DC Mayor Muriel Bowser Asks Residents to Begin Voluntary Rationing of Food at Grocery Stores


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 22, 2022 | sundance | 391 Comments

For those of you who have prepared it is wise to remember the advice that always accompanies the final stages of preparation.  Once you are prepared, shut up, zip it, run silent and run deep.

The reason is simple comrades, when the “voluntary rationing” phase concludes, those who have prepared are quickly cast as ‘hoarders” and targeted by those who created the desperation.  It has always been thus.

DC Mayor and COVID Compliance Minister, Muriel Bowser, asks residents in/around her region to enter a phase of voluntary rationing.  What comes after the voluntary phase is the part many have been studiously preparing to avoid.

In the bigger picture… I find it rather revealing that only when leftist policies are followed to their natural conclusion do you see officials in the leftist economic system they created, a system not coincidentally always based on the outcome of scarcity, asking people not to engage in economic activity.

Chasing socialism always creates an outcome where the expressed intent from government is NOT to buy stuff, rationing.  Socialism, or leftism in its modern form, always creates scarcity; it is the diametrically opposite outcome of a free capitalistic society.

Unreported 2.9%, 1.8% and 1.8% Absolute Risk Reductions of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in Ivermectin Study


Posted originally o TrilSite New by Dr-Ron-Brown on January 21, 20227 Comments

Unreported 2.9%, 1.8% and 1.8% Absolute Risk Reductions of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in Ivermectin Study

https://www.facebook.com/v2.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df3c850b416a0504%26domain%3Dtrialsitenews.com%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftrialsitenews.com%252Ff1e87af6f688a9c%26relation%3Dparent.parent&color_scheme=light&container_width=300&href=https%3A%2F%2Ftrialsitenews.com%2Funreported-2-9-1-8-and-1-8-absolute-risk-reductions-of-covid-19-infections-hospitalizations-and-deaths-in-ivermectin-study%2F&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&share=true&show_faces=true&size=small&width=300

Note that views expressed in this opinion article are the writer’s personal views and not necessarily those of TrialSite.

Dr. Ron Brown – Opinion Editorial

January 21, 2022

A study of ivermectin use in a Brazilian population, published on January 15, 2022, reports that the repurposed drug reduced COVID-19 infections by 44%, hospitalizations by 56%, and deaths by 68%: Ivermectin Prophylaxis Used for COVID-19: A Citywide, Prospective, Observational Study of 223,128 Subjects Using Propensity Score Matching. Here is a figure from the report summarizing the findings: “Ivermectin-prophylaxis.-Summary-of-the-findings”

The reported findings from ivermectin use are relative risk reductions (RRRs), calculated as follows below from the data in the figure (note an error in the figure: the 8.2% infection rate in non-ivermectin use should be 6.6%).

Events are infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Relative risks (RRs), called the rate risk ratio in the figure, are calculated by dividing an event rate of ivermectin use by the event rate of non-ivermectin use (the control). The RR decimal is then subtracted from 1 to give the RRR as a percentage.

Infection RRR

RR: ivermectin 3.7% / control 6.6% = 56%

1 – 0.56 = 44%

Hospitalization RRR

RR: ivermectin 1.45% / control 3.26% = 44%

1 – 0.44 = 56%

Mortality RRR

RR: ivermectin 0.82% / control 2.6% = 32%

1 – 0.32 = 68%

Calculations for the Unreported Absolute Risk Reductions (ARR)

The study’s unreported absolute risk reductions for COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths with ivermectin use are calculated by subtracting the event rate of ivermectin use from the event rate of non-ivermectin use (the control).

Infection ARR

control 6.6% – ivermectin 3.7% = 2.9%

Hospitalization ARR

control 3.26% – ivermectin 1.45% = 1.8%

Mortality ARR

control 2.6% – ivermectin 0.82% = 1.8%

Conclusions

Unsurprisingly, the unreported ARRs of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths from ivermectin use—2.9%, 1.8%, and 1.8%, respectively—are much lower than the respective reported results of 44%, 56%, and 68%.

