Are These the End Times?


Posted originally on Sep 23, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

Most people have no idea that the idea of Armageddon – the End Times- is not merely just in the Bible and confined to Christianity. You have the Orthodox Jews also assuming this is the time that their Messiah will arrive. Then there is Islam, which, according to Islamic tradition, Jesus’ return as a Messenger of Islam will be preceded by wars led by the Mahdi (the rightly guided one) and by the appearance of the Dajjal (the Antichrist).

Dome of the Rock Drawing

There is certainly a religious component to the turmoil both in Ukraine, where Zelensky is outlawing Orthodox Christianity, and in the Middle East, over the Dome of the Rock. Many want to see the Dome of the Rock destroyed, assuming this will bring the Second Coming. Whatever you believe, the question is clear: destroy the Dome of the Rock, and there will certainly be a major war. Will that be the Second Coming if deliberately instigated?

Dome of the Rock Inside

I have been there. This is the rock where the Jews say Abraham brought his son to be sacrificed. This is the same rock from which Mohamed ascended to heaven in Islam. This does not leave any room for any compromise on this issue.

1844 Phila Nativism Riot Againt Irish
No Popery Dublin May 30 1844

There is no question that the world is becoming deeply divided. This is turning into not just a war for power, but many see this as a religious war. There is a cycle to everything, including religion. Upheavals involving religion have been documented even back into ancient Egyptian times. Just in 1844, there were violent clashes and gun battles on the streets of Philadelphia between Protestants who resented Irish Catholics coming in during economic hard times and taking local jobs. Such events have been dramatic when they coincide with economic decline as we are headed into 2028.

Akhenaten 1351 1365BC

Akhenaten (Achencres), who ruled in Egypt around 1350BC, instigated a political and religious revolution, moving the capital to a new city at a site known today as Amarna and attempting to change the religion of Egypt to sole worship of the sun-disk or Aten. Akhetaten instituted a significant shift in Egyptian artistic styles alongside a campaign of intolerance towards the traditional gods and a new emphasis on a state monolatristic tradition focused on the god Aten, the Sun disk. He launched a campaign destroying many temples and monuments. This was the first real iconoclastic movement that would later engulf Christianity during the 8th century AD.

Pope Condemms Zelensky

We know that his reign was chaotic, attempting to change the religious culture of any society as Zelensky is doing to the Russians in the Donbas. Even the Pope has come out against Zelensky. Religious upheavals have littered the historical landscape for millenniums. We also know that Akhenaten’s family was killed except for one daughter who fled perhaps to Scotland. Three short-lived Pharaohs, including Tutankhamun, succeeded him.

Pontius Pillate AE

Of course, we have the rise of Christianity. While Nero (54-68AD) blamed the Christians for setting the Great Fire of 64AD, that is at least understandable since many were blaming him, and he needed a scapegoat. It was not really a persecution due to their religion. It is just the Christians refused to respect the religion of anyone else, which made them outsiders and radicals.

Elagabalus AV AR Stone of Emesa

We also know that the short-lived Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD) attempted to introduce his religion, claiming that this black meteor fell from God to symbolize they were the chosen people. He issued coins showing the Stone of Messa (Syria) being presented to the people of Rome carried around on a chariot.

Stone of Emesa Church

His reign was notorious for religious fanaticism, cruelty, bloodshed, and excesses of every description, and there was general satisfaction when, on March 6th, 222, Elagabalus and his mother, Julia Soaemias, were murdered in the praetorian camp. Their bodies were dragged through the streets of Rome and thrown into the Tiber. The Romans at least respectfully returned the black Stone to Emesa to where he had stood.

Sol_Invictus_Halo

The Roman Emperor Aurelian (270-275AD) also introduced the Eastern sun god Sol into the Roman religion. This took hold, for he was presented as invincible, for he rose every day doing battle with the moon every night. The symbols of the halo and even his feast day, December 25th, were adopted into Christianity.

Christian Persecution

The persecution of Christians during the late 3rd century AD under Diocletian (284-305AD) was because of all the turmoil and barbarian invasions. They blamed the Christians for making the gods angry by refusing to honor them when there would be national prayers to save the empire.

Constantine becomes Christian 312AD

You then have Constantine the Great (309-337AD) declared Christianity the state religion in 312AD. Nearly 300 years later we have the rise of Islam. There were plenty of religious upheavals within that period, including the Iconoclastic upheaval.

