When to Pull the Trigger


QUESTION: I am just a little guy who invests in mutual funds and a few stocks. Ever since I started reading your blog, I have felt a sense of comfort in knowing that eventually, everything will work out because all this has happened before. It is also nice not to feel like I am swinging blindly. Thank you for the peace of mind you have given me.
For a guy like me, is there a date that I should pull all my money out of the US stock market and invest in a mutual fund that is specific to China and the far east?

Or is it not that simple?

KB

ANSWER: Not yet. We have to first get through this readjustment through the Monetary Crisis Cycle. China will rise, but it is just not quite ready for prime time. Just stay away from bonds right now. Interest rates can soar faster than anyone can imagine. We see Italian rates rise from 0.3% to 2.5% in a single day. I have tried very hard to explain that sometimes it is the private sector in trouble, and at other times, the crisis is in government. You have the dollar soaring. So be mindful that the US stock market has not broken out in US dollars and the consolidation for the first half is not yet finished. Of course, if you are not US$ based, chances are you are now watching the US share market make new record highs.

The Rise in US Share Market in Foreign Currencies


 

COMMENT: I spoke this “pretend” analyst who use to be a goldbug and is now a cryptobug. Boy does he hate you. I really had to laugh for he said your computer is a fraud and your forecast on the euro was only correct because you organized it with central banks. I asked him who write more than 500 reports on every market around the world each and every day? He said you did with staff. I asked him, how many people would it take to do that? He had no answer.

I probably would have lost an equal amount in BitCoin buying it at the high based on his emails. Thank you for opening my eyes to see everything globally. It really has helped.

GHH

 

REPLY: I know. I use to get real hate mail from the goldbugs. Not it is the crypto people. Here is the S&P500 express in various currencies. You will note that the market is consolidating in US$ terms, but it is starting to breakout and make all time new highs in various currencies. This is what I mean that each and every one of us will act according to our own self-interest. That is Smith’s invisible hand.

I promised I would not leave anyone behind. Nevertheless, we do not do ANY advertising and prefer to keep the individual readership small. Our bread & butter is institutions. They, on the other hand, prefer no interviews with mainstream media and to shun advertising, It is a difficult road to following through the raindrops.

Eagle Hits Dragon With $50 Billion Interference Penalty…


Buried in a Wall Street Journal article outlining their shock and horror over President Trump following through with a Phase-I trade penalty of $50 billion, you find the following quote from Captain Obvious at Cornell University:

“The Trump administration is clearly signaling, ahead of Wilbur Ross’s trip to Beijing, that the gloves are off given China’s unwillingness to agree to a trade deficit reduction target or to make broader trade concessions,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University professor of international trade. In addition, the “hardline stance may partly reflect the perception that China played a part in nearly derailing the Trump-Kim summit.” (link)

Gee, ya think?

The White House announced today it will clarify by June 15 a final list of $50 billion in imports from China that would be subject to tariffs of 25%, with the duties implemented “shortly thereafter.”  Additionally, future investment restrictions aimed at preventing Chinese acquisition of American technology will be announced by June 30.

Statement from the White House:

YEARS OF UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES: China has consistently taken advantage of the American economy with practices that undermine fair and reciprocal trade.

For many years, China has pursued industrial policies and unfair trade practices—including dumping, discriminatory non-tariff barriers, forced technology transfer, over capacity, and industrial subsidies—that champion Chinese firms and make it impossible for many United States firms to compete on a level playing field.

  • China’s industrial policies, such as its “Made in China 2025” plan, harm companies in the United States and around the world.
  • China imposes much higher tariffs on United States exports than the United States imposes on China.
  • China’s average tariff rate is nearly three times higher than the average United States rate.
  • Certain products are even more imbalanced, for instance the United States charges a 2.5 percent tariff on Chinese cars, while China currently maintains a 25 percent tariff on cars from the United States.
  • China has banned imports of United States agricultural products such as poultry, cutting off America’s ranchers and farmers from a major market for their goods.
  • China has dumped and unfairly subsidized a range of goods for the United States market, undermining America’s domestic industry.