Furthermore, the study’s appendices include a STROBE Checklist (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) which lists the following item:

“Main Results (c) If relevant, consider translating estimates of relative risk into absolute risk for a meaningful time period.”

For some unexplained reason, the study authors overruled this checklist item with the response: “NOT APPLICABLE.” Perhaps the authors can write to TrialSite and offer readers a helpful explanation of why relative risks weren’t translated to absolute risks to “strengthen” the report?

Until then, I guess it’s totally the public’s responsibility to determine whether a repurposed drug with an unreported 2.9% absolute risk reduction of COVID-19 infection is effective enough to warrant clinical use.

Woke M&Ms and Marketing Gimmicks


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Jan 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Have you ever looked at an M&M advertisement and felt underrepresented, or are you in good mental health? Mars Incorporated announced plans to redesign their M&M mascots to be more “inclusive.” These are colorful cartoon candies we are discussing. “M&M’S promises to use the power of fun to include everyone with a goal of increasing the sense of belonging for 10 million people around the world by 2025,” Mars Incorporated stated.

This is yet another example of woke marketing and pandering to the far-left who believes individuality is immoral. Mars Incorporated knows that this publicity stunt will have people talking about their candy, and in that sense it is effective. Yet, their idea for rebranding their M&M characters is so completely absurd and a sad reminder that we live in a clown world.

The sassy green M&M will swap her heels for a pair of sneakers, as being feminine is not woke unless you were born with a Y chromosome. The brown M&M, the only other female, has had her “sex appeal toned down” as well. Jane Hwang, M&M Global Vice President, has said that the orange M&M will work on his anxiety issues and learn to “embrace his true self, worries and all.” Is there something in the water at the Mars Inc. headquarters? I can only imagine the boardroom meetings over this topic.

Where is the white conservative M&M sitting in front of their computer for 12 hours with 50 tabs open? I want to feel seen (obvious sarcasm).

Woke marketing is a pathetic attempt to increase sales through division and fake empathy. There is true inclusivity and loving thy neighbor, and then there is pretending a piece of chocolate is a strong single mom (they/them) self-identifying as a non-binary pansexual whose child calls them by their first name.

Your Chances of Dying


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jan 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Your chances of dying from omicron are extremely low. Around 0.1% of people pass away from the seasonal flu each year. I found a well-sourced document that shows your chances of dying for other activities. You’re far more likely to die on your drive to obtain a COVID test than from the actual virus.

Your Chances of Dying:

The mortality rate for specific activities undertaken in the United States:

  • Mountaineering Mortality rate: 0.5988 (/100 participants)
  • Hang gliding Mortality rate 0.1786 (/100 participants)
  • Parachuting Mortality rate: 0.1754 (/100 participants)
  • Boxing Mortality rate: 0.0455 (/100 participants)
  • Mountain hiking Mortality rate: 0.0064 (/100 participants)
  • Scuba diving Mortality rate: 0.0029 (/100 participants)
  • American football Mortality rate: 0.0020 (/100 participants)
  • The Risk of Hiking and Mountain Climbing
  • Expert mountain climbers: Annual mortality risk of 1 in 167.
  • Recreational climbing – Annual mortality risk of 1 in 1,750.
  • Mountain hiking – Annual mortality risk of 1 in 15,700.

Annual mortality risk (AMR)

  • Grand Prix racing: 1 in 100
  • Motorbike racing: 1 in 1,000
  • Canoeing: 1 in 10,000
  • Soccer & rugby: 1 in 100,000
  • Running/jogging: 1 in 1 million
  • Swimming: 1 in 1 million

The Risks of Transportation

  • Risk of dying in a car accident: 1 in 6,700 (Harvard School of Public Health)
  • Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled: 1.14
  • Fatalities per 100,000 population: 11.01
  • Fatalities per 100,000 Licensed Drivers: 16.13
  • Motorcycles: Fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled: 21.45
  • (National Highway traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 2009))
  • S. general aviation fatalities: 447; flight hours: 20,900,000 (National Transportation safety board 2010).
  • S. general aviation: Fatal accidents per 100,000 Flight Hours 1.27 (National Transportation safety board 2010).
  • Airliner (Scheduled and nonscheduled Part 21) fatalities per million flight hours: 4.03
  • Commuter Airline (Scheduled Part 135) Fatalities per million flight hours: 10.74
  • Commuter plane (Nonscheduled Part 135 – Air taxi on demand) fatalities per million flight hours: 12.24
  • General aviation (Private Part 91) fatalities per million flight hours: 22.43

