Tag Archives: AfD

Dec 16 2021

Stunning Stupidity – The Salvation Army Discovers Meaning of Get Woke, Go Broke


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 573 Comments

At first blush, this story seemed too bizarre to be true; alas it is not.  [h/t Gateway Pundit]  As noted by Jim Hoft at Gateway Pundit, a few weeks ago the Salvation Army stepped into the social justice arena and began promoting the premise of white guilt.

According to an “internal study guide” from the charitable organization intended to “foster positive conversations and grace-filled reflection among Salvationists“, the white members and donors to the Salvation Army were requested to reflect on their inherent racism.  According to the Salvation Army’s “International Social Justice Commission“, this was presumably of some charitable value.

Obviously, this request stirred up some controversy.  In an era where the toxic issues around Critical Race Theory being taught in schools has been in the headlines, there is likely not a worse time for a charitable group to join the social justice cause and push CRT toward the aggregate public.

Many people were surprised by the decision of the Salvation Army to push the divisive issue of racism in what appeared to be an effort by the organization to enter the orbit of wokeism.

Quite frankly, I cannot reference a more ridiculous organizational decision than this example in recent memory.  However, that said, while the original decision was nuts, the effort to clean up the mess they created for themselves is exponentially more nuts.  Amid the backlash, the Salvation Army released the following statement:

[LINK]

The first thought of ‘what were they thinking‘, becomes compounded by realizing the Salvation Army is a partner with something called the “International Social Justice Commission.”  I mean, seriously, what the heck is this all about?

Mistake one might be taking the intent of a historic organization away from charitable giving and into the toxic and divisive world of racial politics.  Mistake number two is doubling down on the decision to engage with race in some ill-fated effort to establish politically correct bona fides.

If you wanted to completely destroy the guiding mission of a charity, the Salvation Army is showing everyone exactly how to do it.

I’m not sure what qualifications or prisms others use, but myself, as a donor, I want to see my money used by a charity in such a way as to care for people who are in the most need – and that has absolutely nothing to do with race or any other qualification.  I am literally stunned by the intent of the Salvation Army in this mess, and their cleanup effort is even worse.

This is one of the biggest disappointments of the year, and yet, again shows that organizations can lose their entire purpose by following leadership making stupid decisions.

Jim Hoft follows up the issue with a highlight showing the Salvation Army is in a crisis now, because people are not giving to the charity at the time of year when the Christmas Season Salvation Army kettles usually raise a lot of money.

(Fox-13) […] Not only is the nonprofit organization short on donations, they also are in desperate need of bell ringers to staff the red kettles seen at businesses around the country. (read more)

Well, DUH!  What exactly did The Salvation Army expect to happen?

Dec 15 2021

US Producer Price Index Reaches 11-Year High


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Dec 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for November reached an 11-year high, according to the Labor Department. The PPI for final demand rose 0.8% in November, the index for final demand services increased 0.7%, and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.2%. Alarmingly, the final demand PPI soared 9.6% for the 12 months ending in November, marking the fastest 12-month advance since November 2020 when that data was first collected. Core PPI advanced 6.9%, marking the largest spike since August 2014. As a reminder, this measures the average price movement established by domestic producers for goods and services sold both domestically and internationally.

Companies are facing higher costs, and that cost is passed on to the consumer. As a result, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation on an annual basis. The Labor Department noted that this was the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982.

These levels are unsustainable. The Fed’s 2% inflation target seems laughable considering prices in every area continuously rise with no end in sight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the central bank would step in with a more aggressive policy if they saw runaway inflation. How high do prices need to rise for the central bank to take action?

Dec 15 2021

EUREKA, Someone Finally Points Out The Obvious


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 142 Comments

Finally!  Good grief, it’s been a long wait to see someone on the TV pointing out the obvious.

CNBC’s Steve Liesman points out what all the financial pundits keep ignoring.

