Tag Archives: Ukraine

Mar 21 2025

Why the Fed Cannot Reduce Rates to Offset Tariffs


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Interest Rates Percent

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related.

Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This cannot be offset by lowering interest rates, as rate cuts stimulate borrowing and investment rather than addressing price increases caused by trade barriers. In fact, lower interest rates can exacerbate the problem by weakening the currency, making imports even more expensive, further fueling inflation.

Historically, tariffs have led to stagflation—rising prices combined with economic stagnation—rather than the demand-driven inflation central banks typically target. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of the 1930s, for example, severely disrupted global trade and worsened the Great Depression. Similarly, Trump’s trade war with China during his first term did not lead to any economic boom but instead forced businesses to adjust supply chains, raising costs for consumers.

Lowering interest rates in this environment offsets capital flows, decreasing confidence and weakening the purchasing power of the currency. The result is a cycle in which consumers face higher costs while the central bank loses the little control it has to manage inflation. The idea that the Fed could actually control inflation is based on outdated Keynesian economics concepts that were drafted when the US had a balanced budget. Now, most demand comes from the government itself, the largest borrower and creator of debt. This is why Jerome Powell spoke out against Joe Biden for creating the largest spending package in US history and multiplying the public sector. The government will never pay off its debts, and the interest payments on that debt alone have been astronomical.

Relying on rate cuts to counter tariff inflation ignores the root cause of the issue. The real solution lies in reducing trade barriers and not relying on tariffs to increase the demand for domestically made goods.

Mar 21 2025

Transitory Tariff Inflation?


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Powell Jerome

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects inflation to be “transitory,” a word reminiscent of America’s situation three years ago when the Fed repeatedly urged the public to underplay inflation as it would improve. Conditions did not improve, as we later learned, and the Fed will have a hard time convincing the markets that this time is different.

“It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation, if it’s going to go away quickly, without action by us, if it’s transitory,” Powell said. “That can be the case in the case of tariff inflation. I think that would depend on the tariff inflation moving through fairly quickly and, critically, as well on inflation expectations being well anchored.”

Consumer spending is crucial to the US economy. Retail spending in February increased 0.2% after declining 1.2% in January, according to the Department of Commerce, but fell beneath predictions for a 0.6% monthly increase. Total sales from December 2024 to February 2025 rose 3.7% from the same period one year ago, but growth remains minimal.

People do not spend when confidence is low. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated a 10% decline in consumer sentiment this March compared to February, citing a “high level of uncertainty.”

The National Federation of Retailers stated that February sales had slowed as a direct result of tariff threats. “Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”

Retail is America’s largest employer in the public sector, adding $5.3 trillion to annual GDP. One in four Americans, 55 million people, are employed through this crucial sector.

Naturally, the cost of living is causing much upheaval as people spend more on less and save what they can. It would be ignorant to say that tariff disputes do not have a direct negative impact on the economy. Powell likely coined a new term, “tariff inflation,” which I expect we will hear more frequently.

Mar 21 2025

Europe’s Date with Destiny


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

IBEUUS Y Tech 3 19 25

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. Will you do a special report on Europe? I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

I am a great admirer of your courage and endurance.

Hans

History Repeat Copy

ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’s forecasts as we head into 2032 when even the euro has a Panic Cycle. I have done my best to try to defeat my own computer to no avail. Nobody will listen to me, and they certainly never listen to history, assuming this time is always different. That is just part of the cycle. Those of us who see the patterns are condemned to sit on the sidelines and watch everyone repeat history repeatedly.

Capital_Control to Contain Risk

The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year, and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital ASAP. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU.

1936 German counterfeit British 20 pound

Germany counterfeited the British pound during World War II to undermine their economy. However, with digital currencies, Russia has an EPM bomb. All they have to do is explode one over Europe, and you will fry the electric components and kill the digital euro altogether. This is how all governments work. They are entirely myopic, like climate change or COVID-19. In both cases, they never considered that this would drastically shrink the economy. Only afterward, behind the curtain, do I get the calls. Can you fix it?

Lagarde Christine imf

When she was at the IMF, Christine Lagarde threatened tax havens to turn over all the people with accounts there or remove them from the SWIFT system. She even did that to the Vatican. She was the one who started this insane policy that her buddy, Obama, tried on Russia in 2014, and SWIFT refused to comply. So, they replaced the head of SWIFT in 2019, and he removed Russia from SWIFT, which set BRICS in motion. They are always myopic and never consider the counter-move in chess.

Capital Controls

Now, Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital. This is about taxes all over again. She hates the rich, other than politicians, and is a pure socialist while prancing around as one of the best-dressed women in Europe in $10,000 designer attire.

