Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 29, 2021 | Sundance | 151 Comments
Earlier today, Joe Biden met with a roundtable group of retail executives and CEO’s. The topics of the discussion were supply chain issues and current impacts to businesses that are causing rapid inflation.
At the conclusion of the meeting there was supposed to be a press conference where Biden was going to outline what his administration is doing to combat the ever-increasing problem of inflation. However, moments before the public remarks were scheduled to begin, the White House cancelled them. Instead, the people managing Joe Biden sent out the following tweet:
According to the White House messaging, everything is wonderful – there is no cause for concern, the supply chain crisis has been handled, shortages are no longer present, shelves are full, the clouds have parted and Santa is enjoying his time preparing for Christmas by watching unicorns play with the reindeer. Baghdad Bob would be proud.
If the narrative is true, if there is so much good news to share, then why cancel the remarks and press conference about inflation?
One likely scenario is the retail CEO’s told the White House about: (1) upcoming additional price increases due to energy policy; and (2) the latest news from China where the shipment of goods is going to go from bad (slow) to much worse (a virtual halt):
(CNBC) – […] Helen Zhu, managing director at Hong Kong-based investment firm Nan Fung Trinity echoed similar sentiments about China’s response.
“If omicron turns out to be a major threat, I think China will certainly continue to lengthen the period of staying isolated,” she said on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday. […] China’s ultra-strict zero-Covid strategy involves mass lockdowns — even if just one or a handful of cases are detected. It also includes extensive testing, heavily controlled or closed borders, as well as robust contact tracing systems and quarantine mandates.
The Asian giant has also implemented strict checks at its ports, including monitoring ships and cargo, to prevent cases from slipping into the country. (read more)
Beijing is cunning. They know Biden is weak politically and personally. Everything they can do to increase the impact of inflation weakens the U.S. economy, and China can do an awful lot on the supply side to create even more U.S. inflation.
Biden’s globalist policies in general make the U.S. Main Street economy very vulnerable; however, Biden’s energy policies specifically make that vulnerability exponentially worse.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 29, 2021 | Sundance | 190 Comments
JP Morgan is emphasizing that U.S. energy policy is likely to end up with $150-$200 per barrel oil costs in next year ($10/gal gasoline). [LINK] Whether that dire prediction comes true is anyone’s guess. However, consensus review makes nearing $100/barrel costs by the end of this year just as unnerving. ($6/gal gasoline). That outcome is the centerpiece for why Biden needs the Omicron variant to impact the demand side urgently.
New York – […] “We believe the evolution of coal prices might reflect supply, demand, cost of capital and energy transitioning issues for all fossil fuels, and it would certainly be possible that oil prices will follow the same pattern (inflation adjusted for oil, that would be in a $150-200/bbl range),” wrote a team of JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic. (read more)
This analysis essentially aligns with CTH outlooks and complements what Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, was saying yesterday [LINK] The Biden energy policy is specifically to blame for the current price increases across the entire energy sector.
All of Biden energy policy, and all of Biden spending around the Build Back Better agenda, is designed to take us from where we are now into some distant place where fossil fuels are not the energy mechanism; that’s the Green New Deal component of this. However, there is no policy for their transition – they stopped all current energy policy around oil and coal.
Biden halted pipelines, cancelled oil and gas leases, blocked expanded refinery capacity and regulated the entire U.S. oil industry into a place of diminished capacity. That is why energy prices have, as Obama promised, “necessarily skyrocketed.” And, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Depending on how cold it is this winter, you can expect natural gas and home heating oil to double in the next few months.
The near horizon looks pretty clear. Gasoline will keep rising fast and will cost $6 to $7/gal before next spring. There is no way under current Joe Biden policy to avoid this, unless he was to completely abandon his energy policy; that’s not likely. The climate change ideologues, academics and far-left communists behind the Biden policy are not likely to see the catastrophic economic damage as a bad thing, instead they will likely say it’s the new normal.
With that level of supply side economic chaos seemingly unavoidable, the only way for Biden to try and mitigate political damage is an attempt to halt the demand side. That’s why the administration needs Omicron.
