ECM & the Cycle Inversion?


The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that mean? It means that the USA may be moving into a serious high in 2020 against a backdrop of a decline for the world insofar as liquid assets (non-fixed). The China share market has just lost its status as king of the mountain in Asia as Japan has once again reclaimed that lofty position from a value perspective.

The ONLY markets, currency and economy moving against this global bearish trend into 2020 has been the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke out above the simple Downtrend Line, whereas we do not see this in Europe or Asia.

When we look at the array of world currencies, it is hard to mistake the fact that the dollar is rising. The ONLY other currency to benefit has been Canada. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows to North America. Canada has been to some extent benefited by its proximity to the United States and has offered some diversification for European and Asian capital outflows.

When we look at the Canadian share market index (TSE), we can see that the July 12th turning point produced the highest closing during July. By the time we reach the World Economic Conference in Orlando on November 16-17, 2018 (Friday & Saturday), we will be approaching the Pi turning point on November 22/23rd, 2018 the next week. Besides the US mid-term elections, we are facing a very critical people in Europe. November is lining up to be an important turning point in the currencies. This is shaping up to ensure that the Orlando WEC event will be a hot topic this year and we hope to strategically set the stage for the balance of the ECM wave from there onward into 2020.

Election Night: MAGA Republican Troy Balderson Holds Ohio CD-12, Schuette Wins Michigan Gov Primary…


An important election night finds MAGA Trump Republicans holding and advancing positions in Ohio (CD12), Michigan (Schuette), Missouri (Hawley) and possibly Kansas.

The most watched race was the special election in Ohio CD-12.  Democrats spent a great deal of money supporting Danny O’Conner; the race was close, but it appears Troy Balderson has won with the lift of President Trump’s recent campaign.

Justin From Canada Asks For Help in Saudi Dispute…


Apparently Justin from Canada, sans Princess Rainbow Sparkles, has asked the U.K. and United Arab Emirates to intervene after Saudi Arabia puts a ban on commerce, and cancels grain purchase contracts…

(Reuters) – Canada plans to seek help from the United Arab Emirates and Britain to defuse an escalating dispute with Saudi Arabia, sources said on Tuesday, but close ally the United States made clear it would not get involved.

The Saudi government on Sunday recalled its ambassador to Ottawa, barred Canada’s envoy from returning and placed a ban on new trade, denouncing Canada for urging the release of jailed rights activists. Riyadh accused Ottawa on Tuesday of interfering in its internal affairs.

One well placed source said the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – which stresses the importance of human rights – planned to reach out to the United Arab Emirates.

[…] The United States, traditionally one of Canada’s most important friends, stayed on the sidelines. U.S. President Donald Trump – who criticized Trudeau after a Group of Seven summit in June – has forged tighter ties with Riyadh.

“Both sides need to diplomatically resolve this together. We can’t do it for them; they need to resolve it together,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told a briefing.

[…]  The office of Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland did not respond to requests for comment.  (read more)

Federal Prosecutors Convict Rebellious Septuagenarians For Purchasing Ginseng at Wrong Time of Year…


Thankfully we don’t have to worry about those pesky diabetic septuagenarians running amok with bags of illegal Arkansas ginseng any longer.  Today a federal conviction hopes to stomp out the underground treatment of Alzheimers, heart disease, fatigue, erectile dysfunction, hepatitis C, high blood pressure and menopausal symptoms….

MISSOURI – […] The Springfield News-Leader reports 77-year-old Kermit Schofield and his wife, 73-year-old Sandy Schofield were sentenced Tuesday.

The couple farms and sells herbs in Theodosia, a town of about 250 people near the Missouri-Arkansas border.

Federal prosecutors say that between June 2013 and August 2015 the Schofields illegally bought more than 100 pounds of ginseng in Arkansas. Prosecutors say the couple bought the ginseng outside the permitted time frame for purchasing ginseng in Missouri, and they knew it was illegal transport ginseng out of Arkansas without a state certification. (more)

Trade Report: China May Have To Resume U.S. Soybean purchases Within Weeks…


As many have discussed, due to their volume requirements China cannot secure their supply chain for soybeans without purchasing U.S. soybean crops.   China can purchase soybeans from Brazil and Argentina; however, that only leads to Argentina increasing it’s soybean purchases from the U.S.  Amplifying this issue are current lower yields from South America in their soybean crops.

…“There is a risk that China will have to cut back its livestock production, implying higher prices on the domestic market.”…

(Reuters) – China may have to start buying U.S. soybeans again in coming weeks despite the trade war between the two countries as other regions cannot supply enough soybeans to meet China’s needs, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

In July, China imposed import tariffs on a list of U.S. goods, including soybeans, as part of the trade dispute with the United States. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and has been seeking alternative supplies, especially in South America, where supplies available for export are down.