Lagarde-10000 Euro outfit

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, could be charged with money laundering as she transported more than $10,000 worth of goods without declaring them. Lagarde appeared in New York City wearing French designs in a Chanel dress worth €3000, €6000 for her Hermès handbag, and at least €500 for her Christian Louboutin shoes, bringing the total to about €9500, not counting jewelry, of course.

Kerry Climate Czar

This is like Biden’s Climate C zar, John Kerry, flying around in his private jets while telling us to ride a bicycle or walk to work in our 15-minute cities. Then he tells coal miners to get a real job learning how to make solar panels.

EU Report 2025

I am working on a detailed report covering the individual countries and the break up of the EU down the pike.

Mar 21 2025

German Govt Warns Travelers Not to Break U.S Law During Trump Administration or They Might Lose Visa Access or Future Entry


Posted originally on CTH on March 20, 2025 | Sundance

The funny thing is that EU countries are viewing this statement from Germany as if it is a negative assertion against President Trump.

The German government, and newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is warning its citizens that if they travel to the United States they should be careful not to break the law.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warns travelers that violating U.S. law while President Trump is in office, might get them removed from the U.S. or lose their visa entry privilege.

BERLIN — The German government has sharpened its travel advice for the United States.

According to its website, Berlin’s Foreign Office now warns its citizens that tougher immigration enforcement under U.S. President Donald Trump could land travelers in detention or see them face deportation.

It updated the guidance after several German nationals were detained at U.S. entry points, some held for days before being sent back. Officials now explicitly warn that even minor infractions — such as overstaying a visa or misstating travel plans — could trigger immediate deportation or a ban on future entry. (read more)

This is a major story throughout the EU gaining widespread attention.  Yet, to be brutally honest I thought it was a spoof article at first.  Apparently, most Germans believed they could break the law in the USA without any consequence.

This feels like some kind of ‘winning’, but I’m not exactly sure how to define it. 😂

Mar 20 2025

Schumer Mocks “Greedy” Americans for Questioning Taxation


Posted originally on Mar 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Minority Leader of the US Senate Chuck Schumer admitted on national television what the government thinks of the people—your money belongs to them. “Their attitude is, ‘I made my money all by myself. How dare your government take my money from me?’” Schumer stated in a mocking tone.

“I don’t want to pay taxes. Or, I built my company with my bare hands. How dare your government tell me how I should treat my customers, the land and water that I own, or my employees?” Schumer, with an estimated net worth of $81 million, continued. “They hate government. Government’s a barrier to people, a barrier to stop them from doing things. They want to destroy it. We are not letting them do it, and we’re united. Okay.” This further emphasized his view that certain individuals see the government as an obstacle and wish to dismantle it.”

People hate the government due to career politicians like Schumer who believe they have the right to control the people through excessive taxation. Schumer and others who constantly push for tax increases genuinely believe that the people are stealing from the government. Forget that you pay taxes on everything you own, sell, and save—the government needs MORE to fund agendas that the people do not vote on.

DOGE has been highlighting how utterly irresponsible and reckless government spending has become. No one voted to fund transgender care in Bangladesh, for example, or the infinite funds sent to secure foreign borders. The Constitutional protection of no taxation without representation has been eliminated. It matters not how much the government collects from the people as it will NEVER be sufficient to cover their spending, let alone the national debt that is a ticking time bomb.

schumer TIME cover R

Then you have people like Chuck Schumer who have NEVER held a job outside of politics and could not be further removed from the valid concerns of the people he claims to represent. He has made his fortune through LOBBYING and CORRUPTION off the backs of those who actually WORK and contribute to our economy. These are the swamp creatures who repeatedly raise our taxes, year after year, and hypocritically mock us for desiring a better quality of life.

Direct taxation is what the Founding Fathers in the US forbid. Politicians are destroying the world economy and this issue is certainly not unique to America. The Common Reporting Standard (CRS) is an information standard for the automatic exchange of tax and financial information on a global level. It was put together by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) back in 2014. Its purpose was to hunt down tax evasion primarily for the European Union. They took the concept from the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which imposed liabilities on foreign institutions if they did not report what Americans were doing outside the country.

The globalist trend toward Marxism where “you will own nothing and be happy” is precisely why our computer believes we are in for a complete change in the structure of government. Beforehand, we will see governments attempt to collect MORE from the people through new and increased taxes. The left wishes to increase the public sector so that everyone is utterly dependent on the government for survival. CBDC will create a cashless society to ensure governments can track and collect money instantaneously, as the main premise behind CBDC is the belief that the people should be paying at least 35% more to our overlords.

Nations crumble when governments continually rob the people through taxation.

Mar 20 2025

Powell – The Fed- Inflation – Recession


Posted originally on Mar 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Powell Jerome

Jerome Powell kept rates unchanged as our computer was projecting. However, he did weigh in on the state of the US economy, pointing out that Donald Trump’s policies were one reason why inflation is turning back up. He also reduced the Fed’s 2025 growth projection, noting that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. The Fed is well aware of the Economic Confidence Model. Both Canada and the Fed started to lower rates when the ECM was turned down last May.

