentive to meet high labor standards as they build projects” and “expand well-paying union jobs and support proven pathways into the industry that allow workers to earn while they learn.”

Manufacturing is in fact not expanding. The regulations in place have made it difficult for existing factories to expand or bring on more workers.

Strong Jobs Report Does Not Mean Strong Economy


Posted originally on Apr 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Jobs

One thing that analysts fail to explain is that Americans have begun working multiple jobs since the COVID pandemic that wrecked the global economy. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in March, but there are millions of Americans holding multiple jobs who can still not keep up with the cost of living even with wages up 4.1% in the past year.

Around 5.3% of the US workforce held more than one job, on the books, in 2019 but that slowed during the pandemic when businesses were unable to open. In September 2022, 4.9% of American workers (7.7 million people) held more than one job (on the books) as the economy began to slowly recover but that trend did not stay in motion due to rampant inflation and the cost of living. By October 20235.2% of the US workforce (8.4 million people)  held more than one job.

Now Hiring

Women are more likely than men to work multiple jobs. And we wonder why there is a birth rate crisis. Around 6% of US women in the workforce had two or more jobs by October 2023 compared to 4.7% of men.

Now these are simply the figures for those working on the books. The Biden Administration killed the gig economy when Americans relied on it the most by imposing numerous regulations that forced companies to classify contractors as employees. Then we have states carelessly raising the minimum wage, eliminating the number of available jobs, and raising costs for businesses overall.

Only 62.7% of abled Americans are participating in the workforce. This does not include the 7.4+ illegal migrants who cannot obtain working permits but rely on government aid. Then they “revise” the jobs report every month, with January’s overwhelming report of 353,000 new jobs now down by 27,000, and February’s posting shedding 5,000. Then if you read between the lines, the number of part-time workers, who do not have benefits, rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, but this is drastically understated as many people work under the table or in odd jobs.

The jobs report is by no means an indication of a strong economy.