DNC Lowers Fundraiser Prices Amid Harris’ Low Approval Ratings


Armstrong economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Kamala Harris has done nothing to improve the lives of Americans during her time as vice president. It comes as no surprise that her approval rating is between 39% and 35.5%, depending on what poll you view. Harris is so unpopular that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had to postpone their Women’s Leadership Forum that Harris was due to headline because they did not sell enough tickets. This indicates Harris is falling out of favor with her main support base — Democratic women.

Furthermore, Democrats expected people to shell out $15,000 to take their picture with the vice president. After some self-reflecting, the DNC will charge only $5,000 for a photo op with the unpopular vice president.

At least twelve staff members have left her office in the past two years after describing Kamala as “abusive” and “toxic.” Some former staff members said they are “terrified at the thought of her becoming president.” Her abusive treatment of staff members matches the apathy she shows to the American public in her interviews. One staff member said that being around Kamala left them with “a sense of paranoia in that office that you never knew when she was going to snap at you.” Biden may be losing his mind, but Kamala does not seem mentally stable either.

German Economic Minister Announces Restart of Coal Power Plants for Electricity Due to NATO Sanctions and German Dependence on Russian Oil and Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2022 | Sundance

To say the recent remarks from German Economic and Climate Minister Robert Habeck showcase the stupidity of the western sanctions would be an understatement.  In a broad energy policy announcement to the German people, Minister Habeck has announced that natural gas is now urgently being stored and built up in order to survive next winter.

Additionally, the German parliament is being called into emergency session to re-write climate laws allowing coal-fired electricity power plants to be brought back on-line.  Essentially, years of German renewable energy investments and initiatives are now being reversed in order to maintain the commitment to NATO sanctions against Russia.

You can read the full translated remarks HERE.  Some of the more stunning excerpts are below.

GERMANY – Minister Robert Habeck […] “The situation on the gas market has deteriorated in recent days. The missing quantities can still be replaced, and the gas storage tanks are still being filled, albeit at high prices. Security of supply is currently guaranteed. But the situation is serious. We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to reduce gas consumption. 

[…] In order to reduce gas consumption, less gas is to be used to produce electricity. Instead, coal-fired power plants will have to be used more. […] That means, to be honest, more coal-fired power plants for a transitional period. That’s bitter, but in this situation it’s almost necessary to reduce gas consumption. We must and we will do everything we can to store as much gas as possible in summer and autumn. The gas storage tanks must be full in winter. That has top priority, ”said Habeck. (read full remarks)

In order to unbuckle themselves from dependence on Russian pipelines, Habeck also announced that floating Liquified Natural Gas terminals will have to be created so they can source LNG from other nations.   Currently Germany has no port system to offload LNG, they will be purchasing and leasing floating ships to act as LNG terminals.

I am reminded of the prior warning to Germany from U.S. President Donald Trump.  It’s worth remembering that U.S. media blasted President Trump for being so brutally honest in his NATO remarks where he warned about the danger of Germany being so dependent on Russia for oil and gas.  WATCH:

15 DeceptiCons Vote to Close Debate on Senate Gun Control Legislation, An Important One Was Permitted to Hide


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2022 | Sundance

In 2006 we originally faced 20 DeceptiCons in the Senate.  They represent the right wing of the DC Congressional UniParty.  Having removed a few, and some of them died (McCain, Cochran) there are still 16 of them in office.  They are led by Mitch McConnell.

This is the same crew who vehemently opposed the nomination of Donald Trump for office.  These are the same republican senators who aligned against the Tea Party and later against the MAGA movement represented by our efforts to put Donald Trump into office.  These are the DeceptiCons we have been discussing for 16 years.  However, these are also a very sneaky bunch – notice how McConnell’s #2, John Thune, was permitted to avoid the DeceptiCon sunlight.

Today the DeceptiCons [Blunt (MO), Burr (NC), Capito (WV), Cassidy (LA), Collins (ME), Cornyn (TX), Ernst (IA), Graham (SC), McConnell (KY), Murkowski (AK), Portman (OH), Romney (UT), Tillis (NC), Toomey (PA) and Young (IN)] voted to shut down debate on the democrat senate firearm restriction and confiscation bill.  The vote to invoke cloture shuts down debate and ends the opportunity for a filibuster.  Invoking cloture, ie voting to support cloture, is a vote in support of the bill.