The price of raw material at origination is still climbing…. which means the prices of intermediate manufacturing goods will keep climbing… which means the prices of finished goods (to wholesalers) will keep climbing…..  which means consumer prices will keep climbing.   WATCH:

♦Here’s the kicker.  The rate of raw material price increases are still higher than the rate of intermediate price increases, which are still higher than the rate of price increases in finished goods, which are still higher than the rate of price increases in consumer goods (retail).

As long as the rate of price increase for raw material, the very first step in the supply chain, remains higher than the rate of the price increase for the next step in the process, then you can guarantee future prices will go up.  It’s a simple and commonsense way to look forward when evaluating inflation.

If the stuff starts at a higher price (day one), the end product at day 90 will be at a higher price than today.  This is how you can tell that inflation is not slowing down.  The first sign of inflation easing is when the rate of inflation for raw material is lower than the rate of inflation in the next step.

Dec 15 2021

Scientists Identify Young Vaccinated People as Source for Omicron Variant


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 280 Comments

This is a little interesting.  According to The Telegraph [Tweet Link], the ‘scientific data’ is showing that young vaccinated people are the source carriers for the latest Omicron variant.  {Telegraph Article, Paywall}

What makes this interesting is both the timing and sequence.

The “Delta” variant surfaced and spread during the vaccination program for people over 40 years old.

The “Omicron” variant surfaced and spread during the vaccination program for people under 40 years old.

It’s almost as if… the vaccination and boosters are what creates the variant.

Dec 15 2021

November Producer Prices Rise Record Breaking 9.6 Percent Year Over Year, Biggest Single Month in History, as Massive Inflation Builds Within The Supply Chain – Again, No Signs of Slowing Down


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 280 Comments

We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

You can see from Table A (above) that finished good prices are still climbing.  That’s the higher price inflation you are feeling when you buy a product.

More alarming is to look at the “intermediate demand” products [Table B below] as they flow through the manufacturing system.  Two types of products are at the intermediate wholesale level:  Processed Goods, and Unprocessed goods.

I have again modified Table B (above) to remove the noise.  Notice two key aspects:

(1) Prices for both types of products are still climbing in the manufacturing process.  Compare August, Sept., Oct., and now November, noticing how the prices are still climbing.  Some of that has to do with energy and fuel costs still climbing.  The increasing price for gasoline is built into each part of the transportation process.

(2) Notice the scale of the increase in the prices from prior months.  The trend line is not leveling off, instead it’s doing the opposite.  The rate of inflationary climb (price increase), at the intermediate level of goods coming into the system, is getting even more steep.  The stuff coming into the manufacturing process is not only costing more, it is costing much more than before.

The wholesale prices of products into the system that end up at the retail level are still through the roof. In a major way, this is being driven by massive increases in energy costs throughout the entire supply chain.

This is going to get even uglier. Even if wages jumped in price 5% overnight (single month), which would be a large increase in wages, those wage increases are nowhere near enough to deal with this level of price increase at a consumer level. A nickel more per dollar earned is futile against a loaf of bread costing $1 more, or gasoline at $4.00/gal.

Do what you can now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before. Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses. Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start.

Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products, and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.

Remember, when inflation hits like this, you can NATURALLY expect an eventual demand side response.  People will stop purchasing things, because those things are just too expensive.  When that happens, the inflationary spike can/will start to level off as the demand slows and excess inventory builds, albeit with higher prices built into the unaffordable existing inventory.

Unfortunately this drop in demand, a contraction in the economy, is what’s known as a recession. That leads to layoffs and unemployment, which only exacerbates the problems and puts downward pressure on wages – while the prices remain high.

Joe Biden spending more to try and subsidize people through this inflationary economic cycle only makes things worse for the middle class.  More spending results in more inflation, which requires more subsidy, which requires more spending, which creases more inflation.

Your goal is to prepare yourself and your family for that moment when the economy starts contracting – yet prices remain high.   If you can avoid future expenses by taking action before the highest prices hit, you will be in a better position.  Be proactive with your household maintenance, and think about things that normally hit your monthly budget unexpectedly.

