Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jan 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Your target for this week concerning Russia might be hitting Kazakhstan. The protesters began shooting the military and they set the President’s home on fire. Could this be the January 6th target?
ANSWER: The protests there are over inflation with the drastic price rise in fuel. I fund it interesting that Russia is claiming the US is behind that uprising. That may be providing justification for confrontation in Ukraine. We clearly have two primary incentives for civil unrest in Kazakhstan (1) mandatory vaccines, and (2) escalating fuel costs that even deprive people of heat in winter. There have been explosions at the public buildings surrounded by protesters.
Meanwhile, on the border with Ukraine, there are at least 175,000 troops on the border and Putin has moved in the heavy equipment that would otherwise take time to move in. Eastern Ukraine is ethnically Russian, not Ukrainian. For Putin to invade the East, he would have much more support than what the media would report. Meanwhile, Ukraine is following the West Covide restrictions which are not popular. An official document confirming that they have been vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine is required to travel.
With respect to Ukraine, on March 1st, 2014 (2014.164), the Russian government approved the invasion of Ukraine. That came on the Cycle of War Model which has been rather consistent. However, Russia then came to the aid of Syria precisely on the date of the Economic Confidence Model – 2015.75.
In addition, the ECM plotted from the Cuban Missile Crisis also targeted 2014.39 as the beginning of a new period of direct confrontation. That too pointed to 2014 and the period for the shift in geopolitical trend.
That was met with Obama imposing sanctions on Russia which was absurd. The idea that putting on sanctions will force the people to overthrow their government has never worked because the people know the enemy is not their own government but external. That boosted Putin’s polls.
There are two dates in 2022 where a military confrontation is likely, from January 6, 2022, which is the Ukrainian ECM, and then there is October 5/6, 2022 which is 8.6 years from the 2014 turning point on the War Cycle and the Cuban Missile Model. In addition, there is the ECM turning point of March 14th, 2022. Of course, the peak of the previous wave was 2015.75 and that did mark the day Russia came into Syria.
When we look back at the first wave out of the start of this current 51.6-year cycle 1985.65, the first turning point was 1987.8 which produced the price low in the 1987 Crash to the day. But the peak of that wave was 1989.95 which marked the fall of Communism. This was the equivalent of the 2024 turning point. That was followed by the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union.
From a strategy perspective, if I were Putin I would like up with China to do a coordinated attack. If China moves against Taiwan and Russia moved against Ukraine, there is no way the West could mount any credible defense on two fronts. China has shut down all independent press now in Hong Kong. However, unreported is the capital controls. I have reports from Hong Kong that overnight, capital controls were implemented. Hong Kong residents can not send more than $50,000 annually out of the country. Clearly, our computer is looking very concerned with respect to even Japan and South Korea as there appears to be a mad rush to Singapore. There is even a separatist movement in Thailand over religion where the Muslims want to join Malyasia.
Something is in the wind. Perhaps January 6th may be just the point of a decision for the world markets do not seem to like what is offered after the 1st quarter here in 2022.