WASHINGTON DC – […] Ahead of the vote, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Senate could pass the final bill as soon as Thursday with GOP cooperation. However, if any one of the 100 senators objects, final passage could occur as late as Friday night, briefly delaying the chamber’s planned two-week recess.

“We are not going to leave until we pass this bill,” Schumer said. “This is not a cure-all for all the ways gun violence affects our nation, but it is a long overdue step in the right direction. It’s significant, it’s going to save lives, and it’s my intention to get it done as soon as we can.”

The gun safety legislation amounts to Congress’ most significant response to mass shootings in nearly 30 years. The package, negotiated by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), comes about one month after a gunman killed 19 children and two teachers in Uvalde, Texas.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said Thursday the timing on final passage depended on whether the chamber would vote on amendments to the package. Republicans can drag the bill out if they don’t get the votes they are requesting because any quick action requires unanimous consent.

“As of right now there’s a very serious interest in at least some small amount” of amendments, Thune said. Cornyn agreed that his “bias is in favor of amendments.” (read more)

Mitch McConnell is the Machiavellian manipulator of the senate.  Notice how McConnell provides cover for John Thune who did not vote to support cloture?

Do not be fooled.  McConnell is grooming Thune to replace him and maintain the Wall Street/Donor system.

Senator John Thune is the DeceptiCon insurance policy to maintain power in the upper chamber after the 2022 mid-terms.

Watch Thune.

Manufacturing Index Drops Far Below Expectations – Biggest Single Month Drop Since 2020 Pandemic Impact


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2022 | Sundance

U.S. inflation was/is driven by supply side impacts as a result of policy (Build Back Better).  The U.S. recession was/is now driven by demand side impacts that are the result of increased supply side costs.  This is the natural economic truth being denied by all levels of political leadership.

Joe Biden policy makers, specifically the U.S. treasury secretary and the federal reserve chairman, have claimed -falsely- that current inflation was/is being driven by demand. In essence, and ironically, their position means consumers are to blame for high prices.  This has been their story and they have stuck to it.  However, remember monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy.  Monetary policy cannot impact the supply side, that aspect is led by Joe Biden policy.

The Federal reserve, having denied (pretended) the supply side causation, has effectively raised interest rates (0.75%) into an economic environment where consumer demand was already contracting.  CTH has been asserting this fundamental position all year.   Here is the evidence:

US Manufacturing PMI fell dramatically to 52.4 in June 2022 from 57 in May.  This drop is well below the market and economic expectations of 56, and now points to the slowest growth and steepest drop in factory activity in almost two years.  Contractions in output and new orders are pushing the index down.

Production and new sales declined for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in mid-2020 driven by weak consumer demand.  Inflation and a drop in wholesale and retail purchases have lowered purchase orders.  The gears inside the economy are slowing to a halt.

Look at the PMI trendline and you can clearly see what we have been discussing on these pages since March of 2021.   Consumer demand has been dropping in direct proportion to the dramatic rise in inflation (consumer prices).

At the exact moment that U.S. inflation began spiking in housing, energy, fuel and food, consumer demand for non-essential purchases, durable goods, started dropping.  This is a natural outcome that mirrors your own experience in checkbook economics.

When food, fuel and energy cost you more, you stop buying stuff and start prioritizing.

Following the path of the “build back better” agenda, the U.S. version called “Green New Deal,” meant the Biden administration had to continue denying that any demand side contraction was taking place.   However, it is clear from the indexes under the control of purchasing managers that orders for factory goods have been dropping.

The same is true on the services side of the PMI.  Demand for services are being prioritized, and demand for non-essential services are dropping.

The U.S. economy is contracting.  Denial abounds.

FXStreet – The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI plunged to 52.4 (flash) in June from 57 in May, missing the market expectation of 56 by a wide margin. This report revealed that the business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a much weaker pace in early June than it did in May.

Further details of the publication revealed that the Composite PMI declined to 51.2 from 53.6, compared to analysts’ estimate of 53.7.

Commenting on the data, “the pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. (more)

The White House will blame Russia.

