Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 156 Comments
The New York Federal Reserve survey reflects the obvious. Consumers see staple food and energy price increases far outpacing any wage gains, and the outlook moving forward does not show signs of improvement.
The distance between the inflation line and the wage line is the intensity of the hurricane coming our way.
We are in this very weird place where the politically motivated Fed cannot stop purchasing debt created by legislative spending. At the same time, the political Fed is going to have to raise interest rates or we will enter an impossible spiral of policy caused inflation. There are three options: (1) stop buying debt; (2) increase interest rates; or (3) deploy some COVID mechanism to shut down people and hit the demand side.
Considering that Omicron didn’t work, and further panic pushing does not seem politically viable, that only leaves the two options of the Fed stops buying debt, and/or the Fed raises interest rates. Now, considering that these same political ideologues will not stop pushing the Build Back Better legislative agenda, that means the Fed cannot stop buying debt. That leaves one option remaining, increase interest rates.
Dec 13 (Reuters) – U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations pushed higher in November and expectations for future earnings growth dropped, suggesting they anticipate price increases will outpace wage gains at an even faster rate in the near term, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.
Prices for food and other goods are rising at the fastest pace since 1982, according to data released by the Labor Department last week, posing political challenges for President Joe Biden’s administration and cementing expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next year. (read more)
America’s sweetheart, Dr. Fauci, would like to divide families this holiday season by urging people to ensure their relatives and friends are vaccinated. Fauci said only vaccinated groups should gather so that “vaccinated people can feel comfortable.” So tell your grandfather with the pacemaker to stay home alone this Christmas. Perhaps tell your cousin not to bring her unvaccinated baby too. “That’s the reason why people should, if they invite people over their home, essentially ask and maybe require that people show evidence that they are vaccinated,” Dr. Fauci actually said out loud.
This is exactly what the Stasi did in former East Germany until the Ministry for State Security (Stasi) was abolished in March 1990. The Stasi encouraged people to spy on neighbors, friends, and relatives. Children were expected to turn their parents into the state. Under their premise, your loyalty should stand with the state first and foremost.
Snowden’s leak stated that today’s NSA can compile 5 billion mobile records per day, and 42 billion internet records per month. The FBI recently released a document stating they can hack into iMessage and WhatsApp within 15 minutes. The advancement in technology has paved the way for a police state to control the public far beyond anything the Stasi pulled. The government is not your family.
Inflation is soaring with no end in sight. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation YoY. According to the Labor Department, this is the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982. In addition, Core-CPI rose 0.5% last month, amounting to a 4.9% annual increase, the quickest advancement since 1991.
Energy prices alone have spiked 33.3% in the past year, and gasoline prices are up 58.1%. Over the past 12 months, food and energy prices rose at the most rapid pace in 13 years. Shelter costs, amounting to one-third of CPI, rose 3.8% on an annual basis. This level has not been seen since the 2007 housing crisis wreaked havoc on the US real estate market.
Despite pay increases of 4.8% this year, real hourly earnings decreased 1.9% over the past 12-months. Service costs rose at the fastest pace since 2007 as well, advancing 3.4% over the past year. Apparel costs are also up by 5% since last November. Everywhere you look, prices are drastically rising.
Overall, the cost of living is astronomical. Basic necessities such as food and shelter price increases have caused more middle-class Americans to begin living paycheck to paycheck. The Federal Reserve claimed it would step in if inflation reached an unsustainable level. A 6.8% increase is unsustainable, inflation is not transitory, and neither the government nor the Fed has made a valid effort to control this growing problem.
COMMENT: Hi Martin. Thank you for your work. The chip and supply shortage has not improved. I live in America outside a major city. My cellular device failed at the beginning of November so I ordered a replacement directly from Samsung. Best Buy and my cellular provider were both out of the phone I was seeking, and I went to around five stores. Shipping from Samsung was supposed to take a bit over a week, then two weeks, and now the ETA is in January. The stores I went into had Apple iPhones but not Androids. Frustrating.