It is more important for our government to use Omicron than all other governments because we are the spending and ideological center. That is why we are seeing a much bigger emphasis upon the fear of Omicron by our government; and that is why the descending levels of variant emphasis/fear fall in line depending on how closely other nations are aligned as allies.
Meanwhile… China, Iran and Russia (adversaries on an ideological level) know what is happening, and to the extent they can drive U.S. inflation even higher, they will. Our adversaries know how to use Biden’s policy to make massive inflation hurt the U.S. disproportionately. This is why OPEC is giving Biden the middle finger on his ‘request’ to increase oil production, and this is why China is now triggering shipping quarantines. (more)
Again, as repeated previously, our window to prepare for a massive jump in inflation is slowly closing. We are down to around 60 days, and then things will get really ugly. The people behind Joe Biden know this. Omicron is a tool they are attempting to use to moderate the speed of impact within the inflation window.
WASHINGTON – […] The main driver behind oil prices is supply and demand. And while the Omicron COVID-19 variant put a dent into oil prices on Friday, with investors fearing that potential country lockdowns would reduce travel and therefore lower demand for oil, JPMorgan viewed that price move as an overreaction.
“We believe the market may overestimate the impacts of the recent emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 on oil prices during the US holiday period,” JPMorgan said in a Monday note, inferring that there will be little to no slowdown in holiday travels even as the Omicron variant spreads.
[…] With demand for oil likely to remain steady, supply will remain the key driver behind oil prices for years to come. And with OPEC+ “being firmly in the driver’s seat for oil prices,” JPMorgan thinks Brent will hit $120/bl in 2022, and could even overshoot to $150/bl in 2023, representing potential upside of as much as 100% from current levels. (read more)
I have a question I was hoping you would comment on. I have been trying to wrap my head around the hows (not the whys) of the absurd consequences of this plandemic. What it reminds me of is the fight between the Federalists and the Anti-Federalists during the ratification process of the Constitution. I was taught the Bill of Rights bridged the gap between the issues back then and obviously satisfied their differences since the ratification went through.
Today, it seems as if there is no Bill of Rights and no possible bridge to balance political differences. There are tyrannical federal policies (under the guise of public health/national security) and the lawsuits from state AGs, governors and private organizations to prevent these policies. This is the obvious recourse. But it seems this is not enough and more importantly this recourse will not prevent the same thing from happening again in the future.
So my question is what recourse did the Anti-Federalists have (after the Bill of Rights were added to the Constitution) to address their worst fears? Elections? Overthrowing the government?
Are the Bill of Rights being violated just during this cycle of history? Or is there really no other recourse besides arming ourselves if the police decide not to support the people?
JC
ANSWER: The recourse of the anti-Federalists was separation which led to the American Civil War. What you are saying is only partly true. They voted on the Constitution without the Bill of Rights. They got it through only on a majority vote of 39 out of 70 attendants. To the surprise of most, the United States was wrongfully created and the Federalists won at first, but it was the opposite party of Jefferson that eventually took down the Federalist Party.
It was Alexander Hamilton who led the charge to ratify the Constitution. He solicited John Jay and James Madison, and together they would create a series of 85 articles, published in the New York newspapers between October 27, 1787, and August 16, 1788, which became known as the Federalist Papers. It was Hamilton who chose the title of The Federalist, which was at that moment a controversial act of political aggression since it was the anti-Constitutionalists were actually for federalism insofar as it was a union. By entitling this article series The Federalist, Hamilton would take the high ground by asserting that the Constitution represented a better version of federalism than the Articles of Confederation.
Once federalism took hold, it quickly became self-evident that the people overthrew a king for ruthless bureaucrats. The Whiskey Rebellion was a tax protest in the United States beginning in 1791, during the presidency of George Washington. Farmers who used their leftover grain and corn in the form of whiskey as a medium of exchange were forced to pay a new tax. Yes – it was a 1791 version of Bitcoin. Many participants were Revolutionary War veterans, who argued that they were fighting for the very same principles of the American Revolution – no taxation without local representation. Of course, the new Federal government maintained the taxes were the legal authority of the taxing powers of Congress that they put in the Constitution – not the people.