Miscellaneous

  • Dance parties: 1 in 100,000 chance of dying
  • Table games: 1 in 100 million chance of dying
  • Computer games: 1 in 100 million chance of dying

Ireland Lifting Nearly ALL COVID Restrictions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Ireland is lifting nearly all COVID restrictions while Austria, France, and Germany screw their people even more at the direction of the World Economic Forum. Alexander Georg Nicolas Schallenberg, the Chancellor of Austria, who is a lawyer, should have known better than to allow Austria to impose the harshest COVID restrictions in the world.

When we look at the Austrian share market we can see that here too it has not exceeded the 2007 high. The economic policies of Austria are nits and these COVID Restrictions put the country at risk of a very major economic depression.

Biden’s Ukrainian Press Conference Surrenders to Putin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When you listen to a politician, listen closely not to what he says, but what he is desperately trying not to say. Here Biden over Putin a free-pass to enter Ukraine. Yes, he promised sanctions. He did not say that American or NATO troops would respond. He also said that Ukraine would not enter NATO. They need deniability as to why they will not defend Ukraine with military force.

Emerging Markets & Political Crisis Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

China has asked the Fed to please not raise rates. This has confused many to wonder when China would be asking the Fed not to raise rates. The real reason is the crisis we have in emerging markets and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Emerging Markets are one of the main victims of tightening US monetary policy. Emerging Markets have splurged by issuing more than $3 trillion dollars in US dollar-denominated debt and that was going into 2019 -(private and public combined). The Federal Reserve’s post-pandemic policy to respond to inflation with higher rates is exposing the vulnerabilities in emerging markets with high private external debt, and that includes China.

In order to sell the debt to the West, it has been a standard practice for more than 100 years to issue debt in the currency in which you seek to raise capital. Before World War I, the British pound was the reserve currency of the world and Britain was the financial capital of the world. Hence, we find bonds from around the world, including public and private, issued in British pounds. Today, the emerging markets have issued debt in dollars. They have taken on the risk of both US interest rates as well as the value of the dollar.

So far, China has benefited whereby provinces and companies that issued debt in dollars have seen at least a 15% profit as the dollar has declined against the yuan thanks to the stupid COVID policies that have drastically harmed the global economy.

Of course, the Euro has been under tremendous selling pressure as they have embraced Schwab’s Great Reset and have been deliberately crushing their economy pushing for a Green New World Order decades before they have any replacement for fossil fuels.

The Fed’s position of raising interest rates to fight inflation is a classic Keynesian Textbook, but the problem is Keynesian Economics has utterly failed. Jenet Yellen, the latest to join the Schwab Marxist agenda, has come out and announced that the Fed will do its best to reduce inflation their COVID policies created, and they have little choice with Biden’s polls collapsing.  The public always blames or credits the president for the economic trends and this time the Democrats live in fear that they will be thrown out of office. The January 6th Investigation will desperately try to criminally charge Trump and they think this will save their majority. This is only fulfilling the Panic Cycle our computer projected for the 2022 elections and again in 2024.

So the Fed is not likely to lower rates to help emerging markets. It will be far worse if the dollar starts to rise after February. That will cause a lot of economic problems throughout the emerging markets.

Tucker Carlson Asks Why Does Washington DC Want a War with Russia Over Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 165 Comments

Ukraine is a hot mess and has been ever since the Obama administration stuck their fingers into the internal affairs of the country.  In recent days, the DC administrative state and their corporate stenographers in media have been promoting a position that the U.S. needs to go to war with Russia in defense of Ukraine.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson asks why.  Why does the DC beltway and the crew behind Joe Biden want to create a war with Russia over a nation state that really doesn’t impact U.S. interests?  WATCH:

United Nations and World Bank Predict Increased Global Starvation Due to Fertilizer and Farm Costs


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 170 Comments

It’s easy to ignore the United Nations and World Bank pontificators as Über-leftists and global climate change fanatics.  However, of value to us ordinary peeps, is a recognition that U.N and WB outlooks permeate the World Economic Forum and Davos groups.