“China has to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans,” Oil World said in its latest newsletter. “The South American supply shortage will make it necessary for China, in our opinion, to import 15 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in October 2018/March 2019, even if the current trade war is not resolved.”

Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans could re-start “in coming weeks,” Oil World added.

Soybeans, crushed to make cooking oil and the protein-rich animal feed ingredient soymeal, were the biggest U.S. agriculture export to China last year at a value of $12.3 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  (read more)

♦The 800lb Panda in the room is that China is arguably the least balanced economy in the modern world. Hence, China has to take extraordinary measures to secure their supply chain. This economic dependency is also why China has recently spent so much on military expansion etc., they must protect their vulnerable interests.

Everything important to the Chinese Economy surrounds their critical need to secure a strong global supply chain of raw material to import, and leveraged trade agreements for export.  China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but China’s economy is also narrow.

This is why China has now positioned their economic system as dependent on them being an economic bully. They must retain their supply chain: import raw materials – export finished goods, at all costs.

This inherent economic structure is a weakness China must continually address through policies toward other nations. Hence, “One-Belt / One-Road” is essentially their ‘bully plan’ to ensure their supply chain and long-term economic viability.

This economic structure, and the reality of China as a dependent economic model, also puts China at risk from the effects of global economic contraction. But more importantly it puts them at risk from President Trump’s strategic use of geopolitical economic leverage to weaken their economy.

When you plant your trees in another man’s orchard, don’t be surprised when you end up paying for your own apples!

German Automaker Daimler Halts Deal With Iran Following U.S. Sanctions…


While European countries criticized the move by Trump to exit the Iran deal, the challenge for their domestic businesses is to weigh the potential loss of American business against deals with Iran that are minuscule by comparison.

U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell has been meeting with numerous CEO’s within Germany to inform them:  “either do business with Iran or the U.S., but not both.”

(Bloomberg) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire to isolate the Iranian economy seems to be working.

Within hours of Washington unveiling its first round of sanctions, German carmaker Daimler AG froze a plan to make Mercedes Benz trucks in Iran. That’s even after the European Union tried to salvage the Iran nuclear deal by pledging to protect firms from Trump’s assault.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if more companies were to follow Daimler out of Iran,” said Frank Biller, a automobile analyst based Stuttgart, Germany for Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. “With the political situation right now, I’m sure a lot of companies are at least thinking about suspending their activities.”  (more)

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A Discussion With National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow: “I’m having so much fun with Trump”….


The Chairman of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, gives an extensive interview to C-SPAN discussing his life, his career and his role in the White House.

Those who have followed the granular details of the how President Trump put together his team -to carry out decades-long discussed policy- will find this interview interesting. Kudlow has evolved in the past year from a MAGAnomic supporter to a MAGAnomic advocate.

Understanding The Dollar Strength


 

It is fascinating to watch how the bias in people just ensures not just that a sucker is born every minute to replace the one that wises-up, but there are suckers who never learn from experience and cling to their ideas no matter how much it costs them. The U.S. dollar has been climbing against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index .DXY up is trading up about 2.84% for the year. It is true that the dollar has strengthened since late 2015 as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates against a background of steady economic growth, slowly rising inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since the 1960s. But the strength in the dollar is more than just interest rates. It is the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say – US – Europe – Asia.

The Fed has raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise rates a couple more times by year end which may attract more foreign capital into the U.S. dollar with monetary policy remaining loose to very insane in Europe and Japan. We have the ECM, which has destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops buying, we are looking at a major debt crisis in Europe as interest rates explode exponentially. However, their policy of austerity has really oppressed the Greek economy and now they have their eyes set on Italy which will more likely create a revolution before the Italian accept going the way of Greeks – quietly into the night.

In Japan, there to they have wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? The Bank of Japan has reduced debt purchases for a third time in June 2018, taking advantage of the recent stability in bond yields and the yen. At least Japan is reducing its purchases whereas the ECB talks a good game, but cannot actually do anything. The attempt to force austerity by the EU upon southern Europe is tearing the system apart.

 

 

The dollar bottomed in February 2018. It has yet to elect a Monthly Bullish Reversal. Trump has been unusually vocal about the dollar, unlike most Presidents, following more in the footsteps of Treasury officials. Trump has publicly been criticizing the dollar’s strength several times. He obviously thinks a lower dollar is better for trade. But the markets are going against Trump. You cannot “Make America Great Again” without also strengthening the dollar especially when we still have insanity in Europe economically and Japan still in never-never-land.