It was in July 1794 this first confrontation between those who really had not consented to this federalism erupted into violence with more than 500 armed men attacking the fortified home of tax inspector General John Neville. President Washington responded personally with men he then called “rebels” to justify their massacre. Once the state attaches the label “criminal” it then justifies violence against them regardless of the issue in question.
Washington gathered an army of 13,000 militia provided by the governors of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, and set out to wage war against the American people, most of whom had fought for American Independence. Washington rode at the head of an army personally. The rebels were way outnumbered and it became clear, pay your taxes or you will be dead. The rebels went home before the arrival of the army, and there was no confrontation. Nonetheless, it was at that moment that the evil of the federalist was exposed once and for all.
The union from that moment on was NEVER 100%. As I said, the ratification was 39 out of 70 votes and if human nature is what it is, there were probably votes that were bought with gold. It was this union by force that led to the American Revolution. The slavery issue was simply that it was the labor force in those days. Today they are outlawing fossil fuels which is already altering the course of the economy. Putting the human question of slavery aside and looking at this from an economic perspective, the North was telling the South they had to lockdown their economy and effectively terminate its existence. Naturally, with time, many stayed and were paid wages instead of just free room and board as was the case of serfdom. A serf could not be sold except with the farm whereas a slave could be sold individually.
In modern terms, if you outlaw the means to earn a living over whatever issue, they will rise up against the source of that decree. Hence, history will repeat because human nature remains the same. Consequently, the ONLY solution will be separation for the tyranny of the majority will also result in civil war.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 28, 2021 | Sundance | 126 Comments
FULL Analysis Below Video:
Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, is one of the few financial pundits who understood President Trump’s purposeful economic agenda inside the America First policy {Go Deep and Go Deep}. However, El-Erian also has to maintain his Wall Street credibility and, like most financial pundits, has to pretend not to know things when the emperor’s new clothes -Biden economics- are being discussed.
El-Erian uses the lingo of the club as he walks carefully in the shadow of his Wall Street allies, and he has to avoid the 800lb gorilla in the room and ignore there are other newly surfacing mechanisms available to the government in their approach to inflation. In this interview El-Erian does emphasize that inflation is not transitory, it is only going to get worse as long as the Federal Reserve keeps printing money to keep up with the massive and ongoing Democrat spending programs.
When El-Erian says the Fed needs to take their foot off the accelerator, he’s talking about how the Fed policy right now is purchasing debt (Quantative Easing) and printing money to keep up with legislative spending programs. He knows the Biden administration will not stop this approach, they are committed to the Build Back Better program, and as a consequence El-Erian knows inflation will continue in direct proportion to that ‘demand side‘ activity. But he cannot call it out directly – he can only say inflation will continue.
All of the Wall Street pundits know the Fed cannot hit the brakes (raise interest rates and stop purchasing debt) or else this entire manipulated economy (even on a global scale) will collapse; as El-Erian says “plunge into a recession.” It is a tenuous house of cards the current Wall Street crew is betting to remain in place due to the ideological politics (Green New Deal, Build Back Better, etc ).
In my opinion, the executive suites of Wall Street also know the new COVID variant Omicron is an attempt by the global market manipulators to put an tenuous emergency brake on the demand side in an effort to slow inflation and get people to drop pitchforks.
None of the financial pundits will admit the true intent of the narrative behind the Omicron variant.
We can debate the origin and ideological intent of the COVID virus, vis-a-vis controlling populations via passports etc; however, it is clear at this point that COVID is being exploited as a new tool in the global economic control toolbox. If money -global economic control- was not the motive behind how SARS-CoV-2 is being used, we could not predict the timing, methods and approaches of government to each COVID narrative and evolving variant.
Globally, the various governments and central banks have been pumping out massive amounts of money; spending into oblivion and then buying back their own debt. Currencies around the world are being devalued and this is the root of inflation. The U.S. has spent and pumped more than most, because we benefit from our currency being attached to the global trade system.
Almost all global trade is made in dollars, so our currency is propped up globally. This artificially inflated value allows the U.S. congress to deficit spend like crazy, and the Fed to purchase the debt via bond sales.
This one-sided benefit is why OBL targeted the World Trade Center. This artificial system is also why Biden can claim the U.S. GDP is the only economy growing during the pandemic.
