Category End of Fossil Fuel

Jun 29 2022

Oversaturated Retail


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Jun 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Smartphones were in short supply at the end of 2021. I mentioned that Counterpoint Research lowered their forecast of global smartphone shipments from 1.45 billion units to 1.41 billion. Their study further suggested that smartphone OEMs only received 80% of the crucial components they need this year to manufacture phones during the second half of the year. Samsung was forced to cancel its Galaxy Note series and people had to wait weeks on end for a phone. Recent commercials have been circulating where Samsung is begging clients to bring in their old phones from any year, and in any condition, to upgrade to the newest model.

They ramped up production, but the demand was no longer there by the time the products arrived. Samsung now has 50 million phones in stock that they cannot sell. A new smartphone purchase is not necessarily on the list of priorities for most during rising inflation and a teetering recession. The company estimates that it will ship 270 million phones this year, but that leaves them with 18% in unsold inventory at best. Samsung noted that their lower-priced models make up the majority of idle inventory, indicating a sign of the times.

Samsung is not the only company suffering from supply now outweighing demand. Walmart, Gap, Target, and American Eagle all reported in their last earnings calls that they have more products than they can sell. The warehousing costs for idle inventory are leading some companies to consider reversing their return policy – here’s your money, keep the item.

“For every dollar in sales, a retailer’s net profit is between a cent to five cents. With returns, for every dollar in returned merchandise, it costs a retailer between 15 cents to 30 cents to handle it,” retail expert Burt Flickinger told CNN. This puts retailers at risk since many will abuse the policy. Sales and clearances on seasonal items are expected as the retail market is oversaturated with supplies that arrived too late.

Jun 29 2022

Fuel Shipping Costs Soar


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-

Posted Jun 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The cost of shipping has added another variable to the complicated global inflation and energy crisis. According to the Baltic Exchange data as reported by Bloomberg, hauling rates have reached a high not seen since April 2020.

The TC-5 passage commonly used to transport fuel from the Middle East to Japan cost around $61 per day in February. That same voyage costs an alarming $50,000 per day. Shipping costs from the US to Brazil on route TC-18 spiked from $3,800 per day in February to a high of $37,000 daily. The world is reliant on these fuels, and demand is expected to rise 6% this year alone.

Europe shot itself in the foot by eliminating its usage of Russian oil. The US and Canada similarly created their own energy crises by becoming reliant on fuel imports. A tax holiday or similar temporary bandage will not help the ongoing crisis that will certainly last beyond the Russia-Ukraine [and West’s proxy] war.

Jun 29 2022

Christian Persecutions in the US


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Roe v. Wade repeal has led to a widespread string of attacks on Christians across the United States. Sadly, these people do not realize that blue states will remain largely unaffected by this verdict. The decision will simply be made at the state level. Persecutions against Christians are on the rise and independent branches of domestic terrorist organizations are popping up left and (not) right.

A group called “Jane’s Revenge” firebombed a pro-life center and injured two innocent firemen. Compass Care CEO Jim Harden called the current state of affairs a “pro-abortion “Kristallnacht,” referring to the night Nazis destroyed Jewish businesses and synagogues. “If abortions aren’t safe, neither are you!” has been graffitied on countless Christian institutions across the country with follow-up messages saying the violence will not cease until the Supreme Court reverses its ruling.

A preacher in Seattle was recently attacked by a mob who tore his Bible to shreds. Reporter Jonathan Choe tweeted what he saw: “Seattle street preacher hanging on to construction sign, being carried out by Antifa thugs, then dropped to [the] ground. As he tried to read from the Bible, they prevented him from entering [the] area abortion rights rally was happening.”

The White House claims it is “denouncing” violence but has done nothing to protect those who are being hunted for their beliefs. Countless Democratic leaders have incited violence by asking the people to take to the streets to protest “peacefully.” Some are even calling for the dismantlement of the Supreme Court. Biden claimed that the MAGA crowd was the most dangerous organization in America, but look around. The violence will continue, and those in power are subtly, if not blatantly, encouraging the terror.

Ironically, the left opened the door for the Supreme Court to rule on what people can and cannot do with their bodies. These are the same people who believe adults and children should be banned from society if they do not receive the experimental vaccine. They wanted the government to tell us what to do with our bodies, and this is the result.

