Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted Jan 25, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, The last few days I’ve been remotely attending the 2019 WEC Orlando. Lo and behold, now? three months hence and six days into the new wave?I am simply astounded at hearing how you describe your own amazement with the global confluence of events occurring absolutely everywhere while also curious whether there is merely one event telltale to the Jan. 18/19 hand-off. Then, the Wuhan coronavirus breaks out big today and market graphs everywhere all hop on the toboggan to end the week. How did you ever do it?! You’re truly a man of a thousand graces and I, for one, could not be more grateful.
Breaking the WEC to stay current with the latest today, it has been conspicuously absent for me to have yet encountered the term “Black Swan” regarding this Wuhan event. Then, it occurred to me: The term itself is a bit Johnny-come-lately and would not surprise me one bit it has flown the coop over maybe most could be seeking an oil of veracity through Socrates to throw on all these choppy waters.
It would be most interesting to see the traffic stats for AE and Socrates when such events as these take off.
In Gratitude!
D. D.
REPLY: What you have to understand and why I am often so critical of analysis, is that real analysis does NOT begin with a predetermined conclusion. What I am trying to reveal and why I put the very sources of what I have read into books like the Manipulating the World Economy, is because the proper way of analysis is exploration. I have sought perhaps like Leonardo DaVinci to figure out how things actually work without some predetermined agenda. DaVinci dug up dead bodies to try to discover how we function.
All the research I have done is in that vein. So it is me trying to show the world, hey look at this! My opinions and beliefs have been shaped by what I have encountered. I have never looked at research to prove a predetermined idea. That is where everyone goes wrong. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was hated by Keynes and so many others BECAUSE they do not like the way the world economy functions, and they seek to manipulate it to perform as they desire. That is why economics is no longer a science but has degenerated into a political propaganda machine.
People judge me by everyone else. This turn in the Economic Confidence Model is not about me being right, wrong, smarter than everyone else, or any other personal critique. This is about how the world truly functions and everything from weather to disease plays a role right down to this coronavirus which I am running our models to try to ascertain will this be a cyclical pandemic, or an epidemic – a big difference!
All of my research has been a quest to understand how the world truly functions. It has always been:
Hey, take a look at this! Here is order hidden behind the mask of chaos!
Every single action has an equal and opposite reaction. This is why I taught Socrates how to look for patterns and how to analyze those patterns. I have warned that the 2020 election will be notorious and will mark a rise in violence. People are unwilling to accept the vote of the people. If they lose, they blamed Russia for everything. Democracy is dying along with civility. I am not interested in being right, I wish I was wrong.
We are faced with the collapse in Democracy our model forecast back in 1985 would begin 2015.75. Politicians like Adam Schiff are the poster child for absolute corruption and dishonesty. This type of behavior has never been seen and is merely an attempt to put a Democrat in the White House who will raise taxes and devastate the business community in the spirit of “progressiveness” which is the new politically correct label for Marxism.
This is all part of the decline and fall of the West and the shift in the Financial Capital of the World back to Asia. It does not matter who wins in 2020, the other side will never accept the winner.
The Future & Analysis
Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media
Re-Posted Jan 25, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I just saw your interview on BNN, too bad you only had about 7 minutes to explain something that big, guess that’s the Limitation of TV Media I’m glad I bought the Repo Crisis Report. You would not have such limitations on your own platform like youtube. Can you see yourself doing a compilation of blog articles or updates in a video format like once or week or a month? You used to do this in 2015 for many Markets and also explained your reading on the arrays and reversals. I guess many people think of it as highly as I myself do.
all the best
ES
ANSWER: That is why the special reports are so important. You really have to support what you are saying or end up with just “I think” opinions that plague the analysis field. What I am doing is coding right now something to highlight everything that is taking place on a global scale with the ECM etc. I am trying to create systems that replace me and will keep going long after I am gone. We all do have expiration dates. I am trying to replace me. We even laugh internally for some have proposed we create a hologram of myself that could still appear long after I am gone
The Climate Change – Al Gore & Jennifer Morgan’s Fraud
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jan 25, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
All of the data that these climate activists have been using is an absolute fraud. It is untrue that 97% of scientists agree to any of this nonsense. They create that myth to then bully scientists who dare disagree with their agenda.
This is actually criminal behavior and the agenda is Marxism behind the entire plot. They use children like Greta and then Jennifer Morgan proclaimed at Davos that Greta is a climate expert, which is really just absurd at the age of 16.
Nobody will dare even question the climate change activists. They are NEVER asked to prove anything they have to say. They are NEVER asked to even produce a list of scientists who can be verified who have agreed with this catastrophic doom. Exploiting a 16-year-old girl so no one will publicly challenge her because of her age is all part of the scheme.