REPLY: Now is an unfortunate time to need a new phone. Numerous original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reported failing to secure crucial parts this year due to semiconductor shortages. Counterpoint Research lowered their forecast of global smartphone shipments from 1.45 billion units to 1.41 billion. Their study further suggests that smartphone OEMs only received 80% of the crucial components they need this year to manufacture phones during the second half of the year.
Samsung completely canceled their Galaxy Note series this year as they knew they would not be able to obtain the components. “Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi have all been affected and we are lowering our forecasts. But Apple seems to be the most resilient and least affected by the AP (application processor) shortage situation,” Tom Kang, a researcher with Counterpoint reported in October. Kang’s research did not indicate why Apple was more immune to the chip shortage. Numerous companies are racing to produce highly in-demand chips, but it will take time for manufacturing to begin.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 145 Comments
Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’. During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.
Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.” Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond. Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:
The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal. If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.
As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined. He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.
It is only from the position that climate change is baked into forward economic outlooks that El-Erian can state inflation is structurally survivable, at the current level, with additional spending by federal government.
If he’s right…if congress does pass the BBB/GND at a level they are currently debating, then inflation will rise at/near current levels through Jan, Feb, March, then plateau around March/April for a few months, and then spike again -even higher- sometime around the spring 2022.
Keep in mind, in order for inflation to spike again in 2022, it will be building upon the prior massive inflationary step of 2021, because inflation is a measure of the percent change in prices year over year.
In 2021, we experienced around a 5% jump in overall CPI prices starting in the spring. That initial inflation jump cycles through at the same time next year, and you would expect the rate of inflation to drop or stabilize once the comparison period is passed in 2022. If the BBB bill is passed, the rate will jump again even when it cycles through the calendar.
Example: December 2020 bread was $3.00
December 2021 bread is $4.00 (25% increase over 2020)
June 2022 bread at $5.00 is a 20% increase over 2021. Price difference same, but the rate of inflation is lower.
.
Imagine the prices in the scenario above if the rate of inflation in 2022 is the same or higher than 2021. That’s the part people need to start thinking about now.
Example-2: December 2020 Gasoline was $2.00/gal
December 2021 Gasoline is $3/gal (50% increase)
June 2022 Gasoline is $4.50/gal (50% increase), $5/gal, $5.50/gal etc
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The downstream consequences of interim energy policy shifts are major increases in current energy costs.
Few people realize how much everything jumps in price simply because oil, gas and energy costs increase. The entire process of creating stuff (raw materials), moving stuff, processing stuff (intermediate), transporting stuff, finishing stuff, shipping stuff, storing stuff, distributing stuff and selling stuff becomes a rising cumulative cost inside the supply chain.
When energy prices go up, a snowball effect starts traveling down the mountain getting bigger and bigger as it heads towards your house.
As Obama said, “Under my administration, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, but he could never actually do the structural energy change because: (1) Republicans took control of the House in January 2011; and (2) the economic blast damage would have been just too catastrophic for any attempt at re-election in 2012.
Joe Biden frees the leftists from those ideological constraints.
Everything you would normally consider to be a concern, anything that would limit the extremes of any legislative effort, has been removed. They plan to lose next year, so they have nothing to lose right now.
Joe Biden is an appointed figurehead for a background agenda driven by Obama’s Chicago Marxists and the global leftists.
The Biden far-left policy agenda is strategically a massive throw everything at the legislative process, in an effort to create major change in a short period of time. COVID is being used as the cover story, Biden is the disposable front man, and Nancy Pelosi is the facilitating legislative cohort.
Massive inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, collapsed supply chains, empty shelves or shortages in products, increased crime, devalued dollar, diminished international influence, horrible polling, predictable political consequences, none of this matters because Biden is disposable to the agenda.
