Iran & the Cycle of War


QUESTION: Marty; you had forecast that the future war in the Middle East would start to escalate in 2020 with the ECM turn and possibly erupt by 2021. It seems Socrates got that one right after killing Soleimani, but it is about two weeks ahead of schedule. If I remember, you said this was festering between Sunni and Shite and the leader would be Iran. Do you have any update on that?

Thank you;

GC

ANSWER: The first Iran Revolution was February 1921, when the military commander Reza Khan seized power. The War Cycle on Iran comes into play 2021.29. I will be doing an update to the cycles of war and incorporate those issues from the 2015 Cycle of War which was on the Middle East. The killing of Soleimani is probably the precursor to the turn in the ECM which is due January 18, 2020. This should contribute to the inflationary cycle ahead.

California Media Discuss New Water Usage Laws In Effect – 55 Gallons Per Day or $1,000 Fine…


Yikes.  According to new California laws on water use: you can take a shower or you can do a single load of laundry, but you cannot do both.  55 gal per day limit, or face $1k fine.

Snow in Thailand


A reader from Thailand has sent this in. Maybe the first White Christmas in Thailand

Bangladesh Death Toll from Extreme Cold – A Warning to us All!


Bangladesh has a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, high temperatures and humidity. The three distinct seasons in Bangladesh are hot, humid summer from March to June; a cool, rainy monsoon season from June to October; and a cool, dry winter from October to March. The summer temperatures generally range between 30°C (86 degrees Fahrenheit) and 40°C (104F). April is the warmest month in most parts of the country. January is the coldest month, when the average temperature for most of the country is about 10°C (50F).

While the cold snap has been to 4.5 degrees Celsius (40.1F), the cold weather in such a tropical climate has resulted in disease spreading including influenza which has resulted in 50 people dyingso far. This may not sound like something that drastic, but it is indicative of the risk with Global Cooling. It has been dipping down to even the 40F in northern Florida at night. The same cold has impacted even Thailand creating an unseasonably cold period.

There is a serious risk that even NASA has warned that the upcoming solar cycle (25) will be “the weakest of the past 200 years.” This correlated to previous solar minimums of prolonged periods of global cooling. Right now, our computer is projecting a very cold period ahead into 2025. Intensifying swings-in-extremes are in the weather globally has been a correlation of a historical shift to solar activity going into a minimum phase.

Scientists have been launching cosmic ray balloons since March 2015. The results obtained reveal atmospheric radiation is has been moving to historic highs in sync with the decline in solar activity. This has also resulted in an astonishing and spectacular outbreak of polar stratospheric clouds around the Arctic Circle. Keep in mind, that during solar minimums the sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases. It is during solar minimum when the Earth is bombarded with more cosmic rays and it is believed that these rays penetrate the inner solar system as well as our planet’s atmosphere and may be the cause of the increase in volcanic activity from a correlation perspective.

Everything seems to be getting quite interesting. Our biggest problem has been the propaganda being spread by Greenpeace’s Jennifer Morgan and Al Gore which has everyone looking at Global Warming and then taking credit for the extreme cold periods claiming, without any evidence, that this is all due to CO2 along with the bush fires in Australia. They seem to be setting the world up to be totally unprepared for the real devastation of Global Cooling and how that historically has not just toppled empires, but has on a few occasions resulted in a 50% decline in population

Charlemagne, Vikings & Global Warming


QUESTION: Would u care to comment on after the Roman Empire fell, and how the franks a collection of tribes given there own area Holland in today’s terms then eventually taking over Europe to be broken up in to, Four after the main franks king died and split it between four sons.  It later all deteriorated , but what of the royal blood line and how does in come on to play with today’s world wide royal blood lines. And if that rise and fall has any premises of what we may face in the next wave , from the ashes. ( tribal small communities ) And were there any coins issued by the franks or his death and the splitting in to four.And are there any links to the franks from the crusades .

As always thank you and your team for providing   The knowledge , the whole world needs to understand and start the discussion, on so many up and coming life changing scenarios.

SF

ANSWER: The rise of Charlemagne came 309.6 years from the fall of Rome in 476AD. What is never discussed in the history books is the correlation with weather. Both the rise of the Vikings and the Franks coincided with the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300) and ended with the start of the Little Ice Age (about 1250–1850). It was at the end of this Global Warming period that we find the reappearance of gold coinage. The climate directly influenced the rise and fall of the Vikings. Moreover, we now know that they established a settlement for a while in America about 500 years before Columbus.