In a CNBC television interview, Trump said he was concerned about the potential impact of a stronger dollar on American exports. He also broke tradition by criticizing Federal Reserve policy on raising interest rates, saying it takes away from the United States’ “big competitive edge”. Trump has had no problem with deficit spending hoping it would reduce the dollar to support trade and therefore jobs. While investors and traders have been concerned about the spending, they have been forced to attribute some of the gains to the Trump administration’s tax cuts which are bringing capital home. On the other hand, they see the tax cuts as widening the fiscal deficit, and that they expect leads to borrowing more on the government’s part. Then Trump’s imposition of import tariffs against China, Europe, Mexico and Canada, they generally think will contribute to inflation. But they fail to grasp that Trump is using Tariffs to force a better trade deal.

So hang on to your hat. The strength behind the dollar CANNOT be analyzed simply by looking at the domestic situation. We are in a position of capital flight on a global scale. All these arguments add up to nothing when capital begins to flee from one economic crisis to another. Remember Herbert Hoover’s words from 1931. When we begin to see the first crack in Sovereign Debt, both in Emerging Markets and inside the EU, it will be Kattie-bar-the-door!

President Trump Reinstates Phase-1 of Iran Sanctions…


Today the White House ends the initial 90-day period for the JCPOA withdrawal, and reveals the structure of the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

White House: REIMPOSING TOUGH SANCTIONS: President Donald J. Trump’s Administration is taking action to reimpose sanctions lifted under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

♦President Trump made clear when he ended United States participation in the JCPOA that his Administration would be reimposing tough sanctions on the Iranian regime.

♦In connection with the withdrawal from the JCPOA, the Administration laid out two wind-down periods of 90 days and 180 days for business activities in or involving Iran.

♦Consistent with President Trump’s decision, the Administration will be reimposing specified sanctions after August 6, the final day of the 90-day wind-down period.

On August 7, sanctions will be reimposed on:

•The purchase or acquisition of United States bank notes by the Government of Iran.
•Iran’s trade in gold and other precious metals.
•Graphite, aluminum, steel, coal, and software used in industrial processes.
•Transactions related to the Iranian rial.
•Activities relating to Iran’s issuance of sovereign debt
•Iran’s automotive sector.

The remaining sanctions will be reimposed on November 5, including sanctions on:

•Iran’s port operators and energy, shipping, and shipbuilding sectors.
•Iran’s petroleum-related transactions.
•Transactions by foreign financial institutions with the Central Bank of Iran.

The Administration will also relist hundreds of individuals, entities, vessels, and aircraft that were previously included on sanctions lists.

♦ ENSURING FULL ENFORCEMENT: President Trump will continue to stand up to the Iranian regime’s aggression, and the United States will fully enforce the reimposed sanctions.

  • The Iranian regime has exploited the global financial system to fund its malign activities.
  • The regime has used this funding to support terrorism, promote ruthless regimes, destabilize the region, and abuse the human rights of its own people.
  • The Trump Administration intends to fully enforce the sanctions reimposed against Iran, and those who fail to wind down activities with Iran risk severe consequences.
  • Since the President announced his decision on May 8 to withdraw from the JCPOA, the Administration has sanctioned 38 Iran-related targets in six separate actions.

♦ PROTECTING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY: The JCPOA was defective at its core and failed to guarantee the safety of the American people.

  • President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal upheld his highest obligation: to protect the safety and security of the American people.
  • The Iranian regime only grew more aggressive under the cover of the JCPOA and was given access to more resources to pursue its malign activities.
  • The regime continues to threaten the United States and our allies, exploit the international financial system, and support terrorism and foreign proxies.
  • The Administration is working with allies to bring pressure on the Iranian regime to achieve an agreement that denies all paths to a nuclear weapon and addresses other malign activities.

Read the Statement from President Trump HERE

Read the full Text of the Executive Order HERE

What Comes After Trump Will Be a Major Political Confrontation that May Lead to Civil War


 

The man who took a pickaxe and destroyed Trump’s Star in Holywood’s Walk of Fame was booked on a felony vandalism charge. I have stated before, ALL revolutions come from the left. They somehow hate people who have more than they do and they use that hatred to justify killing and robbing them. The core of conservatives is really the opposite. They just want to be left alone and everyone should be entitled to pursue their own happiness. Then there is the extreme right who also turn to violence and this is what completes the circle of politics. If you go far to the left you end up violent and you move far to the right and you join with the left in violence.

The hatred from the left just keeps building. I fear our computer will be correct and we are indeed headed into a civil war and the next presidential election may be that spark. Now a  pair of fake Russian soldiers stood guard at the remains of President Trump’s Hollywood Walk of Fame star. The hatred against Trump is really amazing you would think he was out to write laws against everyone.

I really am concerned about what comes after Trump. The political establishment wants to take back control. They are against any outsider left or right. This may erupt into real violence in the streets for the next election.