Justinian Al Malek

One notable change within the Byzantine Empire came in 695AD when Justinian II’s (685-695AD) government added a full-face image of Christ on the obverse of imperial gold coins. The change caused the Caliph Abd al-Malik (661-750AD) to stop the use of Byzantine coinage introducing a purely Islamic coinage with lettering only.

Shifts in Christianity

Indeed, the next cycle in religious upheaval is due by 2031. We most certainly live in interesting times and the LEFT is anti-religious. Under Communism, they converted churches to museum of activism.

Marx Museum Aetheists

Are the Democrats just Marxists and are indeed anti-religious?

I suppose time will tell.

Confrontation – Japan shoots at Russian Planes


Posted originally on Sep 23, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2024_09_23_19_52_43_Japan_fires_at_Russian_jets_violating_its_airspace_as_world_war_fears_explode

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi held an emergency press conference reporting a confrontation between Russian planes that violated Japanese airspace north of Rebun Island in Hokkaido several times. The Cycle of Civil War in Korea turns up in 2025 and our computer is pointing to an escalation of conflicts starting in 2025 and we even see a Panic Cycle in 2025 in Japan.

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

At the 2011 World Economic Conference 2011, I stood up and warned that our computer and its cycle of war would turn up in 2014. In 2013, I even warned that the computer had targeted Ukraine. They are coming out with a sequel to the movie on me titled The Forecaster. The trailer should be out soon. They are showing all the forecasts that have been made since they were there filming in 2011. They want to show how this computer has laid out the future with incredible accuracy. They even asked me how it has been to live through the forecasts the computer has made.

At this WEC in November, it may be the last time people can physically attend. They are planning on introducing Digital IDs to restrict travel. Those in power realize it is slipping away. We will be covering the prospect of war now on all four fronts. Biden has just announced he is sending more troops to the Middle East after Israel has been bombing Lebanon.

We certainly live in interesting times!

We will let you know when this report is finished

Creating_World_War_III WEC 2024

Ukraine Ordered by US Neocons to Provoke WWIII Before Election


Posted originally on Sep 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

2024_09_10_18_30_59_9_Russian_Regions_Including_Moscow_Come_Under_Ukrainian_Drone_Attack_Official

We have a MAJOR problem with Ukraine. This is NOT about defending their territory or fake democracy when Zelensky has suspended any election to maintain his dictatorship as long as there is a raging war. Ukraine has invaded Russia, and last night, Zelensky launched scores of attack drones, even targeting Moscow. If China invaded the US and landed in California and was 500 miles into the state and was launching missiles then at Washington, DC, would we do nothing?

2023_02_21_Putin_Speech 2

Putin is the ONLY adult among world leaders who fully understands the ramifications of what NATO and the American Neocons are doing – trying to provoke a response where Putin attacks anything in NATO so they can pretend he is the aggressor to launch World War III. This was staged to influence the debate tonight on ABC, a Neocon mouthpiece. Trump and RFK are anti-war, and we may see Kamala or ABC use questions to resurrect that Trump is a Putin Puppet because he is against World War III, as is RFK. If they use this attack tonight, you know this was a set-up. The Democrats are flooding the emails with requests for endless donations.

Nuke or Coup

Can you imagine China invading California and Washington doing nothing? There would be a call to impeach the president immediately. This is my concern. Despite all the propaganda by the Western press that is choreographed by the Neocons, with many quoting as their source, the ISW (Institute for the Study of War), which the Neocon Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law runs, Putin is NOT a warmonger. If he is overthrown, trust me, it will be by someone far less restrained.

Embargo on Japan 2 15 20
Hawaii Tribune

Today, the Neocons follow the same playbook used by FDR. Congress would not issue a Declaration of War to enter WWII in Europe. FDR did whatever he could to force the Japanese to attack, which was the justification for entering World War II. We are following the same playbook. Because it came out that the US had already broken the Japanese code, they knew about the coming attack. There was a Senate Investigation into this manipulation of Congress.   There was even a leak to the press that the Japanese might attack Pearl Harbor on November 30th, before the attack of December 7th, 1941.

NATO_Defeat Russia_in_3_Days Adam Kinzinger


I fear that unless Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon inside Russia to eradicate the invading Ukrainian force, we may see a coup where he is overthrown. The ONLY way to wake up the West is to demonstrate that he will use a nuke for NATO, and the American Neocons say he is bluffing. That is the only way to get the West to question our leaders.