935 ECM 2020 2028

Powell said, “Inflation has started to move up,” adding that “there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year.” The confusion people have is that, as I have pointed out before, government employees are counted TWICE in GDP. First as total government spending and second as total personal income. So, firing government employees will have a large,r more exaggerated impact on GDP going forward.

US_Discount_Rate M Array 3 19 25

Investors have reacted negatively to Trump’s global trade war and the mounting retaliation from abroad. What they fail to grasp is that the main reason companies left the USA was over worldwide taxation. American companies were always at a disadvantage when compared to Europeans competing in the world market. The S&P 500 fell nearly 10% from mid-February because of the failure to understand the real trade impact of the high tariffs. Trump, meanwhile, has perhaps promoted recession fears, with the Republican saying the economy faces a “period of transition” and that his tariffs will eventually mean more US jobs.

Civil Work Force

Socialist academic economists do not look beyond our shores and say that Trump’s tariffs will be a significant loss. They compare this to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s, blaming them for the Great Depression because they are incapable of thinking about two variables simultaneously. The tariffs were primarily on agriculture because the Dust Bowl reduced crops, and Europe offered them cheaper. The economy was 41% employed in agriculture, and that is why unemployment soared to 25%. No legislation could have made it rain.

US_CPI Y Array 3 19 25

Powell admitted that recession odds had moved up but weren’t high. He disagreed with the University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp increase in long-term inflation expectations. We agree. Socrates is showing that volatility in inflation was to begin here in 2025 and rise stronger in 2026, but it will be the 2027-2028 period when it becomes critical that it is correlated with our war models.

Mar 20 2025

Gold – Geopolitical vs Inflation


Posted originally on Mar 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

20 gold Roll 1 R

COMMENT: Marty, I spoke to a friend at the __________ bank in NY, and he said on gold, listen to Armstrong. I found that interesting since he was well up there in the Bank’s food chain. He also said this is geopolitical, not inflation.

Kevin

ANSWER: Well, as I have said, gold’s not stopping when it is geopolitical. We gave our price and timing targets. Forget the BS about inflation. Gold is rising for the safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions increase. Banks that do follow us know that we are bullish on bullion’s safe-haven status as anxiety escalates about the global economy. The fact that the Federal Reserve is poised to keep borrowing costs steady realizes that Keynesian Economics is dead. The rise in interest rates no longer stops inflation because government expenditures rise, and politicians will NEVER reduce spending because the Fed raises rates.

Mar 18 2025

“The Irish Were Forced At Gunpoint To Join The EU” Walsh On McGregor’s White House Visit


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Mar 17 2025, at 5:00 pm EST

Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Mar 17 2025, at 4:00 pm EST

Mar 18 2025

Macron Urges US Boycott – France Wants Statue of Liberty Back


Posted originally on Mar 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Macrone 12

French President Emanual Macron is encouraging the boycott of US-made products. Although he is speaking to EU leaders about US-made defense products, Macron is clearly in favor of the growing calls around the EU to boycott all American-made goods. “My intention is to go and convince European states that have become accustomed to buying American,” he said on Saturday after declaring that he would visit other European leaders to urge them to discontinue purchases of US defense equipment.

“Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale. That’s the way to increase the rate of production,” the president said. Macron wants to send his troops to Ukraine’s frontline immediately and has become outraged with the US for electing a president who supports peace. “This [sending troops] would mean a partial invasion of Ukraine and a freeze on the conflict, without offering any security or guarantees for the future,” Macron said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also stated that new defense loans should go to European manufacturers and has proposed a €150 billion ($163 billion) loan for member states.

This goes far beyond defense spending as European leaders are outraged by the United States backing away from the war, the Paris Accord climate agreement, the World Health Organization, and every other globalist policy that was ruining the nation.

French MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, of the Socialists and Democrats group recently demanded that the US return the Statue of Liberty. “We’re going to tell the Americans who have chosen to align themselves with tyrants, who have dismissed researchers advocating for scientific freedom: ‘Return the Statue of Liberty to us.’ We bestowed it upon you as a present, yet it seems you hold it in contempt. Therefore, it would be better suited here at home.”

The European Union has a common enemy—Donald Trump—who they will blame for all of their woes. “Look, let’s be honest, the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States,” Donald Trump once said. Macron has had it out for Trump since his first presidency. He would like to transform France into the EU’s primary defense system with its nuclear capabilities now that the US is no longer leading this proxy war.

Perhaps Macron would reconsider his position if Trump agreed to extradite his number one American foe—Candace Owens.

Mar 17 2025

BIG GOVERNMENT 👏 BIG SPENDING 👏


Published originally on Rumble By Turing Point USA on Mar 16, 2025 at 3:00 pm EST