Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Dec 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I want to thank you for Socrates. It picked the turn in the real estate in January amazingly. Do you see the high-end and regional divergences continuing?
ANSWER: Yes. The Directional Change for 2021 was spot on. Our index began declining in January 2022 anticipating the first rate hike on March 17, 2022, by a quarter point. We would expect lower prices into 2023 and this should be the typical 2-year reaction low. It appears that post-2023, we would begin to see the shift where private assets will start to trade at a premium to the public assets of the government. The spread between government and private will decline as was the case during the Great Depression as countries began to default on their debt.