Biden’s Ukrainian Press Conference Surrenders to Putin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When you listen to a politician, listen closely not to what he says, but what he is desperately trying not to say. Here Biden over Putin a free-pass to enter Ukraine. Yes, he promised sanctions. He did not say that American or NATO troops would respond. He also said that Ukraine would not enter NATO. They need deniability as to why they will not defend Ukraine with military force.

Tucker Carlson Asks Why Does Washington DC Want a War with Russia Over Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 165 Comments

Ukraine is a hot mess and has been ever since the Obama administration stuck their fingers into the internal affairs of the country.  In recent days, the DC administrative state and their corporate stenographers in media have been promoting a position that the U.S. needs to go to war with Russia in defense of Ukraine.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson asks why.  Why does the DC beltway and the crew behind Joe Biden want to create a war with Russia over a nation state that really doesn’t impact U.S. interests?  WATCH:

Putin Could Take All of Europe in the Blink of an Eye – Its Time to be AWAKE – not WOKE


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jan 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The most conservative assessments have been that Putin could be in Paris in less than 30 days. Europe has been more concerned about steering money from defense to Marxist socialism. The net result is that Europe is not really prepared for a conventional war with Russia.

On top of that, this COVID nonsense which has been all about bringing Climate Change and Schwab’s Dreams of Marxism to come true has severely weakened the European economy. Europe has destroyed its bond market and now major US banks, who pulled out of the REPO market with European banks back in August 2019, have now also declined to lend against any European sovereign debt.

This entire Climate Change is also a ploy to facilitate Soros’ dream of his OPEN SOCIETY meaning a One World Government with the United Nations at the helm. The argument is that no single nation can solve climate change and therefore it will take a coordinated effort and nations must surrender sovereignty to the UN. The UN even wants to impose a 10% tax on the entire world.

Meanwhile, people have no idea how critical the energy situation is in Europe. As the environmentalists have been desperately trying to end all fossil fuels BEFORE there is an alternative energy source, they have placed the security of the world in a very serious position. They cannot impose harsh sanctions on Russia because Russia could turn off all the flow of gas to Europe which would starve them out and lead to a major crisis beyond description. As even the Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten reports, one of the last independent German news organizations still standing, Germany has at neat 18 days worth of fuel. How do you threaten Russia with sanctions but then ask please don’t turn off the gas?

Germany has issued a new book entitled “Cooking Without Electricity.” Why issue such a book if there was not a crisis they did not want to really talk about?

While it may appear that Biden’s remarks that a limited incursion into Ukraine will not provide a major response which, as Ukraine has said, is now a Greenlight for Putin to take Eastern Ukrain which is primarily ethnic Russians – not Ukrainian.

From the very beginning, I have warned that Ukraine should have been petitioned to hand the East to Russia because the people there were ethnic Russia – not Ukrainian. I warned back in 2013, that Ukraine may be the most important country to watch. Out model was pointing to Ukraine as the key between East and West. I warned back in 2014 that this was all just political and that Ukraine should have been split based upon language.

These disputes over territory rather than the desires of the people that live there are a throwback to the days of imperialism and empire-building. Those days are long gone. They were based upon the Physiocrats and their theory that the wealth of a nation was its territory – land. It was Adam Smith who countered them with his Wealth of Nations in 1776 that it was not simply land, but the productivity of the nation.

USS Iwo Jima

Nevertheless, twelve ships all set sail from Virginia within 24 hours. The US will not stop a Russian invasion. It is sending naval support as a show of force to not take all of Ukraine.