♦In 2018 alone, the Trump Administration has found dumping or unfair subsidies on 13 different products, including steel wheels, cold-drawn mechanical tubing, tool chests and cabinets, forged steel fittings, aluminum foil, rubber bands, cast iron soil pipe and fittings, and large diameter welded pipe.

♦In January 2018, the Trump Administration found that China’s overproduction of steel and aluminum, and the resulting impact on global markets, is a circumstance that threatens to impair America’s national security.

♦The United States has run a trade in goods deficit with China for years, including a $375 billion deficit in 2017 alone.

UNDERMINING AMERICAN INNOVATION AND JOBS: China has aggressively sought to obtain technology from American companies and undermine American innovation and creativity.

  • The cost of China’s intellectual property theft costs United States innovators billions of dollars a year, and China accounts for 87 percent of counterfeit goods seized coming into the United States.
  • United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) Section 301 investigation identified four of China’s aggressive technology policies that put 44 million American technology jobs at risk:

•Forced technology transfer;
•Requiring licensing at less than economic value;
•Chinese state-directed acquisition of sensitive United States technology for strategic purposes; and
•Outright cyber theft.

  • China uses foreign ownership restrictions, administrative review, and licensing processes to force or pressure technology transfers from American companies.
  • China requires foreign companies that access their New Energy Vehicles market to transfer core technologies and disclose development and manufacturing technology.
  • China imposes contractual restrictions on the licensing of intellectual property and technology by foreign firms into China, but does not put the same restrictions on contracts between two Chinese enterprises.
  • China directs and facilitates investments in and acquisitions of United States companies to generate large-scale technology transfer.
  • China conducts and supports cyber intrusions into United States computer networks to gain access to valuable business information so Chinese companies can copy products.

STANDING UP TO CHINA’S UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES: President Trump has taken long overdue action to finally address the source of the problem, China’s unfair trade practices that hurt America’s workers and our innovative industries.

  • In January 2018, the President announced his decision to provide safeguard relief to United States manufacturers injured by surging imports of washing machines and solar products.
  • This was the first use of Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs in 16 years.
  • These actions responded to injurious trade practices by China and other countries, including attempts to avoid legally imposed antidumping and countervailing duties.
  • Following the decision, Whirlpool announced 200 new jobs in Ohio.
  • USTR and the Department of Commerce are working together to defend the right of the United States to continue treating China as a non-market economy in antidumping investigations until China makes the reforms it agreed to when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO).
  • President Trump’s Administration has successfully litigated WTO disputes targeting unfair trade practices and upholding our right to enforce United States trade laws.
  • In February 2018, USTR won a WTO compliance challenge against China’s unfair antidumping and countervailing duties on United States poultry exports and China announced the termination of those duties.

PROTECTING AMERICAN INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY: President Trump has worked to defend America’s intellectual property and proprietary technology from theft and other threats.

In August 2017, the Administration initiated a Section 301 investigation into China’s practices related to forced technology transfer, unfair licensing, and intellectual property policies.

After USTR completed its Section 301 report in March 2018, the President directed the agencies to explore numerous actions to protect domestic technology and intellectual property.

Under President Trump’s leadership:

  • The United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods imported from China containing industrially significant technology, including those related to the “Made in China 2025” program. The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018.
  • USTR will continue WTO dispute settlement against China originally initiated in March to address China’s discriminatory technology licensing requirements.
  • The United States will implement specific investment restrictions and enhanced export controls for Chinese persons and entities related to the acquisition of industrially significant technology. The list of restrictions and controls will be announced by June 30, 2018.

WH LINK

“Oh dear”..

“Check!”

North Korea’s Top Party Official Kim Yong-chol Heads To China, Then To U.S….


According to Yonhap News North Korea’s vice chairman of the Central Committee, Kim Yong-chol, is traveling to Beijing China for an operational briefing -and likely instructions- prior to heading to the U.S. where he might possibly be scheduled for a meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

The travel plans highlight the influence strategy deployed by China and Chairman Xi Jinping ahead of the tenuously scheduled June 12 summit between the U.S. and North Korea in Singapore.  The U.S. negotiation team is currently in South Korea working on summit details amid discussions between all significant stakeholders.