Additionally, there are no limits to the obvious lies they will tell, because no one inside the administration cares about any public impact. This current effort is to drive the agenda regardless of political damage that can only catch them, or block them, in the 2022 mid-term election.
The “Green New Deal” legislation *is* the “Build Back Better” legislation. Once they get that bill passed, it’s mission accomplished. This is a legacy move for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden. This is the fundamental change part.
It appears in the interview with CBS Margaret Brennan, Mohamed El-Erian is accepting this Build Back Better legislation (or something similar) will pass the Senate and be enacted into law. At the very least, he is accepting that ‘climate change policy’ is now fundamentally accepted by U.S. voters. That perspective forms the baseline for him saying the climate change agenda is now baked into the U.S. economy, and inflation will have to be accepted – albeit at a debatable scale.
I hope El-Erian is wrong, because he is massively underestimating the scale of what will happen with total economic inflation as a consequence.
Factually, I think his analysis is corrupted by his associations on Wall Street. The elites (in his circle) think We The People are not smart enough to see what can happen if this complete transformation of the U.S. energy system is changed; or as healthcare policy architect Jonathan Gruber later said publicly, “We relied upon the stupidity of the American voter” to create Obamacare, the transformation in the healthcare system.
I am cautiously optimistic they are both wrong right now, although I can also see how this COVID noise is providing them a lot of cover.
New Zealand plans to make the tobacco industry obsolete among future generations. Associate Health Minister Dr. Ayesha Verrall announced plans to pass the Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan, with the goal of eliminating tobacco in the country in the next four years. As a result, cigarette companies will be prohibited from advertising in New Zealand. When the law goes into effect, teenagers under the age of 14 will never have the ability to purchase legal tobacco in their lifetimes. In addition, the majority of controversial flavored e-cigarettes aside from mint, menthol, and tobacco were banned in August as they are said to appeal to the youth.
The government is also taking measures to help older generations quit by gradually reducing nicotine content in cigarettes and removing filters. Currently, 8,000 retailers have the ability to sell tobacco products in the nation, but that will be reduced to only 500 locations. In four years, the only cigarettes available will contain a very low level of nicotine before they are phased out completely.
Verrall claims the move will save New Zealand $5 billion in healthcare costs. According to estimates, the average smoker in New Zealand spends $238 per week on cigarettes, amounting to $12,400 annually. The move will make New Zealand’s tobacco industry the most restricted in the world, behind Bhutan where cigarette products are prohibited entirely. However, tobacco sales compose around 40% of total convenience retail revenue in the nation. Opponents say that prohibition has never worked, and the ban will lead to an unregulated black market. Small dairies (i.e., grocery stores) are upset over the law as it will deplete much of their revenue, and the government has said it will not step in to bail out businesses affected by the mandate.
While everyone still argues over the virus and which lab did what, they seem to gloss over the real question — Is this a diversion to hide the true motive? This is why nobody in the Biden Administration will ever investigate Fauci. There is plenty to warrant an investigation, but it might uncover something much larger.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 27 Comments
Several people have emailed asking for opinion on the Yahoo News article [READ HERE] outlining Ali Watkins as a victim of the horrible investigative apparatus that targets journalists who are involved in leaking and denying leaking, “Top Secret, Classified Information” from their narrative engineering positions. {{Insert Eyeroll Here}}
Having read the lengthy article a few times, there are some interesting aspects and also a lot of nonsense in the grand scheme of things. The motive for the article appears to be a defense against government investigating journalists, and a sub-sector of one of the intelligence agencies (Customs and Border Patrol) having a semi-rogue actor named Jeffrey Rambo. Ali Watkins was contacted by Rambo in 2017 based on his discovery of her connection to Senate Intelligence Committee Security Director James Wolfe.
You have to read the article [HERE] to see where the author, Jana Winter, is coming from. Overall, the article is a little weird and defensive, and frames a position that secretive U.S. government agencies should not be conducting surveillance on U.S. journalists. Much of the article is not too interesting to anyone who is not a journalist. However, there are a few parts worth noting. One paragraph specifically, which I’ll get to.