Jun 29 2022

Defaults & Stupidity


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The West has forced Russia into its first foreign debt default since 1918. You really have to wonder exactly how our world leaders rationalize their reasoning. Strangely, this was actually cyclically on target. It was two groups of 6 waves of 8.6 years making it 104 years, It is interesting how Socrates had targeted that as well. We are in the Sovereign Debt Default mode. As I have said before, we will see that start in the emerging markets which have already begun. It will then spread to Europe and eventually end up with the United States coming in last.

While our politicians cheer forcing Russia into default, these morons only look at stopping Russia from borrowing. They have relieved it of debt servicing and that means the losers are Western institutions which are primarily pension funds because they got a better rate in the face of deplorable rates in the West. This will create more of a financial crisis in the West and these funds will then turn to their respective governments for compensation since they caused the default.

The Federal Reserve is pushing rates higher as I warned because they are blamed for inflation. It does not matter that it will fail and created more inflation and spur the emerging market sovereign default. That is the ONLY tool they have under Keynesian Economics.

My bet is when the history books are written of this period, they will classify our world leaders as the worse possible gathering of incompetent people who are leading the world DELIBERATELY into World War III.  I thank God I am not 18 years old. I get to leave this insane world that is now just simply nuts. I had one reader comment that they must be too old because they do not even understand all these labels like a non-binary person.

In my days, there was just someone who was Gay, Bisexual, and Heterosexual. We knew the difference between a man and a woman. Even in Thailand, guys that had their sex changed called themselves lady-boys. I feel like my grandfather who was born in 1894 and died at 99 back in 1993. I bought him a 70″ TV so he could see it better. He said to me, he didn’t like it. I asked what was wrong Pop? He said it plays more commercials than the old one.

He saw it all. The invention of electric lights, cars, planes, and TV. Today, there are so many labels and if you use the wrong one they are offended. I think it is time for a singular label – Hey you! Historically, the more labels you create, the greater the division, and the faster civilization crumbles to dust. That’s what 2032 is all about.

Jun 29 2022

Feminine Product Shortage Fuels War on Women


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ethics Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Essential feminine products are in short supply. A few girls I know laughed and said that they could have told me this a year ago before the topic reached the headlines. One complained that she traveled to three different stores to find her preferred brand. A shortage of cotton and plastic items has led to a slowdown in tampon manufacturing. This is not a good time of the month to anger half of the population.

Both CVS and Walgreens acknowledged the shortages and promised to increase supply. A spokesperson for the tampon manufacturing company Tampax, owned by P&G, said that they are “producing tampons 24/7 to meet the increased demand for our products.” Instacart, a grocery and drugstore delivery service, noted that tampon orders dropped to 67% last week and panic buying of bulk orders rose 29% week over week.

Adding to the war on women, feminine product prices have risen 10% in the past year according to NielsenIQ. Let us not forget the “pink tax” – women’s products were already 42% higher than products marketed to men. Before the world fell apart, women paid $1,300 per year more on average for the same products as men. That amount is much higher now. Worsening matters, most states in the US add a “luxury tax” to tampons and other essential feminine products. Yet, numerous companies and universities are stocking men’s restrooms with tampons to appeal to the woke culture.

New York estimated that it lost $14 million in annual revenue after repealing the tampon tax in 2016. California voted to suspend the tampon and diaper tax for two years, with an estimated loss of $55 million. Governments should not be using women’s bodies for their budgets. Our newest Supreme Court justice refuses to define “woman,” but the government is taking advantage of our daughters, wives, and sisters with little pushback for what is blatant discrimination.

Jun 29 2022

U.S. and Canada Tell G7 That Climate Change Policy is More Important Than Feeding People


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 28, 2022 | Sundance

Say what you will about Boris Johnson, but he does proffer pragmatic solutions to problems.

With a pending global food shortage only looking worse by the day British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed to use biofuel farmland to grow food that can be consumed by people.

German Chancellor Olaf Schulz is also supporting the plan. However, Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau have denounced the effort to expand food production in the U.S. and Canada and blocked the framework from G7 policy.

WASHINGTON – […] Mr Johnson will address G7 leaders at a summit in Germany and ask them to repurpose land currently used for crop-based biofuels to grow more food.

The Prime Minister believes using less green fuel would dampen soaring food prices and help avert famines in poorer countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain blockaded in ports by Russia.

However, Mr Biden’s officials made it clear on Sunday that Washington will attempt to block the plans in a bid to protect US farmers and avoid jeopardising climate commitments.