Supreme Court Rejects New York Special Need Limitation on Carrying a Firearm, Affirms Inherent Right to Carry


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2022 | Sundance

In a 6-3 ruling [pdf HERE] the Supreme Court has ruled that New York state cannot require an individual to prove a “special need” in order to carry a firearm for self-protection.  The ruling, likely to have ramifications for other gun restricting states, affirms the constitutional right of an individual to carry a firearm, and blocks the efforts of states to make the individual prove they have a need for one.

Writing the majority decision Justice Clarence Thomas concluded there was no historical requirement that law-abiding citizens show the kind of special need for self-defense required by the New York law to carry a gun in public. Indeed, as Thomas wrote, there is “no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need.”  [Ruling Here]

SCOTUS BLOG – The state law at the heart of New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen required anyone who wants to carry a concealed handgun outside the home to show “proper cause” for the license. New York courts interpreted that phrase to require applicants to show more than a general desire to protect themselves or their property. Instead, applicants must demonstrate a special need for self-defense – for example, a pattern of physical threats. Several other states, including California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, impose similar restrictions, as do many cities. (read more)

Leftists, particularly those who have recently become drunk on power from their COVID dictates, are apoplectic about the supreme court limiting the power of government to control the constitutional rights of the individual.  It’s quite remarkable to watch the far-left lash out against the institution that has the role in our government to protect the constitution.

Unemployment Expected to Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jun 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Jerome Powell recently admitted that combating inflation will lead to rising unemployment. Powell admitted that to establish price stability, the labor market will need to take a hit. “I would characterize that, if you were to get inflation down to, YOU KNOW, on its way down to 2 percent and the unemployment rate went up to 4.1 percent, that’s still a historically low level. We hadn’t seen-we hadn’t seen rates, unemployment rates below 4 percent until a couple years ago for, we’d seen it for like one year in the last 50. So, the idea that 3.6 percent is historically low in the last century. So, a 4.1 percent unemployment rate with inflation well on its way to 2 percent, I think that would be, I think that would be a successful outcome. So, we’re not looking to have a higher unemployment rate, but I would say that I would certainly look at that as a successful outcome,” Powell admitted.

The Fed Chairman said that they would “love” to return to the labor market that we experienced pre-pandemic when unemployment was at a historic low of 3.5%, and wage growth surpassed inflation. That is but a dream. “We’re not, again, we’re not, we don’t seek to put people out of work, of course, we never think too many people are working and fewer people need to have jobs, but we also think that you really cannot have the kind of labor market we want without price stability,” he admitted. The pandemic and COVID restrictions has ruined the US job market for many years to come.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers weighed in on the topic recently but was blunter with his message. “We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation – in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment,” Summers said while speaking in London.

That would indicate an immediate 1.4% decline in employment within the next few months on the low end of his estimate. Another 75 basis point rate hike is not off the table for July as the Fed has become hawkish in reversing its failed policies. Regardless, the US workforce is expected to take a big hit in the near future due to fiscal and policy mismanagement. The cost of basic necessities is rising, housing is unaffordable, and countless people will lose their jobs. The worst is yet to come.

The Fed v Congress


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Powell addressed Congress on Wednesday to curb inflation fears. The Fed is stuck between a rock and hard place right now as some must lose in order for the situation to improve. Not one to mince words, Sen. John Kennedy said, “We got a hell of a mess right now. You’re the most powerful man in the United States, maybe in the world.”

As I have mentioned, the Federal Reserve cannot combat inflation on its own. During his testimony, outspoken Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren indicated that she is utterly clueless about how government policy is damaging the economy. “Rate hikes won’t make Vladimir Putin turn his tanks around and leave Ukraine,” Warren uttered. Rate hikes also won’t prevent the US government from spending billions of dollars on a proxy war in Ukraine. “You know what’s worse than high inflation and low unemployment? It’s high inflation with a recession and millions of people out of work,” Warren stated. “I hope you consider that before you drive this economy off a cliff.”

The Biden Administration has already driven the economy off a cliff. The central bank is merely trying to heal an already injured economy with a limited medical kit. Elizabeth Warren and other “progressives” touted lockdowns and cheered as the unemployment rate rose to historical highs. They forced businesses to close, many permanently, but now suddenly seem concerned that unemployment will rise once again.

Powell admitted that rate hikes will not combat the soaring costs of groceries and gas. The Biden Administration reversed all measures that made America energy independent, and the supply chain problem is also completely out of the hands of the Fed. The situation will not improve until the US government aligns its objectives to support domestic policy, and that is something I do not foresee happening under a Democratic leader.