  1. the USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) class Wasp
  2. the USNS Medgar Evers (T-AKE-13) Lewis and Clark-class
  3. the USNS Zeus (T-ARC-7)
  4. the USS Bataan (LHD 5) class Wasp
  5. The USS Arlington (LPD 24) San Antonio Class
  6. The USS Tripoli (LHA 7)
  7. The USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54) class Arleigh Burke-class Flight I
  8. The USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) class Wasp
  9. The USNS tanker Joshua Humphreys (T-AO-188) Henry J. Kaiser-class
  10. The USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98) class Arleigh Burke-class Flight IIA
  11. The USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) Whidbey Island-class
  12. The USS Carter Hall (LSD 50)

Biden is the most incompetent president we have ever had. This is what they needed to overthrow the US Constitution. His staff has been focused on climate change and taking orders from the World Economic Forum. They have deliberately moved to defund police to create instability so that the people will remain divided and therefore be subservient and not unite against the government.

Even Amazon’s internal documents exposed that the company rates their stores using a “diversity index,” and determined the threat of unionization is “higher” at stores with “lower diversity.” This is what the WOKE movement is all about — DIVIDE & CONQUER! Julius Caesar was able to conquer Gaul despite being outnumbered more than 10 to 1 because the Gauls never united until it was too late. Even in the final battle during September 52 BC, Julius Caesar sealed his fate as a legendary military commander at the Battle of Alesia where his army of 50,000 Romans defeated 200,000 Gauls in what is now modern-day Burgundy, France. The Celtic tribes were never united. Caesar defeated the Belgae tribes as well as the Helvetia. Had they all united, Caesar surely would not have conquered Europe. Hence, keep your opponents divided and you will win. This is the entire object of the woke movement — divide and created hatred between the groups.

This is a major political maxim. The Nazis used this strategy. Divide the people and keep them at each other’s throats, and they will not join together and overthrow the government. This entire WOKE movement t is anti-civilization and it is to raise racism once again. What we need is a NEW movement and call it AWAKE, where all groups realize that they are being used to usher in a whole new Marxist agenda orchestrated by a foreign power at the World Economic Forum. Only if we wake up will people see that the only people to benefit will be those in power who will also eliminate Democracy because they have redefined that as evil populism which brought Trump to power.

Kamala Harris Tries to Clean Up Ukraine Mess, Seriously Cringeworthy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 20, 2022 | Sundance | 260 Comments

The White House occupant created a diplomatic and geopolitical mess yesterday when he said Russia could take a little bit of Ukraine, but not too much.  Jen Psaki then tried to clean it up [LINK].

However, understandably President Zelenskyy and the Ukraine government were apoplectic: “We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones. I say this as the President of a great power.”

Into this mess comes the least qualified person on the planet to cope with it, Kamala Harris.  When questioned this morning about the consequences of such a geopolitical blunder, Harris demanded the media pay attention to her statements not her boss.  WATCH:

Corn Pop Slayer Says It’s Okay if Russia Just Takes a Little Bit More of Ukraine, But Not Too Much


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 19, 2022 | Sundance | 223 Comments

The incoherent mess of jumbled marbles occupying the oval office told everyone today that it’s okay if Russia takes a little piece of Ukraine territory, but not too much – or else it’s curtains for Putin, or something.  WATCH:

Forget Putin for a moment, imagine how Chairman Xi views this against the backdrop of Taiwan.

Longer segment of the response below:

Psaki – Quick, The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 18, 2022 | Sundance | 394 Comments

Pay no attention to gas prices, massive inflation, COVID mess, empty shelves, economic crisis, oil prices, vaccination mandate crisis, testing boondoggles, collapsed polling support, terrorists on the loose, the unprotected border, the legislative mess or creeping socialism folks.

Move along, move along, nothing to see here folks.  Look, over there, shiny things, move along quickly now to see the Russians are coming.  The Russians are coming folks, swear, the Russians are coming.

It takes a lot of water on the floor to make the landlord believe the bathtub overflowed, and not the leaking fish tank in your apartment.