The U.S. dollar is essentially being subsidized by global markets. However, the downside to all of this dollar printing means our rate of inflation (currency devaluation) is higher than other nations. The world is experiencing inflation from their internal monetary policy, but our inflation is higher than average. As a consequence, the people in control of various governments need the tool of Omicron, but our government needs it more than average.
The elites inside the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Economic Forum (WEF) are using Omicron as a short term tool to control inflation by trying to use it to control demand. The politicians who receive their instructions from the entities in control of these institutions are all following the program.
It is more important for our government to use Omicron than all other governments because we are the spending center. That is why we are seeing a much bigger emphasis upon it by our government; and that is why the descending levels of variant emphasis all fall in line depending on how closely they are aligned as allies.
♦ When it comes to COVID panic – Canada, the U.K. and Australia are globally akin to New York, New Jersey and California domestically.
♦ What Florida is to COVID panic inside the U.S. – Japan and India are to COVID panic globally.
Panic responses from spending allies are being emphasized. Non-panic responses from lesser spending friends are being ignored.
That is exactly what we are seeing. The vaccines are a shiny thing.
On a geopolitical level – China, Iran and Russia (adversaries on an ideological level) know what is happening, and to the extent they can drive inflation even higher, they will because they know these massive increases in costs hurt the U.S. disproportionately. This is why OPEC is giving Biden the middle finger on his ‘request’ to increase oil production, and that is why China is now triggering shipping quarantines.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) announced that we should expect consumer prices to rise 1.5% on average over the next year due to the global shipping crisis. Inflation, fuel increases, and labor shortages are among the many factors that have caused shipping costs to spike. “UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023,” the UN reported last week.
This will impact consumers throughout the world. The US could see a rise of 1.2%, according to the UN, while China may see a 1.4% increase. Less developed countries could see costs skyrocket by 7.5%. According to CNBC, as of late October, over 600 shipping vessels were parked outside of ports worldwide as they are unable to offload. The UNCTAD expects prices on electronics to spike 11.4%, furniture and textiles by 10.2%, rubber and plastic by 9.4%, and basic electrical equipment by 7.5%. Even pharmaceutical products are expected to increase by 7.5%. There are no signs of this crisis improving anytime soon.
Expect to pay at least 14% more for this year’s Thanksgiving festivities, according to the American Farm Bureau. The bureau estimates that a feast for ten will cost $53.31 this year, and I would personally like to know what grocery store has such low prices; the estimate seems drastically low. The US Department of Agriculture noted that wholesale prices of 8-16 lb frozen turkeys are up 21% from November 2020. Pumpkin prices have risen 5% due to droughts in California and heavy rains leading to fungal infestations in Illinois. Green beans, a typically cheap staple, advanced 4% YoY, while cranberry sauce prices increased 2.5%. Milk, eggs, potatoes, and many other Thanksgiving staples have all increased in price. Butterball President and CEO Jay Jandrain said that turkey prices will remain elevated into 2022 due to increased feed, labor, and transportation costs. However, US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said he is confident Americans will still foot the higher bill to maintain the annual tradition.
It is a depressing reality, but around 73% of Americans will die with debt, according to a 2016 poll by Credit.com. The average amount of outstanding debt at the time of the report was an alarming $61,554.00 per person. Around 68% of those studied had credit card debt, 37% had mortgage debt, and 6% died with student loans. US household debt has spiked significantly since this survey was taken, and at least three in four Americans will die without the ability to pass on their lifelong earnings to their kin. Survivors likely will not need to pay off the debt as creditors will confiscate any available assets.
Let’s not forget that dying in the land of the free is anything but free due to death and estate taxes. Americans feel more optimistic about the situation than they should — only 30% of Americans polled during a 2017 survey believe they will die with outstanding debt. Credit card debt was once an indication that people were living well beyond their means, but with the accelerated cost of basic living necessities, the gauge is less plausible. This is one of the many reasons why financial literacy is absolutely crucial to maintain financial independence throughout life. It is possible to rise above debt, but most do not. As inflation continues to wreck every sector, it is of the utmost importance that people budget and allocate funds appropriately.