Climate was warm and fairly stable pre-180AD  which reduced the threat of volcanic winters. There was an exceptionally low level of volcanic activity which also prevailed from c. 40BC to 150AD. We have similarly experienced post-1850 in modern times a warming period with low volcanic activity.

In central Greenland, temperatures became quite warm from c. 20BC to c. 75AD. Global Cooling began in Greenland post 75AD producing a gradual relatively cool period from about c. 100 to c. 270AD. As climate began to turn colder in the northern regions of Europe, this prompted the barbarian invasions into Southern Europe which was dominated by the Roman Empire. Indeed, it was Emperor Aurelian (270-275AD) who had to build the wall around Rome for the first time. There is a lot of climate evidence that confirms the rise of the Roman Empire which peaked 180AD, coincided with a Global Warming period which peaked about 150AD.(1)

Clearly, the climate was turning much colder inspiring the barbarian invasions from the north. As the solar activity turned down, volcanic activity began to rise. The Byzantine historian Procopius wrote: “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year.”  Temperatures in the summer plummeted creating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell as far east as China during the summer causing starvation as crops failed. The Irish chronicles recorded that “a failure of bread from the years 536–539” took place.

The mysterious clouds which engulfed the world contributed to the era being called the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From a Swiss glacier, ice core samples were obtained at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine. They determined that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere during early in 536AD. Two other massive eruptions followed in subsequent years during 540AD and again during 547AD. What appears to have been three successive major volcanic eruptions, the Dark Ages entered a volcanic winter which plunged Europe into famine which lasted for nearly 100 years into 640AD. This was also solar minimum which seems to correlate to an increase in volcanic activity.

With famine comes lower nutrition leaving the people more susceptible to disease. It appears that following the 546AD eruption, we then see the Justinian Plague (541-542AD) which was a bubonic plague, involving Yersinia pestis, which struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. This plague spread rapidly throughout the Empire wiping out one-third to one-half of the entire population of the Eastern Roman Empire.

Therefore, because of Global Cooling, crops fail and disease rises. Civilization breaks down  and trade ceases. The major solar cycle is about 300 years. Therefore, the rise of Charlemagne came 309.6 years from the fall of Rome in 476AD and it was the fall of Rome which corresponded to the climate turning colder post-150AD.

 

Charlemagne was the eldest son of Pepin the Short and Bertrada of Laon, born before their canonical marriage which was when a priest witnessed the marriage contract and there had to be two witnesses. The marriage contract was important for all inheritance of property centered on this contract. There were also “temporary marriages” which meant it was invalid insofar as the right to a throne would be denied the offspring of a temporary marriage.  Therefore, inheritance would only follow a canonical marriage. The coinage of Pepin the Short begins the reemergence of a denier (old Roman denarius) but it lacked any portrait.

Upon the death of Pepin, Charlemagne became king in 768 of the Franks initially as co-ruler with his brother Carloman I. However, Carloman suddenly died unexpectedly and unexplained in December 771 leaving Charlemagne as the sole ruler of the Frankish Kingdom. He then began to expand his empire conquering tribes. He became the King of the Lombards in 774, and then Emperor of the Romans from 800AD.

Charlemagne-3

It was Charlemagne who reintroduced his portrait onto the coinage in Continental Europe. Charlemagne united the majority of western and central Europe attempting to reestablish his dream to resurrect the Roman Empire. He was the first recognized emperor to rule from western Europe after the fall of the western half of the Roman Empire. The expanded Frankish state that Charlemagne founded is called the Carolingian Empire which became the Holy Roman Empire.

As the climate warmed, the Vikings also grew in power and were able to explore even reaching America. Their invasion of England was like the barbarians invading Rome. According to the Annals of Ulster, the sack of the Holy Island of Lindisfarne in 793/794, which is a tidal island off the northeast coast of England, marked the beginning of the Viking Age. This event also coincided with Charlemagne’s (768-814) Saxon War, which was a Christian war against the Pagans in Saxony. The Viking attacks may have actually been a response to the spread of Christianity among Pagans since it coincides with the reign of Charlemagne and the attempt to spread Christianity into Scandinavia. The Vikings may have invaded England because of the attacks by the Franks trying to move northward.