January 6th – Greece v Turkey


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece Re-Posted Jan 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Another January 6th, 2022 important geopolitical event was the rising tension between Turkey and Greece. There has been an arms race between the two which escalated going into the end of 2021. Turkey intensified the arms race when it asked Biden to buy 40 F-16 fighter jets to upgrade its Air Force. The move coincides with the recent deal struck by Greece to acquire France Rafale jets and frigates. These two nations hate each other since when Xerces invaded Greece and was defeated and then Alexander the Great conquered Babylon. The tensions go back thousands of years but then Turkey became Muslim and now the clash remains also between Christianity and Islam.

In 1453, the Ottoman Turks captured the Byzantine capital of Constantinople ending the Roman Empire for good. That completed their conquest of this once mighty empire and today we call what was Anatolia Turkey. That established the Ottoman Empire. For the next 400 years, Greece was ruled by the Turks, but Greece always resented their occupation given the history back to Xerxes and Alexander the Great. There were many failed uprisings against Turkish rule over the centuries.

In fact, it took just 28 years for the Greeks to stage their first revolt in 1481. The first uprising took place on the Mani peninsula in 1481, when Korkodeilos Kladas and the fierce Mani fighters rose up against the Ottomans. In 1711, the all-powerful Tsar of Russia, Peter the Great, issued a proclamation calling upon the Greek people to revolt. In truth, the Greeks took up arms against the Ottomans 123 separate times before 1821 and the great war.

It was 1821 when the Greeks launched a rebellion that would develop into the Greek War of Independence. With the help of Britain, France, and Russia, the Greeks gained their independence from the Turks in 1832. However, the new Greek nation only included a relatively small part of European Greek lands. There remained a large Greek population in mainland Turkey, former Anatolia from ancient times. This fact led Greece to constantly seek to re-take more land from the Ottoman Turks. Multiple wars between Greece and Turkey unfolded, and local Greek rebellions with the support of the Greek government were becoming the norm.

Greek Epirus Revolt of 1854, in which Greek military officers aided the rebels in the Ottoman province of Epirus. This was also part of the larger Crimean War, and the Turks defeated these rebels. The Greek population of the large island of Crete launched many revolts against Turkish rule. There were the Greek Cretan Revolts of 1841, 1858, 1866-1868, 1875-1878, and 1889. All were defeated by the Turks.

A new revolt on Crete broke out in 1896 which led to the Second Greco-Turkish War which is also called the “Thirty Days’ War” of 1897. The Ottoman army re-organized with the help of German advisors. That enabled them to easily defeat the unprepared Greek military. Greece had to surrender some border areas in the peace treaty and were forced to pay heavy reparations to the Turks.

Nevertheless, there was the Cretan revolt, which continued until 1898. That at least forced the Turks to remove their military from the island and set up an autonomous Cretan State, which, while still under Ottoman rule, but was nominally self-governing.

Next came the First Balkan War (October, 1912-May 30, 1913), in which Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Montenegro all combined forces to defeat the Turks. They almost conquered all of the Ottoman Empire’s remaining lands in Europe. This is when Crete became officially part of Greece ending the Third Greco-Turkish War.

This was followed by the Fourth Greco-Turkish War (1921-1922) which defeated the Ottoman Empire in World War One. Greek troops participated in the Allied occupation of large parts of Ottoman Turkey. This is when with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Greece launched a full invasion of Turkey. The goal was to re-establish all the former Greek-speaking lands into the modern Green nation.

51.6 years later, the tension rose again this time forming the Greek-Turkish Conflict Over Cyprus in 1974. This became a full-scale war between Greece and Turkey. In 1974, the island-nation of Cyprus was engulfed in conflict when a coup overthrew the government with the goal of joining Cyprus with its Greek majority population with Greece. Turkey invaded northern Cyprus and set up a separate Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a “nation” that only Turkey recognizes.

Tensions began to rise with the 2020.05 turning point on the Economic Confidence Model. These tensions are at their highest since 1974 and it looks like war is inevitable once again. Turkish President Erdogan’s re-conversion of the Hagia Sophia to a place of Muslim worship enraged many Greeks, which only exacerbated the economic competition for the oil and gas in the seabed near Cyprus. As the Greek and Turkish militaries face off at sea and in the air on a routine basis.