These Neocons and NATO say that Russia is weak to support the idea that Ukraine has invaded Russia, and they are weak so that NATO can take Russia in just three days. This is why Adam Kinzinger and Cheney’s daughter are pushing Republicans for Kamala because she is the stooge of the Neocons, just like Biden. These people cannot sleep at night if there is world peace. They are the warmongers, and it is like I punch you in the face and call it self-defense because I know you want to hit me first.

Russia’s version of Neocons would respond if they overthrow Putin, for they also want World War III. Every country has its LEFT and RIGHT. The same is true in China. If these Neocons seize power worldwide in all three superpowers, we are in for a very bad time. Then, the nukes will be flying.

Zelensky in F16

Zelensky is an actor. He has destroyed Ukraine and boasts that he will get trillions to rebuild Ukraine and line his pockets. Of course, our computer warns that Ukraine will not exist as a nation after 2027. He hates Russians and wants to destroy the country completely. The mister in Estonia has come out and had the audacity to say that Russia is too big and should be carved up, and the West will rape the assets of Russia, which was the goal of Napoleon and Hitler.

JFK on War

There has never been a war that has EVER ended as expected. I believe it has been declassified that the plan to invade Iraq was assumed they would conclude in a few weeks and then move to invade Iran. They never were able to subdue Iraq as quickly as they predicted. This nonsense that Russia is weak will be the downfall of the West. They took JFK out because he, too, was anti-war.

assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria

Our computer has been targeting the week of September 9th for months. It was the strongest target for the month in Russia. When you look at Ukraine, we enter a Panic Cycle next week, and a two-week trend unfolds. Europe and the US appear to get more serious at the end of the month. Don’t forget: It was the assassination of the heir to the throne there in Sareavo that launched World War I.

Ruble W Array 9 10 24
Ukraine_Hryvnia W 9 10 24
IBEUUS W Array 9 10 24

Neocons for Harris – Bring on World War III


Posted originally on Sep 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

2hr Study nuclear weapons

QUESTION: Have you seen this latest claim that the US could take out all the nuclear launch pads of China and Russia in just 2 hours? This seems to be another Neocon boast of supporting World War III like we can defeat Russia in three days. What is it with these people? They are playing with the entire planet’s lives and never think they might be wrong.

Jeff

NATO_Defeat Russia_in_3_Days Adam Kinzinger

ANSWER: First of all, studies like this only promote that Russia and China should be deeply concerned about what they see as American Imperialism thanks to these nut-jobs. They do not consider that warfare has changed since World War II. If China moves to take Taiwan, a military clash will erupt of unprecedented threat, and the US does not appear to win so easily. During World War II, we won the battles in Asia due to the use of the U.S. Navy’s carriers. Back then, they were invulnerable floating fortresses. Missiles back then were land-based, so as long as they stayed out of range, they were invincible.

Unprecedented_Launch_of_Republicans_for_Harris_causes_commotion_and_62_more

You can tell Harris will take us into World War III because the Neocons are backing her, claiming Republicans for Harris. They will switch sides routinely because all they want is war. The mere fact they are doing this proves my point.

Today, China has developed anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. They can take out a carrier with no problem. Carriers are vulnerable, and the traditional roles they once played in winning wars are like fighting an army with guns while you have bow and arrows. They are no longer capable of protecting landing forces as in the old days. I have been told that in war game simulations, the US would lose two carriers at the beginning of hostilities. China can take them out without a problem using these A2/AD systems.

These Neocons boost their capabilities without realizing that China and Russia will not wait for 2 hrs to eliminate their nuclear weapons. With the first launch, they will know just as the systems in Israel can detect a launch as it leaves the pad.

Consumed by Hate

I do not know what to say. These people are consumed by their hatred, and they really need to be imprisoned as a threat to human society – not just our nation.

Kennedy & Eisenhower on the Military Complex


Posted originally on Sep 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Eisenhower Warned us:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the 1mgc industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

Zelensky Invasion of Russia on Instructions of NATO & Neocons?