 

Charlemagne’s empire indeed broke apart much as was the case with the collapse of Alexander the Great’s Empire which was divided among his generals. Even NASA is forecasting that the next solar cycle will be the lowest in hundreds of years. If we see the continued rise in volcanic activity, then there is a serious threat of a prolonged Global Cooling which may explain the computer projection for 2032 being the culmination of the Sixth Wave. What is clear, has been the fact that Climate Change people are blaming everything on the Industrial Revolution. They seek to reduce population and to reverse the economic growth of society. They have achieved much of their goals in Europe with excessive regulation and even the ECB claiming it needs to protect society from Climate Change. All of these regulations fighting against a natural trend in nature will contribute greatly to the fall of Europe rather profoundly and its ultimate breakup for the culmination of 2032.

 


1) A. G. Brown et al., “Roman Vineyards in Britain: Stratigraphic and Palynological Data from Wollaston in the Nene Valley, England,” Antiquity, LXXV (2001), 706–757; Marijke van der Veen, “Food as Embodied Material Culture: Diversity and Change in Plant Food Consumption in Roman Britain,” Journal of Roman Archaeology, XXI (2008), 83–109; Harry Kenward, “Insect Remains from the Romano-British Ditch Terminal at the Flodden Hill Rectilinear Enclosure,” in “Reports from the Environmental Archaeology Unit, York 2001/49” (2001), available at http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/chumpal/EAU-reps/eau01-49. pdf. Future research should increase the archaeoentomological evidence, given the potential of ancient dna detection of insect presence invisible to the eye in archaeological soil. See Philip Francis Thomsen et al., “Non-Destructive Sampling of Ancient Insect DNA,” PLoS ONE, IV (2009), e5048. For details about the written evidence summarized in Figures 6a and 6b, see the relevant entries in McCormick, Harper, and More, “Geodatabase of Historical Evidence on Roman and Post-Roman Climate,” in McCormick et al. (eds.), “Digital Atlas of Roman and Medieval Civilizations” at http://darmc.harvard.edu/.

Prospects for Biomass, Wind and Solar Energy, With and Without Storage: Alberta Case Study


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Presentation by Presentation by Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten on the Prospects for Biomass, Wind and Solar Energy, With and Without Storage: Alberta Case Study at the GWPF on May 24, 2018. Professor van Kooten has more than thirty years of experience in natural resource economics, including agricultural and forest economics, land-use management, mathematical programming, and, most recently, the economics of renewable energy and climate. His interests range from agricultural and forest economics to development economics and computational economics. He has published more than 200 peer-reviewed journal articles and 45 book chapters; he is the author of two books on climate economics, author or co-author of three books on land and forest economics, and co-editor of three books. His book with Erwin H. Bulte entitled The Economics of Nature (Blackwell, 2000) is considered a classic reference book for researchers in the field of wildlife and public land economics, and his 1995 paper in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics on the uptake of carbon in forest ecosystems is the standard reference for work in the field of terrestrial carbon offsets. He is also the author of Climate Change, Climate Science and Economics (Springer 2013)

 

Nir Shaviv – The Cosmic Ray Climate Link


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Presentation by Professor Nir Shaviv on 4 April 2018, on the The Cosmic Ray Climate Link, From Geological Timescales to 20th Century Climate Change. The 20th century has seen a notable temperature rise, generally attributed to the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic gases, and a future “business as usual” policy is generally believed to be catastrophic. However, significant evidence indicates that the sun plays a major role in climate change. Shaviv reviews the evidence which proves the existence and quantifies the physical mechanism linking between solar activity and climate — galactic cosmic ray ionization of the atmosphere and its effect on cloud cover. In particular, Shaviv argues that the link operates on geological time scales, linking our galactic motion to long term climate variationsand that once the link is taken into account, a much more consistent picture for 20th century global warming is obtained. In it, climate sensitivity is low and future climate change is benign

Understanding Cycles


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I met someone who used to work for you. He said your models are far more complex than anyone imagines and that it is not a simple algorithm. He said you have relied on quantum mechanics which is why nobody has been able to duplicate what you do. Would you care to comment?

PD

ANSWER: Society in the West is blocked mentally. The primary distinction remains the assumption that the world is linear, which is completely wrong for it is cyclical. Take global warming. The analysis being applied is absolutely absurd. Scientific methodology is one of unbiased inquiry based upon reason supported by evidence and collective investigation. Global warming has none of that and it is simply propagated as a belief. They refuse to demonstrate how the climate has changed for thousands of years. The latest claim is that the extremely cold winters are also caused by C02 without any evidence to show such historical volatility and Co2. They just make it up and nobody asks to see the proof.