Here we also have a convergence of many cycles. The next 51.6-year cycle from 1974 events brings us directly to the period of rising risk of international war starting in 2025-2027 time period. This insane climate change policy that is deliberately driving up fuel prices around the world is crushing the third world and there people have far less risk in the face of war compared to the developed industrial nations.

The problem we have is as the economy turns down because of this absurd COVID nonsense that has wiped out tourism, a major income source for Greece and Turkey, hotels are closing and people are unemployed. This increases the tensions for war.

Kazakhstan – NATO & The ECM into 2032


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jan 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There is a confrontation in the wind. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister and special negotiator in the US-Russia talks in Geneva, bluntly states that NATO can no longer “push” Russia to a minor role in European and international politics. NATO must return to the borders of 1997. Russia is blaming the US for the uprising in Kazakhstan. If we look at the NATO borders, we can see how Russia is concerned.

In 1949, there were 12 founding members of NATO including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Additional nations were added as follows: Greece and Turkey in 1952, Germany in 1955, Spain in 1982, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, Albania and Croatia in 2009 and Montenegro in 2017. Therefore, pushing the border back to 1997 means NATO must vacate Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro.

In Kazakhstan, at the beginning of the year, a sudden doubling in the prices of the LPG in Kazakhstan ignited riots within the nation that is renowned for its oil reserves and financial stability. Kazakhstan is one of the largest oil reserves on the planet. Still, riots started as a result of a hike in prices of LPG at the beginning of the year 2022. Protests expanded and soon turned into violence which in turn led to the destruction of government and private properties along with the loss of many lives. As a result, On January 5th, 2022 the Government of Kazakhstan resigned right on our target date of January 6th, 2022 but had no effect on the agitation. As a result, the Government resigned but the protest is still not under control. Chaos expanded and led to further unnecessary loss of lives and property. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev asked for help from Russia as he was unable to handle the situation inside the country.

Kazakhstan is strategically important for its oil reserves. It’s critically as important to Russia and even more so than Belarus or Ukraine. Russia and Kazakhstan have the largest continuous land border on planet earth. Kazakhstan has had a very stable economy. Thus the doubling of energy has seriously destabilized the country and this is something the globalists may have cheered thinking they can usher in the Great Reset and end energy production there, but their grand plan will fail. The energy crisis has also ignited the old religious tensions that we subdued thanks to economics. But destabilize the economy and old wounds arise.

A significant fraction of the country’s 19 million residents are Christian Russians – one-quarter of the population of Kazakhstan is ethnic Russians. During the days of the Soviet Union, Russians migrated to various parts that included Kazakhstan as well as Eastern Ukraine. Russia has an obligation to protect Russian in Kazakhstan more so than Ukraine because they are a religious minority in a Muslim country which is significantly different from just land claims in Ukraine and NATO expansion.

There has been an underlying Kazakh nationalist movement centered on religion for they are virtually all Muslim. They oppose the Orthodox-Christian Russian minority and Russia for that matter. The general concern is that a civil war in Kazakhstan would result in an anti-Russian ethnic cleansing rooted in religion. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev who tried to appease the mob ordered the governors to return the price controls. Unlike Ukraine where Yanukovich could not even speak proper Ukrainian, here the president is Muslim.

In this case, a religious war in Kazakhstan would send refugees pouring into Russia which again is not the case in Ukraine. Kazakhstan just so happens to be also the heart of the Soviet space program and it develops its S-550 ABM system critical to its national security for Russia also extracts Uranium from Kazakhstan for its nuclear fuel.