However, inflation will also reduce the out-of-pocket revalue of previous debt. This survey appears to be based on the presumption that everything remains equal. The greater risk will be the hike in state and local taxes, in additional to federal.
Ever since 1927, when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in a failed attempt to help Europe, which still ended up defaulting in 1931, Keynesian economics succeeded in brainwashing the analysis of how people look at the central banks. Where the 1927 G4 attempt to lower rates in the US was intended to deflect capital back to Europe, smart capital began to smell a rat, and they were correct. The capital inflows to the United States intensified and aided in creating the 1929 bubble high just as the 1989 Japanese bubble aided by capital inflows.
Then there was the G5 in 1985 that stupidly tried to lower the value of the dollar to reduce the trade deficit. They were clueless that at the same time, that would devalue US assets by 40%, which resulted in the 1987 Crash. You cannot lower the value of the dollar to sell more goods without also lowering the value of everything in your country. They don’t teach that in economics class because the government is supposed to be all-powerful.
Now people claim the entire rally is because the Fed has been engaging in QE since 2008. They claim the Fed has inflated the assets and the entire movement they attribute to the Fed’s actions. This is no different than the commands from Fauci to wear masks when at the beginning he stated that masks do nothing. There are people who wear a mask when driving alone in a car because they are incapable of independent thought. This is the same problem – as Stanley Milgrim called it, blind Obedience to Authority.
Post-Great Depression, the analysis became MARXIST. Oh, the Fed will raise rates because they do not want us to buy assets so the stock market should drop. But the Fed raised rates all the way into the rally until COVID. That did not prevent the rally. Yet analysts continue this brainwashed analysis that raising rates is bearish for the market.
Now they claim that, oh, it’s QE. They never look at the system as a whole, which includes international capital flows. The Fed failed to produce inflation while engaging in QE between 2008 into 2019. They ignore that, just as the global warming crowd ignores everything before 1850. If the Fed issued $1 trillion and buys in US Treasuries, I hate to tell you, but it has ZERO impact. Why? Because debt today is simply cash that pays interest.
Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.
Then it all depends on who is actually the seller of the debt to the Fed. If China sold its debt for cash, then the dollar went offshore and the domestic money supply never increased. There is a lot more to this game than the simplistic analysis that leads to brainwashing the financial community and investors. I know. I have been one of the few international advisers dealing with people on all continents.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 23, 2021 | Sundance | 380 Comments
Eh, this is awkward… and simultaneously so typical of the current administration. The White House trotted Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm to the microphones today to tell the DC stenographers how brilliant, beneficial and strategically necessary it is to release 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to lower gasoline prices. The enthusiastic Energy Secretary read the script, gave her talking points and then took questions.
However, after spending 15 minutes talking about the strategic brilliance of the 50 million barrel release, one of the stenographers accidentally asked: “that said, how many barrels of oil do U.S. consumers use every day?”… Granholm paused, looked down and said: “I don’t have that number in front of me, I’m sorry“… WATCH:
♦ The amount we are giving you is so incredible and brilliant it will make everyone’s lives better. The best ever.
♦ How much do we need?
♦ I don’t know. We didn’t get that information. But the amount we are giving is awesome.
Yup, that’s the Biden administration encapsulated.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 23, 2021 | Sundance | 238 Comments
Apparently the people behind Joe Biden realize the ridiculous prices at the gas pump are going to be a major political issue for them in the next election. As a result, they have decided to release 50 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), enough for approximately 3 days of demand. [Announcement Here]
The strategic reserve is intended as an emergency supply in the event of war or national crisis that demands we have some insurance measures to protect ourselves. The SPR is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil, and the oil stocks are stored in underground salt caverns at four storage sites in Texas and Louisiana.
The oil in the strategic oil reserve was previously paid for by taxpayers. What Biden is doing right now is giving reserve oil to energy companies who then turn around and refine it into gasoline for taxpayers to purchase. We get to buy it twice, and Biden wants to be thanked for doing it.
The Biden administration is going to lower gas prices for taxpayers by allowing taxpayers to purchase their own oil. Brilliant!
In related news, the Biden administration also held a call today [LINK] to announce their plan to ease inflation by printing more money.
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