Tucker Carlson Calls Out the Right Wing of the UniParty Vulture


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2022 | Sundance 

Oh, there’s so much that could be said about this… so much.  However, what Tucker Carlson outlines in this monologue is accurate insofar as it merely scratches the surface of the DeceptiCons in Washington DC. {Direct Rumble LinkWATCH:

The UniParty issue does not start in Washington DC, it surfaces in Washington DC.

The UniParty agenda, the origin of the crap that we see surface in a toxically corrupt federal government, starts IN YOUR STATE.

The UniParty is an outcome of the private organizations that run the political parties known as the RNC and DNC.  This is where almost all voters and political followers get lost.  The Republican and Democrat parties are not affiliated with any construct of the United States government.  They are private entities, private clubs, that can establish any set of rules and regulations for the people within the club/party.   That’s where the origin of the feces begins.

The club can accept or deny membership for any person who wants to run for political office.  The RNC and DNC clubs essentially select the politicians.  There is nothing within this process that is even remotely democratic, representative or even visible in the framework of the U.S. constitution.

Private corporations known as the RNC and DNC run the professional political apparatus, and from that origination all of the corruption in the body politic -as outlined in the visible UniParty agenda- surfaces.   Two clubs, both funded by Wall Street power brokers, globalists and ultra-rich mega-donors, select the members who will represent their interests in Washington DC.   That’s the root of the issue.

The Republican National Committee (RNC), and the Democrat National Committee (DNC), are private clubs.

The RNC and DNC are corporations, private businesses; and just like all private businesses, they have the ability to make rules, bylaws, terms and conditions of membership and association that are completely arbitrary according to their charter.

The RNC and DNC are not entities of government.  The RNC and DNC are not affiliates of government.  The RNC and DNC have absolutely no connection to government, other than their arbitrary business model for helping politicians enter and remain within government.

In fact, the RNC and DNC are simply private corporations who engage in the business of politics.  Whenever we start to forget the DNC and RNC are private corporations, we can slip into the mistaken belief that they operate on any form of baseline altruism.

These corporations exist for the fulfillment of their mission; and their mission is to use the business of politics as a method of financial reward to sustain the business model.

Some call these private entities, these corporations, “clubs,” because using that term helps to remind us that these groups do not operate without a private agenda.

The rules within the RNC club are determined by the people who control the club charter, primarily large donors who fund the corporate business.  If they have a particular intent or direction, they wish the club to support or take, they control how the club engages in the process of achieving their outcome.  That effort is taken regardless of the opinion from the subordinate members in the club.

Through the process of controlling the corporations, the private clubs, both the RNC and DNC control how political events take place.  Nothing within this process is contingent upon the support of the voting electorate.

Each state and local precinct has their own chapter of the club, and often the corporate direction, specifically the club activity in/around Washington DC, is different from what the local groups want to see take place.  However, just because the local chapter of the group disagrees with the parent company or board of directors, does not mean the larger corporate entity will change anything.

When we are evaluating political events inside the United States, it is critical to keep reminding ourselves that what is taking place, or what is not taking place, are outcomes determined within the executive suites of a private club.   This is an unfortunate system dynamic, but it is a critical point that once fully understood explains many of the issues people have with the registered politicians within the club.

The RNC and DNC are businesses.  Their decisions are business decisions.  The club actions, or lack thereof, are all part of the business of politics.

The tenured participants in the club do not operate arbitrarily in a vacuum.  They talk to each other, communicate with each other, organize with each other, plan with each other, and collaborate for the larger objectives of the private corporation.

Nothing within the business system of DC and club politics has anything to do with the constitutional framework of U.S. government.

Again, for emphasis.  The governing process and constitutional aspects of the framework within the U.S. government, have absolutely nothing to do with the two private corporations known as the RNC and DNC.

A potato farmer has no influence on McDonalds, despite the fact the fast food corporation sells french fries.

Please keep this reference point in mind.

Build Back Better Inflation Hits 7.7 Percent in Canada and 9.1 Percent in U.K.


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 22, 2022 | Sundance

Yes, inflation is global; mostly.  That’s because all of the western governments and their central banks followed the exact same pandemic lockdown & spending instructions from the World Economic Forum.

