Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, setting the new target range at 4 percent to 4.25 percent. The Fed statement was clear, with one dissenter, Stephen Miran, who recently joined.
“Recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement.
The market was widely expecting a 25 basis point cut in rates, as our computer has been forecasting for months that any cut would be in September, not before. However, there were the typical groups of questionable analysts touting that a 50 basis point cut could lead to a more significant market rally.
With the prospect of war on the horizon and a sovereign debt crisis brewing in the EU, there are realistic expectations for a continued decline. The risk is that Trump will interfere in the Fed, leading to a loss of confidence worldwide, which would result in unrealistic interest policy into early 2026. There remains the risk of another cut during the next quarter.
Posted originally on Sep 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
President Donald Trump believes that companies should cease reporting on a quarterly basis and switch to semiannual reports instead. Trump said that the concept is “subject to SEC approval” and would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett also once voiced support for semiannual reporting. “In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth and sustainability,” the pair wrote in an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal in 2018.
The SEC currently has a 3-1 Republican voting majority, but why does this seem to be a bipartisan issue? The issue is global, in fact, as Norway’s sovereign wealth fund recently proposed switching to semiannual reporting, and the UK and Europe do not currently require quarterly reports. Providing the consumer and investor with less, infrequent information alludes to bad news. Companies would willingly share praise of quarterly earnings with the public if they were bullish on their future, but in the current stagflationary trend, companies are cautious. Those at the top are losing confidence in their company’s ability to meet or exceed expectations.
Dimon and Buffett argued that the public’s attention should be on the long-term results. That aligns with Buffett’s buy and hold strategy but does not work for most portfolios that require investment strategy changes based on incoming data. In Trump’s personal predicament, the price adjustments due to tariffs are a reason to halt quarterly reporting.
Still, lowering transparency raises market risk, and the markets do not respond well to volatility. Columbia Law Schoolpublished an article that looked at the 2017 regulatory adjustment on the Tel-Aviv Exchange (TASE) when small-cap firms switched from mandatory quarterly reports to semi-annual updates. “The stocks of firms that chose that option dropped an average of 2 percent in price in a window of (-5,+5) days,” the analysis found. “Conversely, the stock of firms that chose to continue quarterly reporting rose an average of 2.5 percent over an immediate window of (-5,+5) days.”
The study also noted that while compliance costs dropped by 19.8% by eliminating two annual reports, the firms that chose to maintain four annual reports did not see a significant change in audit fees. There was a clear trade-off between cost reduction and maintaining investor confidence, the study noted.
The US markets cannot be compared to the TASE, and that 2% reduction in investment would likely rise for US firms, as consumer confidence is absolutely paramount. The proposition of semi-annual reports stems from the belief that companies will be unable to provide optimistic earnings reports. Reducing reporting fees is not the concern, and the repercussions are vast as massive portfolio shifts would ensue as investors and money managers need to reduce risks and would be less likely to take short-term risks if the data is unavailable to them. Reducing transparency would shake up confidence in the markets overall, and as mentioned, capital does not like volatility.
Posted originally on CTH on September 14, 2025 | Sundance
Many people were thrilled with the nomination and eventual confirmation of Kash Patel to be Director of the FBI. However, with decades of researching the political weaponization of the FBI and against the known capabilities of the nominee, we were not part of the thrilled group.
The non-pretenders looked at the challenge, contrast the scope of work against the skillset of the person selected to confront the institutional corruption, and warned people there was more reason to be apprehensive than optimistic.
Do you remember us outlining how the various FBI field offices would be keeping Patel/Bongino tied up with busy work, and stuff to go on TV about.
That said, we don’t want him to fail, but Director Patel has walked himself into a gauntlet of consequence that will be difficult to exit given his lack of discernment – evidenced in the events surrounding the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
The people in control of FBI field operations (not Kash), set up their agency head by informing the boss a suspect was in custody.
After eating dinner at Rao’s, an embarrassed Kash Patel was then forced to retract his public statement, walking back his message that a suspect was in custody at 7:59 pm, a little over 1.5 hours later.
The FBI field operatives smiled. Egg applied as expected, it worked brilliantly.
Kash Patel couldn’t then turn to those who set him up with too much anger, because their defense was, “we were questioning a suspect, we didn’t tell you to go public with it – and as it turned out the suspect was cleared.”
It was a brilliant maneuver, likely intended to undermine his authority and position. It worked perfectly.
Did you see Kash Patel’s face the next day when he eventually did arrive in Utah and didn’t say a word at the microphone?
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National media and DC political opposition now runs with the “incompetent” narrative, albeit rightly deserved but for other bigger matters, and the leadership structure of the FBI is weakened.
The institutional elements in control pulled off a great hit. Well played FBI bad guys. Well played.
Perhaps, just perhaps, Director Patel will shift his position and recognize the scale of opposition inside the institution he keeps praising. [Although I doubt his ego will allow him to reset.]
Kash Patel has essentially neutered himself by falling prey to the most transparently obvious ploy of the intel operatives within the institution.
Now, the media has a narrative to enhance, and Director Patel is scheduled to be questioned in the Senate later this week. What comes next will be entirely the result of his own self harm.
Those Machiavellian FBI guys are cruel.
Every adverse operative within the FBI will be back channeling specific investigative information to the Democrat inquisitors in advance, so questions can be specifically formatted.
Whether he can see it or not, FBI Director Kash Patel is being set up by his own agency in collaboration with the Senate guards in DC.
Unfortunately, Kash Patel is now in a defensive mode trying to promote his image over the past 24-hours by retweeting positive articles about him as written by the sources he uses to deliver information, John Solomon (Tick-Tock) and Brooke Singman (Fox).
It’s all quite transparent, and simultaneously a hot mess. “The more he spoke of his honor, the faster we counted the spoons.”