First… The author Mrs. Jana Winter and Ali Watkins are lying about a very key point. Watkins claims James Wolfe never leaked any classified information to her, and Jana Winter makes that point repeatedly. This is a lie, they are liars – [sue me]. James Wolfe did leak classified information to Ali Watkins, who was writing for Buzzfeed at the time, which Watkins then shared with her friends and peers in the media. One specific classified leak was the Carter Page FISA application, which Wolfe leaked to Watkins in March of 2017.
Second… When Jeffrey Rambo enters the picture to question Watkins, neither of them knew at the time that Watkins was already under FBI investigation. The timeline is outlined in the original James Wolfe indictment. After Watkins wrote an article in early April 2017, using the Wolfe and the FISA leak as her anonymous source, she became a target for investigation.
Watkins was notified on February 13, 2018 about her electronic communication being retrieved by the DOJ/FBI per a previous court order. One set of her phone records that were used in evidence covered a period from Feb 1 to July 31, 2017. [LETTER HERE]
Third… We know from the indictment itself the investigation of James Wolfe was completed by December 15, 2017, when he was fired from his position. Wolfe’s indictment did not surface for another six months – until June 08, 2018. Wolfe was indicted for lying to the FBI investigators. However, Wolfe was not indicted for leaking the FISA application despite the FBI having direct evidence of the leak; which was then sworn and affirmed in Wolfe’s December 2018 sentencing memo when the U.S. Attorney Office in DC requested an upward departure for longer term sentencing, specifically because Wolfe leaked top secret classified information. He leaked the FISA application.
Wolfe leaked the Carter Page FISA application to journalist Ali Watkins. Despite Wolfe’s lawyer denials; and despite Ali Watkins denials; and despite Yahoo denials; and despite The Washington Post denials; and despite the New York Times denials; Wolfe DID leak the FISA application.
The reason the media needs to deny the leak is because these same media outlets were falsely reporting everything about the FISA application. The biggest names in U.S. media (WaPo and NYT) had the full and unredacted FISA application in March of 2017, and spent the next 15 months lying about the content to support the fraudulent Trump-Russia narrative. Heck, Ali Watkins was likely hired by the New York Times -from Buzzfeed- specifically because she had the FISA application.
[SIDEBAR – James Wolfe did not respond to Yahoo News about their latest article on Ali Watkins. Smartly he’s keeping his mouth shut, because he was saved from having to face repercussions from the classified information leak by a 2018 DC cover-up operation organized by Andrew Weissmann and the Robert Mueller special counsel team.]
The media had the full and unredacted FISA application in March 2017, two months before the Robert Mueller special counsel even started. The FISA application was made public by the special counsel on July 21, 2018, partly because the media already had the FISA in circulation. The media had the application for sixteen months before it was made public, by the special counsel, one month after James Wolfe was indicted.
The last interesting point I would note is this paragraph in the Yahoo article:
“On June 12, 2018, just a week after Wolfe was indicted, the Washington Post published an article about Rambo’s meeting with Watkins, identifying him by his real name. Rambo, who never realized she had learned his name, was blindsided.
Rambo, the article reported, had told Watkins that “the administration was eager to investigate journalists and learn the identity of their confidential sources to stanch leaks of classified information.”
It’s obvious now that Ali Watkins was the source for that Washington Post article. Media friends in the Trump-Russia conspiracy narrative helping each other.
Obviously Watkins knew in December 2017 that her source in the SSCI was busted. Then Watkins finds out in February 2018 her records with Wolfe were in the hands of the FBI/DOJ. Watkins then finds out in June 2018 that Wolfe was indicted. Watkins then reaches out for help to her team at New York Times and Washington Post allies.