The plan -as outlined publicly, was for government leaders to lockdown the economic activity (supply side), then spend to subsidize and fill the losses in economic activity (demand side), then reopen the economies using the Build Back Better agenda as a reset moving the underlying energy economy away from fossil fuels.

This was the collective plan, and they all followed the exact same playbook.  This is the origin of inflation.  The BBB plan disrupted the supply side, then triggered a reopening of the demand side while the supply remained scarce.  Simultaneous to the reopening, all former energy development processes were no longer supported by investment or policy.

In the aftermath, the energy sector was fractured and combined with higher costs for the production of all goods, that’s what is continuing this upward inflation spiral.

CANADA – Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 7.7% in May, the highest since January 1983, on gasoline prices, as well as services like hotels and restaurants, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.  Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the annual rate to rise to 7.4% in May from 6.8% in April. (read more)

U.K. – Soaring food prices pushed British consumer price inflation to a 40-year high of 9.1% last month, the highest rate out of the Group of Seven countries and one which underlines the severity of the country’s cost-of-living crunch.

The reading was up from 9.0% in April and matched the consensus of a Reuters poll of economists. Records from the Office for National Statistics show May’s inflation was the highest since March 1982 – and worse is likely to come. (read more)

The rate of individual nation inflation is directly related to the scale of the individual government spending in proportion to the size of their economy.

Food inflation has been bad all year.  However, the third wave of food inflation is still 60 to 90 days away, and that wave from the field will be double the first two waves once it reaches the stores.

Supply side inflation, primarily driven by increases in energy costs, continues flowing through the global and domestic supply chain as reflected in the producer price index.  However, demand side inflation is no longer attached to durable goods.  Demand for non-essential goods and services has dropped as housing, food, fuel and energy costs are now the priority.

Prepare your affairs accordingly.

Former DNC Rising Star, Florida Gubernatorial Candidate and CNN Contributor Andrew Gillum, Indicted on Federal Fraud and Conspiracy Charges


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 22, 2022 | Sundance

Andrew Gillum was the 2018 Democrat candidate for Florida Governor who came within a few thousand votes of winning the race.  He was hired as a CNN contributor.  a few months later he was found by police, naked, high on drugs and incapacitated in a hotel room with male prostitutes in Miami.

Today, Andrew Gillum was indicted on 21 charges of corruption, bribery, conspiracy, wire-fraud and soliciting campaign contributions for personal use.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Andrew Gillum, the 2018 Democratic nominee for Florida governor, has been indicted on 21 federal charges including conspiracy and wire fraud for funneling donations through third parties back to himself for personal use, prosecutors said Wednesday.

The U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Florida said Gillum, 42, is also charged with making false statements to the Federal Bureau of Investigation for claiming he didn’t receive or ask for anything from two undercover agents posing as developers. The undercover agents offered gifts and money in exchange for support for projects.

Sharon Janet Lettman-Hicks, 53 and the owner of a communications company, is a codefendant on the wire fraud charges for funneling money to Gillum in the form of paychecks, U.S. Attorney Jason R. Coody said in a statement.

Prosecutors said the pair “conspired to commit wire fraud, by unlawfully soliciting and obtaining funds from various entities and individuals through false and fraudulent promises and representations that the funds would be used for a legitimate purpose.”

[…]  Gillum met with undercover FBI agents posing as developers while he was mayor and during his campaign for governor. His associates sought donations from the agents, and suggested ways to provide money without listing them as political contributions, including paying for a fundraising dinner, according to the indictment.

The agents were asked to contribute $100,000 to Gillum’s campaign and said the money could be given to a private company in order to keep the agents’ names out of campaign finance documents. The agents said they would want favorable consideration on development projects and were told that wouldn’t be a problem, according to the indictment.

The agents also met with Gillum in New York City and paid for his hotel, food and drink, a boat ride and a ticket to see “Hamilton,” according to the indictment.

Later, other FBI agents interviewed Gillum and asked if he had contact with the undercover agents. Gillum told them that he never asked for or received anything from the “developers,” and stopped communicating with them after they tried to link contributions to support for their projects, the indictment said.

An individual not named in the indictment donated $250,000 to Gillum’s political committee, but only $100,000 was put toward the campaign. Gillum and Lettman-Hicks said most of the remaining money was going to a voter education program, knowing the service wouldn’t be provided, according to the indictment. (read more)