This is strikingly different from the Ukrainian revolution which was over corruption. Here in Kazakhstan, there is an underlying religious tension mixed with national security. On January 6th, 2022, Britain warned Moscow that it was working with Western partners on high-impact sanctions targetting Russia’s financial sector should it invade Ukraine. But this was the precise fall of the Kazakhstan government. These dates are always amazing to me. To watch how events happen to the very day.

For example, the Economic Confidence Model also marked the very day of the high on July 20th, 1998 in the US share market from which the Long-Term Capital Management crash began in September. The 1987 turning point picked the very day of the crash and confirmed the low and the capital flow shift which resulted in selling US assets repatriating cash to Japan creating the Bubble on the peak of that wave in 1989.95.

However, sometimes these turning points have been the opposite whereas the geopolitical or economic event comes first and the markets respond secondly to those events in the aftermath.

There have been many events both economically and geopolitically which have aligned with the Economic Confidence Model. There are people who just hate it and try desperately to dismiss this model out of hand because it confirms that any attempt to manipulate the economy by socialists will always fail.

Anyone who attempts to argue against the existence of any business cycle is typically someone who supports the government against the people in true Marxist fashion. Even Paul Volcker’s rare book from 1977 entitled The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle bluntly confirmed that Keynesian economics failed because it was supposed to eliminate recessions and depressions.

The peak in 1998 started the Long Term Capital Management Crisis and the first time the Federal Reserve stepped in to bail out a Hedge Fund to save the banks. Even the 911 famous attack on the World Trade Center took place on a specific turning point in 2001.695 to the very day. Not all wars begin precisely on this model, it may reflect when the combination of trends forms to create the decision to go to war which may predate the event by months or years. It is difficult to determine that instant of a decision, but clearly, war unfolds as the result of some trend set in motion previously.

The 2007 turning point picked the very day of the high in the real estate market and began the Great Crash that unleashed perpetual quantitative easing. The very day that Greece applied to the IMF beginning the European debt crisis took place on a precise day in the ECM – April 16, 2020. This was the very same position one which the 911 attack took place which resulted in not only the invasion of Iraq, but it altered our way of life forever having to be X-rayed to get on a plane.

While the peak of the wave 2015.75 marked the peak in government and the start of the Big Bang which is the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are now in following 2014 when the ECB moved to negative interest rates, that was certainly reflected by the peak in bond markets and the ultimate destruction of European sovereign debt which is why they now desperately need this Great Reset.

This target 2015.75 also marked the very day of Russia troops arriving in Syria which began the refugee crisis into Europe. Merkel’s unilateral decision to allow in the refugees set in motion the rising separatist movements in Europe. TheWashington Times wrote on September 10, 2015,“Angela Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany despite rising anti-immigrant movement.” Her decision illustrated that a single leader could alter the course of Europe denying everyone else the right to even vote on her policy.

Then the following year 2016 brought BREXIT and the election of Donald Trump which most people still fail to understand why he was elected. Trump beat all career politicians fulfilling what our model projected back in 1985 that the 2016 election would be the first time a potential third party would take the White House.

Nigel Farage was our keynote speaker at the WEC in Rome in 2019 and said we were the only one to forecast BREXIT would win. But we had also forecast at the start of this wave in 1985.65 that the first opportunity for a 3rd Party type candidate would win the White House was our Pi target from there which was 2017.05 the very day Donald Trump became president.

We also warned that the 2015.75 turning point would be the beginning of the great shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE and that we would see real estate decline in real terms in the urban centers and rise in the suburban centers just as that pattern has appeared many times throughout history and even market the decline and fall of the Roman Empire.

Then the bottom of this ECM wave was more than the Trump Impeachment trial began on the turning point and a constitutional crisis in Russia that will allow Putin to stay in office indefinitely. It was the beginning of the COVID Pandemic scam. That marked the start of the COVID Crash into the March 2020 low.