Watch the U.S. -vs- China trade front closely.  U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on June 2nd to discuss current trade issues.  China is hoping to manipulate their North Korean proxies as trade leverage. Communist Chinese trade negotiators are notorious for their cunning manipulation.

BEIJING, May 29 (Yonhap) — A senior North Korean official arrived in Beijing on Tuesday apparently en route to the United States to hold preparatory talks over a possible summit between the leaders of the two countries.

The trip by Kim Yong-chol, a vice chairman of the Central Committee of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, came as Washington and Pyongyang are holding working-level talks on the summit agenda and issues related to security and protocol.

The North’s Air Koryo plane carrying the official touched down in Beijing at 10 a.m. (local time), sources said. He has also been found to have booked a ticket on an Air China flight set to depart for New York at 1 p.m. on Wednesday.

Kim was said to have originally reserved a flight set to leave for Washington at 1:25 p.m. on Tuesday, the sources said.

“I understand that Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol has arrived in Beijing, will hold talks with Chinese officials at the airport and leave for the U.S. tomorrow,” a source said, declining to be named.

Kim, a former military spy chief, is known to be conversant with denuclearization and security issues. He has been heavily criticized in the South for his alleged role in a series of North Korean provocations, including the 2010 torpedo attack that killed 46 South Korean sailors.

It was widely expected that Kim would travel to the U.S. to reciprocate recent visits by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The two may meet to put final touches on the preparations for the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, observers said. (read more)

A Global Systemic Collapse – Opportunity & Risk


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; FX Street named you forecaster of the year for your Swiss franc euro peg forecast that also nobody else saw coming. I remember you were named here in Canada as Economist of the Decade for your calls during the 1980s with the 1987 crash and the crash in Japan. I by no means want to be on the opposite side of Socrates. My question is this. You have said that 2018 is just the beginning. This is all coming unglued very rapidly. Is this the Monetary Crisis Cycle and how the world will be torn apart is just a few years?

EM, Vancouver

ANSWER: Thanks for that magazine article. Can’t believe you saved it that long. Yes, when I say we can see a monetary reset as soon as 2021, this is no joke. There are critical points in a number of markets that I will reveal in Singapore. These are the lines in the sand. Once we cross them, there is no going back. This is a global systemic collapse. I cannot emphasize how serious this is going to be.

As long as you understand what is coming and we can draw that line very clearly without personal OPINION, then you will be just fine. Those who constantly believe in fairytales, well that will be a different story. I am not trying to sell you any investment be it land, gold, cryptocurrencies, or stocks. This is about INDEPENDENT research computer driven by just the facts – no agendas.

This is NOT some new age of KNOWLEDGE or Artificial Intelligence ruling the world. Those are complete nonsense. We have to crash and burn before we every reach some new age of reform.

The Euro Crisis is Unfolding on Schedule


 

The Euro Crisis is emerging rapidly. The 2Yr BTP Italy debt has jumped 150bp and is now wider by 2.50%. The ECB has been intervening BECAUSE as we have warned, there is NO BID. Interest rates for Italian debt have almost doubled in a matter of days. Who in their right mind will buy government debt when there is such uncertainty? I have warned that interest rates in Europe can skyrocket beyond anyone’s imagination.

The Euro is now down to 115 zone where critical support now lies. The dollar bears are getting slaughtered as usual for they have had their head in the sand and cannot see anything come from outside the country.

The absolute ONLY way to SURVIVE is to maintain a GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE. Yes, we schedule WECs around the cycles to make sure they are more interesting. Singapore will be no different. Welcome to the Euro Crisis, the fall of the West, and the rise of Asia.

Attendees will be receiving a very special report on the Rise of China

Euro Crisis Unfolds as Politics in Italy Views they are Now an Occupied Country


 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; You do know that you have been the only analyst who has outlined how, why, and when the euro would go into crisis. You said 2018 would be the beginning. Well, it looks to be absolutely correct along with your political models.

