Posted originally on Sep 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
College graduates throughout the world are facing record unemployment. The unemployment rate for recent graduates in the United States is nearly double that of the general population. College grads in the United Kingdom face a similar level of unemployment. The youth in Europe are in a far worse situation, and it is not uncommon for areas to see unemployment levels around 20% to 40%. Chinese and Indian cultures value higher education, but the youth in both nations are facing unemployment levels of up to 20%. College degrees no longer guarantee financial success.
One of Britain’s largest recruitment agencies is encouraging young adults to explore blue-collar positions. James Reed, chief executive of Reed, told Times Radio that he averaged 180,000 graduate job position openings three or four years ago, but that figure has declined to 55,000. “The direction of travel is what worries me. Some people might say, well, that’s your business. But every other business is saying the same thing, that far fewer graduate opportunities are available to young people,” he said. Job recruitment agency Indeed found a 33% annual reduction in available graduate jobs over the summer and that trend is expected to continue thanks to automation and increased business costs. “It’s like a white-collar recession, rather like the blue-collar recession of the 1980s. I recognise the same pattern in a way, when a lot of jobs are being hollowed out by automation. I’m thinking about factories [before] and offices now,” Reed also commented.
Gen Z comprises 30% of the global population. They were told that good grades and an advanced degree would provide them a head start in life. Instead, especially in the United States, these young adults are saddled with debt that they cannot pay off. Less than half of graduates can find jobs within their field of study.
Youth unemployment can become the catalyst for political unrest and even revolution, which is precisely what recently happened in Nepal. The youth are the future taxpayers, yet governments are destroying them before they even begin. Youth unemployment is a direct result of bad economic policies, taxation, and regulation that drive jobs offshore. Universities have turned into political indoctrination factories producing debt slaves rather than skilled workers. This generation has been robbed of opportunity, and history warns us that when the youth see no future, they rise up against the system.
Youth unemployment ties into the birth rate crisis as the number of deaths far outnumber births in nearly every developed nation, and therefore, there are not enough taxpayers to offset the decline. If they cannot find work, they certainly cannot afford a home. Only 9% of Gen Z adults in America owned homes as of 2024. Less than 15% of Gen Z can afford homes in the UK, compared to 63% of Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers. In Canada, youth are experiencing a similar level of home ownership, with rates above 15%. Europe varies widely but the market is largely inaccessible to Gen Z. The youth in South Korea are experiencing the lowest documented rate of home ownership among young adults at 2.5%.
The younger generation is questioning the entire system. They played into the system their entire lives and lost. Civil unrest always begins with the younger generation, who demand to be heard. When the youth see no path forward, they burn down the status quo. The younger generation in Nepal burned down Parliament and forced leaders to flee due to building resentment that grew into hatred for government overlords. Unemployment is expected to steepen as we enter the end of the next ECM cycle, and the youth will feel the brunt of the burden. History shows that the younger generations will not quietly accept defeat.
Posted originally on Sep 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
US GDP grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, leading the press to cheer a strong and robust economy. By design, the GDP calculation counts net exports as a positive. When imports collapse, GDP rises even though that is a signal of weakened consumer demand.
Consumer spending rose by 2.5%, rising 0.6% from Q1, and overperformed compared to the 1.6% estimate. Again, the underlying cause of that rise is not consumer confidence. The price of goods remains elevated, and consumers are spending more on less. Household debt is now at record highs across every area, from mortgages to credit cards and auto loans. It is an illusion that higher consumer spending indicates prosperity.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) accurately stated that the “primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a substraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.” This does not mean companies are simply purchasing domestically due to tariffs.
The GDP calculation, albeit better than anticipated, does not indicate long-term strength in the economy. The decline in imports has skewed the figure in favor of government so it looks as if policies are working and the US is somehow immune to the global economic decline. The US cannot experience meaningful growth when demand in declining due a loss of confidence and debt is rapidly accumulating.
Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Barack Obama will never miss an opportunity to juxtapose himself with Donald Trump as the pious president who preached peace. In reality, the extreme political divide of right v left began under Obama as he used divisive politics to split the nation into “us” vs “them.”