To argue global warming is dangerous is absurd. Just ask yourself: When is the flu season? Summer or Winter? Claiming this is all human-induced is a major fraud in and of itself when measuring the warming coming out of the Little Ice Age. It certainly appears that this is part of the economic decline of Europe that is underway. Then we have economists like Rogoff arguing to tax the West to hand the money to China. That is just an example as to why the West is declining and our computer will be correct — China is emerging as the next Financial Capital of the World. American politics has entered its Dark Age and its inevitable collapse.
Edmonton & the 7th Century
Armstrong Economics Blog/Europe’s Economic History
Re-Posted Jan 24, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong…HOW DARE YOU!!!!!????
My brother lives in Edmonton, AB where the surface air temperature is a refreshing -23F as of 6:30 pm MST this evening. I am in the coastal northeast where if that temperature were to occur, there would probably be a societal breakdown with tens of thousands frozen to death overnight along with power outage, looting, and rioting. But in Edmonton, things just roll along like another day.
In the case of medieval Europe, would you say that the Huns may have been motivated in the 5th century AD to move east out of the steppe lands into western Europe due to the colder climate? Also, in the 6th century during the intensified cold, the Gothic wars erupted which led to a major depopulation of the Italian peninsula. Then in the 7th century, there seems to have been so little history documented that the misery taking place there may have been at an extreme degree at that time. Were there any coins minted during the 7th century in western Europe? The ones you showed of Peppin the Short and Charles the Great from the 8th century are fascinating! Also, did Charles Martel have any minted for him in the early 8th century?
JD
REPLY: I have been to Edmonton. Gave a lecture there back in the ’90s. Hundreds of people showed up, and I assumed it was just to get together to huddle for warmth. It was -40F. Not sure anyone was really listening to what I said. They were looking for hot air if I recall. The next day was only -20F and there were people in short-sleeve shirts calling it a beautiful spring day. All I remember is I could not open my mouth outside it was so cold my teeth would hurt. I also remember it was so cold they couldn’t even turn off their cars. They would never start again.
Yes, Charles Martel and Peppin the Short issued silver deniers. It was Charlemagne who was the first to apply his portrait to the coinage. So there was coinage during this 7th century, but something changed dramatically at that time. Peppin the Short was the son of Charles Martel who halted the Arab invasion of Europe in 732. The Carolingians, therefore, take their name from Peppin’s father Charles Martel.
Martel was really the last of the Merovingian dynasty which ruled the Franks from the middle of the 5th century until 751 AD. They first appear as “Kings of the Franks” in the Roman army of northern Gaul. By 509 AD, they had united all the Franks and northern Gaulish Romans under their rule as the Roman Empire which had broken apart in 476 AD. The coinage of the Merovingians was gold, not silver.
The Merovingian rulers began imitating the gold solidus issued by the Eastern surviving portion of the Roman Empire, which we call the Byzantine Empire. They issued gold tremissis from about 473 AD under Gundobald and then imitated the Byzantine coinage from about 500 AD forward.
Therefore, it was the 8th century when we find gold vanish from coinage in the Western portion of the old Roman Empire which appears to be coinciding with the rise of the Arab world and their attempt to invade Europe.
There is no doubt that the migrations were driven by climate change. Climate change has always caused massive migrations which have historically been movements from North to South. Even the Mayans of Mexico appear to have DNA links to Asia and were migrants perhaps 15,000 years ago who crossed the Beringia land bridge, which had formed between northeastern Siberia and western Alaska due to the lowering of sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum. It turned warmer back then without CO2 from fossil fuels and then the Ice Age change the sea leve
97% Scientists Do Not Agree with Climate Change or the Solution
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jan 23, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
In 2009, the University of Illinois sent a survey online to about 10,000 scientists with the following two questions:
QUESTION #1
Do you agree that global temperatures have generally risen since the pre-1800s?
QUESTION #2
Do you think that human activity is a significant contributing factor?
Only 3146 responses were received of 10,000, and of that 31%, 90% said yes to the first question but 82% said yes to the second question.
This is how the fraud was carried out by people who have used this survey. They narrowed down the responses and found that among Meteorologists who responded, only 64% said yes to the second question, so about 1/3 said NO!
Then disregarding all the others of the 3146 responses, they focused on only 77 who described themselves as “climate experts” without any proof of their credentials and found that only 75 said yes to the second question.
Therefore, when we divide 75/77 we get to their claim of 97% of all scientists in the world say there is a climate emergency that warrants raising taxes and seizing property.
This was only 2.3% of those who bothered to respond and I doubt that they would agree with the solution which is COMMUNISM!
0.0075%
If we take the 75 responses of 10,000 scientists surveyed, that means that 0.0075% agreed that there is climate change with some human causality. Why are they lying to the entire world? Because behind this movement is the destruction of capitalism and the resurrection of communism. And people wonder why our computer has been forecasting that the financial capital of the world is moving to Asia? Climate Change Activists are trying to recreate the Marxist experiment all over again.