The wagon-circling media quickly throw the dirt of Jeffrey Rambo into the mix as chaff and countermeasures. A month later their fellow Lawfare travelers in the Mueller special counsel then release the FISA application to the public; more chaff and countermeasures. A never before seen, top secret classified FISA application, illegally in the hands of the media for the past 16 months, was now…. ipso facto… lawful to possess.
Funny how that happens.
The sequence is critical:
1. Adam Waldman text messages. (release date Feb 9, 2018)
2. Justice Dept. Letter to journalist Ali Watkins (release date Feb 13, 2018)
3. James Wolfe indictment (release date June 8, 2018)
4. FISC / Senate Judiciary Letter (public release April, 2020 – event date July 12, 2018) The letter from DOJ-NSD (Mueller Special Proseuctors) to the FISC is important.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 11, 2021 | Sundance | 126 Comments
I’m only posting this brief video from Joe Biden’s statement yesterday as yet another example of how ideological Democrats espouse support for democracy yet take action to nullify democracy they don’t like.
When the majority of American people articulate positions leftists support, democrats call that democracy. However, when the majority of American people articulate positions that leftists do not support, democrats call that extremism.
When questioned about what Joe Biden would do if the Senate passed legislation to remove his vaccine mandate passes the house of representatives, the White House said Thursday Biden would veto the bill and ignore it. Less than 24 hours later, Joe Biden was warning his audience about autocrats undermining democracy.
Nobody, and I mean n.o.b.o.d.y, ever calls out these people, specifically Democrats in leadership like Joe Biden for this hypocrisy.
I would remind everyone of another example given by Joe Biden in September.
In this next semi-coherent 90 second soundbite; the content of which flies over the head of the provider, Politico; Joe Biden is telling the media about his conversations with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Biden says that both Xi and Putin are “autocrats” who dictate to the citizens of their nations, and in conversation with them – those leaders have questioned the viability of ‘western democracy‘ in an era where polarization of the electorate is so extreme. Biden is calling them “autocrats” and trying to defend “democracy”…. ok, you with me? Now, WATCH:
These actual statements were muttered on September 11, by the same guy who just 36 hours earlier told the entire American population that he “has lost patience” with half the nation, and as an outcome, was going to FORCE a mandatory injection (COVID “vaccine”) into the arms of every citizen who wants to work in the United States.
Biden is literally decrying “autocratic governance”, while being the biggest autocratic executive this nation has ever seen. And not a single friggin’ journalist would challenge him to reconcile his position?
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 11, 2021 | Sundance | 184 Comments
This Neil Oliver monologue hits on many key aspects to the propaganda around COVID. As Oliver notes, while the elites were selling fear as a tool for their control over the proles, those same elites were partying, dancing and gathering last Christmas.
Looking forward, Oliver implies a resounding “f**k you” for Christmas 2021 as everyone should enjoy this holiday in the traditional spirit of the season, while dispatching the insufferable fear the elites attempt again. Stay with it, because these words get better as Mr. Oliver piles on the common sense, and cuts through the lies. WATCH:
Neil Oliver is correct. Hope and joy are the necessary human elements beyond all other facets of life. Give the gift of hope and joy to those you love by first reminding yourself of the gift that a loving God has given us all. It is too easy in our human sense to forget the biggest gift we have been granted, the gift of life. The ability to live and choose how we engage in the lives of others.
No politics or false sense of security can overwhelm the message of HOPE that a loving God has provided. No effort of man nor human disposition can surmount the greatest love of all. The message of Christ’s birth is bigger and greater than any legislative battle. “No power of hell, nor scheme of man” can come close to the purpose of God’s intent and love for you as a unique person qualified to receive that love.
Wrap yourself in the secure blanket of that unconditional love, and rejoice in the celebration of this Christmas with purpose. YOU are worth it.
Christ’s birth was the truest and purest proof of our value. Rejoice!
He left a throne to be born into a manger as a baby, to grow into a Man willing to lay down His everything for us. Rejoice!
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 