The multinational corporations and quasi-governmental entities in/around the World Economic Forum (WEF) are the people who call themselves “elites” and shape global policy.  As a result, when the U.N. and Word Bank start talking about widespread global famine as a result of energy policy impacts to the farming industry, specifically natural gas costs and fertilizer resulting in lower crop yields, it is worth paying attention.

We have already discussed the U.S. impact from higher fertilizer costs HERE.   As a nation we are blessed and fortunate to be living on land that is naturally healthy and fertile enough to grow food in abundance.   However, if our crop yields drop our export ability diminishes.  The world relies on the U.S. as a food basket.  You might have recently heard about foreign countries buying up U.S. farmland? Well….

In this outline from the Wall Street Journal, they note those increased costs mean less crops in all continents especially the third world regions.  That can be catastrophic for nations that already have food insecurity issues.

(Via Wall Street Journal) Christina Ribeiro do Valle, who comes from a long line of coffee growers in Brazil, is this year paying three times what she paid last year for the fertilizer she needs. Coupled with a recent drought that hit her crop hard, it means Ms. do Valle, 75, will produce a fraction of her Ribeiro do Valle brand of coffee, some of which is exported.

There is also a shortage of fertilizer. “This year, you pay, then put your name on a waiting list, and the supplier delivers it when he has it,” she said.

[…] Farmers in the U.S. are also feeling the pinch, with some shifting their planting plans. But the impact is expected to be worse in developing countries where smallholders have limited access to bank loans and can’t pay up front for expensive fertilizer.

Fertilizer demand in sub-Saharan Africa could fall 30% in 2022, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a global nonprofit organization. That would translate to 30 million metric tons less food produced, which the center says is equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people.

“Lower fertilizer use will inevitably weigh on food production and quality, affecting food availability, rural incomes and the livelihoods of the poor,” said Josef Schmidhuber, deputy director of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s trade and markets division.

As the pandemic enters year three, more households are having to cut down on the quantity and quality of food they consume, the World Bank said in a note last month, noting that high fertilizer prices were adding to costs. Around 2.4 billion people lacked access to adequate food in 2020, up 320 million from the year before, it said. Inflation rose in about 80% of emerging-market economies last year, with roughly a third seeing double-digit food inflation, according to the World Bank.

Diammonium phosphate, or DAP, a commonly used phosphate fertilizer, cost $745 per metric ton in December—more than double its 2020 average price. December prices for Eastern European urea, a widely exported nitrogen fertilizer, were nearly four times the 2020 average.

[…] Tony Will, chief executive of CF Industries Holdings Inc., a leading nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer based in Deerfield, Ill., said he expected lower fertilization levels this year to result in reduced agricultural yields. The company has only reopened one of the two U.K. plants it closed in September, citing high natural-gas prices and low availability of truck drivers. Plants in North America, where gas prices are lower, are running at maximum capacity, Mr. Will said.

Industry experts say European production is likely to be constrained as long as natural-gas prices remain high there, with shortages in parts of the developing world amplified by trade restrictions in other major fertilizer exporters. (read more)

Leftism has consequences.  Chase the surfacing issue back to its origin, and you will find the climate change agenda at the heart of changes in energy policy.  The changes in energy policy, as noted above, have consequences like higher prices.  Those higher prices for natural gas, oil, fuel, etc mean higher prices for fertilizer… which leads to less food.

Chasing the climate change agenda actually kills people.  Then again, from the perspective of the climate change cult, less people are not a bad thing.

As we have shared…. “The absence of food will most certainly change things.

GO DEEP ]

On Track


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 159 Comments

What they envision (top) and where they are (bottom).

Right on track…

Prescient.