Posted originally on Sep 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have studied tactical warfare over the centuries. I was first introduced to you at Citadel in the eighties when they discussed your work and the Economic Confidence Model. Since that was a military college, they would never have introduced me to your work if you did not understand military tactics. I know you regard that as an opinion, but perhaps now is the time to speak up since you are qualified in this field. There is a question arising over Ukraine’s invasion of Russia, and most seem to say this has taken Zelensky’s allies by surprise. I do not see that as being possible. Is Russia as weak as some are saying? Or is this a brilliant trap? I would love to hear about your military tactics and know who you studied.

WH

Socrates in battle

Socrates rescues Alcibiades at the battle of Potidaea

ANSWER: Of course. It was the Citadel that asked permission to use the ECM and compared me to Hegel. That was the first time I was discussed in a philosophy class. Yes, I have studied war. I remember Socrates questioned a general, asking if he would ever retreat. He said no. Then Socrates asked if it was true that a great battle was won in which an enemy was drawn in with a fake retreat. I find it astonishingly stupid for Zelensky to make this move to invade Russia. I question if it was truly his decision alone. If any military commander criticized him, I’m sure he was relieved of duty. Zelensky is just what you want leading the troops—a comedian who dodged the draft several times himself. Zelensky is a war criminal. He has no business being the head of a country, no less a war. This is such a stupid move; he had to have been told to do this by the Neocons.

Ukraibe Invades Russia

Zelensky is putting on a show that he thought would raise more money. But he was also probably told to do so by the American Neocons, who need war before the election. Yet he is an idiot since Russia advances toward the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, making significant tactical advances that this moron fails to understand. While Zelensky is putting on a show by invading Russia, he can find himself with supply lines cut off and his troops encircled. He will not retreat because that would now upset his cash flow after making a major move to beat his chest. Zelensky fears that Trump might win and is trying to demonstrate that he can defeat Russia. He also thinks he can strike a peace deal if he retreats from Russia and Putin withdraws from the Donbas and Crimea. What an idiot!!!!!! He is such a fool with zero understanding of tactical warfare.

Goring Herman on War

If this high-heel dancing draft-dodger ever went to school, he probably skipped history class. Russia was invaded by Hitler’s Nazi Operation Barbarossa in 1941. There was a Battle of Kursk in 1943. As Goring testified at Nuremberg,

“All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peachmakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

Invading Russia and killing Russian civilians will enrage all of Russia, and Zelensky has brought the war home to all of Russia. Zelensky has made the most brain-dead decision, and his total lack of understanding of war is self-evident.

Pearl HarborDec 7 1941

FDR could not get Congress to enter World War II until Pearl Harbor was attacked on December 7th, 1941. Once America was attacked, that resulted in America entering the war. This is the stupidity of Zelensky, and his show of force was most likely instructed by the American Neocons, who were desperate to create World War III before Trump took office. They have to understand military tactics. This is the oldest lesson from ancient times. An ancillary war does not get all of society to rise up. Attack any society, and then you will have the entire population rising up.

Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapon

All the troops Zelensky sent into Russia can be surrounded, and Putin is now free to use any means necessary, including tactical nuclear weapons. He needs to deploy tactical nukes on his own territory to make a show to Europe that this is what NATO is risking with its antics. The only possible strategy would be to use a tactical nuclear weapon (small detonation) option on Russian territory. This will get all the Russians to rise up and realize that this invasion is truly orchestrated by the United States, Neocons, and NATO with the purpose of destroying Russia. This is the ONLY hope that the West will rise up against NATO and the Neocons and stop this war. I do not believe anything else will solve the problem.

The Neocons and NATO are desperately trying to get Putin to attack any NATO country or to use a nuke in Ukraine. They can then claim that Putin has attacked the West like Pearl Harbor to justify World War III. These people do not believe in anything other than their own hatred. Perhaps they are going to church to light candles praying for war, like in some scenes from The Godfather.

This is the Neocons Desperate to Create WWIII Before the Elections

Britain’s Perspective on World War III


Posted orginally on Jul 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

british_pounds_falling_800_clr_5176

Britain believes the next world war against an “axis of upheaval” will begin within three years. General Sir Roly Walker has issued a warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek revenge against the Western powers who supported Ukraine. He believes China, North Korea, and Iran will form an alliance against the West by 2027 to 2028

The point here is when you think they [the Russians] are down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance,” Walker said at a recent conference. “That is why you get to this point by… 2027-2028 this convergence may have reached some sort of mutual singularity and your ability to deal with them in isolation – a specific crisis that can be managed by the rules based system – I think is significantly diminished,” he said.

