Exactly This Is What You Need to Look For

Posted originally on the Conservative Tree House on January 14, 2022 | Sundance | 797 Comments

(h/t No9 CoalThis is specifically the #1 precursor, for all the reasons previously mentioned.

Do not be alarmed; be prudent.

What are you seeing in your area?

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

Initial food instability signs in the supply chain.  Things to look for: 

(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).

1.a And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivatives of, or normally include, potatoes.

(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey/ham in the supermarket (last lines of protein).

(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.

(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings (sports drinks).

(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.

(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)

(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.

(8) Absence of large container products

(9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)

(10) Big brand shortage.

(11) Shortage of wet pet foods

(12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc)

(13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries.

These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain.  Once these issues are consistently visible, we will likely continue toward food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.

The reason I list the shortage of potatoes as the #1 precursor is because every food outlet sells a potato in some form. Every supermarket and every single restaurant (fancy, sit down or fast food) sells some form of potato. Potatoes are demanded by every single food outlet; therefore, a shortage of potatoes is the first noticeable issue.

Understanding the Background

Understanding what we SEE

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