Downing Street sources admitted that Mr Johnson’s plan would fail without the support of all G7 nations. The Telegraph understands Germany is backing the plan, but it has been rebuffed by the US and Canada. (read more).

North American farmers, experts in crop efficiency and production, could easily fill the gap on any missing food products from Ukraine.  Unlike Europe North America has more than one annual crop cycle each year.  We are fortunate in our abundance.  However, the multinational corporations, Big Ag, would need to see support from U.S. and Canadian agriculture policy before expanding production for food.

The Biden administration has already increased the mandate for biofuel ethanol and is charging gasoline refineries more money if they do not use 15% ethanol (E15) year-round. This Biden administration E15 mandate, or pay a fee, is part of what has driven up the price of gasoline.

The EPA enforces the biofuel standard by requiring refineries to submit purchase credits (known as Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proving they purchased ethanol or biofuel to mix with refined gasoline. {Go Deep}

This enforcement requirement sets up a system where the RIN credits are bought and sold by small refineries who do not have or want the infrastructure to do E15 blending.  Those refineries purchase second-hand RIN credits from parties that blended or imported biofuels directly. This sets up a secondary income stream, a trading market for the larger oil companies, refineries and importers.

[NOTE: The RIN credit trading platform is similar to what we might expect to see if the ‘Carbon Trading’ scheme was ever put into place.]   However, now that the summer biofuel requirements for blended gasoline have gone from 10% to 15%, the price of the RIN credits has increased.  This costs refineries billions in additional expenses,…. which means the cost of non E15 gasoline from the refineries has increased…. which means the price of non E15 gasoline at the pump has increased.

If the U.S. and Canada were really concerned about food insecurity and the potential for famine, Joe Biden would drop the E15 requirement (the term “waiver” is a misnomer in this policy that actually means government requirement) then less biofuel would be needed and less RIN credits would need to be purchased.  This would allow North American farmers to produce food crops for people and would simultaneously drop the price of gasoline (no RIN credits needed).

However, the U.S. (Biden) and Canada (Trudeau) will not generate more food for people because that would undercut the effort for climate change.

Maintaining the climate change agenda is more important than feeding people, according to Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden.

Jun 29 2022

French President Macron Tells Joe Biden That Begging Saudi Arabia for More Oil Won’t Help, The Saudis are at Maximum Production – Video


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 28, 2022 | Sundance

Video has surfaced showing French President Emmanuel Macron informing Joe Biden that asking Saudi Arabia for more oil will not help the current situation and the global energy crisis Joe Biden has created.

The video is from an impromptu conversation at the G7 Summit in Germany.  After a minute, Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan steps in and tells the group they need to go inside and have this conversation because the media can hear and see what they are discussing.  WATCH:

The larger issue comes down to a catastrophic energy agenda by Joe Biden made worse by U.S. foreign policy.  Biden has killed the U.S. oil and gas industry driving up the price of energy which is having horrific consequences as consumer prices skyrocket.  Simultaneous to this bad domestic energy policy, Biden has placed sanctions against Russian oil and gas with the backdrop of preexisting sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

No oil/gas from Russia, no oil/gas from Iran, no oil/gas from Venezuela and now less oil/gas from the United States.  The western alliance is trying to push the climate change agenda while cutting off their own access to cheap energy supplies.   THIS is the primary source of what has been called “global inflation,” it is a self-inflicted wound against the citizens in the western nations.

French President Emmanuel Macron telling the installed occupant of the White House that Saudi Arabia cannot produce more oil for at least six months.

Jun 28 2022

Kremlin: NATO Preparing for War with Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

(Footage from Operation Barbarossa, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War)

I have warned that Russia has felt as if it were on the defensive. They feel that the West and NATO have aligned against them and infringed on their sovereignty. Pope Francis made similar comments when he said that Russia was perhaps “provoked” and invaded Ukraine once they felt backed into a corner from which there was no escape.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently stated that he fears NATO and the West are planning to eventually wage war with Russia. The European Union (EU) recently granted candidacy status to Ukraine after denying them entry for years. They know Ukraine’s debt will be unpayable after the war without Russian reparations which will likely cripple the Russian economy. The war would have ended months ago if Western powers did not intervene and continually provide billions in funding. They are not simply doing a good deed – there is a reason behind their involvement.

Lavrov compared the situation to June 22, 1941, when Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was surprised by the attack, but Germany was not alone. Troops from Romania and Finland helped Germany invade, and later forces from Croatia, Hungary, Italy, and Slovakia were brought in to fight all the way to the outer areas of Moscow.