Try to avoid any unexpected expenses your memory provides you, by doing what you can do now.

Act or be acted upon.

Protect your family.  Even if, heck, especially if, your kids or grandkids cannot see what is coming.  Prepare yourself to help them even if they don’t know, or won’t admit, they will need the help. Be wise in your counsel, but do not alarm.  Do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Fellowship is not only needed, it is critical.

It is empowering to be prepared for the storms of life, just as it is to be prepared in advance of storms from weather.

Dec 14 2021

Afghanistan Poised to Become Largest Distributor of Crystal Methamphetamine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Taliban has sadly revived Afghanistan’s booming drug business and now poses a stark threat to the rest of the world. According to a BBC report, the country has expanded from opiates to producing crystal methamphetamine. Estimates say the nation produces an average of 3,000 kg per day at 500 separate laboratories. The herb ephedra grows naturally in the nation and can be used to create ephedrine, a key ingredient in the highly addictive drug crystal meth.

The Taliban recently eliminated the tax on ephedra by simply banning it from public production. The ban has allegedly caused prices on ephedra to double among the region, where it is sold openly at markets. Dr. David Mansfield, a researcher who tracks Afghanistan’s drug trade using satellite imagery, said that the ephedra ban came after cultivation, and the full effect of the ban will not be felt until next July when the harvest is due. Dr. Mansfield believes that the amount being produced could become the Taliban’s most lucrative drug.

Effectively cut off from international trade and the broader world economy, the Taliban is likely to allow the drug trade to flourish. Around 80% of the world’s supply of opium comes from Afghanistan, and numerous farmers have told reporters that drug-related harvests are the only lucrative crops for them to plant. An informant told the BBC that a kilogram of heroin, produced from opium, would cost around $66,000 in Britain. Bilal Karimi, a Taliban spokesman, told the BBC that they could not take away opium cultivation from the Afghans until they found “an alternative.”

Domestic sales of the drug are also on the rise due to the low cost. Afghanistan’s drug trade has overshadowed Iran’s as well, with one user claiming a gram of meth that previously sold for $15 now sells for around $0.31 to $0.41. The last time the Taliban took over, they waited six years before publicly banning the drug trade. As a result, the Taliban will continue to illegally export drugs such as crystal meth and heroin worldwide, which is an actual threat to international security.

Dec 14 2021

Australian PM Scott Morrison Calls the People “Sheep”


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Australian PM Scott Morrison is promoting forced vaccinations for children and adults while slowly eliminating the unvaccinated population from everyday society. In this clip, Morrison admits to what the politicians have been thinking all along — the Great Unwashed are sheep who are expected to herd to their handler’s (i.e. government’s) demands. “It’s a bit like getting the sheep through the gate,” Morrison laughed as he discussed the ongoing forced vaccination effort. If this is how politicians speak in public, imagine what they are saying about their sheep (voters) in private. Remember PM Scott Morrison’s cold laugh during next year’s election.

Dec 14 2021

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

American farmers are struggling to send their goods overseas as the East simply does not want American exports. The Ocean Shipping Reform Act passed in the House last week due to Asian carriers “unfairly decimating against American cargo.” Five major Asian liners have been accused of offloading goods at American ports and returning empty-handed, refusing to take American cargo back with them. The US agriculture industry is highly reliant on California ports that are now described as cargo parking lots as there are not enough workers to offload boats. In addition to these supply chain delays, discrimination against American products is causing countless containers filled with agricultural goods to rot.

“Unfortunately because it’s an oligopoly…. you’ve got to take it or leave it if you’re an American shipper,” Rep. Dusty Johnson noted. “The terms often say that liquidated damages for you canceling a container is $100. Well there can be $100,000 of goods in each container.” Johnson pointed to an issue with a cheese manufacturer in South Dakota who has 2 million pounds of lactose awaiting shipment in a warehouse. That shipment sat on the dock for 75 days, spoiled, and over $25,000 was lost. Johnson also used the example of pork, which is a hot commodity in Asia. Non-frozen pork, in particular, goes for a premium. As a result, producers have been forced to freeze numerous pork shipments to Asia, diluting the profits.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act will go to the Senate before being presented to President Joe Biden. “If you’re going to use this shared infrastructure, you’re going to play fair, and you’re not going to have unprecedented levels of rejection of American cargo – which is what we’re seeing actual rejection a refusal to take this cargo,” Johnson said.