I’m not sure if President Trump can see it unfolding, or if President Trump is simply trying to support his FBI director and simultaneously avoid collateral embarrassment. Either way, given the fortunate situation where the father of the assassin secured his son and turned him into police, President Trump is supporting the successful outcome.
There is a sense of familiarity, a feeling similar to NSA Director Mike Waltz, about it:
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Understand and accept this with great seriousness, there are no honorable “rank and file” inside this organization. Every member of the FBI is a participant in the weaponization of power and government. The members are jackboots recruited from ideological college campuses for exactly the purpose of supporting a Stasi-like police state.
Through the past several years, we have discovered how the FBI worked inside Twitter, Facebook and social media to control information, remove content and manipulate opinion on behalf of the U.S. government – all activity political. We have also learned the FBI took active measures to suppress information about the Hunter Biden laptop and control any negative consequences for the Biden regime – again, political.
These are not disputed realities.
The U.S. Dept of Justice and FBI are now political institutions that have abandoned their originating mission in order to become the domestic equivalent of the Soviet-era FSB. Their joint targeting mechanisms have been redesigned to support the interests of corrupt DC politicians, specifically the interests of DC.
Tangentially related: (1) What’s the status of the DC pipe bomber case? And (2) are the 40 FBI agents who worked on the Mueller investigation, still employed?
Posted originally on Sep 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Thailand has become a test case for the use of biometric data in every facet of life. Facial recognition data is required for any single transfer above 50,000 baht (around $1,580), daily transfers above 200,000 baht, and any international transfers from personal accounts. All major Thai banks, such as Bangkok Bank, Kasikorn (KBank), SCB, Krungthai, and Krungsri, require customers to submit biometric data, and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) provides the general guidelines that these banks must follow.
It may begin with banking and documentation, but the ultimate goal is to develop digital IDs that are stored on a centralized database. The board of Thailand’s National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) proposed that users must submit biometric data to register SIM cards. The rule went into effect in August and applies to everyone in Thailand, including tourists.
The Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), the Thai Red Cross Society, and the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) has implemented the use of biometric data to track undocumented persons. Health agencies claim the technology can identify the spread of disease and assist in providing humanitarian aid and medical services. The MOPH claims the technology is 99.75% accurate. According to the Department of Labour’s Bureau of Alien Workers Administration, over 1 million undocumented migrants were in the nation as of July 2025.
“The application of biometric technology not only improves healthcare, disease prevention and control, medical services, and humanitarian aid with accuracy and inclusivity, but also reflects the protection of human rights and dignity of undocumented people in Thailand. It also creates opportunities for education and research by Thai public health professionals to develop further benefits for the general population,” Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin stated.
The Thai Red Cross Society is a branch of the global Red Cross agency. Thailand’s Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) claims all personal data will be securely protected, but they have already begun sharing with international agencies.
Thailand adopted digital IDs back in 2023, but they were primarily mandatory for business at the time. Now, Thailand’s National Digital ID system (NDID) is now held by a private-public consortium that holds the identities of over 40 million people. The Thailand Digital Arrival Card (TDAC) became mandatory for all travelers on May 1, 2025. Citizens are technically not required to obtain a digital ID but it certainly makes life easier if one wants to access digital wallets, online banking, claim government benefits, and so forth.
The Thai government plans to expand Thailand’s digital ID policy to 1,000 public services within the next two years. All restrictive measures begin with a promise to guarantee safety. It appears optional, then convenient, before the measures are enforced through mandates. I know many people who have fled Thailand in recent years due to increased regulations and massive changes in taxation. Thailand is becoming a case study for the widespread use of biometric software, as government surveillance is becoming the new norm.
For almost two years, there has been a background conversation with a handful of people watching the Silicon Valley network closely and monitoring every move and position they take. They hold an entirely divergent set of motives that are not aligned with Making America Great Again behind this crew.
I’m simply saying for everyone to keep their eyes wide open, review THAT ARTICLE I just linked above, and put it in the context of the issues and discussions we have had on these pages. Remember, there are literally trillions at stake, and we have been duped too many times. The issues and the stakes in our nation are just too important.
The concern we have is about the “surveillance state”, and the creations of the Silicon Valley tech bros that are building out tools that can easily be weaponized as the contracts with the U.S. government are fulfilled. President Trump will not weaponize them, but the existing tools and the DHS track and trace enhancements being built by the tech team are threats to liberty.
Real ID connected to facial recognition, connected to personage, a digital identity and/or a track and trace capability is ultimately an assembled tech tool for control. Politically Exposed Persons are the most vulnerable.
Those who follow the deepest weeds of their constructs know that billionaire Elon Musk’s ability to have a public influence platform would not exist without the full support of billionaire Larry Ellison. They are absolute partners – mentor and protegee. The part that people are having a hard time accepting is the end goal, the motive behind that Ellison support.
My opinion is today the same as it was when the situation first started to surface. Think of how the Sea Island group positioned Ron DeSantis for his MAGA challenge in 2024. That was a long term plan that started years before DeSantis entered the primary. DeSantis took positions that were highly favored by President Trump supporters, and his network constructed an image that was intentional to ingratiate himself within the movement.
What we have researched with Elon Musk carries many of the same background datapoints and nuance. Musk takes popular positions to cover for some very un-MAGA proposals; the H1B issue is just one facet. Overall, a technological system of surveillance and control by a few tech oligarchs is well underway.
We must keep our eyes wide open. We must trust our instincts and differentiate between key issues that can impact us and our families, and the issues we support – but are not direct impacts on our lives. We want a big tent; we all want to see success for President Trump and the MAGA agenda, but we cannot achieve our goals if liberty is lost in the process.
The surveillance state diminishes liberty; it needs to be confronted as it surfaces.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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