Rogoff’s Global Carbon Tax – Give the Money to China
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jan 23, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What do you think about Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff who advocates a global carbon tax and then takes that money and hand it to China to subsidize them ending coal to generate electricity?
I think he has lost his mind.
HC
ANSWER: This is why major institutions have ZERO respect for academics. They have no concept of the real economy because they have never had to actually roll up their sleeves and deal with a crisis. They have never seen firsthand how capital actually moves. They also see people as an endless source of taxes. Just unbelievable.
When You Thought You Hit A Dog
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jan 23, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You are wrong as usual. We just had the hottest decade. This is all about fossil fuels. There was never a CO2 problem until fossil fuels.
KJ
ANSWER: This entire climate change is nonsense! The first clean air act was passed by the Emperor Justinian in 535AD. Humans have burned wood long before coal. Perhaps you slept through science class, but burning wood produces CO2. This nonsense that the climate has changed ONLY because of humans and fossil fuels is ridiculous. They used fake data only since 1850, refuse to discuss the climate cycles pre-1850, and they fail to address the fact that we were coming out of the Little Ice Age for 200 years before the invention of automobiles and a 100 years before they invented trains.
Believe what you want to believe, but you are a victim of organized propaganda. You go right ahead and destroy Western society, lose your job, and live without heat or air conditioning. I will move to Asia where this nonsense is being rejected. And by the way, 1934 remains the hottest year on record with 1998 being number two.
There just so happens to be a 43-year cycle. The year 1934 was a major cycle inversion and remains the record high. Then 43 years later, 1977, that was the Deep Freeze where it snowed in Miami and they were talking about climate change back then too turning back to an Ice Age. Again, 43 years later and it is back to the 40s in Miami and there are warnings about falling iguanas because it gets so cold they are still alive but pass out.
You people are taking credit for everything. The Australian fires and California droughts are all because of CO2? I hate to tell you that just because the press only wants to sell newspapers they are willing to print your garbage to get people talking about this nonsense. There have been droughts in California that have lasted more than 200 years! Nobody will address the cyclical evidence pre-1850.
The co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, Roger Hallam, in his Common Sense for the 21st Century, claims mass disruption, mass arrests, and mass sacrifice are necessary to prevent extinction. He calls for acts of civil disobedience, bypass political theory, and urges people to rise up to a non-violent revolution against society. He calls for the confiscation of private property. Your spokesperson is an outright communist. Nothing he has put forth proves anything. (see Spiegel, November 22, 2019)
So what you are saying is the Little Ice Age should be the norm and all this global warming is entirely because of fossil fuels? Enjoy yourself. Give up your car. Do not heat or air condition your home. If you cannot walk or ride a bike to work, quit! And how dare you use electricity to send me an email. If you want to be a climate activist, then adapt what you are yelling about instead of blaming everyone, of course, except yourself.
The ECM & Who to Blame
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM
Re-Posted Jan 22, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: You are dangerous. The stock market peaked on your model again but nobody’s models work like that so it is just more proof you don’t advertise because you are way too influential. So what are you up to now? You are against the progressive movement and you will undermine what we work for to unseat people like you.
SB
REPLY: Well I was in contempt when the 2007 target hit. They called it Armstrong’s Revenge. Granted, it was even the very day that Goldman Sachs sold their notorious portfolio right at the top for which they were charged with fraud. Did they use the model or did the model forecast when they would sell?
Sure, people like you can always blame me, but just perhaps this is a model that exposes the hidden order in the appearance of chaos. You can choose to dismiss it and claim it is all just me and my influence. No matter what they have done to me, the model still worked even when I never said a word.
That’s your loss. Your closed mind prevents you from ever seeing the real world. Keep believing you can suppress the rest of us because you want a life where everything comes free. Sorry, the government is not your parent. I have no problem moving to Asia and let you and your friends tax each other until death.
Don’t worry, when I am dead, the model will keep going. Even Athens fell in 404BC to Sparta right on time. I don’t think I was around then to influence that, or the climates changes, or the rise and fall of just about every empire throughout history.
So blame me if that really makes you feel better. But there is something much more important influencing everything besides me
A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, December 2019 Data
From the attached report on climate change for December 2019 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up a bit over 30.0% from 1958 to December of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.
The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.
The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.
Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.
Davos Today
Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion
Re-Posted Jan 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, you are not in Davos?
KS
ANSWER: No, too cold right now. I have people there who provide anything critical from behind the curtain. There is nothing I can say that would be important that anyone would actually do more than listen. I have said many times, there is NOTHING we can do to prevent what is coming. World leaders will ONLY take action when the economy begins to Crash & Burn. The climate activists there will ensure they will destroy the economy and they are socialists who want people to be punished for driving cars and heating their homes.
Here is the face of Global Warming in Newfoundland. Just a small snowstorm.
Centinel2012 