Dec 14 2021

Australia to Quarantine Even Fully Vaccinated Flying to Australia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The joke use to be going Postal because so many postal workers were killing co-workers decades ago. Not they are calling it Going-Australian, meaning they are leading the charge on the most anti-human rights regime in the world. They have matched the Nazis blocking travel even between states. Now they are even saying that FULLY VACCINATED may still have to quarantine for two weeks coming into Australia which will end any dreams of tourism. What they are acknowledging, without admitting it, is that vaccines at the very best may lessen what you contract like a flu shot, but it will NEVER prevent you from getting COVID or spreading it.

People are beginning to see that this has been just an excuse to move toward what their politicians have admitted is a new world order. This has nothing to do with health, but everything to do with social control. The most ruthless state, Victoria, locks you down and requires you to send a photo to prove you are home using facial recognition. This is wholesale imprisonment and may see this as Australia is moving full circle whereas it began as a penal colony. Australia actually did not gain its independence from Britain until March 3rd, 1986. The ECM plotted for Australia shows that its tyrannical regime began with COVID in 2020.56. The first case in Australia was on January 19, 2020, and Victoria imported its first lockdown on March 10, 2020.

There is no way the government will reverse its position. This is all about restricting the total economy, not really about a health crisis. In fact, even the UK-based Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy Ltd submitted to the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in Britain which states bluntly that “the MHRA now has more than enough evidence on the Yellow Card system to declare the COVID-19 vaccines unsafe for use in humans.”

Without question, governments are mandating these vaccines and are not concerned about the health of people or the injuries they are causing. Instead, this is the excuse to prevent travel and to ensure that there will be no uprising against the government as they impose Schwab’s Great Reset and the intended default of all government debt.

Dec 14 2021

Senator Joe Manchin Not Convinced to Vote For Massive Build Back Better Spending Bill – Curiously WaPo Launches Investigation of Joe Manchin Finances


Posted originally on the conservative tree house December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 132 Comments

I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

But in a 50-50 Senate where Democrats would need all of their party’s votes to push through the legislation over unanimous Republican opposition, Mr. Manchin’s reluctance to embrace it has helped freeze the measure in place. (read more)

Every article written about the Build Back Better/Social Spending/Green New Deal bill, carries a totally different price tag.   The New York Times says $2.2 trillion.  Politico said $1.6 trillion, and other media like CBS have put the figure around $3 trillion. Regardless, Joe Manchin has reservations about it.

Those reservations have apparently triggered the ‘six ways to Sunday‘ deep state….

(Washington Post) – In Sen. Joe Manchin III’s hilly West Virginia home county, his family’s business has made millions by taking waste coal from long-abandoned mines and selling it to a power plant that emits air pollution at a higher rate than any other plant in the state.

That enterprise could have taken a hit under a key part of President Biden’s climate agenda, a $150 billion plan to push coal plants toward cleaner energy. One lawmaker, though, played a central role in killing that proposal: Manchin, who has earned hundreds of thousands of dollars annually from the family coal company while using his role as a Democratic swing vote in a 50-50 Senate to dictate Biden’s policies.

When pressed about whether he has a conflict of interest, Manchin bristles. “I have been in a blind trust for 20 years. I have no idea what they’re doing,” the senator told reporters in September, referring to his family’s coal firm. “You got a problem?”

But contrary to his public statements, documents filed by the senator show the blind trust is much too small to account for all his reported earnings from the coal company, as of his latest financial disclosure report, which covers 2020 and was filed in May. (read more)

Nice investment portfolio you have there Joe, it’d be a shame if something happened to it.