“Hitler rallied a significant part, if not most, of the European nations under his banner for a war against the Soviet Union,” Lavrov said. “[N]ow, the EU together with NATO are forming another—modern—coalition for a standoff and, ultimately, war with the Russian Federation.” Everyone disregards these remarks simply because they cannot fathom comparing a Jewish identifying leader (Zelensky) to Hitler despite the fact that Zelensky has been seen alongside modern-day Nazi coalitions.

Jun 28 2022

French President Macron Wants Sanctioned Oil from Iran and Venezuela to Replace Russian Oil, Willfully Blind Joe Biden Likely to Agree


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

It is quite remarkable to consider that almost 100% of these global issues could immediately disappear if the far-left ideologues behind Joe Biden would just unleash the American energy sector.  Alas, the seemingly religious cult of climate ideology will not allow it…. therefore we get these bizarre outcomes.

The U.S. has economic sanctions against oil exports from Iran, Venezuela and now Russia.  The EU is economically collapsing under their inability to power their economies without energy products, a specific outcome of the latest NATO and EU sanctions against Russia.

The green energy programs in the EU cannot sustain the needs of the population.  As a result, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz and French President Emmanuel Macron are asking Joe Biden to lift sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and let Iranian and Venezuelan oil replace the missing Russian oil.  Again, none of this would be needed if the U.S. just developed more oil and gas domestically; but Biden won’t change policy.

(Reuters) – The international community should explore all options to alleviate a Russian squeeze of energy supplies that has spiked prices, including talks with producing nations like Iran and Venezuela, a French presidency official said on Monday.

Venezuela has been under U.S. oil sanctions since 2019, and could reroute crude if those restrictions were lifted.  Indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive a nuclear deal that could see sanctions on Tehran lifted and its oil exports resume have been on hold since March, but are due to resume in Doha soon.

“There are resources elsewhere that need to be explored,” a French official said on the sidelines of a G7 summit in Germany, when asked about how to alleviate high oil prices.

The outstanding issue between Iran and the United States was no longer linked to the nuclear dossier but to U.S. terrorism sanctions, he said.

“So there is a knot that needs to be untied if applicable… to get Iranian oil back on the market,” the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We have Venezuelan oil that also needs to come back to the market.”

A second official said all options need to be explored given the stakes, including those involving Iran and Venezuela.

The first official called for a temporary increase in production from oil-producing nations, and said there would be an effort to try and convince them to do so.

[…] French President Emmanuel Macron was caught by Reuters TV rushing to tell Biden that he had spoken to United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ), who had told him that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could barely increase oil production. (read more)

Apparently, when you overlay the geopolitical western chase for climate change ideology, some sanctions become less important than others.

Saudi Arabia cannot replace Russian, American, Iranian and Venezuelan oil for the western governments; it would simply be too high of a production demand for Saudi Arabia to accomplish.   The western industrialized nations know this reality, although they keep pretending publicly that some alternative solution is possible, and they are now flummoxed about how to remove former ideological sanctions against Iran and Venezuela without exposing the insanity of their geopolitics.

All of this is only happening because the western alliance is chasing the pipe dream theory behind “Build Back Better.”   The supposed “green energy” programs can never compensate for the efficient use of oil and gas, yet they must pretend not to admit this reality in order to sustain the decades of lies behind their climate change claims.

It’s creating a hot mess of hypocrisy that one would hope the world will eventually notice.

Jun 27 2022

A Pink Insurrection


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Abortionists stormed the Wisconsin state capitol building. They interrupted an ongoing special session and demanded that lawmakers overturn their rulings, interrupting a democratic process with screams and chants. There will be no news of this in the mainstream media. There will not be a January 6 manhunt for anyone who “stormed” the capitol.

Anyone who entered or even attended the January 6 protest has been tracked down and arrested. They claimed that the protestors on January 6 were violent, which could not be farther from the truth. This group backed by Planned Parenthood has a violent past. One supporter already tried to kill a Supreme Court justice, while others have burned down churches and businesses that do not support their beliefs. Will the lawmakers at the capitol cry on television like AOC and Pelosi and claim they feared for their lives? No. Did anyone care when a man with zip ties, a knife, and a gun attempted to enter the home of Justice Kavanaugh? No.

The left is permitted to commit crimes and terrorize the country with zero repercussions.