Linear analysis is just so absurd it is hard to see how any intelligent body would use it when the world is not linear in any possible way — we do have seasons! In the study of light, it was assumed in classical linear analysis that an increasingly higher frequency of the electromagnetic wave would cause the universe to simply destroy itself with black body radiation. This is what became known as the ultraviolet catastrophe. Obviously, that has not happened. The reason is the existence of cycles. Energy is not constant. It unfolds in segments Max Planck called “quanta” and we arrive at what is known as threshold energy.

Suffice it to say, this area of understanding cyclical behavior is extremely complex. I simply have called this the “Schema Frequency” upon which all others travel in a piggy-back manner as a derivative of something that defies the notions of real world analysis. It is far deeper in the world of quantum mechanics where it is even possible to have the same thing in two locations simultaneously. I still struggle with trying to figure out a way to articulate this concept.

The energy is linked to the frequency. Consequently, our Energy Model is determined by the frequency and is therefore linked to time. But light acts like a particle and a wave. This duality is by no means restricted to just light. There is duality is cyclical analysis as well.

When you breakdown how we think, you may believe you “think” in words. When you have to speak in a language such as Japanese v Latin-based, some words in Japanese like Onegaishimasu (おねがいします) do not directly translate to a specific English meaning. Conceptually, it can mean anything from “Please, could I have a cup of coffee?” (Kōhī Onegaishimasu) or “Can I use your phone?” (Denwa Onegaishimasu), to a stewardess announcing we are about to take off in an airplane (Onegaishimasu) or “Please do your best,” “Please have a good game,” or “I pray you…”. In other words, it is a “concept” that we have in our mind which is understood but not an English word.

Therefore, the Schema Frequency is complex and it is a concept not easily translated into words. There are two worlds — the classical world we believe we live in and the world of quantum mechanics. When we look at this 2016 penny, the surface appears smooth. When we look at it under a microscope, we see that the surface is not smooth. This illustrates the difference between the two worlds of observation in a crude simplistic manner.

The BS of Climate Change from Polar Bears to Taxes


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have worked in the Arctic Circle. They always show polar bears on ice but what they fail to tell the public is that they normally spend time on land in summer when sea ice declines and most pregnant polar bears give birth and make their dens near the coast not on ice in the open sea.  They are excellent swimmers and will swim long distances. The photo they used to start global warming makes them appear to be clinging to ice because they cannot swim and that is where they live exclusively. This is just another part of the propaganda.

It is rare to find someone these days willing to say the truth.

HN

REPLY: Someone sent in this Facebook link that lists the timeline of climate scares. It is amazing how these people hate society so much that they have lied about everything to try to send us back to the pre-Industrial Revolution. They are totally dishonest about what their objectives truly are and they conspire together to destroy our civilization.

They have succeeded in convincing Europe to take drastic action on “climate change,” but perhaps because the politicians already KNOW that their social system is collapsing and they will be unable to sustain it even with the highest taxation on the planet.

Macron of France is pushing hard to Federalize Europe because he knows full well that France cannot maintain the level of social benefits and still keep its spending in line with the European treaty. His agenda is to federalize Europe and use climate change as a cover for the failing socialism he faces. By pushing France to surrender its total sovereignty to Brussels, the cuts to French benefits will then not be his, but Brussels. That ploy will simply not work. Nonetheless, he has been trying to use climate change to reduce social benefits.

 

When I lived in Switzerland for a few months a few years ago working on a project, the same Starbucks drink in Zug was $10 compared to $5 in the USA. The degree of hidden taxes through the VAT system combined with income taxes that are 20-30% higher than in the USA means there is just no room to raise taxes in a normal fashion. Hence, politicians need global warming as an excuse to raise taxes. That is what began the Yellow Vest Movement in France — the added fuel tax to save the planet. We saw the same excuse when Canada placed a $1,000 tax per home to save the planet when the money just goes into the general coffer and does not even fund a pretend strategy to save the planet.

Climate change has become the battle cry for governments to simply raise taxes and the lies will only fuel civil unrest.

Sports Peaked with 2015.75 and NFL Has 15,000 Unsold seats


superbowl

COMMENT: Marty; Your forecast that sports peaked with the ECM 2015.75 and would decline was really amazing. Socrates is monitoring everything and your explanation that sports would peak and decline was part of the cycle has proved that there are so many trends all interconnected.

Fantastic forecast nobody else even thought about.

GH

REPLY: Yes, it may seem amazing, but humans react the same way over the centuries given the same or similar trends in the economy. The NFL has thousands of empty seats that show everything is subject to cyclical behavior