This is in line with our computer models that have long insisted we would see a rise in both international and domestic conflicts throughout most nations by 2027 going into 2028. Britain is already quietly at war with Russia. Our UK array on the 10-year shows higher volatility into 2025.

I explained at the London Seminar that the Brits are extremely effective secretaries and we have a massive amount of data that helps us to predict what is to come. Interest rates rallied up five years to the downtrend line, but during times of war, interest rates must go up. The pound could eventually fall to 80 cents – it’s a confidence factor. As long as people anticipate war, you’re looking at capital outflows.

Everything must be viewed from a global perspective. I also explained in London that Taiwan may cease to exist as a nation by 2028. “A problem in one area is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and therefore it is a global problem looked at from different perspectives around the world,” Sir Walker stated. The true problem is that the NATO Neocons cannot resist the desire to engage in warfare. They have already set up the stage to attack China over Taiwan. It is not a matter of China becoming sympathetic to Russia, but rather, China has long felt that the international community is interfering in their personal affairs.

The British army will be ready to fight and kill the new formation of axis powers by 2027. Sir Walker believes the British army is outdated in troops and strength and needs to rebuild. Every nation is increasing military spending. There is a cycle to war and sadly it will soon be time for the next conflict.

NATO Escalation – Biden Approves Ukraine to Use U.S Missiles and Weapons to Strike Inside Russia


Posted originally on the CTH on May 31, 2024 | Sundance

According to Politico and the New York Times the Biden administration has given Ukraine approval to launch U.S provided missiles into Russia.  {LINK} This is a major escalation of NATO engagement, likely intended to provoke Russia to strike alternate targets.  The people inside Ukraine responsible for using these U.S. provided weapons are likely not Ukranian.

CTH is in an unusually serendipitous position to analyze how Russia is responding to this shift in USA position.  The morale inside Russia is very high amid the military age population.  The recruitment efforts of the Russian government appear to be numerous and very effective.

There are thousands of newly enlisted military personnel very visible in/around training facilities.  There is no apparent tension discernable. Overall Russia appears to take great pride in their military, and it is considered a matter of honor and pride to support them.

WASHINGTON – The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”

[…] In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

It’s a stunning shift the administration initially said would escalate the war by more directly involving the U.S. in the fight. But worsening conditions for Ukraine on the battlefield –– namely Russia’s advances and improved position in Kharkiv –– led the president to change his mind. (read more)

You can tell from the general vibe amid the officials of government, Russia is not playing around with their military approach toward previous NATO encroachment or the provocations by the U.S.  The sense is that Russia is in this for the long haul and their structural changes in the aftermath of the sanction regime are not temporary.  Russians overall are hard and resilient to the reality of things as they are, not as they would wish them to be.

Russia appears to be entirely prepared financially, sociologically and economically to remain disconnected from the “West.”  Asia and India are filling the economic void created by Western sanctions.  Amid ordinary life, the general Russian sentiment seems to be one of acceptance to the geopolitical isolation.

In recent weeks the push toward further conflict with Russia seemed to be diminishing; however, this direct action by Biden and the State Dept puts the USA (NATO) in a more aggressive posture.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposes the escalation by NATO.

WASHINGTON – […] During a Friday interview on state radio, Orbán said that French President Emmanuel Macron’s stance that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops to Ukraine, as well as a NATO proposal that would allow Kyiv to strike military bases inside Russia with sophisticated long-range weapons provided by Western partners, risked escalating the war in Ukraine into a global conflict.

“War is a monster that is constantly hungry, it must be fed, and it must be fed with money. And I see that the Americans and the Democratic government of the United States, and the leaders of the European Union, are ready to feed it,” he said. (read more)

Neocons Favor Nuclear War


Posted originally on May 28, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Nuclear Bomb

Japan has recently condemned US neocons for speaking favorably of nuclear war. The United States was the first nation to use an atomic bomb during a war, hitting the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, 1945. Nearly a quarter of a million people were instantly killed, while countless others suffered medical consequences for generations to come.

The Manhattan Project may have led Japan to surrender, rightfully so, as such destruction was previously unfathomable. The effects shocked the international community, and the threat of using another nuclear explosive has been the largest threat during times of war. There have been countless peace agreements and pledges to learn from past mistakes, but as the next world war rapidly approaches, the neocons have signaled that they would be willing to implode cities and civilizations.