Obama was the first to label his political opponents as an “enemy,” as reported by the Washington Examiner. “Those extreme views were not in my White House,” Obama claimed in remarks to the Jefferson Society regarding the assassination of Charlie Kirk. “I wasn’t empowering them. I wasn’t putting the weight of the United States government behind them. When we have the weight of the United States government behind extremist views, we’ve got a problem.”
(Obama’s typical middle-class yacht)
Economic woes were blamed on the “top 1%,” a phrase that derived from Obama’s presidency following the 2008 financial crisis. “The gap between the wealthiest and the rest of us has never been wider,” he stated in 2011. He contrasted the struggles of “working families” with the “special interests” and “wealthy few” who benefited from tax loopholes and deregulation. “I believe in an America where opportunity is open to everyone—not just those at the top,” he preached during his first campaign against Mitt Romney. The Obama Administration was touted as the defender of ordinary “folks” who were suffering due to the greed of the “wealthy few,” a class that Obama himself is within.
“We don’t think government can solve all our problems, but we don’t think government is the source of all our problems—any more than are welfare recipients, or corporations, or unions, or immigrants, or gays, or any other group we’re told to blame for our troubles,” Obama stated during the 2012 Democratic National Convention where he pushed for Obama Care. “Government” was the same as marginalized groups like the LGBTQ+ community and immigrants, Obama declared, and anyone who disagreed with his policies was acting in a discriminatory manner. Closed borders? Racist! Voting against paying into Obamacare? Racist greed directed at marginalized communities.
Legacy media ran his rhetoric 24/7 across every platform, and that rhetoric has continued today into “progressive” ideology that aligns with socialist views. Donald Trump is certainly not the first nor the last president to take an “us” vs “them” stance. In contrast to Obama, Trump began his campaign by portraying government as the problem—drain the swamp and fire the judges. Notice how there has not been a wave of violent riots in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination. The “MAGA extremists” are vocal but not violent.
Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.
I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.
I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.
Please do not get discouraged.
Cheers
FDS
REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.
As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.
If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.
Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
China declined to make an official statement regarding Donald Trump’s change to the H-1B visa. Around 12% of such holders in the US are Chinese nationals. Instead, China announced that it will launch a new K-visa, expanding its 12 existing visas, to attract global talent.
“In a globalised world, cross-border flow of talents is instrumental in global technological and economic advancement,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated. “China welcomes talents from various sectors and fields across the world to come and find their footing in China for the progress of humanity and career success.”
The visa will take effect on October 1, 2025, and is designed to attract skilled professionals in engineering, technology, mathematics (STEM), and science. Applicants must have a bachelor’s degree in STEM from a recognized university or research institution, and employer sponsorship is not required.
Sorry, but top talent is not eager to work in China. China is already experiencing record levels of youth unemployment at 18.9% as of August 2025. Around 12.22 million university graduates in China entered the workforce this year, up from 430,000 in 2024, and the competition is intensifying as the number of available jobs declines.
China also produces over 77,000 STEM PhD graduates each year, nearly double that of the US. Naturally China would like to attract Indian graduates as they are receiving the bulk of the burden of the H-1B visa change and 34% of all graduates in India have a background in STEM. India excels in IT services, electronics, biotech, and software. China has more opportunities in AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and robotics.
However, China does offer a much higher salary for these workers than India. In fact, salaries in STEM in India are 2-3X lower compared to China despite working longer hours. China also offers more protections, such as medical benefits, paid leave, and retirement benefits.
The current flow of Indian graduates relocating to China is relatively low compared to those relocating to the US. Those who think US companies are xenophobic have not worked with China. The environment is not exactly welcoming to foreigners. China may take on additional workers who are denied access to the US workforce, but it will not be significant. Specific niches and fields may spark interest as China is becoming a superpower for clean energy and robotics. Yet, global talent will not flock to China for employment, and the K-visa in no way compares to the visa that provides a work opportunity in America–at this stage in time. The matter may be different as we approach the end of the Sixth Wave–2032–when China dethrones the US to become the financial capital of the world.
Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.
Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”
“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”
I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.
The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.
Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.
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