Thank you for saving me a fortune

Cheers

JWP

REPLY: What you have to understand is that there are analysts who also saw this coming as well as many traders working in the banks of Europe. I was asked to do a short documentary of the crack of the Euro a few months back. I agreed. They could not find a SINGLE analyst in Europe willing to join me. Not that they disagreed, but for political reasons, they did not want to stand up and say the Eurozone dream was coming undone. No analysts at the top banks would dare come out and say what I have said and still hold a job. The ECM would have been on the phone and that analyst would be fired. Banks have to play the game and cannot rebel for if they do, the ECB will shut them off.

This is why we probably have MORE major Institutions who take our services than just about everyone else combined. They know we are INDEPENDENT and have no CONFLICT OF INTEREST. They need that critical view regardless if they agree or disagree. That is part of the course of being responsible. You must cover your ass as they say in this world. Major institutions cannot afford NOT to take our services if they hope to survive the years ahead. Only an INDEPENDENT worldview will survive the future. Personal OPINIONS will always fail because humans cannot track everything everywhere all the time. It is consistency that counts. Institutions do not follow he said she said nonsense.

 

 

Fundamentally, I have been warning that the separatist tide has been growing. The political view in Italy is a distinct point of view. My sources there have expressed it best that they see Italy has been invaded and it is now an occupied country under the Eurozone. They have been forced to take in refugees that are completely altering the culture of the country. To lose one’s culture and identity is by no means something to take so lightly as Brussels has done.

The bulk of analysts in America have been so bearish the dollar calling for the end of everything. They too have been utterly blind to the trend outside the United States. This is how and why OPINION is a very dangerous thing. Far too often, people prejudge things and refuse to accept that they just may be wrong. They cannot see the tidal wave of change no matter how tall it rises before it hits shore.

French Unions Protesting Economic Reforms in France as Always


 

 

In France, the Unions and opposition parties are rising up in protests denouncing a Macron-led overhaul of labor rules that would reduce worker protections and laws increasing police powers. They are alleging that Macron supports tax reform which favors France’s wealthiest and is working to tear down public services. They, of course, oppose any government plan making it harder for students to attend the public universities of their choice at government expense, more restrictive immigration laws, and the police methods the protesters consider “repressive.”

France has been the most socialistic country in Europe. Its laws have favored workers to the detriment of business. The result has simply been to lower economic growth and send its national debt higher. Macron realizes that France is headed into economic collapse. He is trying to modernize France and make it more competitive. Unions do not want to give up anything and are always demanding more.

It is not an easy task to try to bring reform in France. When uber showed up, the taxi drivers encircled Paris and barricaded the city blocking traffic and setting heaps of tires on fire until Uber was outlawed. Nobody ever looks at the other side. The consumer has a right to increase their living standard by choosing a cheaper service. These protests are all about maintaining uncompetitive advantages that lower the standard of living for the people as a whole and the economic growth of the nation.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Interview on U.S. Strategic Iran Policy…


Voice of America (VOA) Persian’s Setareh Derakhshesh interviews U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the Trump administration’s new Iran strategy. The interview aired on VOA Persian’s News Hour on May 25, 2018.

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The new U.S. approach toward Iran was outlined in a prior speech by Secretary Pompeo delivered on May 21st, 2018 {Video Available HERE} – A transcript of the Iran policy speech referenced within the interview is AVAILABLE HERE.

That Time When Donald Trump Revealed His ‘Super-Secret’ Plan To Deal With North Korea…


Two-and-a-half years ago Donald Trump, then a candidate, revealed his super secret strategy for dealing with North Korean nuclear weapons.  When asked “what would you do?”:

•Senator Ted Cruz: Blame Clinton, then load up South Korea and Japan with proactive nuclear weapons.
•Senator Marco Rubio: Blame Obama, then prepare for war via South Korea and Japan.
•Governor John Kasich: Tell Japan to strike the DPRK.
•Governor Jeb Bush: Launch a pre-emptive strike against Kim Jong-un, now.
•Businessman Donald Trump: Punch China in the nose.

Watch:

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Guess which approach worked?

“Complicated business folks… Complicated business”