Graham Lindsey b 1955

Why is it OK for America to drop two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end their existential threat war? … I thought it was OK,” Graham said in an NBC News program. “That was the right decision.” Graham then hinted at Israel doing whatever it needs to do “to survive as a Jewish state.”

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi called Graham’s statements “extremely regrettable.” The nuclear bombings “took many precious lives, caused (a number of) people to suffer unspeakable hardships such as illnesses and brought about an extremely regrettable humanitarian situation,” they drastically understated.

I have seen comments justifying the use of the atomic bombs in 1945 due to the cruelty of the Japanese Imperial forces. Do they realize that CIVILIANS were the primary victims of these nuclear weapons? What’s more – the majority of developed nations now have this power. America nuked Japan and the world fell silent. If someone were to drop a nuclear bomb today, the repercussions would be untold. Not only do developed nations have nuclear weapons, but they have them carefully positioned throughout the world and ready to launch at a moment’s notice.

Russia recently attempted to push an international treaty to ban weapons in space but was denied. The neocons WILL risk as many lives as possible, and now we know with certainty that the establishment is not above using nuclear weapons once again. We have experienced wars, but never nuclear wars. The damage and loss of life is unfathomable.

Western Sanctions Not Impacting Russian Economy as Much as Expected


Posted originally on the CTH on August 9, 2023 | Sundance 

I have been researching the MACRO economic dynamic in Russia quite deeply for the past six months.  Essentially looking to discover not only what impact the western imposed sanctions might be having, but more broadly looking to see what happens to self-sustainability when essentially locked out from the world of commercial imports.

The research is fascinating, not simply because it is a unique opportunity, but also because national economic issues play a big role in the overall social dynamic.  That said, I can say the social aspect is stunningly more interesting than the data driven outcomes.  When you really dig deep into actual life of the ordinary people in Russia, far away from the geopolitical contexts, you get an entirely different perspective.  My worldview of the average Russian person/family has completely changed.

There is a really good thread on how the western sanctions against Russia are having a much lesser impact than initially thought [SEE HERE].  On the economic side, one thing I would point to is how the economy is essentially an outcome of two facets: (1) the internal production strength, and (2) the service side of the ledger.

[READ HERE]

The author makes the accurate point that from a production side perspective, Russia actually has a larger economy now than Germany, the largest EU nation.  The cause for this is “autarchy” or self-sufficiency.  Indeed, as the timeline of the sanctions closes in on the second year completing, the Russian production economy is even stronger than when the sanctions began.  Quite simply, they are making even more of their own goods now.

The sanctions hit what would typically fall into the service side of the economy, as well as financial and economic roadblocks.  However, that aspect of the Russian economy was much smaller than most suspected and there were sanctions going back to 2014 which made the outcome of the 2022 western imposed restrictions less impactful.

I will be finishing my review of the economic data once Q3 is over, that will give me an entire year of data to share.  However, the social stuff is even more fascinating.

I have a new understanding of why former NSA contractor Edward Snowden was so comfortable using Russia as the place to hide after his release of classified intelligence showing how the U.S. government was spying on Americans via social media and metadata collection.

I have mostly been looking at three areas in Western Russia.  Kazan, Moscow and St Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).  Of the three generally large metropolitan areas, St Petersburg is by far the most interesting.  It’s beautiful there and the city is alive and vibrant.

In many ways you might compare Russia in 2023 to the USA in/around 1988.  Life is just not complicated and far more socially engaged.

I’ll have more on this later, but if you are ever bored check out the Russian YouTubers who livestream broadcast “a day-in-the-life” type of activity.  The infrastructure is in generally good repair, the people seem warm and friendly and there is a strong social value placed on family and kids.

There are certainly negatives and the cultural dynamic of the former USSR is still evident.  Technologically they are somewhat behind in some details, but the overall cohesion of their value system is something I did not fully appreciate until I started down this road of research.

I can see why the average Russian could be wide-eyed during a visit to the USA and fascinated with the overall quality of life that might be considered indulgent.  However, I can also see how reciprocally the average American could be wide-eyed and smiling at the overall sense of the Russian people.

Strip out the politics, and we are all much more similar than we are different.