Going back in time we find that the turning point in 1934.05 marked the confiscation of gold whereas the 1985 turning point marked the birth of the G5 and the organized attempt to manipulate the dollar lower. We have the last three waves of that 51.6-year sequences mark the new adoption of socialism following Karl Marx in the USA. This was the beginning of the “progressive” movement which led to the birth of the income tax by 1913.

January 6th, 2022 will go down in history as another important turning point. This is not just about Kazakhstan, this appears to be shaping up as the start of a major confrontation.

With respect to Ukraine, on March 1, 2014 (2014.164), the Russian government approved the invasion of Ukraine. That came on the Cycle of War Model which has been rather consistent. However, Russia then came to the aid of Syria precisely on the date of the Economic Confidence Model – 2015.75.

In addition, the ECM plotted from the Cuban Missile Crisis also targeted 2014.39 as the beginning of a new period of direct confrontation. That too pointed to 2014 and the period for the shift in geopolitical trend.

That was met with Obama imposing sanctions on Russia which was absurd. The idea that putting on sanctions will force the people to overthrow their government has never worked because the people know the enemy is not their own government but external. That boosted Putin’s polls.

Following January 6, 2022, which is the Ukrainian ECM, the next target to pay attention will be March 14th, 2022, the April 10th target that may be aligned with the French elections, and then we have October 5/6, 2022 which is 8.6 years from the 2014 turning point on the War Cycle and the Cuban Missile Model.

We are entering a very primal phase where society will be tested to the brink as this period of authoritarianism rises into 2032. The inflation also began in target with the turning point of 2020.05 as has been the rise in civil unrest. Governments are collapsing and they can no longer keep the monetary system going as they once did. This is why they are becoming authoritarian using COVID to scare people into compliance. Civil Unrest will rise because no amount of protesting will divert governments from this Great Reset. Thus, we will be faced with a global revolution post-2032 and a completely new form of government will be on the table. It is up to us to make sure that is for freedom and to not rob our posterity of the freedom we once knew when growing up.

President Biden Pledges to Provide Billions in Economic Benefit to Russia Through the Build Back Better Climate Change Program


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 7, 2021 | Sundance | 87 Comments

Many Americans have no idea that Russia is an OPEC member.  Even fewer recognize that Russia’s primary economic export is energy via oil and gas.  Oil and gas exports drive the Russian economy.  Any U.S. policy that drives up the value of oil and gas directly enhances the economy and influence of Russia.

Thanks to Joe Biden’s specific energy policy shutting down U.S. energy exploration, Russia’s economy is booming and has made billions more in the sales of high priced oil and natural gas into Europe and the global marketplace.  That increased oil and gas revenue is directly responsible for Russia’s ability to expand militarily in the region.

So when it comes to threats, like Russia annexing even more of Ukraine as a strategic objective…. Joe Biden is strengthening Russia on one hand and threatening the strength of Russia with the other.  Russian President Vladimir Putin sees this with clear eyes.

Meanwhile the NATO partners who *claim* to be worried about Russia (they’re really not) are the same nations that are buying the oil and gas from Russia.   This was the ridiculous economic dynamic President Trump confronted when he challenged NATO on their energy and national security policies.   Tucker Carlson discusses this:

Biden’s Build Back Better – Selling Out America


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Nov 11, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Congress passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, and then the new American Communist press shifted their focus immediately to the Democratic legislation known as the Build Back Better Act. That bill includes a host of progressive priorities such as paid family and sick leave, public housing, child care, and universal preschool. Add to that $550 billion aimed at fighting climate change. To get this through, they need absolutely every Democratic vote. Once again, they are trying to bribe people for votes. It would be far better to eliminate taxation and stop borrowing from people interest-free and pretending to be Santa Claus by giving back their own money as a refund.

Half that money is for the Gates’ climate change agenda. He has his money safely tucked away in a fake foundation he uses for power-monopoly play. Everyone else will be devastated by the tax increases, but he will be untouched. They will lower the standard of living with all the new regulations and criminal prosecutions on environmental theories.